October 12, 201114 yr Agreed. Michelle Bachman says she would close the Department of Education and the Department of Energy on her first day in office, if elected. That would be a nice start. NO!!! I am not a Bachman fan but I do think her idea has merit. Ron Paul said the same years ago http://www.ronpaul.com/on-the-issues/education/
October 12, 201114 yr Agreed. Michelle Bachman says she would close the Department of Education and the Department of Energy on her first day in office, if elected. That would be a nice start. NO!!! I am not a Bachman fan but I do think her idea has merit. Ron Paul said the same years ago http://www.ronpaul.com/on-the-issues/education/ Then I agree with both of them but I am not a fan of either.
October 12, 201114 yr Although many of the factors are interrelated and, therefore, relevant, I think the focus should remain on the Eurozone and not possible US presidential candidates.
October 12, 201114 yr As for revenue/interest ratio.... Yes it is interesting that even now the US through their income via taxation cannot even pay the interest on the debt so none of the debt gets touched/paid down. Then let the EU (and US) do what people do - restructure their debt.
October 12, 201114 yr Then why post the total national debt followed by number of inhabitants? to show that both economic blocs are rather similar and will have a future similar taxpayer structure as well as to answer the question "What backs up the Euro, croissants, wine, German sausage and cheese?" but that again is obviously too sophisticated for some "outside the box" participants. in future i will limit myself to simple statements such as "two plus two equals four" and "water usually freezes at temperatures below freezing point" but expect nevertheless comments "Naam is boasting with his maths capabilities and knowledge of physics!" No need for insults. OTB has been very civil the past few weeks. How about we keep it that way?
October 12, 201114 yr Then why post the total national debt followed by number of inhabitants? to show that both economic blocs are rather similar and will have a future similar taxpayer structure as well as to answer the question "What backs up the Euro, croissants, wine, German sausage and cheese?" but that again is obviously too sophisticated for some "outside the box" participants. in future i will limit myself to simple statements such as "two plus two equals four" and "water usually freezes at temperatures below freezing point" but expect nevertheless comments "Naam is boasting with his maths capabilities and knowledge of physics!" No need for insults. OTB has been very civil the past few weeks. How about we keep it that way? where, pray tell, are the insults in my posting? or was i perhaps "boasting" again?
October 13, 201114 yr Author As for revenue/interest ratio.... Yes it is interesting that even now the US through their income via taxation cannot even pay the interest on the debt so none of the debt gets touched/paid down. Then let the EU (and US) do what people do - restructure their debt. If you can't even pay the interest, how can you restructure the debt? You can spread it out over a longer period... but I don't see that that helps. If you reduce the interest payable, that's not restructuring; that's a disguised form of robbery from the people who lent you the money. If you default, nobody will lend you money ever again. And as one of Naam's unsophisticated posters, I take part in the discussion because I want to find out what the possible answers are... and, as Tombkk says, it's quite clear that ThaiVisa posters know better than the Governments of the Eurozone (or the US) how to solve the debt problems. I certainly don't!
October 13, 201114 yr Then let the EU (and US) do what people do - restructure their debt. If you can't even pay the interest, how can you restructure the debt? You can spread it out over a longer period... but I don't see that that helps. If you reduce the interest payable, that's not restructuring; that's a disguised form of robbery from the people who lent you the money. If you default, nobody will lend you money ever again. This is a problem....There is no restructuring.... There is only cutting expenditures to match or preferably be below your income. Instead what they do is raise their own credit limit over & over & over. Now that does not come free of course.... Because they cannot even now pay the interest alone. Increase the debt by another trillion a year & guess what happens with that interest? So far they instead raise the debt ceiling a trillion or two while promising to find a trillion or two in cuts over the next TEN YEARS Yet they need a increase every year of a trillion or two & it will accelerate because again that is how interest on big then bigger debt works. So one or two trillion in cuts over ten years.....Yet they will need at least 20 Trillion in credit expansion by then. Sounds good eh?
October 13, 201114 yr So far they instead raise the debt ceiling a trillion or two while promising to find a trillion or two in cuts over the next TEN YEARS You don't need to be very sophisticated to notice that when they talk of cuts it's always over a period of several years - apparently to make the number sound more impressive. When in fact the budgets continue to rise year after year.
October 13, 201114 yr So far they instead raise the debt ceiling a trillion or two while promising to find a trillion or two in cuts over the next TEN YEARS You don't need to be very sophisticated to notice that when they talk of cuts it's always over a period of several years - apparently to make the number sound more impressive. When in fact the budgets continue to rise year after year. That is very true yet it seems that many voters never notice that obvious flaw. Although it does appear more folks are waking up & taking a look these days. To be expected.....when folks start to actually feel the results then they react. Sadly it is pretty far down the drain by that point
October 13, 201114 yr As for revenue/interest ratio.... Yes it is interesting that even now the US through their income via taxation cannot even pay the interest on the debt so none of the debt gets touched/paid down. Then let the EU (and US) do what people do - restructure their debt. 1. If you can't even pay the interest, how can you restructure the debt? You can spread it out over a longer period... but I don't see that that helps. If you reduce the interest payable, that's not restructuring; that's a disguised form of robbery from the people who lent you the money. If you default, nobody will lend you money ever again. And as one of Naam's unsophisticated posters, I take part in the discussion because I want to find out what the possible answers are... and, as Tombkk says, it's quite clear that ThaiVisa posters know better than the Governments of the Eurozone (or the US) how to solve the debt problems. 2.I certainly don't! 1. an often used "friendly" restructuring, which is acceptable to most creditors, is to reduce nominal (alternatively using step-up) interest but extend maturities and add a variety of "sweeteners". that's how the biggest default, lasting 8-10 years, during the 80s (more than a dozen emerging economies) was solved by the so-called "Brady" restructuring. http://www.people.hbs.edu/besty/projfinportal/SSB%20Brady%20Primer.pdf 2. neither do i.
October 13, 201114 yr Author Brady bond restructuring involves a partial default (on the basis that to get some of the money back is better than getting none). I've just heard a Paribas director (Lawrence Parisot, I think) say that the way ahead for the Eurozone is greater integration of Europe (including France, who rarely do what the EC says, and Britain) Yeow!
October 13, 201114 yr Brady bond restructuring involves a partial default (on the basis that to get some of the money back is better than getting none). I've just heard a Paribas director (Lawrence Parisot, I think) say that the way ahead for the Eurozone is greater integration of Europe (including France, who rarely do what the EC says, and Britain) Yeow! "to get some money back" did not apply. fact was that creditors gained (two exemptions) when the financial bottom line (NPV) was taken into consideration. the exceptions (default on Bradies) were Ecuador and Argentina who each defaulted on one of their Brady bonds. that both countries defaulted on other bonds too (1999, 2001 and 2009) is a different story.
October 14, 201114 yr Then let the EU (and US) do what people do - restructure their debt. If you can't even pay the interest, how can you restructure the debt? You can spread it out over a longer period... but I don't see that that helps. If you reduce the interest payable, that's not restructuring; that's a disguised form of robbery from the people who lent you the money. If you default, nobody will lend you money ever again. This is a problem....There is no restructuring.... There is only cutting expenditures to match or preferably be below your income. Instead what they do is raise their own credit limit over & over & over. Now that does not come free of course.... Because they cannot even now pay the interest alone. Increase the debt by another trillion a year & guess what happens with that interest? So far they instead raise the debt ceiling a trillion or two while promising to find a trillion or two in cuts over the next TEN YEARS Yet they need a increase every year of a trillion or two & it will accelerate because again that is how interest on big then bigger debt works. So one or two trillion in cuts over ten years.....Yet they will need at least 20 Trillion in credit expansion by then. Sounds good eh? Which part of "this thread is not about the USA" did you not understand? - Just asking.
October 14, 201114 yr Which part of "this thread is not about the USA" did you not understand? - Just asking. Which part of Central Banking do you not understand? Just wondering if you understand how it is all intertwined Yet my post never said USA did it? Do you not see the Euro doing just what I posted?
October 15, 201114 yr This is an interesting and informative thread. Let's not ruin it by getting too personal or nasty with one another. The thread isn't about the US, but both economic systems have some commonalities that preclude discussing one without the other. That said, the focus should be on the Eurozone.
October 21, 201114 yr Author I was watching a discussion on BBC yesterday between three 'top economists' (one was Master of an Oxford college). One interesting point they made was that austerity is absolutely not the answer to the Eurozone's problems. Reason:- a debt mountain continues to increase because of interest charges. Therefore growth has got to be enough at least to stop the mountain growing, even if it involves a rather high rate of inflation. The road to growth has to be innovation, where the West will always outdo China because of its free political systems. But the social contract has to be renegotiated; no country can continue giving away money which it hasn't got. Greece, Italy, the UK, and probably Spain and Portugal (I'm not sure what they're doing), have got it wrong.
October 21, 201114 yr I was watching a discussion on BBC yesterday between three 'top economists' (one was Master of an Oxford college). One interesting point they made was that austerity is absolutely not the answer to the Eurozone's problems. Reason:- a debt mountain continues to increase because of interest charges. Therefore growth has got to be enough at least to stop the mountain growing, even if it involves a rather high rate of inflation. The road to growth has to be innovation, where the West will always outdo China because of its free political systems. But the social contract has to be renegotiated; no country can continue giving away money which it hasn't got. Greece, Italy, the UK, and probably Spain and Portugal (I'm not sure what they're doing), have got it wrong. That is basically the problem they cannot address. The interest will kill them long before they can tool up any new innovations. In the mean time the governments are so bloated with overspending they will continue to raise their own credit limit to nose bleed heights. It is a game of musical chairs & when the music stops many will be without chairs....Or a rolling snowball getting bigger each day. I do not know if the Euro has an equivalent to this page showing debt? But the US & the UK have one & watching it will make you realize what would need to be innovated to keep pace. I do not think there is anything that can keep up. The problem is the size of the bloated governments & how they spend what they do not have. Why do they preach to citizens to try to live within their means? Yet they are the worst example of any. Governments need to live within their revenues & need to also let banks that made bad bets fail. http://cluaran.free.fr/debt.html http://www.usdebtclock.org/
October 21, 201114 yr Your links are a staggering blur of figures, Flying! It kind of puts things into perspective don't they?
October 24, 201114 yr The comment below has been reported in several newspapers. Made before NZ beat France on Sunday, but after Sarcarzy's baby was born. Do you think it's stress, or he don't like Camoron? Cameron’s insistence that the discussions involve all 27 members and not just the eurozone states angered French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who said, “You have lost a good opportunity to shut up”. He added, “We are sick of you criticising us and telling us what to do. You say you hate the euro and now you want to interfere in our meetings.”
October 24, 201114 yr I was watching a discussion on BBC yesterday between three 'top economists' (one was Master of an Oxford college). I heard a discussion between two eminent economists on Radio 4 one time. Given the same set of figures they came to completely opposite conclusions. As that great economist JK Galbraith said: 'The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable'.
October 25, 201114 yr Author I was watching a discussion on BBC yesterday between three 'top economists' (one was Master of an Oxford college). I heard a discussion between two eminent economists on Radio 4 one time. Given the same set of figures they came to completely opposite conclusions. As that great economist JK Galbraith said: 'The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable'. That's why I put 'top economists' in inverted commas; I don't trust experts either. But the bit I quoted did seem to make a lot of sense.
October 27, 201114 yr Author Well, 'Joan of Arc" kept her promise, to have something in place before the end of October. 50% write-off of bank debts for Greece, bailout fund to be raised to a trillion Euros... and other measures, one of which actually mentions 'growth'. Now where do we go from here?
October 27, 201114 yr Well, 'Joan of Arc" kept her promise, to have something in place before the end of October. 50% write-off of bank debts for Greece, bailout fund to be raised to a trillion Euros... and other measures, one of which actually mentions 'growth'. Now where do we go from here? They kicked the can in a big way & it grew accordingly..... If I had to guess....It is a Euphoria that will be short lived.
October 27, 201114 yr Gamble it all in Monte Carlo. I suppose that's one of the reasons I'm not a Minister for Finance. Second choice; Drink. I know that's a long shot, but until you've tried everything, how can you truly dispair? SC
October 28, 201114 yr Well, 'Joan of Arc" kept her promise, to have something in place before the end of October. 50% write-off of bank debts for Greece, bailout fund to be raised to a trillion Euros... and other measures, one of which actually mentions 'growth'. Now where do we go from here? They kicked the can in a big way & it grew accordingly..... If I had to guess....It is a Euphoria that will be short lived. i [not so] humbly beg to differ Flying. as far as Greece is concerned the can was not kicked and the euphoria will last for quite some time till the "day of reckoning", meaning "will those who agreed yesterday to accept a haircut cum technical default stick to their promises". on that the jury is still out and we won't know for months to come. yesterday's result will also give a breather for the other ClubMed PIGS which was important to achieve. in 6-9 months we'll know more but in the meantime dwarf investors (like me) have a possibility to make hay as long as the sun shines. those 4% across the board since last week means the food for my dogs is secured till Christmas p.s. interesting is the fact that global markets are euphoric but no real movement of Greek sovereign debt. reason: partly because the haircut was already discounted / priced in and partly because nothing is [yet] secured.
October 28, 201114 yr Author Buying an expensive bit of time. Next stop: Italy. http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2011/07/sovereign-debt-crisis
October 28, 201114 yr i [not so] humbly beg to differ Flying. as far as Greece is concerned the can was not kicked and the euphoria will last for quite some time till the "day of reckoning", meaning "will those who agreed yesterday to accept a haircut cum technical default stick to their promises". on that the jury is still out and we won't know for months to come. yesterday's result will also give a breather for the other ClubMed PIGS which was important to achieve. in 6-9 months we'll know more but in the meantime dwarf investors (like me) have a possibility to make hay as long as the sun shines. those 4% across the board since last week means the food for my dogs is secured till Christmas p.s. interesting is the fact that global markets are euphoric but no real movement of Greek sovereign debt. reason: partly because the haircut was already discounted / priced in and partly because nothing is [yet] secured. Yes from what is being said so far Greece will just say no Senior EU officials were left admitting that there was no agreement on how the deal would translate into a reduction in the Greek debt.Greek opposition parties to the Left and Right united to condemn the eurozone deal amid mounting social conflict. Antonis Samaras, the conservative opposition leader, said: “We are not closer to the solution but are faced with nine years of collapse and poverty.” Dimitris Papadimoulis, a Left-wing MP, said new EU powers in the agreement to impose austerity measures on Greece had a conflict of interest. “Those who monitor us do not have our interests in mind,” he said. “Their priority is that we pay back our loans.” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8854382/Eurozone-bail-out-holes-emerge-in-the-grand-solution-to-solve-EU-debt-crisis.html But at the end of the day I do think the euphoria will be very short & much shorter than 6-9 months. I will be very pleasantly surprised if we do not hear screams before Xmas. Good on you though if you have found some profit in it.
October 28, 201114 yr Buying an expensive bit of time. Next stop: Italy. What is interesting is to watch all this scurrying over Greece when Italy, Portugal or Spain waits in the wings. Greece will seem like a fly compared to those.
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