Scotland's Sturgeon says: I can win an independence vote

[Somtamnication]

"like a Sturgeon"

"touched for the very first time"... 

 

Seriously, GB would be great without our Scottish cousins, but if you wanna go, go. Stop the bs!

[RuamRudy]

14 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Spain, will not veto an attempt  by an independent Scotland to join the EU. 

 

So if Scotland were at some time an independent country, who met the financial criteria explicitly laid down by the EU, agreed to accept the Euro, agree to joining Schengen, and agree to the jurisdiction of the EU law and courts, then Spain has said it would not veto that application.

 

It has not said it will support the remaining of Scotland in the EU as a legacy of UK membership. The EU and EU commission have already made it clear that Scotland will leave when the UK leaves. 

Nor has Spain said it will support an application by an independent Scotland. Just that it won't veto it. A very clever diplomatic statement by the Spanish!

 

But of course Sturgeon will spin it for the faithful to make them think it's can all be done in Tommy Cooper style - "just like that!"

And yet, despite the many obstacles, real or invented, that you mention above, despite the undeniable uncertainties associated with taking a significant leap into the unknown, despite the overt threats of post independence barriers being put in place by rUK, more than half the population voted for pro-independence parties at the last election. I wonder why...

[transam]

3 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

And yet, despite the many obstacles, real or invented, that you mention above, despite the undeniable uncertainties associated with taking a significant leap into the unknown, despite the overt threats of post independence barriers being put in place by rUK, more than half the population voted for pro-independence parties at the last election. I wonder why...

Promises..?

[7by7]

6 hours ago, sandyf said:

As usual distorted view of the situation. The vote will not really be for independence, it will be a choice of remain in UK or get back to the EU. The outcome of the brexit negotiations is a bit immaterial unless of course there is some chance the UK will remain in the EU. Timing is quite important in respect of trying to manage a potential transition and TM is just trying to frustrate the Scottish parliament.

In voting 'for' the white paper the voters would know what they were voting for, with the option of voting against.

 I have not posted a distorted view of the situation; or if i have it is one you agree with!

 

What I said was

On ‎31‎/‎03‎/‎2017 at 11:19 AM, 7by7 said:

However, to be able to make an informed decision as to whether to stay in the UK outside the EU or become independent and seek to join the EU the Scottish people need all the facts; including the terms of the post Brexit deal the UK and EU reach.

You are saying

 

6 hours ago, sandyf said:

The vote will not really be for independence, it will be a choice of remain in UK or get back to the EU.

 The only difference between the two statements is that I'm saying the Scottish people should have all the facts before deciding; including the terms of the deal the UK reaches with the EU.

 

The white paper will not include those terms because they will not be known until negotiations between the UK and EU are completed; so Scottish voters won't know everything they need to in order to make an informed decision.

 

Whether Scotland leaves the UK before or after Brexit wont make any difference to Scotland's position regarding EU membership; either way it will be a country seeking EU membership.

 

But leaving the UK before Brexit could make an enormous difference to Scotland's future; depending upon the final Brexit deal.

 

All I, and the government, are saying is get Brexit done and dusted first, wait until all the facts are known before having Indyref2. That way the Scottish people will know exactly how each option is likely to effect them and Scotland.

 

You seem to agree with Sturgeon that they should be forced into deciding before Brexit, before all those facts are known.

 

Why?

 

What difference would a waiting until after full Brexit make?

 

The obvious difference being that the desire for independence currently expressed in some opinion polls will fall when the Scottish people know exactly what the options mean to them so that, like in 2012, only 36%, or even less, of the Scottish electorate will desire it enough to go out and vote for it.

 

That is what Sturgeon is afraid of; that is the real reason why she wants to rush Scotland into a referendum before they have all the facts.

 

 

[7by7]

1 hour ago, RuamRudy said:

despite the overt threats of post independence barriers being put in place by rUK,

Overt threats? Such as?

 

It seems that you want an independent Scotland to continue enjoying all the benefits of the Union without any of the obligations!

1 hour ago, RuamRudy said:

more than half the population voted for pro-independence parties at the last election. I wonder why

You are over egging the pudding; again.

 

In the 2015 general election, with a turn out of 71.1%, the SNP and Greens managed 51.3% of the vote. More than half the votes cast, just, but nowhere near half the population voted for them!

 

In the 2016 Scottish election, on a turnout of just 55.6%, the SNP and Greens didn't even get half the votes. Combined they had 47.1% of the constituency votes. So not even half of those who voted!

 

Interestingly, the SNP's share of the constituency vote increased from 2011 by 1.1%, the Greens by 0.6%; whilst that of the Conservatives increased by 8.1%!

 

You're a big fan of opinion polls; so should know that consistently such polls, before and after the 2014 referendum, before and after the 2016 election, have shown that around 25% of SNP voters say that they voted SNP for their domestic policies, not because they want an independent Scotland.

Edited April 2, 2017 by 7by7

[citybiker]

 

It seems that you are open to double standards in your assessment of politics. From start to finish, Brexit had nothing tangible from either side to back up their cases; we went through with it and now we are having it enacted - and still those leading us towards its conclusion have no idea of the end game - yet that is somehow good? The SNP has made crystal clear their perceived end game for Scotland, yet that is somehow bad?

 

That you don't have confidence in the SNP is irrelevant. The white paper exists - Brexit was based on nothing concrete and remains nothing but squabble and bitterness.

 

 

 

Double standards? That's your opinion so be it and it's respected.

 

Once you provide concrete tangible evidence the EU will accept Scotland once it leaves the UK upon Brexit completion not just positive words then your argument may have some credibility.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[RuamRudy]

4 minutes ago, citybiker said:

 

 

Double standards? That's your opinion so be it and it's respected.

Once you provide concrete tangible evidence the EU will accept Scotland once it leaves the UK upon Brexit completion not just positive words then your argument may have some credibility.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

 

I think the more reasonable question would be why would the EU not accept Scotland. Other than the old, and now debunked, story about Spain, there has been nothing in the way of negative talk from the EU on the prospects of Scotland joining.

 

Other than that, as has been stated by Brussels, they cannot begin formal negotiations with Scotland while it remains part of the UK, so the tangible evidence you request can only be demonstrated through confirmation of how Scotland would meet the entry criteria as an independent country.

[NanLaew]

On 3/31/2017 at 3:35 AM, RuamRudy said:

... As Holyrood voted 69/59 in favour of indyref2, the will of the people has already been made clear.

Sturgeon thumbed her nose at the opinion polls and went for the parliamentary vote because she knew that was the only way of claiming anything like the support she does not have. Furthermore, since the SNP do not have the majority in Holyrood, they earnestly courted the Green party in order to make the numbers marginally more impressive. If we are talking about the Scottish people, there has been absolutely no indication that the 'will of the people' is being served here. Not even a wee bit.

[Basil B]

5 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

more than half the population voted for pro-independence parties at the last election.

• Which Election?
• Please name the parties you class as pro-Independence?

[citybiker]

 
I think the more reasonable question would be why would the EU not accept Scotland. Other than the old, and now debunked, story about Spain, there has been nothing in the way of negative talk from the EU on the prospects of Scotland joining.
 
Other than that, as has been stated by Brussels, they cannot begin formal negotiations with Scotland while it remains part of the UK, so the tangible evidence you request can only be demonstrated through confirmation of how Scotland would meet the entry criteria as an independent country.

Agreed, It is a reasonable question however I'll just observe/monitor that debate contribution from afar.





Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[RuamRudy]

1 minute ago, Basil B said:

• Which Election?
• Please name the parties you class as pro-Independence?

I was a bit over exuberant in my figures - my apologies.  With regards to the Scottish Parliamentary Elections of 2016, I quoted the figures incorrectly:

 

The SNP got 46.5% of the constituency vote and 41.7% of the regional vote.

The Greens got 0.6% of the constituency vote and 6.6% of the regional vote.

 

The are both pro-independence.

 

[nontabury]

20 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

 

I think the more reasonable question would be why would the EU not accept Scotland. Other than the old, and now debunked, story about Spain, there has been nothing in the way of negative talk from the EU on the prospects of Scotland joining.

 

Other than that, as has been stated by Brussels, they cannot begin formal negotiations with Scotland while it remains part of the UK, so the tangible evidence you request can only be demonstrated through confirmation of how Scotland would meet the entry criteria as an independent country.

 

Before,the Spanish took a hard view on a seperated Scotland joining the EU.

Now when they are attempting to disrupt the UK stance' they soften their attitude.

 When the negotiations are completed,what's to stop them reverting to their hard line view?

 

 

 

[RuamRudy]

2 minutes ago, nontabury said:

 

Before,the Spanish took a hard view on a seperated Scotland joining the EU.

Now when they are attempting to disrupt the UK stance' they soften their attitude.

 When the negotiations are completed,what's to stop them reverting to their hard line view?

 

 

 

 

No, you are mistaken. Maybe the clip of Jim Rogers highlighting the harsh economic reality that an independent England is going to have to face has affected your memory, but I have posted previously on several ocassions a link to an FT article from 2014 where the Spanish Foreign Minister said exactly what the Guardian reported today. The Spanish stance has not changed - but it appears that the Guardian is maybe stepping away from the Project Fear crowd...

[Basil B]

5 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

16 minutes ago, Basil B said:

• Which Election?
• Please name the parties you class as pro-Independence?

I was a bit over exuberant in my figures - my apologies.  With regards to the Scottish Parliamentary Elections of 2016, I quoted the figures incorrectly:

 

The SNP got 46.5% of the constituency vote and 41.7% of the regional vote.

The Greens got 0.6% of the constituency vote and 6.6% of the regional vote.

 

The are both pro-independence.

SNP 1,059,897 Votes

Scottish Greens 13,172 Votes

= 1,073,069 for so called pro-Independence parties

The population of Scotland in 2011 was 5,295,000

 

Just to remind you, I asked the above question in reply to your quote:

6 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

more than half the population voted for pro-independence parties at the last election

No way can you count 20% as "more than half"...

[RuamRudy]

1 minute ago, Basil B said:

SNP 1,059,897 Votes

Scottish Greens 13,172 Votes

= 1,073,069 for so called pro-Independence parties

The population of Scotland in 2011 was 5,295,000

 

Just to remind you, I asked the above question in reply to your quote:

No way can you count 20% as "more than half"...

Yes, you are quite right - I incorrectly used the word population when I should have used voters who expressed their democratic right to vote. Then again, I was a little off in my numbers too, must be too much sun. So, 20% if you include every man, woman and child, yes.

 

[mommysboy]

7 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Spain, will not veto an attempt  by an independent Scotland to join the EU. 

 

So if Scotland were at some time an independent country, who met the financial criteria explicitly laid down by the EU, agreed to accept the Euro, agree to joining Schengen, and agree to the jurisdiction of the EU law and courts, then Spain has said it would not veto that application.

 

It has not said it will support the remaining of Scotland in the EU as a legacy of UK membership. The EU and EU commission have already made it clear that Scotland will leave when the UK leaves. 

Nor has Spain said it will support an application by an independent Scotland. Just that it won't veto it. A very clever diplomatic statement by the Spanish!

 

But of course Sturgeon will spin it for the faithful to make them think it's can all be done in Tommy Cooper style - "just like that!"

And in any case Spain's statement has little to do with concern for Scotland and more to do with turning up the heat on Brexit negotiations.  Empty rhetoric.

 

 

[mommysboy]

I can understand independence seeking Scots spitting feathers.  Any negotiated Brexit deal is unlikely to come anywhere near matching present terms for UK, whereas crashing out puts UK in turmoil.  After this is finished Scots will be so mired in the brown swamp they'll be financially crippled.  The EU application wouldn't likely see the light of day for a good 2 decades.

 

I wonder why EU isn't using Scotland as a gambit like it is Gibraltar.  It could be they are 'untouchable' : as in toxic.

[anon4546543]

8 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

I think words do fail you. I was asking the OP to be more specific about his statement that the SNP had 'made a mess of running Scotland'. Your response, like his, offers nothing in the way of backing up that suggestion.

 

As for Spain, well I have been trying to educate people for a long time but it is like talking to a brick wall. Maybe today's Guardian will help you understand that, there also, you are very wrong?

 

Spain drops plan to impose veto if Scotland tries to join EU

"Spain has said it would not veto an attempt by an independent Scotland to join the EU, in the clearest sign yet that Brexit has softened Madrid’s longstanding opposition.

Alfonso Dastis, the Spanish foreign minister, made it clear that the government would not block an independent Scotland’s EU hopes, although he stressed that Madrid would not welcome the disintegration of the UK. "

Yes of course a debt ridden and sponge on the EU (Spain) will welcome a debt ridden and sponge on UK (Scotland). They can look at each other over the EU table and smile smugly about how everyone else will now solve their problems. Much in the same way as Greece, Italy, most of Eastern Europe, Portugal, are already doing.  

[Basil B]

26 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Yes, you are quite right - I incorrectly used the word population when I should have used voters who expressed their democratic right to vote. Then again, I was a little off in my numbers too, must be too much sun. So, 20% if you include every man, woman and child, yes.

 

I would also say 55% turn out for the Scottish General Election as being very low especially compared to 85% turnout for the Scottish Independence Referendum, seems to me those who did not vote are not interested in Scottish self rule.  

[Basil B]

14 hours ago, Basil B said:

I would also say 55% turn out for the Scottish General Election as being very low especially compared to 85% turnout for the Scottish Independence Referendum, seems to me those who did not vote are not interested in Scottish self rule.  

and a 71% turn out in Scotland for the 2015 United Kingdom General Election.

[transam]

14 hours ago, Basil B said:

I would also say 55% turn out for the Scottish General Election as being very low especially compared to 85% turnout for the Scottish Independence Referendum, seems to me those who did not vote are not interested in Scottish self rule.  

Yep, I think many Scots folk think they have a "wannabe" on their hands....

[sandyf]

On 4/2/2017 at 3:49 PM, Baerboxer said:

 

Spain, will not veto an attempt  by an independent Scotland to join the EU. 

 

So if Scotland were at some time an independent country, who met the financial criteria explicitly laid down by the EU, agreed to accept the Euro, agree to joining Schengen, and agree to the jurisdiction of the EU law and courts, then Spain has said it would not veto that application.

 

It has not said it will support the remaining of Scotland in the EU as a legacy of UK membership. The EU and EU commission have already made it clear that Scotland will leave when the UK leaves. 

Nor has Spain said it will support an application by an independent Scotland. Just that it won't veto it. A very clever diplomatic statement by the Spanish!

 

But of course Sturgeon will spin it for the faithful to make them think it's can all be done in Tommy Cooper style - "just like that!"

You are obviously entitled to put you opinion any way you choose. One of the reasons NS wants the referendum as early as possible is she is perfectly aware that an application to join the EU would take at least 2 years, even if looked upon favourably. To anyone who wants to belong to the EU, the UK's relationship with the UK is immaterial.

 

Many on this forum continue to make derogatory comments regarding the SNP.  Those that are on a frozen UK pension should bear in mind that of the 28 MP's that supported EDM 767, 18 were from the SNP.

[rockingrobin]

28 minutes ago, sandyf said:

You are obviously entitled to put you opinion any way you choose. One of the reasons NS wants the referendum as early as possible is she is perfectly aware that an application to join the EU would take at least 2 years, even if looked upon favourably. To anyone who wants to belong to the EU, the UK's relationship with the UK is immaterial.

 

Many on this forum continue to make derogatory comments regarding the SNP.  Those that are on a frozen UK pension should bear in mind that of the 28 MP's that supported EDM 767, 18 were from the SNP.

with reference to frozen pensions currently 31 MPs from the SNP are supporting EDM 1097 , 

[Flustered]

The following makes interesting reading.

 

If Scotland is such a Utopia and a world leading country, why do so many Scots leave? Among the English speaking nations, it has the highest desertion rates of all.

 

http://www.scotsman.com/news/the-scottish-diaspora-how-scots-spread-across-the-globe-1-4011012

 

Independence will only increase the number of Scots leaving but perhaps this is what the SNP want?

[7by7]

5 hours ago, sandyf said:

Many on this forum continue to make derogatory comments regarding the SNP.  Those that are on a frozen UK pension should bear in mind that of the 28 MP's that supported EDM 767, 18 were from the SNP.

18 out of 56.

4 hours ago, rockingrobin said:

with reference to frozen pensions currently 31 MPs from the SNP are supporting EDM 1097 , 

31 out of 56.

 

Of course, an individual MP supporting an Early Day Motion is a matter for him or her; nothing to do with their party's policy.

 

Even  it were, as I said earlier

On ‎02‎/‎04‎/‎2017 at 11:12 AM, 7by7 said:

polls, before and after the 2014 referendum, before and after the 2016 election, have shown that around 25% of SNP voters say that they voted SNP for their domestic policies, not because they want an independent Scotland.

 

Of course, supporting an EDM about frozen ex pat pensions by individual members of any party does not mean their party's policies in other areas are sound.

Edited April 4, 2017 by 7by7
Grammer

[transam]

1 minute ago, Flustered said:

The following makes interesting reading.

 

If Scotland is such a Utopia and a world leading country, why do so many Scots leave? Among the English speaking nations, it has the highest desertion rates of all.

 

http://www.scotsman.com/news/the-scottish-diaspora-how-scots-spread-across-the-globe-1-4011012

 

Independence will only increase the number of Scots leaving but perhaps this is what the SNP want?

Not sure about that, but I do know a Scots guy that goes around immigrant religious establishments telling them to vote against his countrymen to remain....It's true...

[RuamRudy]

55 minutes ago, Flustered said:

 

Independence will only increase the number of Scots leaving but perhaps this is what the SNP want?

Can you provide anything other than baseless speculation to back this statement?

[RuamRudy]

1 hour ago, Flustered said:

If Scotland is such a Utopia and a world leading country, why do so many Scots leave? Among the English speaking nations, it has the highest desertion rates of all.

Who has ever said it was a utopia? In fact, it is far from it. But the fact that you made this point demonstrates how little you understand of the political situation in Scotland and the motivations of the independence movement. The desire for independence is not because Scotland is so great; it is because we believe Scotland could be so much better if we were only able to make our own decisions, based on Scottish needs and Scottish requirements.

[jonwilly]

I do remember one  of Billy Connolly's skits about

It's our Oil.

Mind you the speaker was from the Shetlands & Orkneys.

 

john

Anyone know where I can find a copy of Billy's Crucifixion, literally Crucified me as a young squaddie.

 

 

[nontabury]

10 hours ago, sandyf said:

You are obviously entitled to put you opinion any way you choose. One of the reasons NS wants the referendum as early as possible is she is perfectly aware that an application to join the EU would take at least 2 years, even if looked upon favourably. To anyone who wants to belong to the EU, the UK's relationship with the UK is immaterial.

 

Many on this forum continue to make derogatory comments regarding the SNP.  Those that are on a frozen UK pension should bear in mind that of the 28 MP's that supported EDM 767, 18 were from the SNP.

Easy for them to support, as they'll never gain power in the UK. As for Scotland, well if Scotland ever becomes seperated, I' m sure the SNP will then spend even more money,the problem is, where will the money come from.