Abhisit Could Die From Problems

[Steve2UK]

A pardon or amnesty of politicians is one thing, doing it to coup makers is quite another completely unacceptable matter. Should all coups everywhere be pardoned, or only some - and which ones, when, where and why?

Voters have approved a constitution that immunizes the coup makers. That's not enuff, you want a pardon/amnesty of the generals by the head of state?

To answer the last question first (and also remembering about whom you're talking), my take is that it would likely be seen as pragmatic/convenient for the amnesty to deem the matter of 2006 coup participants as already dealt with - they already got their immunity in the manner you described. The Thai head of state signs constitutions to bring them (and thus all their provisions including such immunities) into effect. The 2007 constitution is no exception and was duly signed - thus IMO they're already pardoned in practice if not in name.

For your first much broader question(s) I have no answer to give you - any more than I'm equipped to give you a detailed line-by-line proposal for how the "slate-cleaning" would/should operate here. Governments can call on panels of many heads wiser than mine to get to that stage - but first they have to want to.

Edited November 19, 2009 by Steve2UK

[Publicus]

A pardon or amnesty of politicians is one thing, doing it to coup makers is quite another completely unacceptable matter. Should all coups everywhere be pardoned, or only some - and which ones, when, where and why?

Voters have approved a constitution that immunizes the coup makers. That's not enuff, you want a pardon/amnesty of the generals by the head of state?

To answer the last question first (and also remembering about whom you're talking), my take is that it would likely be seen as pragmatic/convenient for the amnesty to deem the matter of 2006 coup participants as already dealt with - they already got their immunity in the manner you described. The Thai head of state signs constitutions to bring them (and thus all their provisions including such immunities) into effect. The 2007 constitution is no exception and was duly signed - thus IMO they're already pardoned in practice if not in name.

For your first much broader question(s) I have no answer to give you - any more than I'm equipped to give you a detailed line-by-line proposal for how the "slate-cleaning" would/should operate here. Governments can call on panels of many heads wiser than mine to get to that stage - but first they have to want to.

Given your first response, I don't see why you specifically stated in the earlier post the boys (in the green) uniforms should be included in a pardon/amnesty as you agree with my point that the generals who led the 2006 coup already had been granted immunity by the voters when they approved the constitution referendum. Seems redundant and out of your way for you to have said, that's all.

To your second point concerning the prerequisite of having to want to grant a pardon/amnesty - no one I know wants to return the treasury or the levers of power to Thaksin and his gang. Handing Thaksin his 76 bn loot back would be official state suicide too.

Edited November 19, 2009 by Publicus

[Steve2UK]

A pardon or amnesty of politicians is one thing, doing it to coup makers is quite another completely unacceptable matter. Should all coups everywhere be pardoned, or only some - and which ones, when, where and why?

Voters have approved a constitution that immunizes the coup makers. That's not enuff, you want a pardon/amnesty of the generals by the head of state?

To answer the last question first (and also remembering about whom you're talking), my take is that it would likely be seen as pragmatic/convenient for the amnesty to deem the matter of 2006 coup participants as already dealt with - they already got their immunity in the manner you described. The Thai head of state signs constitutions to bring them (and thus all their provisions including such immunities) into effect. The 2007 constitution is no exception and was duly signed - thus IMO they're already pardoned in practice if not in name.

For your first much broader question(s) I have no answer to give you - any more than I'm equipped to give you a detailed line-by-line proposal for how the "slate-cleaning" would/should operate here. Governments can call on panels of many heads wiser than mine to get to that stage - but first they have to want to.

Given your first response, I don't see why you specifically stated in the earlier post the boys (in the green) uniforms should be included in a pardon/amnesty as you agree with my point that the generals who led the 2006 coup already had been granted immunity by the voters when they approved the constitution referendum. Seems redundant and out of your way for you to have said, that's all.

To your second point concerning the prerequisite of having to want to grant a pardon/amnesty - no one I know wants to return the treasury or the levers of power to Thaksin and his gang. Handing Thaksin his 76 bn loot back would be official state suicide too.

I think you know I'm all for being as exact as possible with wording, not confusing speculation with fact etc - but I do think you're getting down to splitting hairs here. I'm just suggesting the coup-leaders would stay immunified/amnestied/pardoned (whatever their technical legal status currently is) - as opposed to confronting the possibility of their immunity being revoked that one assumes arises if the 2007 constitution were itself to be revoked (as some call for). If there were to be any kind of return to an amended 1997 constitution, I'm fairly sure that the relevant powers-that-be would insist that the existing immunities are absolutely guaranteed to be transferred into it before they even think of giving the required nod to any of the rest. Likewise if the 2007 version were to be amended - keep their immunity intact.

On your second point, you may recall that I previously suggested* that the "reconciliation pitch" would include "Thaksin's assets largely unfrozen - '(i.e "we've sorted out his main gripe - he's OK with that, so drop it")'. Note "largely" not completely - with amnesties it's usual that everyone takes a share of the pain; how much pain i.e. what proportion of the assets is forfeited remains to be gauged - I assume that you and those you know would want it to be 100%. I think you won't be surprised that my logic and assessment tells me (and now you) that you and they are being unrealistic. The reverse of what you previously referred to as a "deal breaker" for those absolutely opposed to any such deal is almost certainly a parallel deal breaker for Thaksin. I have also commented elsewhere that there would in any case remain the question of, having bought him off (as in "he's OK with that"), how to ensure that he stays "bought". I nowhere refer to handing "the levers of power to Thaksin" - though perhaps you regard having the larger part of his funds available as being the same thing. We differ on that - I see the money being the object of his game and the return to power as not much more than an occasional pipedream that he'll have less and less often if/when the money issue is resolved for him...... whereas I suspect you see the return to power as the primary object.

Overall, it comes as no surprise whatever to me that there is still considerable resistance to amnesty even in principle (I said before "Always controversial and objected to by some" - and I'm happy to amend that to "many"); it always takes time and plenty of punishing stalemate for the message to sink in and become acceptable. We'll see.........

* http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=3112283

[Publicus]

The philosophical attitude of let's sit back to wait and see is a tenuous one at best. There are less tenuous matters before us.

Thaksin wants the loot back and he wants the balance of his planned but aborted 20+ years of rule back. The guy's done nothing since being deposed that would or could indicate he is capable of governing Thailand in any reasonably competent and wise ways.

His awful behaviour while in office has been eclipsed only by his abomnible and ever scheming behaviours since being booted out of his appointed position of acting interim PM.

The guy shows no self reflection, no introspection, no shame, no indication that he might do well to reconsider his mindset or his attitudes. He's still spewing the glib and facile SOS about himself being of and from the people, a democrat, a victim, a patriot, a good man etc etc. Indeed his newest pal Hun Sen is one of his oldest cronies.

Thaksin remains the unbalanced, intemperate scheming person he always has been. There isn't any indication he can or would change or improve himself to make himself more acceptable to those he has driven away from him.

Amnesties or pardons have certain prerequisites to them, remorse being one, which are absent in the absolute in the case of Thaksin. Thaksin gives no reason to hope he could or would imrove the many faults so many others find in him, thus making it impossible to even consider his continuous whining and whinging.

[saag]

"Abhisit could die from problems"

PM to visit Chiang Mai on Nov 29 despite assassination threat

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said Friday that he will attend the Chamber of Commerce meeting in Chiang Mai on November 29 despite an assassination threat.

He said he would not change his schedule although a community radio station in Chiang Mai said the prime minister would be assassinate with a bomb attack.

He said he is confident in security measures of security agencies.

Abhisit said it was illegal that the radio programme host made the death threat during his programme and police would take legal action against the host.

The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingne...spite-assassina

[LawnGnome]

I actually wish the red shirts would try another attempt on Abhisit (I count that assault on his vehicles during Bloody Songkran at the first). Nothing will kill off their support faster... But frankly, if you want to kill a snake you chop of the head. Somebody have a shovel anywhere near Dubai?

[hammered]

"Abhisit could die from problems"

PM to visit Chiang Mai on Nov 29 despite assassination threat

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said Friday that he will attend the Chamber of Commerce meeting in Chiang Mai on November 29 despite an assassination threat.

He said he would not change his schedule although a community radio station in Chiang Mai said the prime minister would be assassinate with a bomb attack.

He said he is confident in security measures of security agencies.

Abhisit said it was illegal that the radio programme host made the death threat during his programme and police would take legal action against the host.

The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingne...spite-assassina

In most countires if a radio host made a death threat against the PM they would be instantly whisked away by police and held under emergency laws. If the radio host was passing on info they had heard they would be whgisked away to be interviewed on what and from whom they had heard things

December is going to be a very very rocky month

The drumbeat for change or revolution is coming from the reds and they clearly want it over soon. Just wait to see if they call on their supporters in the police andf military to come out for them and the 111 too. That was what happened at Songhkran. If they look like they are doing this then they must feel they have a stronger hand now. Personally I cant see why but then again us merer mortals know little and are only observers.

[Steve2UK]

The philosophical attitude of let's sit back to wait and see is a tenuous one at best. There are less tenuous matters before us.

Thaksin wants the loot back and he wants the balance of his planned but aborted 20+ years of rule back. The guy's done nothing since being deposed that would or could indicate he is capable of governing Thailand in any reasonably competent and wise ways.

His awful behaviour while in office has been eclipsed only by his abomnible and ever scheming behaviours since being booted out of his appointed position of acting interim PM.

The guy shows no self reflection, no introspection, no shame, no indication that he might do well to reconsider his mindset or his attitudes. He's still spewing the glib and facile SOS about himself being of and from the people, a democrat, a victim, a patriot, a good man etc etc. Indeed his newest pal Hun Sen is one of his oldest cronies.

Thaksin remains the unbalanced, intemperate scheming person he always has been. There isn't any indication he can or would change or improve himself to make himself more acceptable to those he has driven away from him.

Amnesties or pardons have certain prerequisites to them, remorse being one, which are absent in the absolute in the case of Thaksin. Thaksin gives no reason to hope he could or would imrove the many faults so many others find in him, thus making it impossible to even consider his continuous whining and whinging.

Yes, all very familiar dogmatic stuff. Your last paragraph at least makes a start on responding to some of what I said - but is actually inaccurate about remorse being a prerequisite for amnesties; even when Catholics are involved, it's not necessarily like in the confessional. The South African TRC* did at least implicitly call for it - but is almost unique in that; other amnesties have required no such thing - at most undertakings to cease previous activities that would otherwise attract legal sanction.

BTW if your first sentence is intended to refer to my last, you either genuinely and comprehensively misunderstand what I said or you're consciously setting out to misconstrue and now misrepresent it; "We'll see" clearly refers specifically to the observation in my closing paragraph - and is patently not an expression of any generalised "philosophical attitude of let's sit back to wait and see" - certainly not mine. Frankly, if your responses continue to be so hair-splitting and/or disingenuous then don't expect me to bother responding further.

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truth_and_Rec...South_Africa%29

[Publicus]

The philosophical attitude of let's sit back to wait and see is a tenuous one at best. There are less tenuous matters before us.

Thaksin wants the loot back and he wants the balance of his planned but aborted 20+ years of rule back. The guy's done nothing since being deposed that would or could indicate he is capable of governing Thailand in any reasonably competent and wise ways.

His awful behaviour while in office has been eclipsed only by his abomnible and ever scheming behaviours since being booted out of his appointed position of acting interim PM.

The guy shows no self reflection, no introspection, no shame, no indication that he might do well to reconsider his mindset or his attitudes. He's still spewing the glib and facile SOS about himself being of and from the people, a democrat, a victim, a patriot, a good man etc etc. Indeed his newest pal Hun Sen is one of his oldest cronies.

Thaksin remains the unbalanced, intemperate scheming person he always has been. There isn't any indication he can or would change or improve himself to make himself more acceptable to those he has driven away from him.

Amnesties or pardons have certain prerequisites to them, remorse being one, which are absent in the absolute in the case of Thaksin. Thaksin gives no reason to hope he could or would imrove the many faults so many others find in him, thus making it impossible to even consider his continuous whining and whinging.

Yes, all very familiar dogmatic stuff. Your last paragraph at least makes a start on responding to some of what I said - but is actually inaccurate about remorse being a prerequisite for amnesties; even when Catholics are involved, it's not necessarily like in the confessional. The South African TRC* did at least implicitly call for it - but is almost unique in that; other amnesties have required no such thing - at most undertakings to cease previous activities that would otherwise attract legal sanction.

BTW if your first sentence is intended to refer to my last, you either genuinely and comprehensively misunderstand what I said or you're consciously setting out to misconstrue and now misrepresent it; "We'll see" clearly refers specifically to the observation in my closing paragraph - and is patently not an expression of any generalised "philosophical attitude of let's sit back to wait and see" - certainly not mine. Frankly, if your responses continue to be so hair-splitting and/or disingenuous then don't expect me to bother responding further.

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truth_and_Rec...South_Africa%29

You are of course free to construe as you are apt to. I must say you set the bar of the standards of an amnesty/pardon so low that only snakes could pass under it, so thanks for your closing sentiment.

[zzaa09]

I actually wish the red shirts would try another attempt on Abhisit (I count that assault on his vehicles during Bloody Songkran at the first). Nothing will kill off their support faster... But frankly, if you want to kill a snake you chop of the head. Somebody have a shovel anywhere near Dubai?

As snakes are cold-blooded, they can easily be conditioned and tricked through hypnotic suggestion.

[Steve2UK]

<snip>

Yes, all very familiar dogmatic stuff. Your last paragraph at least makes a start on responding to some of what I said - but is actually inaccurate about remorse being a prerequisite for amnesties; even when Catholics are involved, it's not necessarily like in the confessional. The South African TRC* did at least implicitly call for it - but is almost unique in that; other amnesties have required no such thing - at most undertakings to cease previous activities that would otherwise attract legal sanction.

BTW if your first sentence is intended to refer to my last, you either genuinely and comprehensively misunderstand what I said or you're consciously setting out to misconstrue and now misrepresent it; "We'll see" clearly refers specifically to the observation in my closing paragraph - and is patently not an expression of any generalised "philosophical attitude of let's sit back to wait and see" - certainly not mine. Frankly, if your responses continue to be so hair-splitting and/or disingenuous then don't expect me to bother responding further.

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truth_and_Rec...South_Africa%29

You are of course free to construe as you are apt to. I must say you set the bar of the standards of an amnesty/pardon so low that only snakes could pass under it, so thanks for your closing sentiment.

It's not my bar to set, nor do I try to set it or even express approval of where it's set - I just describe accurately what happens out there in the real world. More of the same from you, I see........ Bye.

[Publicus]

<snip>

Yes, all very familiar dogmatic stuff. Your last paragraph at least makes a start on responding to some of what I said - but is actually inaccurate about remorse being a prerequisite for amnesties; even when Catholics are involved, it's not necessarily like in the confessional. The South African TRC* did at least implicitly call for it - but is almost unique in that; other amnesties have required no such thing - at most undertakings to cease previous activities that would otherwise attract legal sanction.

BTW if your first sentence is intended to refer to my last, you either genuinely and comprehensively misunderstand what I said or you're consciously setting out to misconstrue and now misrepresent it; "We'll see" clearly refers specifically to the observation in my closing paragraph - and is patently not an expression of any generalised "philosophical attitude of let's sit back to wait and see" - certainly not mine. Frankly, if your responses continue to be so hair-splitting and/or disingenuous then don't expect me to bother responding further.

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truth_and_Rec...South_Africa%29

You are of course free to construe as you are apt to. I must say you set the bar of the standards of an amnesty/pardon so low that only snakes could pass under it, so thanks for your closing sentiment.

It's not my bar to set, nor do I try to set it or even express approval of where it's set - I just describe accurately what happens out there in the real world. More of the same from you, I see........ Bye.

Trying to give a pseudo morality to your statements by citing the South Africa Truth and Reconciliation Commission and its unique sincerety of purpose and outcome is revealing of your strategy and tactics in seeking the return of Thaksin to power and the purse. As with Diogenes in his time and place, one can search endlessly to find an honest member of the Thai elite. Indeed, Thai culture and civilization is incapable of producing at the least one single leader who could rise to any times and conditions that would be half as serious, challenging and demanding of these we experience contemporarily.

Your agenda, masked in conciliation, harmony and magnaminity, is the return of Thaksin. The little light colonel hasn't any notion of any of the foregoing.

[Steve2UK]

<snip>

Yes, all very familiar dogmatic stuff. Your last paragraph at least makes a start on responding to some of what I said - but is actually inaccurate about remorse being a prerequisite for amnesties; even when Catholics are involved, it's not necessarily like in the confessional. The South African TRC* did at least implicitly call for it - but is almost unique in that; other amnesties have required no such thing - at most undertakings to cease previous activities that would otherwise attract legal sanction.

BTW if your first sentence is intended to refer to my last, you either genuinely and comprehensively misunderstand what I said or you're consciously setting out to misconstrue and now misrepresent it; "We'll see" clearly refers specifically to the observation in my closing paragraph - and is patently not an expression of any generalised "philosophical attitude of let's sit back to wait and see" - certainly not mine. Frankly, if your responses continue to be so hair-splitting and/or disingenuous then don't expect me to bother responding further.

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truth_and_Rec...South_Africa%29

You are of course free to construe as you are apt to. I must say you set the bar of the standards of an amnesty/pardon so low that only snakes could pass under it, so thanks for your closing sentiment.

It's not my bar to set, nor do I try to set it or even express approval of where it's set - I just describe accurately what happens out there in the real world. More of the same from you, I see........ Bye.

Trying to give a pseudo morality to your statements by citing the South Africa Truth and Reconciliation Commission and its unique sincerety of purpose and outcome is revealing of your strategy and tactics in seeking the return of Thaksin to power and the purse. As with Diogenes in his time and place, one can search endlessly to find an honest member of the Thai elite. Indeed, Thai culture and civilization is incapable of producing at the least one single leader who could rise to any times and conditions that would be half as serious, challenging and demanding of these we experience contemporarily.

Your agenda, masked in conciliation, harmony and magnaminity, is the return of Thaksin. The little light colonel hasn't any notion of any of the foregoing.

Thanks for confirming what I already started to suspect from your "input". At least Samuian comes out with the same guff early enough that I don't waste time framing sensible replies. The only real surprise here is that you don't also accuse me of being paid. Enough - I'm more than happy to leave others to judge the rational merit of what you say and what that says about you.

[Publicus]

You certainly get indignant about my pointing out that your referencing of the S Africa Truth and Reconciliation Commission is not applicable to Thai society and civilisation so would therefore be a bogus reference on your part.

Yeh, so, I don't know you or your purposes here or your intents, so I rationally wouldn't attempt to assign to you the (vile) status of being a money mercernay of the Thaksin gang. I can not presume you'd need cash in hand that desperately or desirably

The clear point at this time is that you cannot respond to my statement that you ingenously seek legitimacy to support your purposes here by citing the S Africa TRCC. It's inconceviable that such a body, its purposes and goals could in a million years be established or become accomplished in the former LOS and present day Thailand due to the reality that every Thai in (and out of) power is absolutely incapable of truth. The truth condems them all, which in reality condems all of Thai society and civilization.

That is, Thai culture society and civilization are as incapable of producing a transformative leader in the 21st century as it was during the whole of the 20th century.

So, given this reality, Thaksin is your guy, eh! Thaksin is the absolute worst of the lot. Again, Thaksin is naturally divisive and polarizing. Witness you, I and so many others at this forum and in so many places elsewhere.

Edited November 20, 2009 by Publicus

[Publicus]

"Abhisit could die from problems"

PM to visit Chiang Mai on Nov 29 despite assassination threat

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said Friday that he will attend the Chamber of Commerce meeting in Chiang Mai on November 29 despite an assassination threat.

He said he would not change his schedule although a community radio station in Chiang Mai said the prime minister would be assassinate with a bomb attack.

He said he is confident in security measures of security agencies.

Abhisit said it was illegal that the radio programme host made the death threat during his programme and police would take legal action against the host.

The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingne...spite-assassina

In most countires if a radio host made a death threat against the PM they would be instantly whisked away by police and held under emergency laws. If the radio host was passing on info they had heard they would be whgisked away to be interviewed on what and from whom they had heard things

December is going to be a very very rocky month

The drumbeat for change or revolution is coming from the reds and they clearly want it over soon. Just wait to see if they call on their supporters in the police andf military to come out for them and the 111 too. That was what happened at Songhkran. If they look like they are doing this then they must feel they have a stronger hand now. Personally I cant see why but then again us merer mortals know little and are only observers.

Your comments, analysis and insights are well taken. I'm watching Gen Prem who previously has led the absolutely loyalist garrison of Nakon Rachasima against insurgent generals in Bangkok and their disparate units in Bangkok, over which Prem in crisis has asserted his dominance. Gen Prem has accomplished this by calling on and leading the fiercely loyal Nakon Rachasima garrison, which by design always have been distanced and sheilded from the politics of Bangkok.

The sounds of insurrention and revolution are in the air, the recent arrangment by Thaksin to place himself in Cambodia where he easily met with his cadre to direct and coordinate his army of reds in the coming two or so weeks is also revealing and indicative, a foreshadowing as it were.

We've been through a couple of tense but anti-climactic moments in the very recent past, but this one certainly appears to be the big and perhaps final gamble, or at the least its beginnings. My money is on Gen Prem.

Edited November 20, 2009 by Publicus

[Artisi]

Long so long ago, apparently Thaksin had planned a little surprise for everyone while he was out of the country but was severly beaten to the punch, ie coup - so maybe it is time he is whacked once again while he is within striking range holed up in Cambodia- only this time it is possible to make it permanent without too many questions being asked and any re-percussions.

Edited November 20, 2009 by Artisi

[Steve2UK]

You certainly get indignant about my pointing out that your referencing of the S Africa Truth and Reconciliation Commission is not applicable to Thai society and civilisation so would therefore be a bogus reference on your part.

Yeh, so, I don't know you or your purposes here or your intents, so I rationally wouldn't attempt to assign to you the (vile) status of being a money mercernay of the Thaksin gang. I can not presume you'd need cash in hand that desperately or desirably

The clear point at this time is that you cannot respond to my statement that you ingenously seek legitimacy to support your purposes here by citing the S Africa TRCC. It's inconceviable that such a body, its purposes and goals could in a million years be established or become accomplished in the former LOS and present day Thailand due to the reality that every Thai in (and out of) power is absolutely incapable of truth. The truth condems them all, which in reality condems all of Thai society and civilization.

That is, Thai culture society and civilization are as incapable of producing a transformative leader in the 21st century as it was during the whole of the 20th century.

So, given this reality, Thaksin is your guy, eh! Thaksin is the absolute worst of the lot. Again, Thaksin is naturally divisive and polarizing. Witness you, I and so many others at this forum and in so many places elsewhere.

Edited November 21, 2009 by Steve2UK

[hammered]

"Abhisit could die from problems"

PM to visit Chiang Mai on Nov 29 despite assassination threat

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said Friday that he will attend the Chamber of Commerce meeting in Chiang Mai on November 29 despite an assassination threat.

He said he would not change his schedule although a community radio station in Chiang Mai said the prime minister would be assassinate with a bomb attack.

He said he is confident in security measures of security agencies.

Abhisit said it was illegal that the radio programme host made the death threat during his programme and police would take legal action against the host.

The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingne...spite-assassina

In most countires if a radio host made a death threat against the PM they would be instantly whisked away by police and held under emergency laws. If the radio host was passing on info they had heard they would be whgisked away to be interviewed on what and from whom they had heard things

December is going to be a very very rocky month

The drumbeat for change or revolution is coming from the reds and they clearly want it over soon. Just wait to see if they call on their supporters in the police andf military to come out for them and the 111 too. That was what happened at Songhkran. If they look like they are doing this then they must feel they have a stronger hand now. Personally I cant see why but then again us merer mortals know little and are only observers.

Your comments, analysis and insights are well taken. I'm watching Gen Prem who previously has led the absolutely loyalist garrison of Nakon Rachasima against insurgent generals in Bangkok and their disparate units in Bangkok, over which Prem in crisis has asserted his dominance. Gen Prem has accomplished this by calling on and leading the fiercely loyal Nakon Rachasima garrison, which by design always have been distanced and sheilded from the politics of Bangkok.

The sounds of insurrention and revolution are in the air, the recent arrangment by Thaksin to place himself in Cambodia where he easily met with his cadre to direct and coordinate his army of reds in the coming two or so weeks is also revealing and indicative, a foreshadowing as it were.

We've been through a couple of tense but anti-climactic moments in the very recent past, but this one certainly appears to be the big and perhaps final gamble, or at the least its beginnings. My money is on Gen Prem.

My feeling is that his hand is weakening. I really hope violence can be avoided but so many seem to think that it is inevitable and just a matter of when

[rixalex]

Just to go back a little in the debate guys...

The philosophical attitude of let's sit back to wait and see is a tenuous one at best. There are less tenuous matters before us.

you either genuinely and comprehensively misunderstand what I said or you're consciously setting out to misconstrue and now misrepresent it;

I have to say that when i read Publicus your comments about "sitting back" i was confused about how they related to what Steve had just said, so i scrolled back to reread Steve's comments and still could find no connection to the "sitting back" comment.

Edited November 21, 2009 by rixalex

[senshusband]

I don't know about what you guys want, but next week when I go see Santa and he asks me what I want for Christmas, I'm gonna tell him that all I want is to hang out with Hun Sen and that cool guy from N. Korea! I think it would be a blast to hang out with a couple of guys who do nothing but stir the "doo-doo" pot just to get a reaction from others.

[rixalex]

<snip>

You are of course free to construe as you are apt to. I must say you set the bar of the standards of an amnesty/pardon so low that only snakes could pass under it, so thanks for your closing sentiment.

It's not my bar to set, nor do I try to set it or even express approval of where it's set - I just describe accurately what happens out there in the real world.

I don't understand Steve why you simply dismiss the conditions of amnesties / pardons as being out of our control and therefore somehow irrelevant to our thoughts and opinions as to the merits of such action. They are central to mine.

[Publicus]

Just to go back a little in the debate guys...

The philosophical attitude of let's sit back to wait and see is a tenuous one at best. There are less tenuous matters before us.

you either genuinely and comprehensively misunderstand what I said or you're consciously setting out to misconstrue and now misrepresent it;

I have to say that when i read Publicus your comments about "sitting back" i was confused about how they related to what Steve had just said, so i scrolled back to reread Steve's comments and still could find no connection to the "sitting back" comment.

Thanks for the assist rixalex as I wouldn't want conditions to exist by which a fellow forumist would be wont to think or believe I'd attempt consciously to misconstrue or misrepresent a post. Concomitantly, nor would I be likely to genuinely and comprehensively misunderstand the post of a forumist. While the "we'll see" statement is used regularly in discourse, it can on occasion be open-ended enuff or aloof enuff to lend itself to differing inferences, which I think may have occurred here.

In the matter of urging amnesties, there indeed are precedents and practices "out there" globally which can or could be applied in Thailand, or modified to the particulars and specifics of Thai justice and jurisprudence but, again, one first would need to be willing to pursue the matter. We do note that Steve realistically made a major modification to his post, to change opposed by 'some' to it's being opposed my 'many'. So we do know what we see presently.

[rixalex]

Thanks for the assist rixalex as I wouldn't want conditions to exist by which a fellow forumist would be wont to think or believe I'd attempt consciously to misconstrue or misrepresent a post. Concomitantly, nor would I be likely to genuinely and comprehensively misunderstand the post of a forumist. While the "we'll see" statement is used regularly in discourse, it can on occasion be open-ended enuff or aloof enuff to lend itself to differing inferences, which I think may have occurred here.

In short, are you saying that you may have got the wrong end of the stick on that particular point?

[Publicus]

In most countires if a radio host made a death threat against the PM they would be instantly whisked away by police and held under emergency laws. If the radio host was passing on info they had heard they would be whgisked away to be interviewed on what and from whom they had heard things

December is going to be a very very rocky month

The drumbeat for change or revolution is coming from the reds and they clearly want it over soon. Just wait to see if they call on their supporters in the police andf military to come out for them and the 111 too. That was what happened at Songhkran. If they look like they are doing this then they must feel they have a stronger hand now. Personally I cant see why but then again us merer mortals know little and are only observers.

Your comments, analysis and insights are well taken. I'm watching Gen Prem who previously has led the absolutely loyalist garrison of Nakon Rachasima against insurgent generals in Bangkok and their disparate units in Bangkok, over which Prem in crisis has asserted his dominance. Gen Prem has accomplished this by calling on and leading the fiercely loyal Nakon Rachasima garrison, which by design always have been distanced and sheilded from the politics of Bangkok.

The sounds of insurrention and revolution are in the air, the recent arrangment by Thaksin to place himself in Cambodia where he easily met with his cadre to direct and coordinate his army of reds in the coming two or so weeks is also revealing and indicative, a foreshadowing as it were.

We've been through a couple of tense but anti-climactic moments in the very recent past, but this one certainly appears to be the big and perhaps final gamble, or at the least its beginnings. My money is on Gen Prem.

My feeling is that his hand is weakening. I really hope violence can be avoided but so many seem to think that it is inevitable and just a matter of when

Sadly I agree. Gen Prem's hand is less now than it ever has been but remains formidable enuff that I consider he'd prevail, but the outcome really would depend on how many army units in Bangkok would defect to Thaksin in a showdown. I suspect not enuff but enuff to make it a potentially messy and ugly clash. I regret to say it's approaching time to get on with it, to have it out, come what may.

[Publicus]

Thanks for the assist rixalex as I wouldn't want conditions to exist by which a fellow forumist would be wont to think or believe I'd attempt consciously to misconstrue or misrepresent a post. Concomitantly, nor would I be likely to genuinely and comprehensively misunderstand the post of a forumist. While the "we'll see" statement is used regularly in discourse, it can on occasion be open-ended enuff or aloof enuff to lend itself to differing inferences, which I think may have occurred here.

In short, are you saying that you may have got the wrong end of the stick on that particular point?

In short, I said what I said irrespective of trying to place words in my mouth.

The forumist being referenced is disappointed and frustrated, tho I wouldn't say heartbroken, that he learned in rather abrupt terms that he didn't have a ready sucker convert he could manipulate to his side, the side which favors amnesty and pardons for Thaksin and the entire class of Thaksin's criminal associates who have been prohibited by the courts from standing for office again for five years from the ruling.

The forumist had thought I was a potential convert to the general cause, to which he thoroughly subscribes. He feels jilted by his own delusions as evidenced by him in his Post #127 at this thread, in which he takes pains to provide the link to a previous post I'd made indicating my tea and sympathy towards all of the Thai peasantry but the folk of the North and Northeast in particular. In the link to my post provided by the forumist in his above Post #127, and in a few other (unlinked) posts I'd made previously to other threads, I expressed sympathies towards the poor and neglected of Thailand, the demographic Thaksin cynically claims to represent and care for, but I made clear in each post that the peasantry will get nowhere unless and until they decisively and clearly separate themselves from Thaksin.

I have made clear my expressions of sympathies towards the poor and long neglected, the huge demographic Thaksin heartlessly exploits for his own nefarious purposes, does not mean I'd support an amnesty and pardon of those ruthless exploiters. A few other forumists of the same hue as the forumist at this thread, have similarly tried without success to expolit for their own purposes my sentiments towards the rural agrarian dispossed.

Now that the latest forumist in particular recognizes, realizes and knows I mean no amnesty and no pardon, he's acting like a rejected suitor, which is his problem to deal with.

[animatic]

The philosophical attitude of let's sit back to wait and see is a tenuous one at best. There are less tenuous matters before us.

Thaksin wants the loot back and he wants the balance of his planned but aborted 20+ years of rule back. The guy's done nothing since being deposed that would or could indicate he is capable of governing Thailand in any reasonably competent and wise ways.

His awful behaviour while in office has been eclipsed only by his abomnible and ever scheming behaviours since being booted out of his appointed position of acting interim PM.

The guy shows no self reflection, no introspection, no shame, no indication that he might do well to reconsider his mindset or his attitudes. He's still spewing the glib and facile SOS about himself being of and from the people, a democrat, a victim, a patriot, a good man etc etc. Indeed his newest pal Hun Sen is one of his oldest cronies.

Thaksin remains the unbalanced, intemperate scheming person he always has been. There isn't any indication he can or would change or improve himself to make himself more acceptable to those he has driven away from him.

Amnesties or pardons have certain prerequisites to them, remorse being one, which are absent in the absolute in the case of Thaksin. Thaksin gives no reason to hope he could or would imrove the many faults so many others find in him, thus making it impossible to even consider his continuous whining and whinging.

Spot on!

[animatic]

Trying to give a pseudo morality to your statements by citing the South Africa Truth and Reconciliation Commission and its unique sincerety of purpose and outcome is revealing of your strategy and tactics in seeking the return of Thaksin to power and the purse. As with Diogenes in his time and place, one can search endlessly to find an honest member of the Thai elite. Indeed, Thai culture and civilization is incapable of producing at the least one single leader who could rise to any times and conditions that would be half as serious, challenging and demanding of these we experience contemporarily.

Your agenda, masked in conciliation, harmony and magnaminity, is the return of Thaksin. The little light colonel hasn't any notion of any of the foregoing.

Thanks for confirming what I already started to suspect from your "input". At least Samuian comes out with the same guff early enough that I don't waste time framing sensible replies. The only real surprise here is that you don't also accuse me of being paid. Enough - I'm more than happy to leave others to judge the rational merit of what you say and what that says about you.

Interesting; you forgot to laden me into that grouping.

I know both of these fine people first hand and personally,

and they are both very experienced in Thailand and very informed.

For Samuian english is not his first language, so occasionally his comments are grammatically odd,

but what he says is based on cogent observation.

Publicus has the grammar, construction and observational abilities of an old school professional journalist,

and so states his case better than most, and doesn't shy from the Sisyphusian labors of stating them here.

I just call em as I see'm.

But it is not lost on me which thoughtful individuals you choose to dispute.

Which begs the question; why?

Edited November 22, 2009 by animatic

[animatic]

Thanks for the assist rixalex as I wouldn't want conditions to exist by which a fellow forumist would be wont to think or believe I'd attempt consciously to misconstrue or misrepresent a post. Concomitantly, nor would I be likely to genuinely and comprehensively misunderstand the post of a forumist. While the "we'll see" statement is used regularly in discourse, it can on occasion be open-ended enuff or aloof enuff to lend itself to differing inferences, which I think may have occurred here.

In short, are you saying that you may have got the wrong end of the stick on that particular point?

Well the words "We'll see." implies a wait and see posture.

We will see when it happens. Which necessarily implies waiting till it does.

Parsing, ever parsing,

in for pound or in for a farthing.*

* ©animatic 2009

[animatic]

Some here seem to equate formal and stern dislike, distrust and opprobrium for all things Thaksin,

with some elitist disregard for the common people, so long ignored by Thaksin and his hi-so brethren,

until he saw it serve his purposes as power broker and putative grand-standing ruler or Thailand.

Further this spurious connectivity is extended to implying that

having a dislike for red Shirt leadership and their disingenuous manipulation

of different portions of the northern populace, is somehow

directly analogous to disliking those same portions of the norther populace.

Fortunately those two misconceptions

are totally in the minds of those attempting that connection.

[Publicus]

Some here seem to equate formal and stern dislike, distrust and opprobrium for all things Thaksin,

with some elitist disregard for the common people, so long ignored by Thaksin and his hi-so brethren,

until he saw it serve his purposes as power broker and putative grand-standing ruler or Thailand.

Further this spurious connectivity is extended to implying that

having a dislike for red Shirt leadership and their disingenuous manipulation

of different portions of the northern populace, is somehow

directly analogous to disliking those same portions of the norther populace.

Fortunately those two misconceptions

are totally in the minds of those attempting that connection.

This point very much needed to be said. Red forumists would be wise to take note and remember it well. The reds do not have the corner on support of education and economic development programs for the dirt poor. In fact the present government has non-exploitive policies which are in process or in its budget and about to come on line. Red forumists need to smell the coffee.