🤣🤣Who need a Circus with clowns when we have Thai politics!!! 🥳🤡🤣

18 hours ago, bannork said:

Everyone knows that Bhumjaithai are held to a 4 months contract. 

Verbal promises in politics aren't a 'contract'. People's Party helped Anutin get to be PM. Now, as they are not part of his coalition, and as he no longer needs them, there is nothing they can do to make him keep - what you call - his 'contract'. Wait 2-3 months and see if you're right.

2 hours ago, harryviking said:

🤣🤣Who need a Circus with clowns when we have Thai politics!!! 🥳🤡🤣

Or Trump....

33 minutes ago, ronnie50 said:

Verbal promises in politics aren't a 'contract'. People's Party helped Anutin get to be PM. Now, as they are not part of his coalition, and as he no longer needs them, there is nothing they can do to make him keep - what you call - his 'contract'. Wait 2-3 months and see if you're right.

if they vote against Bhumjaithai in Parliament, along with PT, the government will fall.

 

18 minutes ago, bannork said:

if they vote against Bhumjaithai in Parliament, along with PT, the government will fall.

 

Yes I think so too. But how long will they wait to see if Anutin keeps his promise? I figure they (PP and PT) will have a no-confidence motion only when PP realizes there will be no referendum on the constitution (Anutin will drag his feet and maybe call for a drafting committee, but that will be a stalling tactic, IMO), and no election date called. I reckon it will be late November when that all hits the fan. 

55 minutes ago, ronnie50 said:

Verbal promises in politics aren't a 'contract'. People's Party helped Anutin get to be PM. Now, as they are not part of his coalition, and as he no longer needs them, there is nothing they can do to make him keep - what you call - his 'contract'. Wait 2-3 months and see if you're right.

 

Verbal promises ... are you sure?   ... i thought anutin showed a written agreement at a press conference. if i’m mistaken, please feel free to correct me ... 

While Chuvit is correct that Anutin was a terrible choice and has never had the slightest interest of the Thai people at heart, he's a bit naive in saying that someone else would have been a better steward and would have considered the interest of the common Thai. Has that ever happened here?

 

Anyone who had any affiliation with the last coup should have been automatically disqualified, they were a disaster and set the nation back dramatically. 

3 minutes ago, motdaeng said:

 

Verbal promises ... are you sure?   ... i thought anutin showed a written agreement at a press conference. if i’m mistaken, please feel free to correct me ... 

Maybe he did, dunno. But you really think that would be worth the paper it's printed on? Back of a napkin type thing? Also, PP realizes there's now been a significant backlash to them and they are in damage control mode now - various hi profile members of the party saying they were aware of the risks that Anutin's party can't be trusted.. then they make up excuses for the actions of backing him - as opposition..

This could well be a smarter move by the PP than they are being given credit for. They are trying to exercise a degree of influence over events while at the same time avoiding possible disbandment. Anutin is no fool, and he recognises the voting power of the PP. He will be working overtime to bring PP into the mainstream without triggering an adverse reaction from his backers in the establishment. For all the the differing views being expressed here only time will tell how this works out.

34 minutes ago, ronnie50 said:

Maybe he did, dunno. But you really think that would be worth the paper it's printed on? Back of a napkin type thing? Also, PP realizes there's now been a significant backlash to them and they are in damage control mode now - various hi profile members of the party saying they were aware of the risks that Anutin's party can't be trusted.. then they make up excuses for the actions of backing him - as opposition..

i see what you mean and i partly agree with you ...

 

but about the written agreement with the PP: anutin is part (owner-family) of the sin-thai group, a billion-dollar business ... i assume that in his business world, contracts cannot just be broken at will ... but well, this is thailand! if it really comes to that point, the PP can still try to enforce the contract through legal channels ...

 

PP had to take that risk with BJT, even though many people don’t like it ... in politics sometimes you have to make compromises if you want to achieve a long-term goal ... 

Apparently Anutin showed up today in his Rolls Royce. That's sending a deliberate signal - you know who his constituency is - and who his constituency is not. Another one of his pals, the convicted heroin dealer/politician/Minister, also has a Rolls. He used to park his in front of the Ministry.

PP will split because this decision ....as it is absolutely not their party  DNA... staying in opposition ....but supporting the ruling gov. 

Only in Siam 😲...

If they do dissolve parlianment and have new elections in a few months, then okay. However, things often don't work out how these types say so. I'm glad Thaksin is gone, but Anutin is someone I think isn't good for Thailand, or anyone else, in general. I hope the PP gets their election soon and wins and something new can happen here

10 minutes ago, Sir Dude said:

If they do dissolve parlianment and have new elections in a few months, then okay. However, things often don't work out how these types say so. I'm glad Thaksin is gone, but Anutin is someone I think isn't good for Thailand, or anyone else, in general. I hope the PP gets their election soon and wins and something new can happen here

For the Thaksin haters, they will find out Anutin is much worse. PP will be disbanded or in some ways made unabled to contest next elections. Just you see and I will be back to say I told you so

 

I thought their support was conditional on Anutin dissolving parliament within four months........which strikes as very dodgy to say the least......he'll now work to build a coalition in such a way that he can ignore that promise.

53 minutes ago, motdaeng said:

but about the written agreement with the PP: anutin is part (owner-family) of the sin-thai group, a billion-dollar business ... i assume that in his business world, contracts cannot just be broken at will ... but well, this is thailand! if it really comes to that point, the PP can still try to enforce the contract through legal channels ...

1) contracts cannot just be broken at will - ask Carlsberg about that one!

 

2) PP can still try to enforce the contract through legal channels - I am certain that Anutin, as the Scion of the establishment will have no worries on that score!

 

PP have been played, they must be realising this. They will be rubbed out, removed from the political scene before the 4 months are up.

There used to be a poster who said he doesn't trust Thanathorn and his various reincarnations to be any different from the rest of Thai politicians until he has seen factual proof.  In his opinion,  they are Thais all the same, share the same culture,  the same values,  the same greed, the same corruption,  the same contempt for anybody lower on the social ladder than oneself. 

We got some factual proof now.

18 minutes ago, JAG said:

1) contracts cannot just be broken at will - ask Carlsberg about that one!

 

2) PP can still try to enforce the contract through legal channels - I am certain that Anutin, as the Scion of the establishment will have no worries on that score!

 

PP have been played, they must be realising this. They will be rubbed out, removed from the political scene before the 4 months are up.

possible ... but i wonder how can you be so sure with your prediction? are you a former politician? .... 🤔 

1 hour ago, Sir Dude said:

If they do dissolve parlianment and have new elections in a few months, then okay. However, things often don't work out how these types say so. I'm glad Thaksin is gone, but Anutin is someone I think isn't good for Thailand, or anyone else, in general. I hope the PP gets their election soon and wins and something new can happen here

I think most hope for that. But if recent history is anything to go by - either the establishment-compliant courts or the armed wing won't allow a progressive party to assume power. The former are of scared of the latter as it poses a threat to the wealth and privilege of some 500 families - and that of their inner/outer circles of influence.

1 hour ago, JAG said:

PP have been played, they must be realising this. They will be rubbed out, removed from the political scene before the 4 months are up.

Gotta wonder if the party is still united at this stage...there must be many who are outraged and don't agree at all with the decision to back Anutin - regardless of some flawed rationale given by the senior ranks of the PP.

1 hour ago, motdaeng said:

possible ... but i wonder how can you be so sure with your prediction? are you a former politician? .... 🤔 

Certainly not; let's say a long standing cynical observer of the business!

 

Politics, everywhere, fascinates me - not least the things politicians are prepared to do for power and money, and the correlation is rarely as close as it is here!

On 9/5/2025 at 9:12 PM, scorecard said:

 

Education second tier?  No, always top tier.

 

Just to clarify, my opinion is that education (all levels) should be seen as a priority 1 / highly critical function on which to develop the country, with serious resources. 

 

I do agree that the Thai teaching profession has been holding education quality back for decades and it's still stuck in the same rut. 

 

I've posted before about the nasty backlash my own Thai son experienced on day 1 of uni in Bkk when he tried politely to ask a basic question, the reaction of the old dragon professor would never ever have been tolerated in a western uni or in Singapore. The old dragon professor failed my son on all subjects for his first semester and for his second semester she said if he apologized to her lying on the floor she would give him actual grades but nothing over a B. 

22 hours ago, still kicking said:

Or Trump....

Exactly!😂

I don't think we can assume anything about the next few months ahead yet, there are too many variables.

1. Thaksin will be back if found to be not subject to imprisonment on Tuesday. Even if found guilty, posters should not count Pheu Thai out, imo. Thaksin and his family will not give up political influence easily, it's their lifeblood.

 

2. Some PP voters express disillusionment with PP supporting Anuthin.

If they hadn't, what would have happened?

I believe Prayut would have been voted in as PM with support from:

P T- 141 seats

PPRP - 40 seats

UTN - 36 seats

Democrats -25 seats

CTPP- 10 seats

plus a few votes from very small parties

plus there is the 71 votes from Bhumjaithai if Anuthin hadn't succeeded.

 

But it seems Prayut turned down PT's offer of support. As a Privy Councillor, he would have had to relinquish that position, plus why support the man and family he has been opposed to for years? 

So if a deadlock had been reached with no agreement for a PM from within parliament, then an outsider could be selected. 

 

In that case, the outsider would likely be someone palatable to the conservative forces and would be unlikely to agree to the conditions PP forced on Anuthin.

Imo, PP made the best out of a bad situation for Anuthin is required to promise an election to be held within four months of taking office and PP pushed for a referendum to consider rewriting the constitution.

 

Of course, sceptics argue Anuthin will renege on these conditions but I don't think that will be good for his party's prospects in the next election, another betrayer, as PT did to PP post election when they said they would not join with the junta supporting parties.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On 9/5/2025 at 8:10 PM, ronnie50 said:

If they were smart, instead of playing the calous retribution card, they could and should have held PT's feet to the fire, indicating they would join PT in forming a government - as part of a government, not opposition - agree to the PT PM role, but demand significant cabinet positions like the ones already mentioned. PT would have had no choice but to go along with it. It was a major blunder. Now Anutin will do nothing that PP has asked. Eventually, come late November, the penny will finally have dropped but it will be too late. Then PP will withdraw their support, there will be a no-confidence vote, the 'Anutin elitist government' will fall, and there will be a coup. Then the same establishment types don't even miss a heartbeat going from one supportive government to the next.

I posted the other day that a coup is on the horizon, I also don't believe Anutin will honour pp conditions 

On 9/7/2025 at 5:48 AM, bannork said:

I don't think we can assume anything about the next few months ahead yet, there are too many variables.

1. Thaksin will be back if found to be not subject to imprisonment on Tuesday. Even if found guilty, posters should not count Pheu Thai out, imo. Thaksin and his family will not give up political influence easily, it's their lifeblood.

 

2. Some PP voters express disillusionment with PP supporting Anuthin.

If they hadn't, what would have happened?

I believe Prayut would have been voted in as PM with support from:

P T- 141 seats

PPRP - 40 seats

UTN - 36 seats

Democrats -25 seats

CTPP- 10 seats

plus a few votes from very small parties

plus there is the 71 votes from Bhumjaithai if Anuthin hadn't succeeded.

 

But it seems Prayut turned down PT's offer of support. As a Privy Councillor, he would have had to relinquish that position, plus why support the man and family he has been opposed to for years? 

So if a deadlock had been reached with no agreement for a PM from within parliament, then an outsider could be selected. 

 

In that case, the outsider would likely be someone palatable to the conservative forces and would be unlikely to agree to the conditions PP forced on Anuthin.

Imo, PP made the best out of a bad situation for Anuthin is required to promise an election to be held within four months of taking office and PP pushed for a referendum to consider rewriting the constitution.

 

Of course, sceptics argue Anuthin will renege on these conditions but I don't think that will be good for his party's prospects in the next election, another betrayer, as PT did to PP post election when they said they would not join with the junta supporting parties.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1/   Thaksin is in prison,    Thaksin daughter and Pheu Thai are not relevant. 

2/   Prayut had seen enough and done enough,  had no interest to do PM job again. 

3/   PP option was  back Pheu Thai or back BJ or back no one.  

4/   The new Administration term is 3/4 months or to max 2.5 years ?

 

IMO,  the issue is PP bet the "right horse"  or the "wrong horse"   ?   

   

On 9/11/2025 at 7:39 AM, kiwikeith said:

I posted the other day that a coup is on the horizon, I also don't believe Anutin will honour pp conditions 

Oil has a habit of leaking, Thaksin is not over, but the Military will solve the government with another coup.

rendering the family powerless, but not Anutan.

Time to retire and enjoy what's left of your life uncle Tony.

Santorini here we come.

On 9/6/2025 at 4:58 PM, bannork said:

if they vote against Bhumjaithai in Parliament, along with PT, the government will fall.

 

That magic word again. "IF"

 

It depends on which party the PP dislike the most.

 

The PTP or the BJT.

 

One thing I am sure of is that the PP did not think this through very well.

 

Some times it is better the devil you know than the devil you don't.

 

IMHO, Anutin and the BJT, having tasted control and power, will not easily let it go.

On 9/6/2025 at 9:06 PM, JAG said:

Certainly not; let's say a long standing cynical observer of the business!

 

Politics, everywhere, fascinates me - not least the things politicians are prepared to do for power and money, and the correlation is rarely as close as it is here!

I think that for Anutin, it is far more the attraction of power, than money.

1 hour ago, billd766 said:

I think that for Anutin, it is far more the attraction of power, than money.

I think that you are right, but in Thailand particularly you can't have one without the other!