The Thai-Baht And The Future Of Farangs In Thailand

[StreetCowboy]

What the hell is wrong with ThaiVisa members today? Certain people should not be allowed to drink and post.

I followed two new story links from Facebook and both threads just just degenerated into people arguing about subjects which have nothing to with with the original story. In fact I cannot find any relation to the original story beyond the first page of both threads.

I hope you are all proud of yourselves and the pathetic way you carry on.

OK - I'll take it on the chin - I have no idea who dragged China into this discussion, but it went downhill from there and I was part of that downhill slide. To get back to the original topic, I stand by what I said at the start of the thread - a baht that is 30-50% stronger than the USD (or GBP/Euro) is not in Thailand's best interests economically or politically.

That opinion, and every other opinion expressed here, is pure speculation - some of us may not even live to see any longterm trends make themselves felt. Let's just try to enjoy whatever time we have left.

There's no point speculating. Edited February 23, 2013 by StreetCowboy

[Naam]

So and how we must live in Thailand when money value goes down 50 procent?

1. Get a job in Thailand

2. Vote with your feet and go elsewhere

3. Accept a lower standard of living and start growing your own food

There IS a fourth option, but I suspect that some folk find that option a little bleak. In its own way, Option 4 requires as much commitment as any of the above : you just dont have to maintain it for the long term.

there is a fifth option.

those who's income is a multiple of their expenses don't care, assuming the like to live in Thailand.

[diddums]

What the hell is wrong with ThaiVisa members today? Certain people should not be allowed to drink and post.

I followed two new story links from Facebook and both threads just just degenerated into people arguing about subjects which have nothing to with with the original story. In fact I cannot find any relation to the original story beyond the first page of both threads.

I hope you are all proud of yourselves and the pathetic way you carry on.

Sorry Dad

[scotinsiam]

There are many "retired" economists here who enjoy ranting their theories and proving why they are smarter than the rest and trying to predict the future I suspect many people here just want to have enough for their daily living. No point running them down. When it comes to $$$ the simplest theory work Save hard, spend wisely and be content. Happiest way to be a human being

Lawrence, its all well and good to make such noble pronouncements, but that assumes that Farang will even be employed in Thailand in 10 years time, and it also makes no room for those of us who have worked our entire lives and have no particular desire to drag our sorry butts onto a Skytrain every morning. There IS a school of thought here in Oz that says men go downhill a lot faster than women in retirement, but that was for a generation that didnt seem to know mjuch beyond work other than smoking, drinking and gambling. My experience is that they threw themselves into each of those pursuits with reckless enthusiasm, but our health system is paying for it as I type this.

(those in specialist industries such as oil and gas may smirk at my prediction above re Farang working in Thailand, but I guess time will tell)

)

I do work in O&G and see the issues also, years ago there were expats all over the world working in the industry. Now due to many factors this is no longer the case in many locations - Now it is normally only some specialized trades and upper management roles held by "Western" people.

I think the next generation of "Western" people looking to work in expatriate roles will find it much more difficult. I am glad I am not a teenager in the UK just now.

[thenervoussurgeon]

I just happened to read an article in the China post from a couple of days ago,they reckoned it was time to sell the baht as it is going to go down because of the banks have to much debt that will not be able to be repaid .

[stingray]

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

There was a time in the early 90ties, where the Thaibaht was 25 to the $, 17 to the CHF and 12 to the Deutsch Mark and noone was whining or complaining about it. Tourists was here as well.

Noone would invest, if the currency wil fall. When invest (for example buy Property, Car os what ever) have to pay and when sell lose half of the money, when transfer back to Europe, if the Baht would lose on valuation. Think a bit: You buy a Condo for 2 Mill and you are not beable to sell it for 4 Mill, if the Baht would lose the value for 50%. Some peaple not want to living here for ever and maybe have to tranfer money back to Europe.

Also imported items and Petrol would become much more expensive if the Baht will fall. Who would like to pay 60 Baht or more for the Petrol? Not only Petrol, all things would be more expensive, because transportation goes up, when petrol increase.

So sould not always complain about the Thaibaht. The way it actually is, it's not bad at all.

Edited February 23, 2013 by stingray

[clockman]

Never despair, there is the lack of tranparency in the Thai economy!, after 2015, could be a rocky road for Thailand?

[wooloomooloo]

I just happened to read an article in the China post from a couple of days ago,they reckoned it was time to sell the baht as it is going to go down because of the banks have to much debt that will not be able to be repaid .

By my reckoning LOS is only five or six years behind the UK. Living on a tide of easy credit and soon enough...

[Orangutan]

 

 

[

Good for you, but most European countries will freeze the pension if they know / find out that the pensioner is not living (for a certain amount of days in the year) in the Country where they receive the Pension

[/quote

They have been doing that for years if you are a New zealander] and I never counted on getting a government pension from them.

Also the nz$ is around 24.7 to the bhat and I have been here 10 years and it has been known to hit 22 so you usa and uk and Europeans at last you are joining the real world.

You guys have had it too good for too long now you are paying the price of government bad management and over spending

 

I can claim my pension outside UK and get increase if in certain Asian countries. the Thais have also been having it good with currency being weak they way it was with exports and tourism. If unemployment soars and debts are not repaid nobody will be having it to good here. USA UK and Europe are the real world, NZ, well good for Hobbit films but cannot be compared to USA UK and Europe when talking real world.

 

Please present some information to suggest that any of the negative things that fill your imagination, fantasy world will come true. The three credit rating agencies think Thailand is doing well and has a stable low unemployment future. I think they know a bit more than you. Why would you pull this kind of nonsense out of the hat. The UK is in a triple dip recession and about to have it's credit rating lowered by the same agencies that are saying nothing but good things about Thailand. You are way off base. If not present some information that supports your wild unreal ideas.

Oh your referring to the same three credit rating agencies in the U.S. that didn't see the 2007-2008 global financial crisis coming huh!

[Naam]

I just happened to read an article in the China post from a couple of days ago,they reckoned it was time to sell the baht as it is going to go down because of the banks have to much debt that will not be able to be repaid .

By my reckoning LOS is only five or six years behind the UK. Living on a tide of easy credit and soon enough...

there's a lot more to reckon which will drive the Baht down:

-Thais smoking in one-way streets,

-Insurgents in Waziristan sympathising with Thai Muslims down south,

-Russian shoplifters in Pattaya,

-Farangs eating less Som Tam,

-Ladyboys importing Estrogen,

-Moody's cutting UK's AAA rating,

-Haze in Chiang Mai area,

-Expats having wet dreams...

[theblether]

Blether's predication about the China invasion makes logical sense, but it just has not been what I have seen. When you see Chinese tourists in Thailand, they seem to almost always be in a large tour group and ushered around by a guide. Thais do not seem overly impressed with some of their habits, such as spitting. They also seem much more keen to argue in public.

But it is a double edged sword. As the standard of living increases in Thailand, women will be less enamored by the prospect of being auctioned off to the highest bidder.

They're only following the pattern that we in the West followed, they'll start with guided tours and package holidays and once they get their confidence up in regards to overseas travel they'll start travelling independently.

I did hear mention in Chiang Mai of some Chinese travelling independently already. China is a bit off the curve as it was a closed society for so long, within very few years the Chinese will be everywhere and I say.....good!!

ps. You're right about the Thais hating their spitting, it repulses Thais.

Edited February 23, 2013 by theblether

[TommoPhysicist]

I did hear mention in Chiang Mai of some Chinese travelling independently already. China is a bit off the curve as it was a closed society for so long, within very few years the Chinese will be everywhere and I say.....good!!

The Chinese don't much like foreigners, they are self contained tourists.

If Thailand wasn't full of foreigners (Thais) they might consider staying.

Plenty of Chinese guys on scooters in CM, with a Chinese girl on the back.

They bring their own women with them, I see no shortage of Chinese women.

Edited February 23, 2013 by TommoPhysicist

[Dancealot]

What the hell is wrong with ThaiVisa members today? Certain people should not be allowed to drink and post.

I followed two new story links from Facebook and both threads just just degenerated into people arguing about subjects which have nothing to with with the original story. In fact I cannot find any relation to the original story beyond the first page of both threads.

I hope you are all proud of yourselves and the pathetic way you carry on.

Sorry Dad

Between the taxi driver and your answer i vote for the combination of your replies

[kennedy]

Well, off to free food and booze tonight " new house party " along with karaoke.Now if I can find my goddam earplugs I might survive. I can hear them from here. All off key.

[thenervoussurgeon]

I just happened to read an article in the China post from a couple of days ago,they reckoned it was time to sell the baht as it is going to go down because of the banks have to much debt that will not be able to be repaid .

By my reckoning LOS is only five or six years behind the UK. Living on a tide of easy credit and soon enough...

there's a lot more to reckon which will drive the Baht down:

-Thais smoking in one-way streets,

-Insurgents in Waziristan sympathising with Thai Muslims down south,

-Russian shoplifters in Pattaya,

-Farangs eating less Som Tam,

-Ladyboys importing Estrogen,

-Moody's cutting UK's AAA rating,

-Haze in Chiang Mai area,

-Expats having wet dreams...

Naam

you have a very nasty way of poo-pooing anything that does not gell with what you say ,its not nice and its not clever ,many of us are not financial wizards ,but just write on here what we read ,its not us having wet dreams ,i suggest you modify your posts a little ,you really do come over as a bit of a a prat ,just saying ,its not meant to be rude.

[diddums]

I just happened to read an article in the China post from a couple of days ago,they reckoned it was time to sell the baht as it is going to go down because of the banks have to much debt that will not be able to be repaid .

By my reckoning LOS is only five or six years behind the UK. Living on a tide of easy credit and soon enough...

there's a lot more to reckon which will drive the Baht down:

-Thais smoking in one-way streets,

-Insurgents in Waziristan sympathising with Thai Muslims down south,

-Russian shoplifters in Pattaya,

-Farangs eating less Som Tam,

-Ladyboys importing Estrogen,

-Moody's cutting UK's AAA rating,

-Haze in Chiang Mai area,

-Expats having wet dreams...

Naam

you have a very nasty way of poo-pooing anything that does not gell with what you say ,its not nice and its not clever ,many of us are not financial wizards ,but just write on here what we read ,its not us having wet dreams ,i suggest you modify your posts a little ,you really do come over as a bit of a a prat ,just saying ,its not meant to be rude.

His poo poo don't stink you might say

[sandmike]

Many pages ago someone mentioned the rule of 72, and used to it show how long it would take for your investment to double at a known fixed interest rate.

There is another use for it, with a fixed income (UK pensions in Thailand anyone ??) dividing 72 by the (expected) inflation rate gives the time in years for your buying power to drop by half.

BTW you need to take into account that food prices seem to be increasing at a much faster rate than the stated inflation rate, but you can plug in your own inflation rate and the calculation gives some kind of idea when the reduced buying power of your income means that you'd start to struggle on a fixed income.

Good Luck

Edited February 23, 2013 by sandmike

[Locationthailand]

Simply earn in Thailand and get paid in THB.

[wooloomooloo]

I just happened to read an article in the China post from a couple of days ago,they reckoned it was time to sell the baht as it is going to go down because of the banks have to much debt that will not be able to be repaid .

By my reckoning LOS is only five or six years behind the UK. Living on a tide of easy credit and soon enough...

there's a lot more to reckon which will drive the Baht down:

-Thais smoking in one-way streets,

-Insurgents in Waziristan sympathising with Thai Muslims down south,

-Russian shoplifters in Pattaya,

-Farangs eating less Som Tam,

-Ladyboys importing Estrogen,

-Moody's cutting UK's AAA rating,

-Haze in Chiang Mai area,

-Expats having wet dreams...

Naam

you have a very nasty way of poo-pooing anything that does not gell with what you say ,its not nice and its not clever ,many of us are not financial wizards ,but just write on here what we read ,its not us having wet dreams ,i suggest you modify your posts a little ,you really do come over as a bit of a a prat ,just saying ,its not meant to be rude.

There aren't too many financial wizards in the world, thenervoussurgeon. None that frequent these boards all day, anyway.

[taninthai]

Simply earn in Thailand and get paid in THB.

exactly well said loads of ferangs doing well over here earning bht , the low pound just makes your holidays back to the uk cheaper

[elliss]

it used to be caviar and cigars

now, we dine at the market bars ,

large singa beer or a chang,

now , we share a leo from, a can.

cow pak moo? cow pak ghi ?

koun farang , why you cry.

r

[Meetoo]

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

Correct as they don't have to! They now have captured new markets and plain & simple is that they now have the huge influx of Chinese, Singaporeans & Russians so they really don't need us anynore and /or at all because these markets arerowing like really fast!!

[Naam]

nervoussurgeon said:

Naam

you have a very nasty way of poo-pooing anything that
does not gell with what you say ,its not nice and its not clever ,many
of us are not financial wizards ,but just write on here what we read
,its not us having wet dreams ,i suggest you modify your posts a little
,you really do come over as a bit of a a prat ,just saying ,its not
meant to be rude.

if you think my sarcastic way to put things in perspective is poo-pooing

i can't help it. from my point of view it's a much nicer way than a blunt

"that's bullshit!"

[doggie888888]

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

Correction, not all foreigners, but only some Western foreigners. Affluent Westeners and Asians will still come. Thailand had more Singaporean visitors last year than British and their population is 15 times smaller.

Thats because they catch a bus/plane on friday night to get to Hatyai for cheap shopping like clothes. They start going back to Singapore on the Saturday evening through to Sunday evening. Most are gone by Monday morning unless there is a holiday in Singapore. Thats where the statistics are taken from.

Tourists...Not really. People who cant afford to survive I surpose, in Singapore

Singaporeans shopping for cheap clothes hatyai, brits shopping for cheap women/men/in-betweens in pattaya...what's the difference?

[thenervoussurgeon]

nervoussurgeon said:

Naam

you have a very nasty way of poo-pooing anything that

does not gell with what you say ,its not nice and its not clever ,many

of us are not financial wizards ,but just write on here what we read

,its not us having wet dreams ,i suggest you modify your posts a little

,you really do come over as a bit of a a prat ,just saying ,its not

meant to be rude.

if you think my sarcastic way to put things in perspective is poo-pooing

i can't help it. from my point of view it's a much nicer way than a blunt

"that's bullshit!"

Old Chinese proverb.

when you have nothing to say ,best say nothing

[MrWorldwide]

Just got back from a screening of the 'The Impossible'. While it's not going to win any awards (except possibly special effects), it puts a lot of things in perspective. We can argue the toss about money, about Thailand, about the price of tea in Botswana - it's all just grist for the mill. I often wonder how the Japanese, Indonesians and even Californians deal with living on major fault lines, or the South Koreans with their northern neighbours, but its pretty simple : they just do it.

Seize the day, people, and to hell with our crystal balls.

[how241]

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

It's already happened and Thailand still has tourists.

There's a noticeable increase in tourism from non-Western countries. Loads of Indians, Chinese, Russians rockin' up at Swampy.

I guess the days when Westerners could regard Thailand as their own private Disneyland are coming to an abrupt and ignominious end with Tom, Dick and Harry's barstools being taken over by Raj, Xeng and Dmitri.

+1

[Naam]

nervoussurgeon said:

Naam

you have a very nasty way of poo-pooing anything that

does not gell with what you say ,its not nice and its not clever ,many

of us are not financial wizards ,but just write on here what we read

,its not us having wet dreams ,i suggest you modify your posts a little

,you really do come over as a bit of a a prat ,just saying ,its not

meant to be rude.

if you think my sarcastic way to put things in perspective is poo-pooing

i can't help it. from my point of view it's a much nicer way than a blunt

"that's bullshit!"

Old Chinese proverb.

when you have nothing to say ,best say nothing

i had something to say!

[impulse]

Just got back from a screening of the 'The Impossible'. While it's not going to win any awards (except possibly special effects), it puts a lot of things in perspective. We can argue the toss about money, about Thailand, about the price of tea in Botswana - it's all just grist for the mill. I often wonder how the Japanese, Indonesians and even Californians deal with living on major fault lines, or the South Koreans with their northern neighbours, but its pretty simple : they just do it.

Seize the day, people, and to hell with our crystal balls.

Seize the day is great advice. But you can seize today without pissing away your tomorrow.

Perhaps it takes a crystal ball to beat the markets, but the fundamentals always hold- "spend less than you take in" and "those who don't study their history are doomed to repeat it".

Beyond that, I have no clue what's going to happen next, except it won't look exactly like I expect it to. If you had told me in early 1999 that I'd still be in Asia in 2013, I'd have laughed at you.

[phutoie2]

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

It's already happened and Thailand still has tourists.

There's a noticeable increase in tourism from non-Western countries. Loads of Indians, Chinese, Russians rockin' up at Swampy.

I guess the days when Westerners could regard Thailand as their own private Disneyland are coming to an abrupt and ignominious end with Tom, Dick and Harry's barstools being taken over by Raj, Xeng and Dmitri.

+1

It will snow in Phu Toei high street before we see the likes of Raj, Xeng and Dmitri sitting together on those bar stools, - get real.