Baht weaker but stable after rate cut

[pendingo]

I take this report with a pinch of salt.

The latest exchange rate (barring what you get from the fiddling rip-off banks and not just in Thailand) is as follows: THB/GBP = 48.82,

THB/USD = 32.91, THB/AUD = 25.19.

Back in December last year the rate was nearly 52 THB to GBP.

I don't see much weakening there.

Remember folks it's always win win for the elite whatever the currencies are doing and lose lose for those of us at the bottom of the food chain.

[Berkshire]

I am no expert on high finance, but when we put all of the factors together it would seem devaluing the baht more would be a good thing.

The price of paddie has dropped again. Devaluing the baht would give rice farmers a needed boost in income without government subsidy.

Exporters of manufactured goods would benefit.

If there is more money in the system it will stimulate the economy.

Devaluation looks like a win/win situation for the Thai people.

Import costs of all raw materials and energy rise when currency devalues.

Local prices rise when currency devalues.

Malinvestment occurs when currency devalues.

Savings become worth less when currency devalues.

More money/credit in the system mathematically equals devaluation.

Devaluation is always a lose/lose proposition in the longer term.

Exactly. Everytime a currency goes up or down, it helps some and hurts others. It's never a win-win situation for everybody. And on TV, it's pretty clear that whining/whinging farangs want a weaker baht. But at least be honest. These guys don't want a weaker baht to help the economy or for any other reason but their own personal finances. The market dictates currency exchange rates, like it or not. Monetary policy (e.g., related to interest rates) is conducted for other reasons, usually to stimulate the economy (cut) or fight off inflation (raise), not to manipulate the currency exchange rate.

[TheAppletons]

48.82 ? From where ? ATM's also ?

Kasikom yesterday gave me 45.98 !!!

48.75 to 48.90 today....ATMs should give something similar (except you get nicked the 150-180 thb ATM fee)

http://superrichthai.com/

http://www.vasuexchange.com/

[loppylugs1]

Yeah I bet Kasikombank are staying quiet - yesterday they DROPPED their exchange rate to the pound from an already pitiful 46.8 to just 45.98 !!!

That is because you accepted their exchange rate (what it called dynamic?),should have said no and proceeded otherwise on the atm

Confusing issue though ,business leaders a month or so ago in newspapers were calling,no pleading, for exchange rate reduction for baht,only for BoT stating all is well. Military govt in,when elections in Jan take place may mean different statements

[spidermike007]

I am thinking 40 baht to the dollar sounds about right. That is certainly what I am hoping for. Does anyone think this is possible, or probable? Certainly hope so. It would defray the rather substantial costs of inflation here, in the past few years.

Go baby go. Keep dropping! Yeah!

[Daniel Boon]

I'm confused the article was about the official interest dropping not the baht being devalued. Is there a policy of devaluation? The Australian Reserve Bank has been dropping the official interest for some time now and there has not been talk of devaluation. The Aus dollar has dropped against the U.S. dollar but we are being told this is due mainly to the dollar strengthening.

[hawker9000]

I'm confused the article was about the official interest dropping not the baht being devalued. Is there a policy of devaluation? The Australian Reserve Bank has been dropping the official interest for some time now and there has not been talk of devaluation. The Aus dollar has dropped against the U.S. dollar but we are being told this is due mainly to the dollar strengthening.

You're correct ... kind of. Many here are confusing cause & effect. The intent in this case evidently was (according to the OP) to adjust interest rates for purposes of economic policy; the effect on exchange rate was a side-effect, although a predictable one. Naturally though, all else being equal (which it rarely is so this is an oversimplification...) money tends to follow returns so the cut in interest rates makes the baht slightly less desirable in terms of baht-denominated, interest bearing investments however, and so the strength of the baht slides a bit as internationally money moves to other currencies where rates might be relatively more attractive. (Other factors at work besides rate alone, however...)

If the intent is really & truly to adjust exchange rates, there are other tools to do that (e.g., by buying & selling currency reserves & futures).

[Acharn]

I am no expert on high finance, but when we put all of the factors together it would seem devaluing the baht more would be a good thing.

The price of paddie has dropped again. Devaluing the baht would give rice farmers a needed boost in income without government subsidy.

Exporters of manufactured goods would benefit.

If there is more money in the system it will stimulate the economy.

Devaluation looks like a win/win situation for the Thai people.

It's a constant struggle for the BOT. As you point out, a cheaper baht is a boon for the people who depend on exporting, which farmers do indirectly. The downside is, it's a nightmare for importers, since everything they want to sell costs them more baht. Can they raise their prices? Then their customers will be able to buy less of what they sell. Several years ago it was pretty widely agreed that 32 was a good compromise. Then we had the period when the baht appreciated to almost 28. Bad for me, because my pension is in dollars, but good for people who buy imported goods. I'm pretty indifferent here. A fall to 33 doesn't give me any great advantage, but a rise below 32 is uncomfortable for me. I like stability around 32.5.

[cloudhopper]

According to wiki the baht is the tenth-most traded currency on the FX market.

Who knew?

[Thai at Heart]

I am no expert on high finance, but when we put all of the factors together it would seem devaluing the baht more would be a good thing.

The price of paddie has dropped again. Devaluing the baht would give rice farmers a needed boost in income without government subsidy.

Exporters of manufactured goods would benefit.

If there is more money in the system it will stimulate the economy.

Devaluation looks like a win/win situation for the Thai people.

Import costs of all raw materials and energy rise when currency devalues.

Local prices rise when currency devalues.

Malinvestment occurs when currency devalues.

Savings become worth less when currency devalues.

More money/credit in the system mathematically equals devaluation.

Devaluation is always a lose/lose proposition in the longer term.

Indeed, you cant devalue to prosperity.

[rayw]

How is the Baht weaker and yet we are getting fewer Bahts to the £ and $ - an enigma...?

That is because the pound has weakened significantly against the dollar over the pas few weeks, but not weakened as much as the Euro. DO not believe all the presstitute crap in the UK about the economy doing so well as it is all the usual pre election fraudulent and misleading figures the Tories are putting out.

[givenall]

You is he smiling? In Japan they kill themselves for being wrong so many times

[Jonmarleesco]

'... the baht remains strong compared with the currencies of other countries in the region.' Overly strong would better describe it.

[rametindallas]

I'm confused the article was about the official interest dropping not the baht being devalued. Is there a policy of devaluation? The Australian Reserve Bank has been dropping the official interest for some time now and there has not been talk of devaluation. The Aus dollar has dropped against the U.S. dollar but we are being told this is due mainly to the dollar strengthening.

It's a relative thing but when a country drops interest rates, those seeking higher returns will pull their money out to put in countries where they can get higher returns. Of course, factors such as stability. long-term outlook, employment rates are a consideration. The US may soon raise interest rates which will cause investors to buy dollars. The more people buy a currency, the more scarce, and therefore precious, it becomes. If investors pull their money out of the Baht by selling them, the value, relative to other currencies, will fall. This phenomenon has only materialized with the growth of the super-rich and their investment houses. Geo. Soros broke the Bank of England and made billions through currency trading. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

[Dannyboy666]

Yeah I bet Kasikombank are staying quiet - yesterday they DROPPED their exchange rate to the pound from an already pitiful 46.8 to just 45.98 !!!

And how does it help home buyers when lending rates to private buyers are a ludicrous 7-8% ? That's just shameless profiteering and will hurt the economy. I came here this year to purchase 2 properties - at these rates I won't be buying squat !

. Kasikorn has Terrible Rates, TT here in Pattaya Dollar was 32.80, K was 32.53, WTH, I love Superich in Bangkok it's Number 1, in currency trades

I was at BKK last night thai baht was 31.02 for the dollar at currency exchanges, Never Change Your Money at BKK

[BSJ]

I am acutely aware of the exchange rate problem we Aussie's suffer. At the moment I have Aussie $$'s here but the wife won't let me change them for baht. And for some reason gold here rises and falls when the Aussie dollar does, so I have to wait for the Au$ to rise for the price of gold to rise to 20k a baht before I can cash it. It's a classic catch 22 problem.

But in the mean time the wife is giving me a 5000 baht a month allowance to keep me in pocket money. Tough life ay!

And to the bloke who mentioned the chemical fertilizer ingredients.....try cow poo. The wife has bought 4 ton of it and we are waiting on the cows for the rest!

She has stored some of it next to my play room, but it doesn't smell a bit! They take it down the farm or the orchard when they spread it as they trust no-one and won't leave bags out there.

[steve187]

Yeah I bet Kasikombank are staying quiet - yesterday they DROPPED their exchange rate to the pound from an already pitiful 46.8 to just 45.98 !!!

And how does it help home buyers when lending rates to private buyers are a ludicrous 7-8% ? That's just shameless profiteering and will hurt the economy. I came here this year to purchase 2 properties - at these rates I won't be buying squat !

. Kasikorn has Terrible Rates, TT here in Pattaya Dollar was 32.80, K was 32.53, WTH, I love Superich in Bangkok it's Number 1, in currency trades

I was at BKK last night thai baht was 31.02 for the dollar at currency exchanges, Never Change Your Money at BKK

should have gone to superrich 32.80

[Dannyboy666]

Yeah I bet Kasikombank are staying quiet - yesterday they DROPPED their exchange rate to the pound from an already pitiful 46.8 to just 45.98 !!!

And how does it help home buyers when lending rates to private buyers are a ludicrous 7-8% ? That's just shameless profiteering and will hurt the economy. I came here this year to purchase 2 properties - at these rates I won't be buying squat !

. Kasikorn has Terrible Rates, TT here in Pattaya Dollar was 32.80, K was 32.53, WTH, I love Superich in Bangkok it's Number 1, in currency trades

I was at BKK last night thai baht was 31.02 for the dollar at currency exchanges, Never Change Your Money at BKK

should have gone to superrich 32.80

oh I go to Superrich, it was just an observation from currency booths at BKK

[Dannyboy666]

Yeah I bet Kasikombank are staying quiet - yesterday they DROPPED their exchange rate to the pound from an already pitiful 46.8 to just 45.98 !!!

And how does it help home buyers when lending rates to private buyers are a ludicrous 7-8% ? That's just shameless profiteering and will hurt the economy. I came here this year to purchase 2 properties - at these rates I won't be buying squat !

. Kasikorn has Terrible Rates, TT here in Pattaya Dollar was 32.80, K was 32.53, WTH, I love Superich in Bangkok it's Number 1, in currency trades

I was at BKK last night thai baht was 31.02 for the dollar at currency exchanges, Never Change Your Money at BKK

should have gone to superrich 32.80

. TT in Patts is 32.82, yesterday

[samran]

I am acutely aware of the exchange rate problem we Aussie's suffer. At the moment I have Aussie $$'s here but the wife won't let me change them for baht. And for some reason gold here rises and falls when the Aussie dollar does, so I have to wait for the Au$ to rise for the price of gold to rise to 20k a baht before I can cash it. It's a classic catch 22 problem.

AUD is a commodity currency. When commodity prices rise, so does the AUD as people need to buy AUD to pay for those commodities. And vice versa.

[loppylugs1]

Pity the US did not put up interest rates,not far off though,likes of china and Thailand holding its breath .Good to see just how the baht suffers with swift outflow of funds,may see another '97 in double quick time

[loppylugs1]

I am acutely aware of the exchange rate problem we Aussie's suffer. At the moment I have Aussie $$'s here but the wife won't let me change them for baht. And for some reason gold here rises and falls when the Aussie dollar does, so I have to wait for the Au$ to rise for the price of gold to rise to 20k a baht before I can cash it. It's a classic catch 22 problem.

But in the mean time the wife is giving me a 5000 baht a month allowance to keep me in pocket money. Tough life ay!

And to the bloke who mentioned the chemical fertilizer ingredients.....try cow poo. The wife has bought 4 ton of it and we are waiting on the cows for the rest!

She has stored some of it next to my play room, but it doesn't smell a bit! They take it down the farm or the orchard when they spread it as they trust no-one and won't leave bags out there.

P3180002.JPGP3180003.JPG

Why not use human shit? gather the villagers together at certain times ,or give each a banana and get them to wander in your field

[Dannyboy666]

Pity the US did not put up interest rates,not far off though,likes of china and Thailand holding its breath .Good to see just how the baht suffers with swift outflow of funds,may see another '97 in double quick time

WSJ says this morning it's gonna go into Play , Soon cmon 97

[Thai at Heart]

When the USA raises interest rates, everyone will get the weak baht they wish for. And wait for priced of imports to zoom away

[hawker9000]

I'm not usually too impressed with the little exchange rate perturbations that occur routinely, but against the USD anyway, it looks like there's a noteworthy little kick going on now. Currently 33.7+ to the dollar; the highest it's been since early 2009. The last couple of weeks there's been a fresh run-up after every weekend breather. Could we be headed toward 35 and beyond?