Rubber Trees

[thoongfoned]

my 2 cents worth. try and think like  the end the buyer-company. rubber will have a shelve life, the end buyer will have people looking at the future worth of product, after they have processed- added value to product, by then the price could-would have moved from from when the company said it would by x amount a x amount of money... the middle buyers will all have contacts up the chain and will be told what they can buy and how much of it, well thats what i would do. that way the middle people will make there bit on say per kg, or they would stand to loose to much and not bother buying. a bit like the plantation owner of workers deciding that its best not to tap the tree because of the expected return, ie low price per kg. 

what im trying to say is maybe the big buyers-players in the thai market think the price is due to fall in the near future and have ajusted there buying price to what they think, minus x amount of percent just to make sure, that way if all stays the same on world markets they are Even better off-covered against loss or massive profit......

 

 

[farmerjo]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tire_manufacturing

 

 

[farmerjo]

33 minutes ago, farmerjo said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tire_manufacturing

 

 

Are the buyers buying for domestic or international market or is there a difference.

[grollies]

51 minutes ago, thoongfoned said:

my 2 cents worth. try and think like  the end the buyer-company. rubber will have a shelve life, the end buyer will have people looking at the future worth of product, after they have processed- added value to product, by then the price could-would have moved from from when the company said it would by x amount a x amount of money... the middle buyers will all have contacts up the chain and will be told what they can buy and how much of it, well thats what i would do. that way the middle people will make there bit on say per kg, or they would stand to loose to much and not bother buying. a bit like the plantation owner of workers deciding that its best not to tap the tree because of the expected return, ie low price per kg. 

what im trying to say is maybe the big buyers-players in the thai market think the price is due to fall in the near future and have ajusted there buying price to what they think, minus x amount of percent just to make sure, that way if all stays the same on world markets they are Even better off-covered against loss or massive profit......

 

 

Sorry, I have to correct my previous two posts.

 

On the year, rubber is up 15% not 4.6% (that was on the month) on international markets.

 

 

 

Our first sale was Dec 2016 so I don't have a gate price for Oct 2016.

 

Anyway, you are basically talking about futures contracts which are normally between the producers (you & me) and the processors (say, tyre manufacturers).

 

As I understand it, futures are a mechanism to protect two parties from price volatility in the market and maintain steady consumer prices for the end users (i.e. car owners).

 

It is for investors in the futures market to take the lion's share of the risk (or profit) on the rubber price and supply/demand conditions. A higher demand or shortage of supply should lead to an increase in price on a commodity.

 

But this doesn't happen for rubber producers who are at the mercy of fluctuations in the gate price. GATE prices, not international market prices.

 

Like I said, price on the year is up 15% but gate prices are down around 40-50%.

 

The increase in price internationally over the last year does not reflect an over-supply of rubber.

 

Beats me, but a stoppage (or threat of) in Thailand's rubber production will have an effect. Looks like we'll be stopping production next week. I'm no expert in futures or rubber price reasoning, but I'm trying to understand the economics of it all........

 

......maybe I should go long on rubber?

 

BTW, has anyone else heard of a tapper's strike happening?

 

 

[thaiguzzi]

Sold cup at auction yesterday at a paltry 20.77 baht per kg.

A year ago it was 9-10 baht per kg better.

Just had a look on the GRM website. China's imports are good, they want more, the 3 big players in the market price are the Singapore, Tokyo and Shanghai stock exchanges. Nothing untoward there, so I presume the low prices here is mainly internal, market players and middlemen etc.

Unsmoked sheet @ 45 baht ? No wonder this country needs a revolution....

[thoongfoned]

yes,the big buyers are beting on a price drop, that is why gate price has fallen? that is just my guess....

how long do you think it takes your cup rubber to then be bailed and loaded for export, or used domestically in tyres or condoms ect..?

the large companies that buy and process the cup will also have very high overheads, hence my thing.....

[thoongfoned]

long on rubber.... yep just stop cutting and wait..... you have alraedy invested so you have the choices, the money you and the workers are getting is very litte anyway, from sales. 

the question i would ask is would i cut for that money? what with the rice harvest and sugar cane coming on line plenty of better paid work to hand.

[grollies]

9 minutes ago, thaiguzzi said:

Sold cup at auction yesterday at a paltry 20.77 baht per kg.

A year ago it was 9-10 baht per kg better.

Just had a look on the GRM website. China's imports are good, they want more, the 3 big players in the market price are the Singapore, Tokyo and Shanghai stock exchanges. Nothing untoward there, so I presume the low prices here is mainly internal, market players and middlemen etc.

Unsmoked sheet @ 45 baht ? No wonder this country needs a revolution....

got a link to that website TG?

[grollies]

21 minutes ago, thaiguzzi said:

Sold cup at auction yesterday at a paltry 20.77 baht per kg.

A year ago it was 9-10 baht per kg better.

Just had a look on the GRM website. China's imports are good, they want more, the 3 big players in the market price are the Singapore, Tokyo and Shanghai stock exchanges. Nothing untoward there, so I presume the low prices here is mainly internal, market players and middlemen etc.

Unsmoked sheet @ 45 baht ? No wonder this country needs a revolution....

Yep, China forecast this year is 8.8% increase in demand, 6.9% from imports.....

 

https://www.freedoniagroup.com/industry-study/rubber-products-in-china-3180.htm

Edited October 25, 2017 by grollies

[thaiguzzi]

# GRM = Global Rubber Market News. I look on there once every 2-3 weeks. Only one worth looking at.

# I don't know re some of the above posts.

  Up here in Northern Isaan, the weather has already changed. Less humidity daytime, noticeable temp drop at night. So the tappers are going from 5-6 taps a fortnight in humid conditions to 9 taps a fortnight in cool conditions. Come Dec-Jan - that is our "make hay while the sun shines" period.
Tapping is up 50% from rainy season, output is up 50% from rainy season and our production figures are up 100%. This makes up for a shortfall in the price.

# Hence up here anyway, why would tappers stop work? Deep South - different weather conditions ok.

# This part of Isaan also has an agreement between owners and workers that when the cup price drops below 20.00 baht per kg, ie 19.90, the split changes from 60/40 to 55/45 to help out the tappers.

# So, no not heard anything re strikes or downing tools. My tappers will get a payout today which will still equate to approx. 4,500 baht per person per week.

[thoongfoned]

32 minutes ago, thaiguzzi said:

# GRM = Global Rubber Market News. I look on there once every 2-3 weeks. Only one worth looking at.

# I don't know re some of the above posts.

  Up here in Northern Isaan, the weather has already changed. Less humidity daytime, noticeable temp drop at night. So the tappers are going from 5-6 taps a fortnight in humid conditions to 9 taps a fortnight in cool conditions. Come Dec-Jan - that is our "make hay while the sun shines" period.
Tapping is up 50% from rainy season, output is up 50% from rainy season and our production figures are up 100%. This makes up for a shortfall in the price.

# Hence up here anyway, why would tappers stop work? Deep South - different weather conditions ok.

# This part of Isaan also has an agreement between owners and workers that when the cup price drops below 20.00 baht per kg, ie 19.90, the split changes from 60/40 to 55/45 to help out the tappers.

# So, no not heard anything re strikes or downing tools. My tappers will get a payout today which will still equate to approx. 4,500 baht per person per week.

isssannnn, yep now is the time the latex will flow, if your trees are producing tons every month you will not  be downing tools........

[thoongfoned]

are they tapping again now in india, remmember reading last year they had stopped, then the government just started buying cheap thai rubber.....

one stops another jumps in.....

[cobbler]

Thai guzzi the wayyou feed top quality and expensive pui is deffinately worth a look for all to try. As you appear to get much more money than the rest of us. If your workers are getting 4500 bart per person per week,this is very good. Its over 600 bart per day. I dont know anybody at the moment down here getting anywhere near that. This includes trees with a tap line of 1 meter long at 25 years of age. These trees haveva circumference or 3 meters. So if your biggest trees haveva tap line of maybe 15 to 20 cm the rubber must be streeming out of them. It would be something ide love to see.
4500 x 4 weeks per month is 18,000 bart per month for the worker. This is very impressive and far better than anything ive seen at these prices. I put it all down to the pui.

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[IsaanAussie]

At what stage in the trading does VAT begin to be paid? Follow the trail of ownership and tax paid, refunded and repaid. Farmers dont pay taxes, do the wholesalers? Government has to collect somewhere and from there at each sale. Just a thought. 

I have also noticed a familiar face has moved out of trading (AEC export) pigs and into crepe rubber. Has there been a shift in the way rubber trading is regulated due to AEC formation?

One thing is plain, any farming will become less profitable as capacity increases and production stabilises. 

[grollies]

5 hours ago, cobbler said:

Thai guzzi the wayyou feed top quality and expensive pui is deffinately worth a look for all to try. As you appear to get much more money than the rest of us. If your workers are getting 4500 bart per person per week,this is very good. Its over 600 bart per day. I dont know anybody at the moment down here getting anywhere near that. This includes trees with a tap line of 1 meter long at 25 years of age. These trees haveva circumference or 3 meters. So if your biggest trees haveva tap line of maybe 15 to 20 cm the rubber must be streeming out of them. It would be something ide love to see.
4500 x 4 weeks per month is 18,000 bart per month for the worker. This is very impressive and far better than anything ive seen at these prices. I put it all down to the pui.

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<deleted> me, if his trees are 3m round what is he feeding them? Truffles, caviar and gold leaf???

[cobbler]

me, if his trees are 3m round what is he feeding them? Truffles, caviar and gold leaf???

Mate u never go down here with out rain for more than a week or maybe 2,even in dry season.. mix this with good pui ,deffinately not the most expensive pui but decent and its very achievable.

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[thaiguzzi]

22 hours ago, cobbler said:

Thai guzzi the wayyou feed top quality and expensive pui is deffinately worth a look for all to try. As you appear to get much more money than the rest of us. If your workers are getting 4500 bart per person per week,this is very good. Its over 600 bart per day. I dont know anybody at the moment down here getting anywhere near that. This includes trees with a tap line of 1 meter long at 25 years of age. These trees haveva circumference or 3 meters. So if your biggest trees haveva tap line of maybe 15 to 20 cm the rubber must be streeming out of them. It would be something ide love to see.
4500 x 4 weeks per month is 18,000 bart per month for the worker. This is very impressive and far better than anything ive seen at these prices. I put it all down to the pui.

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Good Post.

My apologies Cobbler, do not know why I wrote the above incorrect figure in.

Should be 4500 per FORTNIGHT per worker at the current prices. Sorry for the confusion.

This time last year they WERE earning that per week...

[cobbler]

Good Post.
My apologies Cobbler, do not know why I wrote the above incorrect figure in.
Should be 4500 per FORTNIGHT per worker at the current prices. Sorry for the confusion.
This time last year they WERE earning that per week...

No problem mike. Its still a really good add for your pui. Shows its probably well worth the extra money. Not to mention in years to come your trees will be monsters possibly. Its possible youll have some with a 3 meter circumference. If you live long enough.[emoji106] really like to get around and see some of these people on the different tv farming threads. Many are doing great things. I find it inspiring. Just love farming .
I can see really good things happening for farmers worldwide in the future. Worlds got exploding population and its got to eat every single day and needs stuffffff,eg rubber.
Keep on keepin on
Cheers cobbler

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[grollies]

On 25/10/2017 at 12:29 PM, thoongfoned said:

isssannnn, yep now is the time the latex will flow, if your trees are producing tons every month you will not  be downing tools........

Aye, I think my tappers realised this also. They turned up this morning. Hey ho.

[CLW]

I found an article on the Facebook site "Smart Farm Thailand" about a guy who is intercropping rubber trees with coffee. Maybe interesting for someone.
Here is the original link to the article: https://www.thairath.co.th/content/1092942

[thoongfoned]

13 hours ago, CLW said:

I found an article on the Facebook site "Smart Farm Thailand" about a guy who is intercropping rubber trees with coffee. Maybe interesting for someone.
Here is the original link to the article: https://www.thairath.co.th/content/1092942

up around us we had  family come visit a good many years ago try to push/sell some type of coffee tree/bush, never bought any but the few they left us never grew out of produced any thing....

that set up looks go though on the link.

[thaiguzzi]

19 hours ago, CLW said:

I found an article on the Facebook site "Smart Farm Thailand" about a guy who is intercropping rubber trees with coffee. Maybe interesting for someone.
Here is the original link to the article: https://www.thairath.co.th/content/1092942

I think coffee needs altitude. And the right climate. That set up would probably work well in the NW. Here in Isaan, people have tried it, lost a bunch of money. Nobody seems to do well with it around here. Possibly not only lack of altitude, but soil conditions too? Maybe Loei would be the nearest it would work; good soil, higher...

Does very well in Laos and Vietnam.

[cobbler]

Seen em a few times down here in bangsaphan area. Eventually the ground gets full of roots and neither do well.so ive seen them then pull the coffee trees out as yang at that time was better money. However now they may pull out the rubber trees.???

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[Mosha]

I think coffee needs altitude. And the right climate. That set up would probably work well in the NW. Here in Isaan, people have tried it, lost a bunch of money. Nobody seems to do well with it around here. Possibly not only lack of altitude, but soil conditions too? Maybe Loei would be the nearest it would work; good soil, higher...
Does very well in Laos and Vietnam.

Depends what you mean by altitude. When my MIL came to live in La-Un. Coffee was the main crop. Anywhere to 10m to 100m above sea level. She was among the 1st to grow rubber here.

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[Mosha]

18.5 BT/kg

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[grollies]

Can't see the price getting any better.

 

''After the meeting between Thai government (Rubber Authority of Thailand) and private organizations, 5 companies including Thai Rubber Latex Corporation (Thialand) PCL., Sri Trang Agro-industry PCL., Von Bundit Co,Ltd., Southland Rubber Co,Ltd. and Thai Hua Rubber PCL., for the resolution to stabilize rubber price, there was an agreement to set up Thai Rubber Fund Company Limited with a capital of 1,200 million THB. Thai Rubber Latex Corporation (Thialand) PCL. has invested in the company, amount of 200 million THB or 16.67% of the capital and already paid 25% of the investment for the shares by transferring the fund to Rubber Authority of Thailand’s account in order to invest in the company during the process of setting up a company. After the company was set up, it would get paid for the rest of the common share.''

 

Source: www.thaitex.com/main_page/news_detail.php?NewsID=481

 

Price has stabilized alright, at around B20/kg by the big 5. They have set this price by instructing the auction buyers on what they are prepared to pay.

 

The govt (Gen. Prayut) said yesterday the low price is caused by low demand - not true, Chinese demand for imports is expected to have grown 6.8% by year end - and low oil price, again not true as the oil price is pretty much the same as last year when prices for cup lump were at B39/kg.

 

BKK protests won't achieve anything.

[grollies]

And this from the month before that, June 2017:

 

''A rubber price stabilization fund will be created to intervene in the real rubber and futures rubber markets to shore up rubber prices in order to help rubber growers hard hit by falling rubber prices.

Creation of the fund was agreed by the rubber control committee headed by Agriculture Minister General Chatchai Sarikalya, with six major rubber exporters making contributions to make up the starting fund amounting to 1.2 billion baht.

General Chatchai said the six major rubber exporters which are yet to be named will holds with the Thailand Futures exchange about the terms of rubber futures trading.

He expected the futures trading would begin next week and this would help in pushing up the prices of rubber.

The minister denied that the government had recently sold 30,000 tonnes of rubber from its stockpile as widely reported. He said that he had instructed the deputy permanent secretary, Mr Lertvirote Kowattana, to summon a meeting with local administration bodies about using rubber in road construction.

Earlier, the government set out a policy instructing local administration organizations to use rubber in road construction in their localities. But the policy was not put into practice due to procurement regulations forbidding the use of rubber in road building and maintenance.''

 

Source: englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/rubber-fund-created-shore-rubber-prices/

 

Friend of ours invented the use of rubber in road construction. I asked him at his daughter's wedding a while back how he saw the price going.

 

Not a positive response.

 

Very sad state of affairs and I'll leave it at that.

 

Cheers guys

 

G

[thaiguzzi]

Forecasts are for a worldwide surplus of half a million tonnes by season end which has been the norm for the last few years...

[thaiguzzi]

On ‎11‎/‎3‎/‎2017 at 9:46 AM, thaiguzzi said:

Forecasts are for a worldwide surplus of half a million tonnes by season end which has been the norm for the last few years...

Just read another quote from a different source but the same website that end of season will be a 50,000 ton surplus....

That's more like it.

TOCOM has ended on a 5 week high amidst concerns of weather affecting Vietnam and Thailand's deep South production figures. Oh and the Yen/$ malarkey....

[grollies]

1 hour ago, thaiguzzi said:

Just read another quote from a different source but the same website that end of season will be a 50,000 ton surplus....

That's more like it.

TOCOM has ended on a 5 week high amidst concerns of weather affecting Vietnam and Thailand's deep South production figures. Oh and the Yen/$ malarkey....

Should be weighing-in tomorrow, hopefully a higher price than last time.