Picture courtesy of iStock

 

Thailand faces economic challenges as the Thai baht continues to strengthen against the US dollar, raising concerns over the country's competitiveness in tourism and exports. The SCB EIC, a research centre under Siam Commercial Bank, has warned that this might dampen Thailand’s economic prospects compared to its regional peers.

 

Yunyong Thaicharoen, chief economist at EIC, highlighted the disconnect between the baht's strength and Thailand’s economic fundamentals. He cautioned that this could magnify external shocks, harming both export competitiveness and the recovery of the tourism sector. In contrast, the Vietnamese dong has depreciated by 3.5% against the dollar this year, potentially making Thailand less attractive to tourists and exporters.

 

Due to the baht’s climb, a Chinese tourist in Thailand would find that costs are about 4% higher than in other destinations.Mr. Yunyong noted that visiting Vietnam could cost them roughly 6% less. EIC predicts the baht could rise to 31.50–32 against the dollar this month and potentially reach 31–32 by the year's end.

 

The baht has surged by 7.6% since the start of the year, marking its strongest position in four years, and outperforming regional peers. This rise is attributed to various factors, including a weak US dollar, increased gold exports, a current account surplus, and capital inflows into Thailand’s bond market.

 

Tourist arrivals still lag behind last year’s figures, although there's a slight recovery, particularly among cautious Chinese tourists. EIC forecasts 32.9 million international tourist arrivals by 2025, but Thailand faces increasing competition for Asian tourists from neighbouring countries.

 

In addition to tourism and export challenges, unemployment has seen a worrying rise. The jobless rate for individuals aged 15–24 reached 18.9% in the second quarter of 2025, reflecting a sluggish business expansion. Companies are favouring experienced workers over new graduates amidst tough economic conditions, a trend exacerbated by AI disruptions which have significantly impacted youth employment.

 

EIC has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 1.8% from an earlier estimate of 2.0%, with a potential further decline to 1.5% expected in 2026.

 

 

 

Key Takeaways

• The Thai baht's appreciation threatens Thailand's tourism and export sectors.
• EIC warns of rising unemployment, particularly among new graduates.
• GDP growth forecasts are lowered amid challenging economic conditions.

Related Story:

 

Baht's Biggest Surge Since 1998 Poses Risk to Tourism And Exports

 

 

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from Bangkok Post 2025-09-30

 

 

The daily strong Baht thread and nothing really changes.

At least for me my monthly spending was higher in thailand. The US offers us alot of stuff for free

On the positive side, a strong Baht means that imported products, such as Australian wine, should be cheaper, at least for the local Thai population. 

28 minutes ago, VincentRJ said:

On the positive side, a strong Baht means that imported products, such as Australian wine, should be cheaper, at least for the local Thai population. 

Cheaper wine??? I wish it was but the wine is too expensive because of the extreme high import tax...I am sure you will see much better wines in the Supermarkets in Australia for 50% of the price of the low quality wines here in Thailand. I just returned from Spain and the same wine we ordered here was 815 THB is about 22 euro while exact the same bottle in Spain was 9,99 euro.... I know that transporting the wine is more expensive but more than doubling is a bit too much..With a much weaker THB the wines will be cheaper

This was reported months ago but the government will soon feel theeffects on exports and tourism while TAT will report record numbers again 

4 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

Cheaper wine??? I wish it was but the wine is too expensive because of the extreme high import tax...I am sure you will see much better wines in the Supermarkets in Australia for 50% of the price of the low quality wines here in Thailand. I just returned from Spain and the same wine we ordered here was 815 THB is about 22 euro while exact the same bottle in Spain was 9,99 euro.... I know that transporting the wine is more expensive but more than doubling is a bit too much..With a much weaker THB the wines will be cheaper

 

I'm not following your logic. If the value of the baht increases in relation to the Aussie dollar, then more wine can be imported for the same number of baht. If the import duty remains the same, then the price per litre of Australian wine should be lower, to the extent that the Thai baht has increased in value.

 

The same applies to all other imported products. However, the negative side is that all Thai products that are exported become more expensive in the countries that receive them, which has the effect of reducing the total quantity of Thai products that are manufactured or grown for export.

2 hours ago, VincentRJ said:

 

I'm not following your logic. If the value of the baht increases in relation to the Aussie dollar, then more wine can be imported for the same number of baht. If the import duty remains the same, then the price per litre of Australian wine should be lower, to the extent that the Thai baht has increased in value.

 

The same applies to all other imported products. However, the negative side is that all Thai products that are exported become more expensive in the countries that receive them, which has the effect of reducing the total quantity of Thai products that are manufactured or grown for export.

No... If the Thb is weaker you can get more THB for your USD or euros.. that means that things will get cheaper.. if something cost 1000 Thb at a rate of 37 it will cost 27 euro or usd if the rate is 40 it is only 25 euro or usd. The amount of Thb stays the same, but the foreign currency is affected. Same for your pension. With a weaker Thb you get more Thb and so can spend more

9 hours ago, angryguy said:

At least for me my monthly spending was higher in thailand. The US offers us alot of stuff for free

stay there then, but don't complain when the tariffs (taxes) start to hit your daily expenses, it's coming

7 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

Cheaper wine??? I wish it was but the wine is too expensive because of the extreme high import tax...I am sure you will see much better wines in the Supermarkets in Australia for 50% of the price of the low quality wines here in Thailand. I just returned from Spain and the same wine we ordered here was 815 THB is about 22 euro while exact the same bottle in Spain was 9,99 euro.... I know that transporting the wine is more expensive but more than doubling is a bit too much..With a much weaker THB the wines will be cheaper

if the baht is weak that means you will need more baht to buy the bottle of wine thus the wine will be more expensive in Thailand with a weaker baht, using your example of 815 baht for 22 euro (just an example) if baht is weaker you will need more than 815 bath to buy the same 22 euro bottle

Any movement by government to weaken the baht to spur exports and tourism?

 

11 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

if the baht is weak that means you will need more baht to buy the bottle of wine thus the wine will be more expensive in Thailand with a weaker baht, using your example of 815 baht for 22 euro (just an example) if baht is weaker you will need more than 815 bath to buy the same 22 euro bottle

Not true...The prices are not affected  If I pay 1000 THB for something I pay 1000 THB nothing to do with teh exchange rate.. My income from abroad will give me more THB but the prices in the shop stay the same

13 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

if the baht is weak that means you will need more baht to buy the bottle of wine thus the wine will be more expensive in Thailand with a weaker baht, using your example of 815 baht for 22 euro (just an example) if baht is weaker you will need more than 815 bath to buy the same 22 euro bottle

Not true...The prices are not affected  If I pay 1000 THB for something I pay 1000 THB nothing to do with teh exchange rate.. My income from abroad will give me more THB but the prices in the shop stay the same.. Or did you pay less when the THB is strong???

 

Just now, ikke1959 said:

Not true...The prices are not affected  If I pay 1000 THB for something I pay 1000 THB nothing to do with teh exchange rate.. My income from abroad will give me more THB but the prices in the shop stay the same

we were talking about imported goods, not your income, you do have more baht if it's weak but the store who imports the wine will not be able to sell it at the previous price as they have to disburse more baht to pay for the same bottle

2 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

Not true...The prices are not affected  If I pay 1000 THB for something I pay 1000 THB nothing to do with teh exchange rate.. My income from abroad will give me more THB but the prices in the shop stay the same.. Or did you pay less when the THB is strong???

 

not [pay less as importers don't lower prices they do increase prices for their convenience, lowering??? nahhh, thus if they pay less baht for the same bottle they will not change the price only if they pay more then they will raise, just follow the gas price it's an easy example as the pump keeps adjusting prices regularly and to my surprise they do lower and/or raise depending on the market

Every few days the same story - nothing changes...

 

The US$ wants to be weak - because Trump wants this. So stop complaining. Or change something. It's easy, if you really want.

 

Ah, complaining is easier I guess.

 

 

1 hour ago, Mavideol said:

not [pay less as importers don't lower prices they do increase prices for their convenience, lowering??? nahhh, thus if they pay less baht for the same bottle they will not change the price only if they pay more then they will raise, just follow the gas price it's an easy example as the pump keeps adjusting prices regularly and to my surprise they do lower and/or raise depending on the market

Happen the same as if the THB is strong??? I did not notice

On 9/30/2025 at 8:15 AM, webfact said:

The SCB EIC, a research centre under Siam Commercial Bank, has warned that this might dampen Thailand’s economic prospects compared to its regional peers.

I'm sure it can be adjusted to suit

On 9/30/2025 at 8:19 AM, angryguy said:

At least for me my monthly spending was higher in thailand. The US offers us alot of stuff for free

I go back to the US two or three times a year and inflation is so spectacularly High nearly everything I encounter is grossly overpriced and anything pertaining to labor is utterly ridiculous. Since when did plumbers, refrigerator repairman, and carpenters decide that they deserve to earn the same wages as a psychiatrist used to earn?

 

A friend of mine who divides this time between Monte Carlo and London was recently in New York and Los Angeles, and he said that both cities are now more expensive than either Monte Carlo or London, and I agree with him. 

 

The US is a failed state, it's best just to admit it. 

Thailand only cares about keeping the Rich Families happy and the Baht will be manipulated to suit them.   Nobody and nothing else matters !

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

anything pertaining to labor is utterly ridiculous. Since when did plumbers, refrigerator repairman, and carpenters decide that they deserve to earn the same wages as a psychiatrist used to earn?

 

I've noticed this also in the US. Baristas, hair dressers, and also at places like farmer's markets. They are frequently obnoxious about it, too. It makes everything much more unpleasant. At the same time, most people like them used to be able to better afford things like housing and car with insurance, even on those salaries, and now they can't.
 

On 9/30/2025 at 9:42 AM, ozz1 said:

This was reported months ago but the government will soon feel theeffects on exports and tourism while TAT will report record numbers again 

Who cares about cheaper wine, its affecting everything and nothing is done because this falls on deaf ears.

20 hours ago, jimmybcool said:

Any movement by government to weaken the baht to spur exports and tourism?

 

I guess they have an eye on this. And that's it!

Well, I'd rather say that the dollar is weak, and it's only the beginning... 

1 EUR = 37.9275 THB

1 USD =  32.3389 THB

1 USD = 0.852651 EUR