The Struggle for Supremacy: Can Trump Halt China’s Global Ascent?

[Cameroni]

10 minutes ago, NoDisplayName said:

  It's not a $400 billion market for China.  It's less than half that.  Much of it is goods assembled from Japanese, Korean and Taiwan Province components.  Given the size of those economies, this is more of an attack on them than it is on China.

 

No. China is an overproduction hub, it is, BY FAR, mostly Chinese companies producing and overproducing and exporting to the US. The Iphones, ok, a few other things, but for the greatest part, these are CHINESE products in the 400 billion USD basket. 

 

To pretend those are Iphones, Japanese or Korean cars, is just deluding yourself.

 

The rest of your post is just amateurish red herrings.  Things I never said.

[billd766]

1 hour ago, NoDisplayName said:

 

How much of that bigly number is actually foreign multinational profit?

 

Foreign companies use China's city-sized industrial zones to assemble and package their products for resale elsewhere, with much of the components being shipped in from Japan, Korea and Taiwan Province.

 

Consider Foxconn assembling their iphones using Chinese labor.  Phones are sold in the US for $1000 which is included in that $400 billion,  yet the Chinese keep only $7-30 per phone depending on model.

 

Loss of the US market, previously about 14% of exports, or around 3% of GDP, now probably around 5% or even less of exports, isn't going to be the majik bullet Trump thinks it will be.

 

Thus his latest brain fart, levying surcharges on any Chinese-built ship docking at US ports, regardless of who owns or operates it.  Add a couple $million per boat, up to 5x/year, plus $hundreds per container, plus $hundreds per vehicle for car carriers.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/17/trump-administration-announces-fees-on-chinese-ships-docking-at-us-ports.html

 

44DD grand chessmaster thinks adding more taxes on the US consumer will bring shipbuilding back to the US.  He simply looks at numbers..........China built more ships last year alone than the USA built since 1945...........so yeah, more taxes on Billy Bob will put all our Starbucks baristas back to work in the shipyards by Christmas.

 

Winning!©

And who will build all these wonderful US built ships at such short notice and with what steel?

 

Q. How much steel does the USA import annually?

 

The United States imported approximately 26.2 million metric tons of steel in 2024. This represents a 2.51% increase from 2023, but a decline compared to 2014 when imports were at a near-record high. The US is the world's largest steel importer, excluding the European Union. 

Here's a more detailed breakdown: 

2024: 26.2 million metric tons.

2023: 25.6 million metric tons.

2019: 26.3 million metric tons.

2018: 30.8 million metric tons.

2017: 34.6 million metric tons.

2016: 30.8 million metric tons.

2015: 34.5 million metric tons.

2014: 40.3 million metric tons.

The top sources for U.S. steel imports in 2024 were Canada, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Germany, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Netherlands, Trinidad and Tobago, Italy, and China. 

 

And which of these countries has Trump NOT slapped import tariffs on?

 

The price of imported steel to build those ships ahs risen by anywhere between 10% and 140% in the case of China.

 

Do Trump's MAGA supporters consider that, or do they think that they are still winning?

[Cameroni]

54 minutes ago, billd766 said:

And which of these countries has Trump NOT slapped import tariffs on?

 

The tariffs are on all countries, because the first trade war allowed China to evade tariffs by going via Mexico or Canada. Now China does not have that option anymore.

 

Trump learnt from the first trade war.

 

No escape for China this time.

[Paul Henry]

Cameroni. Some real facts:

ICT:

USA 134

EU    127

India  115

If you add the rest of the world you will see China can grow and survive without the USA

Discretionary spending:

USA 4.2%

EU    6.6%

[Gweiloman]

19 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

The tariffs are on all countries, because the first trade war allowed China to evade tariffs by going via Mexico or Canada. Now China does not have that option anymore.

 

Trump learnt from the first trade war.

 

No escape for China this time.

Are you sure you’re not Gordon Chang in disguise? You sure sound like him. And you are as equally wrong.

 

As for “China crawling to the negotiation table”, don’t hold your breath. China is slowly but surely tightening the screws on Trump. They have been anticipating such a trade war for years. Trump is starting to panic, it’s obvious from his demeanour and most recent answer to a journalist about whether China has been in touch. You know nothing about China is you think they are going to cave in to an idiot like Trump.

[Cameroni]

52 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

Are you sure you’re not Gordon Chang in disguise? You sure sound like him. And you are as equally wrong.

 

As for “China crawling to the negotiation table”, don’t hold your breath. China is slowly but surely tightening the screws on Trump. They have been anticipating such a trade war for years. Trump is starting to panic, it’s obvious from his demeanour and most recent answer to a journalist about whether China has been in touch. You know nothing about China is you think they are going to cave in to an idiot like Trump.

 

Tightening the screws on Trump, lol, what screws? China doesn't have the cards. Of course they've anticipated a trade war, only a brain-amputated squirrel wouldn't have, after all they've had one already when Trump was in power. Trump is starting to panic, dream on. Trump wins either way, if China comes to negotiate he will win, and if China refuses then China will lose 400 billion USD in market share and willl lose several points off its GDP.

 

Which is a major problem for China, as it already suffers from slowing domestic demand. And let's not forget its per capita  purchasing power is only 13,000 USD, whereas the USD's is 89,000 USD, so the people of China are already considerably worse off than those in the West with much lower purchasing power, only 79th in the world.

 

Factor in the real estate crisis, when China stupidly built condos for 1.4 bilion extra Chinese that nobody wants and which China now has to demolish to stop the rot in house prices.

 

Add in the fact that Chinese women are refusing to have babies creating a demographic time bomb of epic proportions.

 

Asian nations in SE Asia, and indeed elsewhere, are now terrified that China's overcapacity will mean a tsunami of Chinese cheap products will flood their markets. The EU, Turkey, Brazil have already put tariffs on China, more will follow no doubt.

 

China will run out of bullets long before America does. They know they can't win this. They will negotiate.

[NoDisplayName]

2 hours ago, Cameroni said:

Factor in the real estate crisis, when China stupidly built condos for 1.4 bilion extra Chinese that nobody wants and which China now has to demolish to stop the rot in house prices.

 

Look!  I found a videos!  On the Youtubes!

 

Videos of the same demolition shot at different angles were published by USA Today and China Observer.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-does-viral-video-show-china-destroying-unfinished-high-rises-1783119

[MicroB]

On 4/16/2025 at 2:01 PM, Sir Dude said:

China has way more problems internally than anyone knows... CCP is done, as the Chinese people are pissed-off with what is going on right now.

 

Not necessarily good for the ROTW. CCP won't be replaced by Westenr liberalism. Its replaced by Chinese Imperial Nationalism. 

 

The Wumao army ("50 cent Army") are online trolls paid to spread CCP propaganda, but loyal to the party line, whatever direction that takes. But now there is Ziganwu. These are not CCP loyalists. They are rabidly anti-Western, and view us as corrupt and depraved. They attack issues such as feminism, human rights, multiculturalism, democracy.

 

Of course, its possible the Ziganwu are playing a double game; they are employed to create an impression that there is political opposition to the CCP, but this opposition is frightening, expansionist, apocalyptic, so it becomes better the devil you know, because at least the CCP is predictable, rational.

 

Taiwanese attitudes to Hong Kong, in my opinion, are complex. Yes, they don't like the Communists, but they put the British below the Communists.. When HK was returned to China, Taiwanese people were pretty happy that now Chinese people govern Chinese people. The Taiwanese I know despise Hong Kong Chinese, as they feel they have too many "white" values.

 

When Chiang Kai Shek arrived in Taiwan, after the Japanese were ejected, he ordered all the graves containing Western POWs to be emptied. They didn't even allow a memorial to be erected until 1997. And yet, this is supposed to be the solidly pro-Western part of China.

[MicroB]

On 4/18/2025 at 2:53 AM, Gweiloman said:

 Whatever has China done to you to make you hate it so much, I wonder.

 

Maybe sliced his finger on one of those clockwork skeleton money boxes kids used to get in the 70s. As I recall, if you looked inside, they were made of recycled film canisters, mostly Fujifilm. Lethal adges on those tin toys.

[Gweiloman]

22 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

Tightening the screws on Trump, lol, what screws? China doesn't have the cards. Of course they've anticipated a trade war, only a brain-amputated squirrel wouldn't have, after all they've had one already when Trump was in power. Trump is starting to panic, dream on. Trump wins either way, if China comes to negotiate he will win, and if China refuses then China will lose 400 billion USD in market share and willl lose several points off its GDP.

 

Which is a major problem for China, as it already suffers from slowing domestic demand. And let's not forget its per capita  purchasing power is only 13,000 USD, whereas the USD's is 89,000 USD, so the people of China are already considerably worse off than those in the West with much lower purchasing power, only 79th in the world.

 

Factor in the real estate crisis, when China stupidly built condos for 1.4 bilion extra Chinese that nobody wants and which China now has to demolish to stop the rot in house prices.

 

Add in the fact that Chinese women are refusing to have babies creating a demographic time bomb of epic proportions.

 

Asian nations in SE Asia, and indeed elsewhere, are now terrified that China's overcapacity will mean a tsunami of Chinese cheap products will flood their markets. The EU, Turkey, Brazil have already put tariffs on China, more will follow no doubt.

 

China will run out of bullets long before America does. They know they can't win this. They will negotiate.

You keep repeating the same drivel over and over again without realising what it means. 
 

The complete loss of the US market of 400 billion means 3% of GDP. This is hardly several points off its GDP. But this won’t happen as America can’t do without Chinese products. Watch some videos about the recent Canton Fair and you will see how China is doing with the rest of the world.

 

With regards to purchasing power, you don’t seem to understand the concept of relativity. Chinese citizens don’t have to pay sky high exorbitant public services costs like healthcare, transportation, insurances etc. I can’t say for sure but I’m willing to bet that someone earning 13,000 in China probably has a better standard of living than someone earning 89,000 in the US. PPP in China is way ahead of America.

 

@NoDisplayName has suggested an alternative reason for the destruction of many apartments which I find more credible than your propagandised claim.

 

As for the population demographics, this may or may not be an issue but even if it is, it will only surface many years from now by which time many things would have been automated eliminating the need for much labour.

 

As for Asian nations being terrified, that’s more in your head than in reality.

 

America can’t win this trade war. China is the top trading nation for over 140 countries. There is no way these countries will cut off trade with China to support, as a Japanese politician put it, a delinquent kids’ extortion demands. The Japanese delegation has returned home with no deal. The US just doesn’t have the cards they thought they did. The only area in which they currently reign supreme are in chips but you can be sure that this is slowly but surely being eroded away. All its actions have clearly shown that they are “terrified” of China. Why? Because they are losing!

[Gweiloman]

23 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

Tightening the screws on Trump, lol, what screws? China doesn't have the cards. Of course they've anticipated a trade war, only a brain-amputated squirrel wouldn't have, after all they've had one already when Trump was in power. Trump is starting to panic, dream on. Trump wins either way, if China comes to negotiate he will win, and if China refuses then China will lose 400 billion USD in market share and willl lose several points off its GDP.

 

Which is a major problem for China, as it already suffers from slowing domestic demand. And let's not forget its per capita  purchasing power is only 13,000 USD, whereas the USD's is 89,000 USD, so the people of China are already considerably worse off than those in the West with much lower purchasing power, only 79th in the world.

 

Factor in the real estate crisis, when China stupidly built condos for 1.4 bilion extra Chinese that nobody wants and which China now has to demolish to stop the rot in house prices.

 

Add in the fact that Chinese women are refusing to have babies creating a demographic time bomb of epic proportions.

 

Asian nations in SE Asia, and indeed elsewhere, are now terrified that China's overcapacity will mean a tsunami of Chinese cheap products will flood their markets. The EU, Turkey, Brazil have already put tariffs on China, more will follow no doubt.

 

China will run out of bullets long before America does. They know they can't win this. They will negotiate.

 

[Paul Henry]

Trade wars.  There are only three senarios:

USA wins

China and rest of world win

No one wins

Result 66.6% chance US is stuffed anyway.

Trump don't hold your breath waiting for the Chinese or EU to beg for negotiations.

[Cameroni]

51 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

You keep repeating the same drivel over and over again without realising what it means. 
 

The complete loss of the US market of 400 billion means 3% of GDP. This is hardly several points off its GDP. But this won’t happen as America can’t do without Chinese products. Watch some videos about the recent Canton Fair and you will see how China is doing with the rest of the world.

 

With regards to purchasing power, you don’t seem to understand the concept of relativity. Chinese citizens don’t have to pay sky high exorbitant public services costs like healthcare, transportation, insurances etc. I can’t say for sure but I’m willing to bet that someone earning 13,000 in China probably has a better standard of living than someone earning 89,000 in the US. PPP in China is way ahead of America.

 

@NoDisplayName has suggested an alternative reason for the destruction of many apartments which I find more credible than your propagandised claim.

 

As for the population demographics, this may or may not be an issue but even if it is, it will only surface many years from now by which time many things would have been automated eliminating the need for much labour.

 

As for Asian nations being terrified, that’s more in your head than in reality.

 

America can’t win this trade war. China is the top trading nation for over 140 countries. There is no way these countries will cut off trade with China to support, as a Japanese politician put it, a delinquent kids’ extortion demands. The Japanese delegation has returned home with no deal. The US just doesn’t have the cards they thought they did. The only area in which they currently reign supreme are in chips but you can be sure that this is slowly but surely being eroded away. All its actions have clearly shown that they are “terrified” of China. Why? Because they are losing!

 

The fact that you claim the Chinese destruction of apartments is "propaganda" clearly shows you are in denial and in the dark. If you had read his link the fact check said it was "true", and of course, it is true that China has stupidly overproduced housing which stands empty. The Ghost cities are real. Chinese house prices are falling. This is all real, even if you want to close your eyes to it, it is still there. It was a massive mistake by the Chinese to overproduce housing to this degree, but they can't help themselves, overproduction seems to be in their DNA. A very stupid thing to do, house prices are falling in China.

 

Equally your claim that ASEAN countries are not terrified of a tsunami of Chinese products coming their way, now that the US is closed for them, I am afraid it's not "in my head", I saw an interview with an Indonesian trade minister. A Thai official said similar things. This Chinese tendency to overproduce has already resulted in China dumping products cheaply in these countries. In fact China has destroyed the Indonesian garment industry with its cut price avalanche of cheap fabrics. So tariffs on China may well be on the card in the ASEAN region fairly soon.

 

China has not just lost 400 billion USD of American market, the EU has slapped tariffs on China. So have Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia and many others. The reason being China's dumping of underpriced prodcuts in those markets. The overproduction is becoming a problem for China that is larger than the US.

 

I take your point about prices being lower in China in some regions that is of course so, though I was in Shanghai and it wasn't exactly cheap. But yes, money will go further in many other Chinese regions, I am sure you're right on that. But you cannot deny there is a clear structural inequality in the Chinese population, there are giant swathes of dirt poor peasant populations in China who live in a poverty we cannot imagine in the West. The peasants JD Vance spoke off, the migrant labourers, they are real.

 

Fair point, the true ramifications of Chinese women refusing to have children will take some time to manifest, but even now the  lower domestic demand indicates that already the growth of the aging population is having some effect.This is not a unique problem in the world of course, but let's not pretend it doesn't afflict China as well.

 

America will win this trade war. Yes, China has done very well in trade so far, but its overproduction has destroyed many domestic markets, particularly in Asia. Nobody wants to cut trade with China completely, however, many countries, not just the US, but many others, including the EU, Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia, want to limit trade with China, due to dumping practices by the Chinese. 

 

The Americans don't just reign supreme in chips, in pharmaceuticals too, six of the top ten companies are American, including the very largest ones. In consumer electronics and software too the US dominate.

 

Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft are the highest-valued companies in the world at the end of 2024.

 

Dominance of US corporations continues: 62 of the 100 most expensive companies in the world are based in the USA.

 

 

"The latest analysis of market capitalization of companies, conducted by the auditing and consulting firm EY Switzerland, shows that despite strong geopolitical tensions and a subdued global economy, the stock market value of the 100 most expensive publicly traded companies in the world increased by 25 percent over the past year....Clearly leading in this area are companies from the USA: Of the 24 technology companies in the top 100, 18 are headquartered in the USA.

 

Overall, US companies dominate the ranking – at the end of 2024, 62 US corporations are in the list of the highest-valued companies in the world. Of the ten most expensive companies, nine are headquartered in the USA. 

 

https://www.ey.com/en_ch/newsroom/2025/01/us-corporations-dominate-global-stock-markets-europe-and-asia-lag-far-behind

 

This is despite China doing so well. The riches of the USA are beyond anything the Chinese have achieved. 

 

America will win this trade war.

[KhunLA]

To the title .. No, nobody can stop CN's dominance, as long as they are producing most of the products for your companies headquartered in you own country, that subs all the manufacturing out.

 

That's exactly what Trump is trying to reverse.  Though he'll fail getting the results everyone wants to see, yesterday, and may lose control of Congress mid term.  Then you're back to the total control of the deep state again.

 

Be careful what you wish for .... Som nam naa

[John Drake]

Can Trump Halt China’s Global Ascent?

 

Trump cannot. A deft, strategic thinking and knowledgeable leader could.

[Eric Loh]

10 minutes ago, John Drake said:

Can Trump Halt China’s Global Ascent?

 

Trump cannot. A deft, strategic thinking and knowledgeable leader could.

You can ditto all that you said about Trump winning the trade war with China. 

[NoDisplayName]

4 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

The fact that you claim the Chinese destruction of apartments is "propaganda" clearly shows you are in denial and in the dark. If you had read his link the fact check said it was "true", and of course, it is true that China has stupidly overproduced housing which stands empty. The Ghost cities are real. Chinese house prices are falling. This is all real, even if you want to close your eyes to it, it is still there. It was a massive mistake by the Chinese to overproduce housing to this degree, but they can't help themselves, overproduction seems to be in their DNA. A very stupid thing to do, house prices are falling in China.

 

Equally your claim that ASEAN countries are not terrified of a tsunami of Chinese products coming their way, now that the US is closed for them, I am afraid it's not "in my head", I saw an interview with an Indonesian trade minister. A Thai official said similar things. This Chinese tendency to overproduce has already resulted in China dumping products cheaply in these countries. In fact China has destroyed the Indonesian garment industry with its cut price avalanche of cheap fabrics. So tariffs on China may well be on the card in the ASEAN region fairly soon.

 

China has not just lost 400 billion USD of American market, the EU has slapped tariffs on China. So have Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia and many others. The reason being China's dumping of underpriced prodcuts in those markets. The overproduction is becoming a problem for China that is larger than the US.

 

I take your point about prices being lower in China in some regions that is of course so, though I was in Shanghai and it wasn't exactly cheap. But yes, money will go further in many other Chinese regions, I am sure you're right on that. But you cannot deny there is a clear structural inequality in the Chinese population, there are giant swathes of dirt poor peasant populations in China who live in a poverty we cannot imagine in the West. The peasants JD Vance spoke off, the migrant labourers, they are real.

 

Fair point, the true ramifications of Chinese women refusing to have children will take some time to manifest, but even now the  lower domestic demand indicates that already the growth of the aging population is having some effect.This is not a unique problem in the world of course, but let's not pretend it doesn't afflict China as well.

 

America will win this trade war. Yes, China has done very well in trade so far, but its overproduction has destroyed many domestic markets, particularly in Asia. Nobody wants to cut trade with China completely, however, many countries, not just the US, but many others, including the EU, Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia, want to limit trade with China, due to dumping practices by the Chinese. 

 

The Americans don't just reign supreme in chips, in pharmaceuticals too, six of the top ten companies are American, including the very largest ones. In consumer electronics and software too the US dominate.

 

Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft are the highest-valued companies in the world at the end of 2024.

 

Dominance of US corporations continues: 62 of the 100 most expensive companies in the world are based in the USA.

 

 

"The latest analysis of market capitalization of companies, conducted by the auditing and consulting firm EY Switzerland, shows that despite strong geopolitical tensions and a subdued global economy, the stock market value of the 100 most expensive publicly traded companies in the world increased by 25 percent over the past year....Clearly leading in this area are companies from the USA: Of the 24 technology companies in the top 100, 18 are headquartered in the USA.

 

Overall, US companies dominate the ranking – at the end of 2024, 62 US corporations are in the list of the highest-valued companies in the world. Of the ten most expensive companies, nine are headquartered in the USA. 

 

https://www.ey.com/en_ch/newsroom/2025/01/us-corporations-dominate-global-stock-markets-europe-and-asia-lag-far-behind

 

This is despite China doing so well. The riches of the USA are beyond anything the Chinese have achieved. 

 

America will win this trade war.

 

Gish gallop

 

The Gish gallop is a rhetorical technique where a person overwhelms their opponent in a debate by presenting a rapid series of numerous arguments, often lacking accuracy or strength, making it difficult for the opponent to respond to all of them. This strategy prioritizes the quantity of arguments over their quality, often leading to confusion and misrepresentation.

 

Padding your walls of text with repurposed anecdotes and recycled propaganda won't change minds.............or reality.

[Gweiloman]

3 hours ago, NoDisplayName said:

 

Gish gallop

 

The Gish gallop is a rhetorical technique where a person overwhelms their opponent in a debate by presenting a rapid series of numerous arguments, often lacking accuracy or strength, making it difficult for the opponent to respond to all of them. This strategy prioritizes the quantity of arguments over their quality, often leading to confusion and misrepresentation.

 

Padding your walls of text with repurposed anecdotes and recycled propaganda won't change minds.............or reality.

I’m not going to bother debating with him anymore, partly because of this Gish gallop technique (never heard of it before, thanks) and partly because he’s just putting things out there as facts when they are most likely a figment of his imagination. 
 

He’s convinced the whole world will succumb to Trumps’ demands. Lets see, time will tell, although every indication at the moment points to the contrary.

[NoDisplayName]

1 hour ago, Gweiloman said:

I’m not going to bother debating with him anymore, partly because of this Gish gallop technique (never heard of it before, thanks) and partly because he’s just putting things out there as facts when they are most likely a figment of his imagination. 
 

He’s convinced the whole world will succumb to Trumps’ demands. Lets see, time will tell, although every indication at the moment points to the contrary.

 

Gish was a creationist.

 

A Gish gallop is a rhetorical tactic in which a debater quickly runs through an extended series of falsehoods, misrepresentations, and shoddy arguments that are impossible to refute in the context of the debate format. The term was coined in 1994 by anthropologist Eugenie Scott, then the director of the National Center for Science Education, and named after young-Earth creationist Duane Gish, who was fond of using the technique in debates with scientists over evolution. Gish did not invent the technique, which is as old as debate itself.

 

https://www.wordorigins.org/big-list-entries/gish-gallop

 

The point is to inundate the opponent with a stream of talking points meant to confuse the audience, not giving the opponent time to debunk each falsehood.

 

They are not figments of the imagination, but rather simply items on a script.  They exist as ideas, but not necessarily in reality.  There are websites to link to, with articles discussing reports containing paraphrased quotes by anonymous sources.

 

List ten Falun Gong talking points, opponent debunks the first, respond with ten more talking points, or link to dozens of propaganda videos produced or funded by Falun Gong and distributed by one of their many Youtube channel cutouts.