EU referendum: BBC forecasts UK votes to leave

[webfact]

EU referendum: BBC forecasts UK votes to leave

LONDON: -- The UK has voted by 52% to 48% to leave the European Union after 43 years in an historic referendum, a BBC forecast suggests.

London and Scotland voted strongly to stay in the EU but the remain vote has been undermined by poor results in the north of England.

Voters in Wales and the English shires have backed Brexit in large numbers.

The pound fell to its lowest level against the dollar since 1985 as the markets reacted to the results.

Full story: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36615028


-- BBC 2016-06-24

[webfact]

Britain takes unprecedented step to leave EU; markets plunge
By DANICA KIRKA and JILL LAWLESS

LONDON (AP) — Britain voted to leave the European Union after a bitterly divisive referendum campaign, according to tallies of official results Friday, sending global markets plunging, casting British politics into disarray and shattering the stability of a project in continental unity designed half a century ago to prevent World War III.

The decision launches a yearslong process to renegotiate trade, business and political links between the United Kingdom and what will become a 27-nation bloc, an unprecedented divorce that could take decades to complete.

"The dawn is breaking on an independent United Kingdom," said Nigel Farage, leader of the U.K. Independence Party. "Let June 23 go down in our history as our independence day!"

Tallies by British broadcasters of near-complete official results Friday showed the "leave" campaign winning with 52 percent of the vote. Turnout was high: 72 percent of the more than 46 million registered voters went to the polls.

Polls ahead of the vote had showed a close race, but the momentum had appeared to be on the "remain" side in the week before the vote. The result shocked investors, and stock markets plummeted around the world.

The pound suffered one of its biggest one-day falls in history, plummeting more than 10 percent in six hours, from about $1.50 to below $1.35, on concerns that severing ties with the single market will hurt the U.K. economy and undermine London's position as a global financial center.

The U.K. would be the first major country to leave the EU, which was born from the ashes of World War II as European leaders sought to build links and avert future hostility. With no precedent, the impact on the single market of 500 million people — the world's largest economy — is unclear.

As results poured in, a picture emerged of a sharply divided nation: Strong pro-EU votes in the economic and cultural powerhouse of London and semi-autonomous Scotland were countered by sweeping anti-Establishment sentiment for an exit across the rest of England, from southern seaside towns to rust-belt former industrial powerhouses in the north.

"A lot of people's grievances are coming out and we have got to start listening to them," said deputy Labour Party leader John McDonnell.

The vote is likely to cost Prime Minister David Cameron his job. The leader of the ruling Conservative Party called the referendum largely to silence voices to his right, then staked his reputation on keeping Britain in the EU. Former London Mayor Boris Johnson, who is from the same party, was the most prominent supporter of the "leave" campaign and now becomes a leading contender to replace Cameron.

After winning a majority in Parliament in the last election, Cameron negotiated a package of reforms that he said would protect Britain's sovereignty and prevent EU migrants from moving to the U.K. to claim generous public benefits.

Critics charged that those reforms were hollow, leaving Britain at the mercy of bureaucrats in Brussels and doing nothing to stem the tide of European immigrants who have come to the U.K. since the EU expanded eastward in 2004. The "leave" campaign accuses the immigrants of taxing Britain's housing market, public services and employment rolls.

Those concerns were magnified by the refugee crisis of the past year that saw more than 1 million people from the Middle East and Africa flood into the EU as the continent's leaders struggled to come up with a unified response.

Cameron's efforts to find a slogan to counter the "leave" campaign's emotive "take back control" settled on "Brits don't quit." But the appeal to a Churchillian bulldog spirit and stoicism proved too little, too late.

The slaying of pro-Europe lawmaker Jo Cox a week before the vote brought a shocked pause to both campaigns and appeared to shift momentum away from the "leave" camp. While it isn't clear whether her killer was influenced by the EU debate, her death aroused fears that the referendum had stirred demons it would be difficult to subdue.

The result triggers a new series of negotiations that is expected to last two years or more as Britain and the EU search for a way to separate economies that have become intertwined since the U.K. joined the bloc on Jan. 1, 1973. Until those talks are completed, Britain will remain a member of the EU.

Exiting the EU involves taking the unprecedented step of invoking Article 50 of the EU's governing treaty. While Greenland left an earlier, more limited version of the bloc in 1985, no country has ever invoked Article 50, so there is no roadmap for how the process will work.

Authorities ranging from the International Monetary Fund to the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have warned that a British exit will reverberate through a world economy that is only slowly recovering from the global economic crisis.

"It will usher in a lengthy and possibly protracted period of acute economic uncertainty about the U.K.'s trading arrangements," said Daniel Vernazza, the U.K. economist at UniCredit.

The European Union is the world's biggest economy and the U.K.'s most important trading partner, accounting for 45 percent of exports and 53 percent of imports.

In addition, the complex nature of Britain's integration with the EU means that breaking up will be hard to do. The negotiations will go far beyond tariffs, including issues such as cross-border security, foreign policy cooperation and a common fisheries policy.

Among the biggest challenges for Britain is protecting the ability of professionals such as investment managers, accountants and lawyers to work in the EU.

As long as the U.K. is a member of the bloc, firms registered in Britain can operate in any other member state without facing another layer of regulation. It's the same principle that allows exporters to ship their goods to any EU country free of tariffs.

Now that right is up for negotiation, threatening the City, as London's financial heart is known, and its position as Europe's pre-eminent financial center.

Many international banks and brokerages have long used Britain as the entry point to the EU because of its trusted legal system and institutions that operate in English, the language of international finance. Britain's financial services industry is also surrounded by an ecosystem of expertise — lawyers, accountants and consultants— that support it.

Some 60 percent of all non-EU firms have their European headquarters in the U.K., according to TheCityUK, which lobbies on behalf of the financial industry. The U.K. hosts more headquarters of non-EU firms than Germany, France, Switzerland and the Netherlands put together.

"We believe this outcome has serious implications for the City and many of our clients' businesses with exposure to the U.K. and the EU," said Malcolm Sweeting, senior partner of the law firm, Clifford Chance. "We are working alongside our clients to help them as they anticipate, plan for and manage the challenges the coming political and trade negotiations will bring."

JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said earlier this month that a vote to leave would force his bank to move jobs to mainland Europe to ensure that it could continue to service clients in the EU. Other global businesses with customers in the rest of the EU will be in a similar situation.

The only question that remains is whether the dire economic predictions economists made during the campaign will come to pass.

"Uncertainty is bad for business," Vernazza said. "A sharp fall in U.K. risky asset prices, delays to investment, disruption to trade, and a loss of business and consumer confidence mean the U.K. economy is more likely than not to enter a technical recession within two years."

___

Associated Press writers Raphael Satter in London and Shawn Pogatchnik in Dublin contributed to this report.

-- (c) Associated Press 2016-06-24

[marcofunny]

finally FREEDOM, ,it s historical day for all nations, thank you all Brits, bye bye massive immigration, bye bye Turkey with its 90 million people, bye bye the criminal gangs of eastern Europe, if EU leaders wanted peace in the world they should have supported Assad and Russia and not side with the terrorists.

GREAT BRITAIN will survive and become stronger it sets the example for the rest of us, time for a change.

Edited June 24, 2016 by marcofunny

[jeab1980]

This statementis false

The decision launches a yearslong process to renegotiate trade, business and political links between the United Kingdom and what will become a 27-nation bloc, an unprecedented divorce that could take decades to complete."

What happens now is at the UK's own pace. Firstly article 50 of the EU treaty had to be enacted by the UK this can be done whenever the UK decides to do so this then gives a 24 month (2 years) process to disentangle all UK dealings with EU.

I suspect it will be up to 6 months before article 50 is enacted as a lot of back room negotiates will now start with UK and other EU Goverments. Regarding trade ect ect. As usual press jump to wrong conclusions and try to panic people. As for the £drop in value was to be expected don't panic it will return.

[Lantern]

I'll raise a glass or two tonight.

Time to put the great back into Great Britain.

[manfredtillmann]

finally FREEDOM, ,it s historical day for all nations, thank you all Brits, bye bye massive immigration, bye bye Turkey with its 90 million people, bye bye the criminal gangs of eastern Europe, if EU leaders wanted peace in the world they should have supported Assad and Russia and not side with the terrorists.

GREAT BRITAIN will survive and become stronger it sets the example for the rest of us, time for a change.

I'll raise a glass or two tonight.

Time to put the great back into Great Britain.

my gut feeling is, gentlemen, that the exact opposite will occur.

your 'great britain' will split apart. scottland will separate and re - unite with the eu. what will happen to london, the financial hub of europe?

what means do you have to make you great, (again?)?

and apart from that, given the magnitude of this event, the margin of 'win' over 'loose' is way too slim. there will be a lot of disgruntled brits having to live with and suffer from this short sighted decision.

[webfact]

LONDON (AP) - Chairwoman of United Kingdom Electoral Commission officially declares that Britain has voted to leave the European Union.

[Rinrada]

....Not quite all....saor

[mommysboy]

Will we still be able to take part in the Eurovision song contest?

[Andrew65]

"..................what means do you have to make you great, (again?)?"

You're right Manfred, what do we have left after 40 years in the EU?

finally FREEDOM, ,it s historical day for all nations, thank you all Brits, bye bye massive immigration, bye bye Turkey with its 90 million people, bye bye the criminal gangs of eastern Europe, if EU leaders wanted peace in the world they should have supported Assad and Russia and not side with the terrorists.

GREAT BRITAIN will survive and become stronger it sets the example for the rest of us, time for a change.

I'll raise a glass or two tonight.

Time to put the great back into Great Britain.

my gut feeling is, gentlemen, that the exact opposite will occur.

your 'great britain' will split apart. scottland will separate and re - unite with the eu. what will happen to london, the financial hub of europe?

what means do you have to make you great, (again?)?

and apart from that, given the magnitude of this event, the margin of 'win' over 'loose' is way too slim. there will be a lot of disgruntled brits having to live with and suffer from this short sighted decision.

[Guest]

I'll raise a glass or two tonight.

Time to put the great back into Great Britain.

That glass just got a wee bit more expensive ... Enjoy !!!

Edited June 24, 2016 by Guest

[mommysboy]

Scotland can take our place in EU, and have independence.

Let's be honest. Their are 2 very failed relationships here. EU vs UK. UK vs Scotland.

You have to own your own ways sometimes. Everyone tried. The sky isn't about to fall in.

Edited June 24, 2016 by mommysboy

[AhFarangJa]

Good Riddance to the European Union and all the M.E.P.'s with their sinecures and massive pension plans. Mr & Mrs Kinnock will now have to find another gravy train. Yes, the pound will drop at first but markets will recover.

Hopefully, a drying up of the cheap labour from Poland and Ukraine.

A typical example for you.......Bae Systems in Scotlands Shipyards recently laid off hundreds of Scottish workers....then hired Polish workers at about 6 pound an hour less.....

[Andrew65]

Unfortunately I think we will!

Will we still be able to take part in the Eurovision song contest?

[alant]

Will we still be able to take part in the Eurovision song contest?

I hope not

[Rumblecat]

There are people who genuinely believe that the EU is at the root of all our ills, and that by leaving it we'll suddenly have all this money! We'll put the Great back into Great Britain! The recession is over! Of course that's what's going to happen especially with intellectual heavyweights like Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson leading the charge, what could possibly go wrong?

And as usual Scotland gets shafted by thickos south of the border. Cheers guys.

[manfredtillmann]

Unfortunately I think we will!

Will we still be able to take part in the Eurovision song contest?

if israel and australia can? but you'll probably never win anymore.

[Guest]

Congratulations ????

[TomJoad]

This should at least help McDonald's stock to go up.

Better exchange rate = More American tourists in London...

[Guest]

The old geezers left a bad inheritance for the Britain's youth. Silly old people.

HOW AGES VOTED

(YouGov poll)

18-24: 75% Remain

25-49: 56% Remain

50-64: 44% Remain

65+: 39% Remain

Hopefully the EU stand strong and also make needed changes to it's organisation. I'm sure EU will take all the best Britain youth inside, while leaves the elderly to UK. Fortunately there is no need to build a wall between EU and Britain.

[Pikeybkk]

congratulations for the normal working classes on giving two fingers to the establishment

[Andrew65]

It was always regarded as a bit of a joke by many in the UK anyway. (Many countries vote politically).

When you have the Beatles, the Stones & so many others, who wants to listen to a bunch of Ukrainian goat farmers on the balalaika!!??

Unfortunately I think we will!

Will we still be able to take part in the Eurovision song contest?

if israel and australia can? but you'll probably never win anymore.

Edited June 24, 2016 by Andrew65

[manfredtillmann]

"..................what means do you have to make you great, (again?)?"

You're right Manfred, what do we have left after 40 years in the EU?

dear andrew65

i don't think it's entirely justified to blame the downfall of the british greatness on it's eu membership. some other eu countries have done extremely well at the very same time - and not at britain's expense.

what happened to your premium brands, the take - overs by the germans and indians - is exactly what is happening in australia right now.

complacency, resting on one's laurels, believing one to be too good to fail, not investing in research, not looking forward but wishing for 'the good old days' to return. and nothing will change that unless you all change.

[jeab1980]

There are people who genuinely believe that the EU is at the root of all our ills, and that by leaving it we'll suddenly have all this money! We'll put the Great back into Great Britain! The recession is over! Of course that's what's going to happen especially with intellectual heavyweights like Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson leading the charge, what could possibly go wrong?

And as usual Scotland gets shafted by thickos south of the border. Cheers guys.

The Scots shafted themselfs voting overwhelmingly to stay in the Union, this pathetic protest vote organised by a pathetic sad SNP who belive they will get another vote to leave. The Scottish people made there beds now get over it. I won't throw insults back at you not worth it

[sandrabbit]

Europes far-right parties hailed the UKs vote to leave the European Union as a victory for their own anti-immigrant and anti-EU stance and vowed to push for similar referendums in their own countries. from the Guardian.

51 baht to pound yesterday, 46 today - wished I'd sent a bit more especially as my wife announced we needed some money today .....

[steve187]

There are people who genuinely believe that the EU is at the root of all our ills, and that by leaving it we'll suddenly have all this money! We'll put the Great back into Great Britain! The recession is over! Of course that's what's going to happen especially with intellectual heavyweights like Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson leading the charge, what could possibly go wrong?

And as usual Scotland gets shafted by thickos south of the border. Cheers guys.

the Scots shafted themselves when they voted to remain part of the UK, they have nothing to offer anyway, they are a drain on the UK

[cumgranosalum]

finally FREEDOM, ,it s historical day for all nations, thank you all Brits, bye bye massive immigration, bye bye Turkey with its 90 million people, bye bye the criminal gangs of eastern Europe, if EU leaders wanted peace in the world they should have supported Assad and Russia and not side with the terrorists.

GREAT BRITAIN will survive and become stronger it sets the example for the rest of us, time for a change.

you sound like Ozwald Mosley

[cumgranosalum]

EU was conceived to prevent the far-right from taking over - now "England" has welcomed them with open arms - reminiscent of 1930s Germany - and we know where that went.

[flyingdoc]

In less than an hour after the result was announced, Nicola Sturgeon is already muttering about having to have a second referendum, so we can expect that to be on the agenda again shortly!

She is determined to take Scotland out of the Union, and this is the very excuse she has been waiting for !

[awayego]

finally FREEDOM, ,it s historical day for all nations, thank you all Brits, bye bye massive immigration, bye bye Turkey with its 90 million people, bye bye the criminal gangs of eastern Europe, if EU leaders wanted peace in the world they should have supported Assad and Russia and not side with the terrorists.

GREAT BRITAIN will survive and become stronger it sets the example for the rest of us, time for a change.

I'll raise a glass or two tonight.

Time to put the great back into Great Britain.

my gut feeling is, gentlemen, that the exact opposite will occur.

your 'great britain' will split apart. scottland will separate and re - unite with the eu. what will happen to london, the financial hub of europe?

what means do you have to make you great, (again?)?

and apart from that, given the magnitude of this event, the margin of 'win' over 'loose' is way too slim. there will be a lot of disgruntled brits having to live with and suffer from this short sighted decision.

Absolutely agree!

This result is not a 'win' or a success for 'Great' Britain, it is a 'win' for the politics of fear and ENGLISH xenophobia.

The irony is that those areas in the North of England and in Wales which, surprisingly, came out in favour of leaving will be the first to suffer (as will Scotland) when multinational corporations re-think their investment policies and plan more for European production. Not to mention those companies/employers who have suddenly had the carpet pulled from under them and access to European markets can no longer be guaranteed.

As a Scot, long in favour of Independence and , like most Scots, a pro-European, this result may well hasten another referendum but this time the break-up of the (dis)United Kingdom. I want independence for Scotland but not at this price.

A very, very sad day for all, other than those who rejoice in the 'freedom' of being smaller and even more insignificant.

Edited June 24, 2016 by awayego