Thai export growth forecast cut to 1 percent

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EXPORT CUT
Export growth forecast cut to 1%
Petchanet Pratruangkrai
The Nation


Chatchai Sarikulya

BANGKOK: -- Amid stubborn sluggishness in global trading, the Commerce Ministry has bit the bullet and now projects export expansion at only about 1 per cent this year, not 4 per cent.

"Thai exports this year are expected to grow more than 1 per cent, but may not reach the previous goal of 4 per cent.

"The slowdown in shipments has increased in line with other countries, while the Thai government in cooperation with private enterprises will try to draw up a new strategy to push exports as much as possible," Commerce Minister Chatchai Sarikulya said yesterday.

After the ministry's meeting with government agencies and private sector organisations, including the Board of Trade of Thailand and the Thai Chambers of Commerce, Federation of Thai Industries, Thai National Shippers Council and other trade associations, Chatchai said that despite the downtrend in global commerce, the ministry will work closely with companies to boost sales of each product category to promising overseas markets.

According to a survey by Global Trade Atlas among 40 countries, only four, including China, Chile and Switzerland, have enjoyed increased trade during the past years.

Other countries, including Thailand, Asean countries, European Union countries and the United States, have faced a dip in export growth along with the slowing global economy.

The ministry has divided export categories into 10 clusters so that it can brainstorm with the players in each segment to increase orders from various markets.

Ten clusters

The 10 clusters are agriculture and foods, electric appliances and parts, automobiles and parts, garments, jewellery and ornaments, construction materials, healthcare products, lifestyle products, logistics and various products to the Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam markets.

Shipments should return to the growth path in the second half of the year, he added.

Vallop Vitanakorn, vice president of the Thai National Shippers Council, said shipments are expected to show an upsurge of 3 per cent in the remaining two quarters after flattening out this quarter.

The council has called on the government to establish distribution centres in neighbouring countries to support Thai trade in Asean. It has also urged for a cut in freight fees as they impose a high cost burden on traders.

Supant Mongkolsuthree, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said the ministry should continue providing financial support to small and medium-sized enterprises under the SME Proactive project.

It should promote local products with the "Product of Thailand" logo to increase recognition of the quality of Thai goods, he said.

It should solve the problem of the baht since Thailand's unit has strengthened by 1 per cent against other currencies, which have depreciated by 2-10 per cent. The baht's advance against other currencies has eroded the country's export edge, he said.

Kalin Sarasin, vice chairman of the Board of Trade, encouraged the government to call for a meeting to address and solve export problems, which have been raised by many trade associations.

It also supports the establishment of distribution centres in many target markets such as India, the Middle East and Asean.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Export-growth-forecast-cut-to-1-30258438.html

-- The Nation 2015-04-22

[thesetat2013]

OK so let's compare Thailand's reduced growth with the rest of the world to lay blame on their failure to meet their own goals given recently of increased exports and growth. When will Thailand learn to accept they were wrong and stop making excuses when they are found to be wrong?

This blame game is getting boring.

[BSJ]

Te baht needs to be devalued to stimulate exports. I know that hurts imports as well but a lot of the imports are raw materials so the impact will be less. And for the imported vehicle buyers....stiff!

[thesetat2013]

After rereading this I am curious why my money has not increased upon changing it to Thai baht. I mean. If, as they claim here, my countries money devalued from 2-10% and thais increased 1%. Instead I am getting almost the same exchange rate as I did before.

Another point! If the Thai bahts value increased by 1% then why does it cost more to get the same or less for for my money?

Edited April 22, 2015 by thesetat2013

[Chupup]

Its easy really and without al the BS that is being bandied about, A strong BHT = a drop in EXPORTS of course putting the logo Made in Thailand on goods dosn't help either

[janpharma]

Thai brainstorming...hm...

[rebelplatoon]

Mystery to me they still think there will be growth. The central bank needs to intervene in the rate of the Baht. They are three months late!

[soalbundy]

for 1% read 0%

[maidee]

as long as they can export their slave fish

[Toknarok]

Just what is it with these people and their contradictory statements. Only yesterday they were crowing that there had been improvements over the last 6 months http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/818908-thai-finance-min-boasts-visible-economic-improvement-over-the. It's quite obviousl that they haven't got a clue and the left hand doesn't know what the right is doing.

[SoilSpoil]

Reading Thai news is lije watching a ping pong game. Good, bad, up, down, rain, sunny, black, white, everything here changes by the day. The truth must be somewhere in the middle I hope.

[quandow]

I really LIKE this Chatchai Sarikulya. He appears to lie the least of any officials I see reported in TV. Well done sir!

[Eric Loh]

If not for the coup, elected PM and ministers will be actively travelling and engaging in trade talks to find and expand new export markets. Unfortunately, junta PM and ministers are not welcome in many countries.

[lostoday]

Mystery to me they still think there will be growth. The central bank needs to intervene in the rate of the Baht. They are three months late!

Since when did the Thai bank stop intervening? Don't they intervene daily to keep the baht low?

[Suffinator]

Would the growth of 1% be wiped out if the EU impose sanctions on their fishing industry? They already know the baht is way to high and yet appear reluctant to devalue it.

[Srikcir]

"the Commerce Ministry has bit the bullet and now projects export expansion at only about 1 per cent this year, not 4 per cent."

Well done Chatchai. Deputy Transport Minister Akhom stated recently that a 3.5% growth in exports is still possible!

But before Chatchai straightens Akhom out, he needs to read the report by the Kasikorn Research Centre made 2 days ago predicting zero export growth for the full year against its earlier prediction of 3.5%.

How can this Junta be responsible for the nation's security when its leadership has no grip on reality?

[Thai at Heart]

OK so let's compare Thailand's reduced growth with the rest of the world to lay blame on their failure to meet their own goals given recently of increased exports and growth. When will Thailand learn to accept they were wrong and stop making excuses when they are found to be wrong?

This blame game is getting boring.

Well they need to stop making a forecast into a target and then reducing it by 75% from the original estimate.

They have talked up the numbers every December and January for the last few years and then reduced and reduced until they have missed by some margin. Just accept the cold hard truth that exports and thus GDP growth is stuck.. Then you can come up with some real policies, instead of wasting 6 months every year watching the original target drop and drop. Key to this, is total FDI. Get more FDI, get more exports. Very simple.

[aaacorp]

Where are the Junta supporters who keep saying the polls showing 90% of thais approval is real and everybody is happy in LOS ?

[soalbundy]

Where are the Junta supporters who keep saying the polls showing 90% of thais approval is real and everybody is happy in LOS ?

Costa has gone quiet.

[dcutman]

If not for the coup, elected PM and ministers will be actively travelling and engaging in trade talks to find and expand new export markets. Unfortunately, junta PM and ministers are not welcome in many countries.

If I recall correctly the last govt did just that, quite extensively. How was the export growth during that time again?

[ourmanflint]

In a post globalization world Thailand cannot compete when its currency is so overvalued. There is absolutely nothing Thailand has that cannot be bought elsewhere for much cheaper. It's as simple as that and no amount of trade visits will change that.

[lostoday]

In a post globalization world Thailand cannot compete when its currency is so overvalued. There is absolutely nothing Thailand has that cannot be bought elsewhere for much cheaper. It's as simple as that and no amount of trade visits will change that.

Oh really! Thailand exports are 65% of it's GDP (390 billion USD). Who bought all that stuff that can as you said, "be bought elsewhere for much cheaper." I really want to know cause that's like 200 billion dollars gee they must be really stupid whoever they are.

[ozzieovaseas]

It should promote local products with the "Product of Thailand" logo to increase recognition of the quality of Thai goods, he said.



No offense, but im thinking it might be better to leave the product of Thailand info in the fineprint.
I dont know about the rest of the world, but in my opinion, and from experiences in Australia, it seems the words "made in Thailand" are pretty much a detterent.

Whether it bo through ignorance, bias or misinformation, it seems every sector of Australia has various reasons for dodging Thai stuff.

Take cans of tuna (made in Thai) for a simple example:

dogooders, nationalists, greenies, humanitarians ect :

- Believe everything cheap or made overseas is inferior and wont buy anything not aussie anyway.

- Believe whales and other fish are being slaughtered..dont trust Thai industry.

- Believe of slave labour and dodgy practices in the industry..dont trust Thai industry.

- Believe the income of the whole country is based on a certain age old profession, and would not support that

Females:

- Well that goes without saying, the mention of the very word Thailand is taboo in certain circles...err apart from ars*e widening fattening Thai food, which of course gets the tick of approval )

Seriously though, someone in Thai government should do an indepth study on how consumers (in fact, how ALL people aound the world) view Thailand and its products.

I am thinking that the results would be very different from what they think

[lostoday]

It should promote local products with the "Product of Thailand" logo to increase recognition of the quality of Thai goods, he said.

No offense, but im thinking it might be better to leave the product of Thailand info in the fineprint.

I dont know about the rest of the world, but in my opinion, and from experiences in Australia, it seems the words "made in Thailand" are pretty much a detterent.

Whether it bo through ignorance, bias or misinformation, it seems every sector of Australia has various reasons for dodging Thai stuff.

Take cans of tuna (made in Thai) for a simple example:

dogooders, nationalists, greenies, humanitarians ect :

- Believe everything cheap or made overseas is inferior and wont buy anything not aussie anyway.

- Believe whales and other fish are being slaughtered..dont trust Thai industry.

- Believe of slave labour and dodgy practices in the industry..dont trust Thai industry.

- Believe the income of the whole country is based on a certain age old profession, and would not support that

Females:

- Well that goes without saying, the mention of the very word Thailand is taboo in certain circles...err apart from ars*e widening fattening Thai food, which of course gets the tick of approval )

Seriously though, someone in Thai government should do an indepth study on how consumers (in fact, how ALL people aound the world) view Thailand and its products.

I am thinking that the results would be very different from what they think

Thais major trading partner is China. I think he was referring to made in Thailand as opposed to made in China.

A lot of Thais don't buy Australian goods because of their treatment of their indigenous population re life expectancy and infant mortality and so on and on.

And "Shackles and restraints are often still used on people with mental disabilities in Australia" http://www.hrw.org/world-report/2014/country-chapters/australia

Edited April 22, 2015 by lostoday

[soalbundy]

It should promote local products with the "Product of Thailand" logo to increase recognition of the quality of Thai goods, he said.

No offense, but im thinking it might be better to leave the product of Thailand info in the fineprint.

I dont know about the rest of the world, but in my opinion, and from experiences in Australia, it seems the words "made in Thailand" are pretty much a detterent.

Whether it bo through ignorance, bias or misinformation, it seems every sector of Australia has various reasons for dodging Thai stuff.

Take cans of tuna (made in Thai) for a simple example:

dogooders, nationalists, greenies, humanitarians ect :

- Believe everything cheap or made overseas is inferior and wont buy anything not aussie anyway.

- Believe whales and other fish are being slaughtered..dont trust Thai industry.

- Believe of slave labour and dodgy practices in the industry..dont trust Thai industry.

- Believe the income of the whole country is based on a certain age old profession, and would not support that

Females:

- Well that goes without saying, the mention of the very word Thailand is taboo in certain circles...err apart from ars*e widening fattening Thai food, which of course gets the tick of approval )

Seriously though, someone in Thai government should do an indepth study on how consumers (in fact, how ALL people aound the world) view Thailand and its products.

I am thinking that the results would be very different from what they think

From my experience even Thai's mistrust ''made in Thailand'' and prefer made in farang land

[lostoday]

From my experience even Thai's mistrust ''made in Thailand'' and prefer made in farang land

Since China is Thailand's major trading partner how do they feel about Thai vs China goods?

My experience is they would rather buy Thai.