Moscow warns that ISIS in Thailand to attack Russian targets

[ravip]

How long before TAT announces a Terrorist Tourism campaign.

Ridiculing others will not solve the issue - proves beyond doubt with the current incidents in the West.

[donnybay]

The night clubs in Pattaya would be an obvious and easy target I will tell you why

The most popular that begins with "I" does NOT have a policy to stop people wearing backpacks coming in, I was so shocked to see it at 2am in the morning, that the next day I emailed the owners

The reply was they do NOT intend to stop letting people in wearing them because they are searched at the door, and airlines let people on planes with packs so why should they

How stupid stupid can you get, i replied yes airlines do, but they go though a xray machine looking for explosives first, not just have a touch flashed in them

The club who's name is "3" numbers, also has the same problem, saw it not so long ago two guys standing at the bar acting very strangely, one had on a massive backpack, so search it you would have had to empty it all out

I left and on the way out spoke to security why you let in, his answer "no problem"

3rd club is the biggest and has a "mixxed" clientele, but many Russians seem to like it , if you go up the escalator, but head to walk to the toilet entrance, then though to the bars, you encounter no door staff. I don't know their backpack policy, but I will email them and ask

Edited December 4, 2015 by donnybay

[than]

True or not we don't forget that ISand terrorist can strike everywhere

In this time of crisis we much be carefull

[stickylies]

theoretically ISIS is everywhere since they are a "religious movement" and not a country or nationality. their main advantage is that some of their followers are willing to actively-die for their cause which makes them a tough enemy. blowing up innocent people in a market or concert hall may be cowardish, in terms of warfare it is highly effective and the new wave/way of guerrilla battle. these ISIS clowns will never rule the western world but they will continue to spread fear and terror even if Syria and Iraq are being wiped of the earth. we're a pathetic species and i'm glad i have no kids (deliberately)....

[dageurreotype]

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that one day Thailand is going to be hit bigger than anyone expects.

The bombing at the Erawan Shrine was merely their way of saying 'look what we can do, easy as pie'.

When I think of places where there are hoards of people, Thai's and foreigners they could cause devastation that will bring the country to its knees.

Sure we can't stop it, maybe we shouldn't even worry about it, just accept it is going to happen and hope we're at home that particular night.

They won't be without support either, there are enough Muslim insurgents in the south happy to lend a hand.

Does this story significantly increase the likelihood of someone being attacked in Thailand? I don't know. I'm pretty sure no matter where you live in the world right now, if you live in a populated enough area, there's a better than 0% chance of terrorism. Look at this thing in CA yesterday. Zero warning. They're not even sure it was terrorist related (though they were armed to the gills and had pipe bombs so if it wasn't terrorist related, <deleted>?!?!).

So, really, the question is are we even talking about a significant increase in risk? To me, it seems like the difference between driving on a Wednesday evening or driving on a Friday. Fridays, generally (according to people who track this sort of stuff), have higher traffic accident and fatality rates. Do you drive less on Fridays? Do you avoid driving on Fridays? Do you drive more carefully on Fridays?

If the answer is no, you're probably talking about a similar increase in risk as you are based on the day of the week you decide to drive a vehicle.

And what are you talking about in terms of hoards of people that would be able to bring the country to its knees? Based on what we've seen in terms of terrorism in general, and not even ISIS specific, there's a practical limit on the amount of damage they can inflict. Granted, the attacks on 9/11 were/are horrific in scale but outside of that, it's mostly been bombings and shootings.

Bombs have somewhat of a limit on the amount of damage they can do. The bigger you make the bomb the more suspicious materials you have to gather and thus the bigger the chance you'll get caught. So, even if you say that they were to place a bomb in Siam Paragon, the bomb would only kill people within a certain proximity to it.

Shootings have a similar dynamic in that they are limited in scope to the number of people who unable to escape the gunman. Even in the Paris shootings, at the Bataclan theatre, 89 people died in a place that has a stated capacity for 1500. I haven't seen the numbers for how many people were actually there but once the shooting started people exited the place very rapidly which puts a cap on the number of possible victims.

I don't want to sound too cold or unfeeling here. I was as choked up as anyone when I heard about what happened in Paris but I'm just trying to put some perspective to your over-the-top scare.

Minus weapons of mass destruction, chances are that an attack, even in Bangkok, would result in under 200 fatalities at the most extreme with a more likely number being in double-digits. Hardly enough to bring the country to its knees as you stated.

And that's especially true if the aim was to target Russians and westerners in general. The kinds of attacked that would really bring Thailand to its knees like blowing up a damn don't target Russians or foreigners.

So let's dial it back a bit.

Is it cause to be more mindful of suspicious behavior? Yes.

Should you avoid the Russian nightclub's "We bombed ISIS" party? Yes.

Should you avoid going out and living your life as you normally would? No.

Let's say you have just 8 guys And they are all willing to do another erawan shine size bomb

If they bonb locations in every tourist hub in the country how many people are going to cross Thailand off their list? I'd say most....

Its not strictly about the number of casualties , terrorism is effective when people are scared of what might or could happen, not only what actually happens

A country that relies on its tourism industry will be harmed to some degree even by these news headlines whether there are anymore attacks or not....

Let's hope they can make examples of these 8 guys ASAP before they can do anymore damage

I agree. Despite digibum's reasoned post, he's quite possibly talking from the perspective of someone who actually lives here. Not at all the same as someone planning their annual holiday. Is it.

Edited December 4, 2015 by dageurreotype

[soalbundy]

True or not we don't forget that ISand terrorist can strike everywhere

In this time of crisis we much be carefull

get a grip

[gandalf12]

Psst, any one for a nuke ???

Top Secret is a fairly low level category for a document

[spectrumisgreen]

Again, they are not only after Russians. Is Paris in Russia? In Pattaya and Phuket they get Russians and westerners. You can't really step out in Pattaya and segregate yourself from Russians (or westerners).

I'm asking a serious question.

Should we avoid the malls, walking street, etc.?

It's hard to completely avoid the malls but I think it would be sensible to avoid large gatherings such as at festivals that attract mostly foreigners.

As far as the Russians ... so now Egypt is out. Turkey is out. So ISIS wants to make Pattaya out too?

'Is Paris in Russia?' Is that your seriously thought out answer to why they [iSIS] couldn't be coming here principally to attack Russian interests?

Your 'point' would only make sense if someone had said they went to France to attack 'Russians' a few tragic weeks ago!!

Chances are this is a spurious 'leak' designed, as per ALL governments and their (always military lobbied, backed, and enforced!!) authoritarian 'nanny-ing', ('Top Secret'.. 'Urgent!'.. Dangermouse, anybody?) to allow this army-government even more power to look into, and have ever more of a say in, our own lives!!.. still, we watch our backs.. there are NO safe havens on this planet!!!

[Operator2002]

Maybe the Russian leaders just wish to close Thailand as the most popular tourist destination left after closure of Turkey and Egypt. So they will be staging any kind of excuses to do it. They wish to kill outgoing tourism and develop domestic tourism like it was in the Soviet Union times. Iron curtain coming.

[spectrumisgreen]

Psst, any one for a nuke ???

Top Secret is a fairly low level category for a document

Would make you want to open that envelope/ folder, anyway, wouldn't it?

[dageurreotype]

Let's say you have just 8 guys And they are all willing to do another erawan shine size bomb

If they bonb locations in every tourist hub in the country how many people are going to cross Thailand off their list? I'd say most....

Its not strictly about the number of casualties , terrorism is effective when people are scared of what might or could happen, not only what actually happens

A country that relies on its tourism industry will be harmed to some degree even by these news headlines whether there are anymore attacks or not....

Let's hope they can make examples of these 8 guys ASAP before they can do anymore damage

Well, first off, I doubt you would have 8 incidents. More likely 4 with them acting in pairs.

Second, there's the logistical challenges of doing this in a country where you don't speak the language. They would have to get plugged into a sympathetic network already in Thailand. It's not like they can walk into a local market and purchase 500 kgs of fertilizer only speaking Arabic and not set off some red flags.

But most importantly, let's be realistic about the damage.

While the Bali bombings in 2002 resulted in over 50% of the tourism market disappearing, by 2004 more tourists visited Bali than had ever previously.

Bali was against bombed in 2005 and again tourism plummeted but today Bali has about 3x the number of tourist arrivals as they did in 2004.

Did Bali recover? Obviously.

I wasn't trying to make the point that a massive attack would't hurt tourism at all, but it really needs to be put in context. It will hurt tourism in the short-term but people's memories fade quickly.

And, yes, of course, let's hope that they can get these guys before they have a chance to do anything!

Not the same at all. Jemaah Islamiya was SE Asian centric, ISL, is global. Duh.

[JHolmesJr]

You would need an entire army to police a small, population dense place like pattaya….no shortage of targets with a high concentration of white folks (russians and yanks look same to these freaks).

An armed presence at both ends of every soi….with one patrol walking up and down.

Mobilise all retired sas lying low in soi buakhao.

Also, all thai doormen and bouncers to be told that ganging up 20 on 1 and relentless head kicking is now ok.

[NickJ]

Gettin bout time to throw the baby out with the bathwater........

[Jackin1960]

And two to unknown targets. Bit of a no brainer if you look at the known targets the other is almost certainly Chiang Mai. Guess we will soon see when the preverbal hits the fan.

[zackattack]

You all will meet bezelbub soon.

Take my word on it.

[spectrumisgreen]

Let's say you have just 8 guys And they are all willing to do another erawan shine size bomb

If they bonb locations in every tourist hub in the country how many people are going to cross Thailand off their list? I'd say most....

Its not strictly about the number of casualties , terrorism is effective when people are scared of what might or could happen, not only what actually happens

A country that relies on its tourism industry will be harmed to some degree even by these news headlines whether there are anymore attacks or not....

Let's hope they can make examples of these 8 guys ASAP before they can do anymore damage

Well, first off, I doubt you would have 8 incidents. More likely 4 with them acting in pairs.

Second, there's the logistical challenges of doing this in a country where you don't speak the language. They would have to get plugged into a sympathetic network already in Thailand. It's not like they can walk into a local market and purchase 500 kgs of fertilizer only speaking Arabic and not set off some red flags.

But most importantly, let's be realistic about the damage.

While the Bali bombings in 2002 resulted in over 50% of the tourism market disappearing, by 2004 more tourists visited Bali than had ever previously.

Bali was against bombed in 2005 and again tourism plummeted but today Bali has about 3x the number of tourist arrivals as they did in 2004.

Did Bali recover? Obviously.

I wasn't trying to make the point that a massive attack would't hurt tourism at all, but it really needs to be put in context. It will hurt tourism in the short-term but people's memories fade quickly.

And, yes, of course, let's hope that they can get these guys before they have a chance to do anything!

Not the same at all. Jemaah Islamiya was SE Asian centric, ISL, is global. Duh.

Sounds like a chat between a modern-day Holmes and Watson going on here!! "8 highly armed deviants.. as per ones original 'guess-timate'.. divided by 2, as they would surely work in pairs, actually equals just four potential incidents.. divide this by the number of local townsfolk who couldn't speak the deviants' language and/ or weren't sympathetic to their cause, and we have... er.. errm.. and what did we say about tourism, again?.. actually, I think I really need to be leaving this fine old scotch whiskey alone and retire to bed, my dear friend.. (hic!)..."

[johnhw]

I would like to see armed soldiers now at obvious areas of potential attack all over town. Including beaches.

Sure we all want to see that...

I have a copyright for this picture of me and you did not ask my permission to show it.

Gay poster of the month

actually, very informative attachment. The final straw to avoid the comments section here and to stay out of the tourist traps.

[dageurreotype]

Be friends with Thai Muslims, and keep smiling.

I am. And I do I've just had my nice local Muslim couple round doing my garden. You think I should go around the house and make sure they haven't left anything?

[Nobb]

Thailand is perfect for a terrorist attack. They sit back after the muslims attacks in the south. ISIS knows that Thailand would be easy pickings. Two many problems in Thailand at the present time. More worried about politics and the next election. Now is time for are Army General to stand up to the muslims like he does to the news reporters!

[Nobb]

theoretically ISIS is everywhere since they are a "religious movement" and not a country or nationality. their main advantage is that some of their followers are willing to actively-die for their cause which makes them a tough enemy. blowing up innocent people in a market or concert hall may be cowardish, in terms of warfare it is highly effective and the new wave/way of guerrilla battle. these ISIS clowns will never rule the western world but they will continue to spread fear and terror even if Syria and Iraq are being wiped of the earth. we're a pathetic species and i'm glad i have no kids (deliberately)....

Not a solution to wipe out ISIS. But a great start to kill there money supply! ISIS only love who pays them!

[dageurreotype]

ISIS have killed there own people that tells me that no one is safe against these murderess terrorists . I always live today as if it were my last day !

Christ those unpaid bills must be piling up?

[Whyamiandwhatamidoinghere]

There is no way to actually spot one of these people in Thailand. the best advice is to be aware of your surroundings. If something does not look or feel right- I leave the area. Remember that the terrorists who entered America for the 9/11 horror all entered on valid passports and visas. they passed through American Immigration at some point and were never spotted. These people are highly trained and know how to blend. You may even see them drinking alcohol or in a Temple. I won't dwell on the possible danger but I will stay alert as I always do. If you see something- Say something.

"If something does not look or feel right leave the area" If I take your advice I should leave Thailand altogether because nothing ever looks right or feels right in Oz.

[dageurreotype]

Time to arm and protect the family.

[HenryB]

This is going to be good for High Seasons

[HenryB]

This will affect High Season

[MockingJay]

Well, a proper crackdown on (part) foreign-owned tour businesses and dive shops, preferrably Russian will do the trick and remove this "threat" from Thailand for good, no?

Edited December 4, 2015 by MockingJay

[Basil B]

I think there may well be targeting not just Russians but probably many other nationals as well like the French, Belgians, Americans and Brits especially after the UK parliament voted for and the RAF is now conducting air strikes in Syria.

All should be extra vigilant in the next few weeks...

[bkksteve123]

Prediction: nothing will change and nothing will happen.

[thailanddogerator]

You just need to understand that somedays in Thailand you might be killed and that not enough nobody will help you but then nobody will ever try to know who killed you !

Do you really dream that any cop in Thailand is able to see a terrorist who put a bomb in front of his eyes ? I wouldn't take the risk...

I just saw this reported on NHK (Japanese) tv which said the same thing but added that the targets were BOTH Russian and western tourists. I don't think anyone is particularly surprised by this.

Personally, I have little confidence that these terrorist forces can be well contained here. So how are we supposed to react to this?

Here in Pattaya, pretty much the entire city is a soft target. But some potential targets are more obvious than others. How about a step up in actual security measures rather than the lame "security theater" of entry scanners on some doors at Central Pattaya Beach Mall?

[diehard60]

if they want to hit some thing here it would be very easy for them.