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Posted

The best chance you have is that the exporters start to get upset at the prospect of a baht that's too strong, I wouldn't hold my breath for any positive news out of the uK that can help.

Had that situation already and result was BoT don't want to interfere; but then when moving the otherway too swiftly they did take action, one can only guess at why they apparrently have a target of strong bht ; so they can pay off forieng debts maybe, or help some biz expanding abroad or keeping a certain someone's money worth less coming back in; I don't know, but the policy seems to be for a strong bht not weaker, so I'd say best not not to hold out for action to weaken from the Thai side.

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Posted

The best chance you have is that the exporters start to get upset at the prospect of a baht that's too strong, I wouldn't hold my breath for any positive news out of the uK that can help.

Had that situation already and result was BoT don't want to interfere; but then when moving the otherway too swiftly they did take action, one can only guess at why they apparrently have a target of strong bht ; so they can pay off forieng debts maybe, or help some biz expanding abroad or keeping a certain someone's money worth less coming back in; I don't know, but the policy seems to be for a strong bht not weaker, so I'd say best not not to hold out for action to weaken from the Thai side.

My sence from watching the markets is that BOT really does want THB around 48, already at 47 the exporters are starting to make noises so I do expect some form of intervention, I just hope it's not another 25bp off the base rate otherwise we're all in trouble. It'll be interesting to see the BOT foriegn reserve numbers when they're published to see how much the recent weakening/strengthening excerse has cost them, it might just balance out and turn out to have been a zero sum game, in which case that'll be a good indicator for their future strategy I would think.

I also agree the West "appears" to be in the ascendancy although there's not much other than spin to support that in the UK, the fundamentals therefore remain I think very much in favour of the Thai economy at this moment in time.

Posted

Dont be surprised to see interest rates going up in the UK in the near future.. That will then sttrengthen the pound

Not this year and not next year either.

Posted

Dont be surprised to see interest rates going up in the UK in the near future.. That will then sttrengthen the pound

The powers that be would rather plow more printed money in to buying thier own bonds to make sure that does not happen; as has been done already. They know the over leveraged system can't cope with higher rates. So this is long term negative / weaker tide on the pound.

(My take anyway)

Posted

The best chance you have is that the exporters start to get upset at the prospect of a baht that's too strong, I wouldn't hold my breath for any positive news out of the uK that can help.

Nonsense. The UK economy came roaring back today on the news a Biro was sold in a WH Smith in Tadcaster, ahem.

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Posted

Dont be surprised to see interest rates going up in the UK in the near future.. That will then sttrengthen the pound

Don't be surprised to see the number of predictions going up of interest rate movements resulting in the strengthening of the pound.
Posted

I noticed today 1-7-2013 that a website I use to see all the Thai banks current exchange rate listings shows that all of the Thai banks haven't updated their exchange rates since Friday 6-28. Is this a common practice or is there another reason for this. Thank you.

Posted

The Carney effect?

Sent from my i-mobile IQ 2 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Not at all, this is all on the Thai side - it's simply Asian markets settling down and continuing their strengthening after the US Fed anounced they would not be stopping QE any time soon.

Posted

Yesterday (Tues) I transferred enough GBP to satisfy the regulations concerning a visa extension on the grounds of retirement.

Nationwide International - Bangkok Bank.

I was amazed it showed up as a deposit this morning (Wed), less than 24hrs.

After all fees I got 46.7baht per £1

Could have been better but I'm reasonably happy with that.

Posted

The Carney effect?

Sent from my i-mobile IQ 2 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Not at all, this is all on the Thai side - it's simply Asian markets settling down and continuing their strengthening after the US Fed anounced they would not be stopping QE any time soon.
That was yesterday.
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Posted

The Carney effect?

Sent from my i-mobile IQ 2 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Not at all, this is all on the Thai side - it's simply Asian markets settling down and continuing their strengthening after the US Fed anounced they would not be stopping QE any time soon.
That was yesterday.

And gee, guess what, it's the same again today!

Now that Carney has said rates will not rise and QE is dead, GBP/THB is a one way bet, wheee, 46.94 as I write, I wonder where it will stop!!

Posted

Now that Carney has said rates will not rise and QE is dead, GBP/THB is a one way bet, wheee, 46.94 as I write, I wonder where it will stop!!

About 10 satang lower so far. How exciting!
Posted

The Carney effect?

Sent from my i-mobile IQ 2 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Not at all, this is all on the Thai side - it's simply Asian markets settling down and continuing their strengthening after the US Fed anounced they would not be stopping QE any time soon.
That was yesterday.

And gee, guess what, it's the same again today!

Now that Carney has said rates will not rise and QE is dead, GBP/THB is a one way bet, wheee, 46.94 as I write, I wonder where it will stop!!

50-55 where it should be - very strong support at 47

Posted
That was yesterday.

And gee, guess what, it's the same again today!

Now that Carney has said rates will not rise and QE is dead, GBP/THB is a one way bet, wheee, 46.94 as I write, I wonder where it will stop!!

50-55 where it should be - very strong support at 47

You've not been reading the papers, I can tell:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10161091/Markets-rise-but-pound-slumps-after-Mark-Carney-and-Mario-Draghi-interventions.html

Posted

50-55 where it should be - very strong support at 47

TT Rate 46.5763

50 by the end of the month.

Through the simple law of averages, if you keep repeating that same mantra, every day of every month, you are bound to be correct at some point thus it takes all the fun and any skill out of it.

Posted
That was yesterday.

And gee, guess what, it's the same again today!

Now that Carney has said rates will not rise and QE is dead, GBP/THB is a one way bet, wheee, 46.94 as I write, I wonder where it will stop!!

50-55 where it should be - very strong support at 47

You've not been reading the papers, I can tell:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10161091/Markets-rise-but-pound-slumps-after-Mark-Carney-and-Mario-Draghi-interventions.html

So; I hate to say I told u so......

But its exactly what I said last week ......

Ie govs are Committed to low rates and QE to buy bonds/ gilts if needs be.

Next it'll be Shaloms turn.

Posted

Actually I've been saying this for ages more generally:

The hole system is on edge of bankruptcy, governments can't meet the deficits and there is no otherway but to keep interest rates near zero and print money to pay for everything. Alls the chat to the contrary is just hot air to keep illusion and trust in value of the dollar.

Posted

Interesting report from the pru; only averages but still should raise thoughts in people as to how inflation / the value of money has changed and how it will be if likely tradjectory continues of money printing and shrinking "benefits" etc

"""""

Families face a total bill of £1.8m to run a home over the course of their lives, a study has found.

The lion's share of the families' costs are taken up by an estimated £508,000 on expenses including mortgages, rent, repairs, energy bills and council tax.

Recreation and culture is the second largest expense at £230,000 - reflecting the "relatively high" quality of life enjoyed by many people in the UK, the Prudential study found.

Transport - including petrol costs, car insurance, rail season tickets and flights, make up the third biggest drain on family budgets at £212,000.

Families also spend £177,000 on food, £128,000 on restaurants and hotels, £70,000 on clothes almost £40,000 on alcohol and tobacco.

Prudential, which used Office for National Statistics (ONS) family spending figures, found that over the course of someone's lifetime the squeeze is at its worst between 30 and 49.

At this age, their annual costs are £45,000 a year on average, reflecting the expense of raising children.

By the time the head of the household has reached 65, by which time they are more likely to be mortgage-free and have seen their children fly the nest, annual living costs are estimated to have dropped to around £25,000 a year.

Vince Smith-Hughes, retirement expert at Prudential, said the figures show a "gulf" of around £14,000 a year between what the state pension will provide for a household in early retirement and what retirees actually need to live on.

He said: "To make up the difference, pensioners will have to dig deep into their savings or personal pension plans, unless they simply choose to go without."

""""

-sky news

Posted

50-55 where it should be - very strong support at 47

TT Rate 46.5763

50 by the end of the month.

Through the simple law of averages, if you keep repeating that same mantra, every day of every month, you are bound to be correct at some point thus it takes all the fun and any skill out of it.
But not this month unless the Thai baht trumps sterling weakness with a cherry on the top.
Posted

Actually I've been saying this for ages more generally:

The hole system is on edge of bankruptcy, governments can't meet the deficits and there is no otherway but to keep interest rates near zero and print money to pay for everything. Alls the chat to the contrary is just hot air to keep illusion and trust in value of the dollar.

...would that be the same $US that has appreciated more than 25% against gold this year?

Now as for the GBPTHB rate, jumping from 46.5 to 50 that would be a 7%+ leap. Maybe if Chalerm pushes all the other Thai cabinet ministers out of the plane to Dubai/HK to kiss hands with the Crook in Chief, that would have the desired effect. Guaranteed if he jumped out after them.

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