Analysis Rising Tensions: Is Full-Scale War Looming on Thailand-Cambodia Border?

[GroveHillWanderer]

20 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

Yesterday I asked the the Mrs how far from Hua Hin' to the nearest Cambodian' border.. she said Oh! its very very far good job we moved from Chiang Mai that is very close.  

 

Turns out its 110 km 69 miles by sea drone or cruise missile so hoping the F16 pilots had a different geography teacher to us.

It's not 110 km from Hua Hin to the nearest point on the Cambodian border. It's actually closer to 280km.

 

 

It's over 110km just to Pattaya.

[ericthai]

On 7/25/2025 at 1:07 AM, spidermike007 said:

One potential way to deescalate the situation would be to find a reason to lock up Thaksin and his rather ridiculous daughter. An olive branch. They started it after all, at least this time around. 

 

Neither side has much to gain by an escalation however of the two I would consider Cambodia to be a bit more maniacal as it's run by genocidal, thieving numbskulls. Having said that if this were to escalate Cambodia is in for a serious butt kicking. 

When did Hun Sen announce that he would stop things if Thaksin is put in jail?

 

How do you figure Thakins not being In jail caused this? Hun sen could care less about Thai politics.  This is about land and this has been an issue for over a decade.  Last time this happened Thaksin wasn’t in Thailand and at that time Hue Sen and Thaksin were still friends . 

[Derek B]

On 7/25/2025 at 7:27 AM, JAG said:

It also has a very significant signature when fired, which would make it vulnerable to counter battery fire or air attack.

A counter attack which appears to not have been effective if it took place at all.

With Thailand's military might this conflict should already be over with all rocket launches destroyed.

 

[newbee2022]

On 7/25/2025 at 6:22 AM, webfact said:

Composite image courtesy of Sima Rath

 

From 2011 Clashes to 2025 Turmoil: Strategic Insights

 

Background: A Decade Ago

 

In 2011, the Thai-Cambodian relations hit a boiling point. Abhisit Vejjajiva's government faced nationalist pressure over the disputed 4.6-square-kilometer area around the Preah Vihear Temple. Cambodia's unilateral World Heritage Site registration ignited this conflict, leading to intense clashes that rocked both nations.

 

2011 Crisis Overview

 

January: Seven Thai citizens were arrested, escalating tensions.

4-7 February: Heavy weapon clashes near the Preah Vihear and Phu Makhua involved fatalities and property damage.

April: Battles erupted at Ta Muean Thom and Ta Kwai, lasting several days.

28 April: Cambodia petitioned the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

18 July: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ordered the withdrawal of troops from the disputed zone.

2025: Heightened Tensions Erupt

 

On 24 July 2025, tensions reignited, threatening to surpass past conflicts. Clashes erupted at Ta Muean Thom in Surin, spreading to the Preah Vihear in Sisaket.

 

 

Cambodia Initiates Fire: Reports confirm Cambodian forces encroached and attacked Thai troops.
Landmine Injuries: Two Thai soldiers were injured, one losing a leg, amid accusations of new Cambodian landmines.

Thai Retaliation: Artillery was deployed to defend sovereignty.

Diplomatic Fallout: Thailand expelled the Cambodian envoy, and Cambodia downgraded diplomatic ties.
Border Closures: Checkpoints at Chong Bok, Chong Chom, Ta Muean Thom, and Ta Kwai were shut to control the situation.

 

Rocket Attack Escalates Conflict

 

Cambodian forces allegedly launched BM21 rockets at Ban Jorakhe, Surin, resulting in one civilian death and severe injuries, including children. A similar incident at a petrol station in Sisaket injured numerous people, igniting pressure on the Thai government to respond.

 

Thailand's International Defence Stance

 

The Thai military claims that its actions align with international law, specifically the UN Charter's Article 51 on self-defence. The Foreign Ministry has briefed the UN Security Council (UNSC), stressing that attacks are solely military-focused and cultural heritage sites are safeguarded.

 

 

Potential Full-Scale War: Looming Threat

 

High Escalation Risk: Repeated intrusions and rocket strikes on civilians may push Thailand towards intensified military measures.

Negotiation Hurdles: ASEAN or ICJ interventions may falter due to internal dynamics in Thailand and Cambodia, potentially delaying diplomatic resolutions.

War Prospects: Who Holds the Advantage?

 

Thailand's Strengths:

Thailand's strengths include its superior military capabilities, particularly its air power and long-range artillery.

The proximity to Thai communities provides robust logistical support.

Likely global support if perceived defensively.

Thailand's Challenges:

Rugged terrain limits heavy weapon efficacy.

Political pressures may deter prolonged military engagement.

Cambodia's Strengths:

The country boasts established positions and pre-laid mines.

Diplomatic ties with nations like China.

Cambodia's Challenges:

Cambodia faces challenges due to its inferior military strength.
Complex logistics.

Risk of global condemnation if seen as the aggressor.

Conclusion: Could This Ignite a Major Conflict?

 

The 2025 Thai-Cambodian border situation is perilously close to escalating into a limited war. While Thailand's military edge is clear, political fragility is a critical weakness. Conversely, Cambodia leverages psychological tactics despite battlefield disadvantages. Without controlled escalation, both nations could face their most significant conflict in decades.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from Siam Rath 2025-07-25

 

 

Would be a better research in history from 1958-1962, when International Court decided already that this temple belongs to Cambodia. 

Unfortunately, Thailand didn't and does not respect the law.

[hotandsticky]

1 minute ago, newbee2022 said:

Would be a better research in history from 1958-1962, when International Court decided already that this temple belongs to Cambodia. 

Unfortunately, Thailand didn't and does not respect the law.

 

 

It's not just about the Preah Vihear Temple

[Derek B]

16 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

It's not 110 km from Hua Hin to the nearest point on the Cambodian border. It's actually closer to 280km.

 

 

It's over 110km just to Pattaya.

nice mapping program - I was looking for something like this.

[Derek B]

If I had been better informed by local Thai gf & family I would of built a house with a very small south facing elevation and placed my bedroom & study on the northern end of the property.

They seemed to value their Khmer roots - not sure about that now, I guess the locals on both sides of the border no not welcome this conflict.

Lucky we sold the cows 2 weeks ago.

 

BTW nearest shell or missile landed 3 km from the house (I am told).

The remaining close family that did not do a runner at the start are now 130km north of the border.

[paul1804]

On 7/25/2025 at 7:49 AM, MikeandDow said:

Not a chance !!!  the big boss (china) will stop this 

So their scam centre's can get back to scamming people!!!!!

[NoshowJones]

On 7/25/2025 at 1:14 PM, outsider said:

 

He and his brainless daughter. 

I have no love for Thaksin, but his "brainless" daughter has University degree's, not like a certain other unelected PM who ruled Thailand for nine years with only a Military Academy education.

[NoshowJones]

On 7/25/2025 at 1:49 PM, Iron Tongue said:

 

Yes.

From reading this thread, most posters don't understand that the Thai and Cambodians have been traditional enemies for 700 years.   Just because it's 2025 does not mean that one wrong move won't spark a full blown war at a scale not seen since 1979.  

 

China can end a war, but they'd gain more "prestige" if they let the killing get really bloody before stepping-in so they'd look even better in the eyes of the world.  

How can China look "even better in the eyes of the world"? They started a pandemic which created havoc world wide. I don't think the rest of the world will ever forget that.

[Mario Cosmopolite]

19 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

It's not 110 km from Hua Hin to the nearest point on the Cambodian border. It's actually closer to 280km.

 

 

It's over 110km just to Pattaya.

160km to Pattaya (I'm just reviewing my holiday plans).

[Mario Cosmopolite]

Following on my post above I asked ChatGPT: what capability does Cambodia have to strike targets inside Thailand and what is their range. A table will be helpful?

 

They produced this. So as long as I take my umbrella to protect me from the MIGs I should be OK.

[GroveHillWanderer]

4 hours ago, Derek B said:

nice mapping program - I was looking for something like this.

It's just Google Earth.

[Burma Bill]

On 7/25/2025 at 7:29 PM, Sir Dude said:

On a local level in ASEAN, Cambodia is no match for Thailand militarily... Thailand can and should wipe the floor with them. Cambodia has targeted civilian targets because they have the old soviet weapon systems that can't hit a barn door at 200 meters. This is a good chance for Thailand to show it's power and put the scumbags in Cambodia in their place... do it.

 

For reference (Google)

 

Recent reports indicate that Cambodia's military is largely equipped with Chinese-made weapons, including artillery, rockets, and helicopters. (which have capabilities of hitting barn doors at long distance!)

[ChipButty]

Thailand should start bombing Phnom Penh, just to let them know we can easily reach you, 

[oustaristocrats]

On 7/25/2025 at 2:36 AM, Mitkof Island said:

There is one person responsible for this mess. If he was in prison where he should be none of this would have ever happened besides numerous other things.

 

Exactly, this is the truth. The ego of one person incl his elite clan is the single root cause of everything bad in the country 

[kiwikeith]

On 7/25/2025 at 7:36 AM, Mitkof Island said:

There is one person responsible for this mess. If he was in prison where he should be none of this would have ever happened besides numerous other things.

Aljerzera talk about Thaksin and the leaked conversation saying could this have been the start of this. 

Meanwhile 800 Cambodian soldiers reported killed  ,on the 25th, has to be fake news  ,

Plenty of tourists at Suvarnabhumi today, Thailand and Cambodia have to get over this sensibly. 

Kid's playing with rockets and drones not needed either side. 

[DezLez]

1 hour ago, ChipButty said:

Thailand should start bombing Phnom Penh, just to let them know we can easily reach you, 

Sad warmongering post!

PS;  Who is the "we"?

[ExpatOilWorker]

[Geoff914]

8 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

 

Must have gone to Vanessa Feltz to get those battle fatigues. You need to be British to get that.

[Geoff914]

8 hours ago, newbee2022 said:

Would be a better research in history from 1958-1962, when International Court decided already that this temple belongs to Cambodia. 

Unfortunately, Thailand didn't and does not respect the law.

Actually I am going to follow this with interest to see how Cambodia's backer China reacts to Cambodia's legality to occupy the land. Given China sticking two fingers up to international courts ruling on accessing the South China Sea.

[Geoff914]

2 minutes ago, Geoff914 said:

Actually I am going to follow this with interest to see how Cambodia's backer China reacts to Cambodia's legality to occupy the land. Given China sticking two fingers up to international courts ruling on accessing the South China Sea.

And annexing Tibet

[kwilco]

1 minute ago, Geoff914 said:

Actually I am going to follow this with interest to see how Cambodia's backer China reacts to Cambodia's legality to occupy the land. Given China sticking two fingers up to international courts ruling on accessing the South China Sea.

Thailand has a lot to lose here – if the conflict extends to Koh Kood and the Eastern Gulf, it will severely impact tourism. Apparently, visitor numbers are down on this time last year, and all over social media are people asking if it's safe to go to Thailand.

Thailand cannot afford this to go on any longer

[kwilco]

China has massive investments in industry and infrastructure in Thailand and will want to protect this – they also have a huge amount of investment and influence in Cambodia. They have more influence and interests than any nation, so what they say will go.

[ronnie50]

On 7/26/2025 at 11:46 AM, ChipButty said:

If Prayuth Chan-ocha had still been in charge none if this would have happened, 

All of this is happening precisely because the Thai ultra-conservatives want the army/right-wing authoritarians back in charge. This conflict was not a coincidence, it was and is a means to an end - Thai style.

[Geoff914]

31 minutes ago, kwilco said:

Thailand has a lot to lose here – if the conflict extends to Koh Kood and the Eastern Gulf, it will severely impact tourism. Apparently, visitor numbers are down on this time last year, and all over social media are people asking if it's safe to go to Thailand.

Thailand cannot afford this to go on any longer

If international pressure to close the scam centres was brought onto Cambodia that would be 40% of its GDP gone overnight. Who has the most to lose here, Thailand or Cambodia?

[Geoff914]

24 minutes ago, kwilco said:

China has massive investments in industry and infrastructure in Thailand and will want to protect this – they also have a huge amount of investment and influence in Cambodia. They have more influence and interests than any nation, so what they say will go.

Invested in the scam centres? And China isn't one to lecture on sovereignty rights.

[newbee2022]

38 minutes ago, Geoff914 said:

Actually I am going to follow this with interest to see how Cambodia's backer China reacts to Cambodia's legality to occupy the land. Given China sticking two fingers up to international courts ruling on accessing the South China Sea.

Well, look around. What is International Law and Courts worth for.?

USA do not accept any other Court outside USA. So even their soldiers could commit war crimes and will not be prosecuted.

I'm afraid we will see this in South China Sea very soon concerning the Philippines.

[kwilco]

2 minutes ago, Geoff914 said:

If international pressure to close the scam centres was brought onto Cambodia that would be 40% of its GDP gone overnight. Who has the most to lose here, Thailand or Cambodia?

Do you have the figures for that?

AFAIA – the Cambodian economy is an open market system with rapid growth, particularly in the last decade, driven by tourism, manufacturing, real estate, and construction. It is, of course, marred by all-pervading corruption, but this is not that different from Thailand – both have repressive and undemocratic regimes. Tourism is a key driver in both economies: in Cambodia, nearly 10% but in Thailand, it represents a huge 20% – so they have much more to lose.

[kwilco]

5 minutes ago, Geoff914 said:

Invested in the scam centres? And China isn't one to lecture on sovereignty rights.

 I think they are – the borders we live in were largely set up in the 19th and early 20th centuries by Western colonial powers – their influence is very much on the wane thanks to people like Trump and there is likely to be worldwide criticism as such