Baht Moving Beyond Fundamentals: Bank Of Thailand

[cocopops]

I don't see a writer's credit for that Nation article. What's the point of it? So what if there are a percentage of lower economic class, opinionated foreigners here. Do people on TV really think those type of people represent even 30% to 40% of foreigners here? Probably more like 15%-20%. So what? What percentage of Thais here are clueless about the stock market, have conspiratorial ideas and are unhappy with their financial predicament? (oh and um..drink alcohol and frequent prostitutes).Think its only 15%-20%???

In what way does that article even qualify as journalism?

Even those 'poorest and stupidest' foreigners are spreading more money around

their immediate communities than 50%-75% of the Thais. Constantly parading the worst foreigners

here in the media only develops a stereotype which we all have to eventually contend with.

Crap journalism, spewing nonsense to meet a deadline.

Classic ThaiVisa!

[SGD]

The present strength of the Thai Baht is really bad for inward investors as your Pound/Euro/Dollar now gets around 1/3 less Baht than it did at the high point 5 years ago (68 Baht to the pound then 44 Baht now)

I presently only bring in the money I need for living expenses and I am waiting for a change back to better rates so that I can continue to invest in the Kingdom.

I love Thailand and her people with a passion but as I am an elderly man, and not a millionaire, I need to make sure that I get the maximum "bang for the buck" to ensure that my retirement will continue to be comfortable

I hope that this situation is temporary as the hard working people and companies in Thailand will obviously struggle to export at these rates and it will therefore hurt employment.

House prices, and rental charges in Thai Baht will now need to drop to attract customers in the international market with a consequent fall in present income for a lot of people who have already invested in Thailand

Other than cheaper imports I cannot see any positives in the present exchange rates

Excluding the shock of 1997 and the immediate aftermath, the high point for GBP was not 68 as you post but rather a much better 76 back in 2004. http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB&view=10Y

Also, if you are waiting for FX rates to improve dramatically before investing, I believe you will die waiting.

[xenophon]

Damn, they have woken up. I guess I will just have to beg ....

Yes, yes you are right. I, and many others, have known that the baht is defying gravity for months. Just wait 2 weeks before intervening, as I move my cash from THB to another climbing currency - the macropod. You delayed the devaluation for Thaksin in 1997, surely you can postpone intervention for me.

[baboon]

The present strength of the Thai Baht is really bad for inward investors as your Pound/Euro/Dollar now gets around 1/3 less Baht than it did at the high point 5 years ago (68 Baht to the pound then 44 Baht now)

I presently only bring in the money I need for living expenses and I am waiting for a change back to better rates so that I can continue to invest in the Kingdom.

I love Thailand and her people with a passion but as I am an elderly man, and not a millionaire, I need to make sure that I get the maximum "bang for the buck" to ensure that my retirement will continue to be comfortable

I hope that this situation is temporary as the hard working people and companies in Thailand will obviously struggle to export at these rates and it will therefore hurt employment.

House prices, and rental charges in Thai Baht will now need to drop to attract customers in the international market with a consequent fall in present income for a lot of people who have already invested in Thailand

Other than cheaper imports I cannot see any positives in the present exchange rates

Excluding the shock of 1997 and the immediate aftermath, the high point for GBP was not 68 as you post but rather a much better 76 back in 2004. http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB&view=10Y

Also, if you are waiting for FX rates to improve dramatically before investing, I believe you will die waiting.

A bloody insensitive way of putting it, but yes, I think you are correct.

[fletchsmile]

'Stock Market Correction Delights Poorest, Stupidest Expats'

I have often wondered what Thai citizens must think when they read some of comments on TV. Perhaps those stupid enough to continually debase Thailand, its traditions, the Immigration and its rules and regulations etc are also stupid enough to think that their comments are only being read by Farangs. Or perhaps they think their posts, apart from boosting their own ego, will actually be a tool to implement the change that they require and know what is best for Thailand! Now I do not need to wonder any more, the above link shows that TV posts are being read by many Thais and the verdict is that they are not impressed. Further comments on TV state that we are not really wanted here, really, now is that a surprise after reading posts that continually slag off our host country. If I were a Thai I would also think why should we welcome these Dickheads who just because they spend a few Bucks, Pounds, Euros or whatever continually criticise us as a race, our way of life, our traditions and our country in general. Unfortunately we all get tarred with the same brush, so those of us who are happy to live here, happy to accept that this is their country and are also happy to accept that things are done differently are being grouped with the few who give the Thai's good reason to dislike us. While I fully appreciate that a Forum is for discussion but why use it to insult our hosts and host country.Why criticise for criticisms sake? Constructive criticism, providing it is polite, is acceptable I am not hoping for miracles but hopefully some of the posts will be toned down for the benefit of all.

I thought the Not the Nation article was quite funny, and agree with some of your points.

I'm not quite sure that it "shows TV posts are being read by many Thais", though, given it's a spoof site, run I think by foreigners.

Also liked the popular list including the one about flights from Don Meuang to Suvarnabhumi aimed at foreigners who fly to the wrong airport. Now from a Keynesian point of view that could be good for the Thai economy

http://notthenation.com/2011/03/thai-begins-flights-from-don-muang-to-suvarnabhumi/

[Seismic]

The strengthening of the baht is not primarily of Thailand's making. The US, Japan and other countries printing lots of money to stimulate their economies - call it quantitative easing or whatever - is a major factor behind this. Falling exchange rates also increase the export competitiveness of the big boys in what is effectively an exchange rate war.

Due to lack of financial scale Thailand and many other smaller economies - can do little to protect themselves and their own export industries in the face of this onslaught - until/if/when other countries' policies begin to change - the baht will remain strong.

Yeah... I would not really say that Thailand is one of the smaller economies, maybe you should check your figures.

[sunny and hot]

The rich are getting richer by shipping out there baht to overseas banks whilst the poor suffer due to high inflation and increase costs. As an expat yes I to am suffering as my money comes from the UK but hey iot is still a better life over here than back in the UK problem is I do not spend as much as I used to which in turn has an effect on local business where I do my shopping so it is swings and roundabouts !!!!!!!!!

for the record: if the rich would ship out their Baht to overseas banks the Baht would fall, not strengthen.

this lesson is free of charge!

I know. For a minute there I was scratching my head thinking about my A level economics lesson and if I had smoked something before it!

Edited April 19, 2013 by sunny and hot

[puukao]

This is not a big deal. Baht to USD went from 34 to 30, then 28ish. didn't affect my 6-month stint at all. I bought a laptop when it was 30.50, and .... THIS IS IMPORTANT..... after a big move in the baht (US fiscal crisis averted) I had like 12 hours to exchange money before the rates were updated. so that helped a little bit, but not enough to change anything.

IF you are doomed when the currency goes from 34 to 28...you don't have enough money.

the fun part........wait for it.......is when the baht goes to 19. or lower....then the real fun begins.

[Guest]

Surely they have to do something soon.

It is not just the expats, just about all nationalities, which are being hit hard but the businesses that trade with overseas companies could find it getting rough with their customers seeking cheaper suppliers.

Inevitably it will hit the tourist areas with people who come here for a holiday and the ex-pat living off his pensions, finding their currency is no longer enough due to a 10 -25% loss in value in the last 6 months. Yes most expatswill stay and touristswill still come to Thailand but less Baht means less goods being bought.

This is made worse by inflation here which has been quite noticeable over the past year.

Will not hold my breath though, the powers that be in the Thai government will continue to do the same as always, talk but no action.

Like many, I do believe the strength of the baht will soon prove to be counterproductive to growth for Thailand. i also understand what it means when a person's wealth (Expats) is meaningfully affected by less Baht to the "X" I often see this 25% loss number tossed about. i know the USD is down about 6%, and the Euro has suffered. Honestly, i do not follow all world currencies. Which are down 25% relative to the Baht? Thanks...

[mickyboy]

Its a race to the bottom to see which country can become more 3rd World. In the New World Order, its more important to have

your currency be as sh**ty as possible to maintain your exports. The US is doing a good job of it, but its still early in the game.

not as good as the uk where we are sinking even more 6 years ago 72 bhat £1 now 44 £1 thats a real beating

[Dario]

If i am correct, in November 2009, it was the exact same situation (Eur/Thb at 37.5).

I can't recall, was it a big issue then?

Have I missed something? In November 2009 the Euro?ThB was at 49 Baht +. I just looked at the rates of SCB on November 19, 2009.

[wooloomooloo]

Like many, I do believe the strength of the baht will soon prove to be counterproductive to growth for Thailand.

My favourite hotel in my wife's hometown cost me £1200 in January. It will be closer £1700 at the present f/x for next November, in addition to an increase in their nightly rate.

I'm not prepared to pay the additional when I look at the math.

We'll have to slum it.

[Bikkii]

The rich are getting richer by shipping out there baht to overseas banks whilst the poor suffer due to high inflation and increase costs. As an expat yes I to am suffering as my money comes from the UK but hey iot is still a better life over here than back in the UK problem is I do not spend as much as I used to which in turn has an effect on local business where I do my shopping so it is swings and roundabouts !!!!!!!!!

for the record: if the rich would ship out their Baht to overseas banks the Baht would fall, not strengthen.

this lesson is free of charge!

I agree! But in all honesty, who will ship out their funds in over a week's markets? I earn Thai Baht so more the merrier! Try living in Australia with inflation so high, 3 of our cities in top ten cities in world for cost of living. Give me Thailand any day, lose a baht, gain a baht. I assure you, bang for buck will always be better here. If not for you, Phillipines, Cambodia, Laos etc may be your next home.

[wolf5370]

I think slowing down the construction business is a good idea - so many empty places and yet so much new building (and loss of rice and other crop fields). China ha s a serious problem stored up with 65 million odd empty homes (10 new empty cities a year - filled with house few can afford, and those that can afford don't want to live in due to their locations) - this fuels growth, and seems to be what Thailand is doing to. At some point all that investment is going to collapse (like many of the unlived-in and uncared-for houses I guess too) with nil ROI.

The strength of the Baht is not just the flip side of the weakness of the major currencies, if that were so it would not be performing so well against every other currency too - and all those other currencies would be likewise performing well against the major currencies (some are of course). Exchange rates for an export, manufacturing and tourist based country like Thailand is better low than high - few day to day items are imported anyway and much of the manufacturing is foreign owned so that is a lose-lose (parts are the same cost as shipped in but paid at source and labour and premises is more expensive as they are Thai based and directly affected by the exchange rate).

It is hard to see who are the winners here. The wealthy likely had their saving overseas, so have lost out there (and shipping it back loses money) - shipping it out now could earn, but only if the tide turned (no different from any other forex gamble). Exporters get slammed - producers/manufacturers get slammed - foreign investment gets slammed (as the risk of turn around looms - perhaps - and the ROI lessens due to the higher investment in local currency) - importers make more profit, but are unlikely to pass it on to the sales floor - foreign locally based industry is slammed every which way - tourist trade is slammed - trade reliant on tourists is slammed as same money buys less, but makes the same profit per item locally. Other than flag waving, who is the winner? and what is the incentive in not driving it down (it's not like inflation isn't also rising - and unemployment thanks to such as the minimum wage and, potentially, overseas owned factories rationalising) - is it really just an excuse to keep the interest rate up???

[beautifulthailand99]

It would seem that the baht is strong because of money invested in bonds ie straight forward money from abroad put into interest paying accounts here. So no real help to the domestic economy in fact a burden to it. Exports will go down as already seen in the rice market and so less money for the labour market to earn. It will not be noticed yet but over time manufacturers will move production elsewhere.. It could also happen as a crash with confidence lost in returns here as worties about a downturn fester. So then all monies withdrawn or even lost.. Simple economics yes. But people well banks are looking for gain here and joe blogs has no control as usual. The losers will be at the bottom of the food chain as usual and yes that includes us Expats.. Stickly rice and nam prik macam will taste very nice you will see.

I suspect most Thai's don't give a fig for what is written on here - you think too much !

[yoshiwara]

Last year some hot money was moving into Both HK and Singapore even though the interest rates there are virtually zero. The governments of both took action against the resulting additional pressures on housing prices. HK has a tight peg, Singapore has a moving basket peg. With Thailand there is no apparent peg and attractive interest rates to offer foreign monies looking for a home. Political instability is not on the immediate radar and confidence provided by continued Japanese investment in Thailand. To discover whether Thailand has a peculiar currency problem are there comparative issues in Malaysia or Philippines or Indonesia? One tool open to the TCB would be to reduce interest rates, but then a different set of expats would start complaining.

[mogoso]

If i am correct, in November 2009, it was the exact same situation (Eur/Thb at 37.5).

I can't recall, was it a big issue then?

Euro is comparatively the one that performed best, USD has been going down and GBP completely tanked.

Since Mar 2009 the Euro had been better than the dollar. But since 2011 the Euro has fared appreciably no better than the dollar

Mar 2009 Euro 47.03 Dollar 35.82

Mar 2010 Euro 43.75 Dollar 31.15

Mar 2011 Euro 42.33 Dollar 30.17

Mar 2012 Euro 40.12 Dollar 30.58

Apr 2013 Euro 37.65 Dollar 28.50

[A Member]

Surely they have to do something soon.

It is not just the expats, just about all nationalities, which are being hit hard but the businesses that trade with overseas companies could find it getting rough with their customers seeking cheaper suppliers.

Inevitably it will hit the tourist areas with people who come here for a holiday and the ex-pat living off his pensions, finding their currency is no longer enough due to a 10 -25% loss in value in the last 6 months. Yes most expatswill stay and touristswill still come to Thailand but less Baht means less goods being bought.

This is made worse by inflation here which has been quite noticeable over the past year.

Will not hold my breath though, the powers that be in the Thai government will continue to do the same as always, talk but no action.

Some great points in this post. PTP are totally distracted by a certain priority issue and I'm sure there is a certain pride in the Bat's strength so intervention, although necessary, is perhaps lose of face and the people who make these decisions don't have to worry where their next baht is coming from.

I live on pensions which are now worth less in baht than 10 years ago and as 1 of them has to go through 2 currency exchanges it really suffers. A friend has just returned home after a holiday here and from the day he arrived the exchange rate fell so by the end of his time he was having to be very careful which isn't exactly what a holiday is about unless you are a backpacker and there's no disrespect intended. My friend always takes a lot of gifts back but this time didn't and that's not good for the tourist industry, local shops and traders

[FLHR]

Good for Thailand; but, who's really reaping the benefits here???? I see inflation all over. The price of the ordinary staples of life are going up across the board so us foreigners and ordinary Thais are paying substantially more to exist. I know a lot of Thais are living better through lines of credit. I'm not rich so rather than changing dollars I've been tapping into my visa savings. If things aren't better when it comes time to extend that visa I will probably drop back to a tourist visa for a while and am considering moving back to the States. That's just me & my humble opinion though and I really hope this all blows over without heavy consequences for the average Thai & foreigner!

[uffe123]

This is getting worse every month. For someone who use their pension to live on, and have to exchange monies to live on have lost about 3K over the past month. Seems every time i go to the market the price has risen on all goods.

[Joe Mamma]

The farang is not really a part of the equation. Our impact is negligible. The foreign currency weakness is a concern for importation and global markets.

Maybe the Thai's could devalue the baht like the Chinese did to their money for years. Now it is biting China in the large proverbial ass though!

[bangkokburning]

Thailand is in a real bind insofar as its currency.

If it lowers rates, it will fuel inflation, building, financial and consumer bubbles.

If it prints money, the currency is for all intents debased. The US, Japan and UK can get away with this but not dodgy third world financial systems. Thailand is known throughout the world as a pretty sketchy place, its one saving grace at current is its currency. If it toys around with it too much, it will look like Philippines, not Malaysia. Having said that, I think the BOT will eventually go the QE route and the govt will use it fir public works. If the govt cronies pocket the cash and use it for real estate or it leaves the country that would be a problem. If the BOT uses the Fed method in which much of it ends up in stock market, that will also be another bubble and another huge issue.

BOT cares not a wit about us expats. What they care about is exports, tourism which is 7-10% gdp and jobs in general.

Thailand has always been a destination for a cheap holiday. It will remain so in the grand scheme. It will though lose all its luxury business. Thailand becomes in competition with Greece, Canaries, Carribean, etc... With usd nearing 10k to 1 Bali is a great value close to home for Ozzies and Kiwi's. My personal opinion on torism is the last five years numbers are bolstered by Chinese, Iranians, Indians and Arabs. Not big spenders and not repeat customers. Russians have been the latest cash cow replacing the swarm of UK comers. The political problems of last decade, rising baht, huge economic issues at home will leave Europeans and Americans non plussed about a return holiday here. Thailand is no longer exotic, its a holiday destination and so competes with every resort on the planet.

BOT must act, but I think it is trying to wait as long as possible to see China's move.

One thing sure, buying others currency always a dicey move. In todays world potentially perilous action to lower ones currency. Maybe its time to buy that submarine?

If you think Thailand has it bad, Phils peso is now 41+ to usd. Lucky they have no exports. Anyone thinking Phils offers better, you will be in for a horrible shock setting yourself up and living there.

It is indeed a race to the bottom and Thailand is in a real bind.

[Naam]

If i am correct, in November 2009, it was the exact same situation (Eur/Thb at 37.5).

I can't recall, was it a big issue then?

Not correct.

November 2009 it was a high of 50 and a low of 49 baht

bingo!

[Naam]

They should have done something about this a long time ago, but I suppose they're waiting for exports to fall through the floor & tourist numbers to dwindle to non-exsistant levels. On the first count that's not far off, & on the 2nd they are almost completely reliant on their Asian neighbours. I can foresee a time when the only Farangs left here are the long term expats not reliant on Money from abroad to sustain them.

Oh dear, how sad this is! So exports are at risk of falling through the floor, but in the meantime they continue to rise! And tourist numbers are at risk of dwindling to nothing but in the meantime they continue to rise also!! Tell me, are you a natural pessimist!

why spoiling a nice horror story with boring facts?

[Markaew]

Please note: Before making any comments on a thread involving monetary policy, posters are advised to read Not The Nation's excellent 'Stock Market Correction Delights Poorest, Stupidest Expats'

LOL. Shows just how stupid many expats on ThaiVisa are. That article makes them look really stupid indeed.

it's not the article Dave. some of the posters make themselves look really stupid. and it goes on since i joined Thaivisa 6½ years ago. sometimes it's amusing, quite often it is not when other TV-members are asking for advice and/or assistance and get plainly bullxxxxxed.

I disagree. We get a lot of good advise here. Especially about visas.

[Naam]

Surely they have to do something soon.

It is not just the expats, just about all nationalities, which are being hit hard but the businesses that trade with overseas companies could find it getting rough with their customers seeking cheaper suppliers.

Inevitably it will hit the tourist areas with people who come here for a holiday and the ex-pat living off his pensions, finding their currency is no longer enough due to a 10 -25% loss in value in the last 6 months. Yes most expatswill stay and touristswill still come to Thailand but less Baht means less goods being bought.

This is made worse by inflation here which has been quite noticeable over the past year.

Will not hold my breath though, the powers that be in the Thai government will continue to do the same as always, talk but no action.

Like many, I do believe the strength of the baht will soon prove to be counterproductive to growth for Thailand. i also understand what it means when a person's wealth (Expats) is meaningfully affected by less Baht to the "X" I often see this 25% loss number tossed about. i know the USD is down about 6%, and the Euro has suffered. Honestly, i do not follow all world currencies. Which are down 25% relative to the Baht? Thanks...

time frame start mid 2005-today

USD THB -33%

EUR THB -28%

GBP THB -41%

[Naam]

Please note: Before making any comments on a thread involving monetary policy, posters are advised to read Not The Nation's excellent 'Stock Market Correction Delights Poorest, Stupidest Expats'

LOL. Shows just how stupid many expats on ThaiVisa are. That article makes them look really stupid indeed.

it's not the article Dave. some of the posters make themselves look really stupid. and it goes on since i joined Thaivisa 6½ years ago. sometimes it's amusing, quite often it is not when other TV-members are asking for advice and/or assistance and get plainly bullxxxxxed.

I disagree. We get a lot of good advise here. Especially about visas.

of course you disagree because we are not talking about visas.

[Markaew]

LOL. Shows just how stupid many expats on ThaiVisa are. That article makes them look really stupid indeed.

it's not the article Dave. some of the posters make themselves look really stupid. and it goes on since i joined Thaivisa 6½ years ago. sometimes it's amusing, quite often it is not when other TV-members are asking for advice and/or assistance and get plainly bullxxxxxed.

I disagree. We get a lot of good advise here. Especially about visas.

of course you disagree because we are not talking about visas.

You made a generalization about advice and not specific advice. I believe when others share their experiences it is helpful about visas and other issues. If you re-read my post you will see I wasn't talking strictly about visas. I think you are more upset that someone disagreed with you.

If you need some help with your English, I'll be happy to help you.

Edited April 20, 2013 by Markaew

[LUSHGOAT]

As usual they will try fix it when its too late, my friend had a shop in Ireland selling Thai food but she had to close it because the the cost of importing the goods from Thailand was too high because of the exchange rate , I know its only a small shop but we are all feeling the pinch because of the exchange rate

Edited April 20, 2013 by LUSHGOAT

[Naam]

Markaew

If you need some help with your English, I'll be happy to help you.

i appreciate your help and offer in exchange help in five other languages. when do we start?