Oil prices have been experiencing dramatic swings over the past two weeks as the war involving Iran, the United States and Israel disrupts global energy markets. The cost of crude oil rarely dominates everyday conversation, but the recent volatility has pushed it firmly into the spotlight. Prices are currently trading more than a third higher than they were before the conflict began. Don’t miss the latest headlines from Thailand and around the world. Get the Asean Now Briefing newsletter, delivered daily. Sign up here. Much of the surge has been driven by attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping routes, as well as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply Historic market volatilityOil markets saw particularly extreme fluctuations earlier this week. According to Faisal Islam, economics editor at BBC News, Monday became the most volatile day in oil trading history. Much of the attention has centred on the price of Brent crude oil benchmark, a widely used global benchmark that heavily influences international energy prices. Oil is typically traded through contracts for delivery at a later date, meaning prices today often reflect expectations about future supply. Lindsay James, an investment strategist at Quilter, said current price rises largely reflect fears about supply shortages in the coming months. War fears push prices higherBefore the conflict escalated, oil was trading at roughly $71 per barrel. Prices surged rapidly once the strikes on Iran began. Market anxiety intensified after comments from Saad al-Kaabi, the energy minister of Qatar, who warned that Gulf oil and gas producers might halt production within days. That statement pushed oil prices to a two-year high. When markets reopened after the weekend, the price briefly approached $120 per barrel. Sudden crash after political signalsThe sharp rise was followed by an equally dramatic fall. Reports emerged that the International Energy Agency was preparing a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves to stabilize markets. At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the war might soon be nearing an end, describing the situation as “very complete, pretty much.” The combination of these signals triggered a rapid sell-off in the market. By the end of Monday, oil had fallen nearly $30 per barrel from its earlier peak. James described the dramatic change as “extraordinary even by the volatile standards of commodities,” adding that the world is currently experiencing an energy shock without modern precedent. Confusion over tanker escort claimAnother moment of turbulence came when U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on the social media platform X that American forces had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. Following the post, benchmark prices briefly plunged to around $82 per barrel. However, the message later disappeared from Wright’s account. The White House subsequently confirmed that the claim was incorrect and that the U.S. Navy had not escorted any tankers through the crucial shipping route. Prices quickly rebounded to about $86 per barrel after the clarification, highlighting how sensitive global markets have become to developments in the conflict. Join the discussion? Already a member? Adapted by ASEAN Now · Source · 12.03 2026
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