Delaying election seen harming the interests of both junta and voters

[webfact]

Delaying election seen harming the interests of both junta and voters

By KAS CHANWANPEN 
THE NATION

 

 

WITH THE government concerned that post-election activities might overlap with the coronation of His Majesty the King in May, a political scientist warns that delaying the vote might do both voters and the junta regime more harm than good.

 

 

Suspicion is widespread that discussions about delaying the election tentatively scheduled for February 24 do not stem entirely from worries of a knock-on effect on the enthronement of the King.

 

With the junta’s history of repeatedly breaking its promise to allow an election, critics are sensing another “ploy” to try and cling to power or gain advantage over other parties ahead of the polls.

 

It could be, some say, that the pro-junta Phalang Pracharat Party is unprepared for the contest as scheduled, so the regime wants to delay it for another month.

 

Stithorn Thananithichot, a political scientist at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, said he did not think the delay would make much difference in terms of campaign strategies or policies. He advised voters to be on alert for any changes made among the MP candidates.

 

If Phalang Pracharat is in fact benefiting from a delay, it could be that it lured former MPs from other parties last month and must now wait for their membership to become valid so that they are eligible to run, Stithorn said.

 

The Constitution requires MP candidates to have been members of their parties for at least 30 days before applying to contest an election.

 

There is no evidence that the pro-junta party coaxed more former MPs away from other parties than it had two months ago, Stithorn said, but if it did, an election delay would prove helpful.

 

He speculated that the postponement might also be premised on the junta seeking to steer voter attention away from a slew of scandals that surfaced late last year. These included a controversial election fundraiser, a populist “New Year gift” programme and a deputy premier’s array of luxury wristwatches.

 

If that were the case, Stithorn said, the effort was unlikely to succeed.

 

“Delaying the election wouldn’t really ensure that voters forget all about the scandals or that the junta’s image would improve,” he said. “Other parties could just dig it up again at any time during the campaign.”

 

 

And if the junta’s festive-season cash handout to low-income earners was really an attempt to win votes, any voter goodwill it inspired towards Phalang Pracharat might have worn off by the time the re-scheduled election takes place, Stithorn added.

 

He thus believes the delay will do the regime no good as it seeks to retain power after the election.

 

Nor does the problem stop there, he said. An unreliable election timetable is bound to affect voter confidence.

 

“A lot of people are unsure about whether the election will be free and fair,” Stithorn said. “All these moves to alter the schedule just seem to confirm their perceptions.”

 

Some voters, as a result, might decide to stay home on election day, he said.

 

“When they’re not sure if they can trust the process, they might just forsake their right to vote. They won’t feel their vote matters if the election is fraudulent.”

 

However, he noted that a recent poll by King Prajadhipok’s Institute found enthusiasm about the election rising in the Northeast. Citizens expressed hope that their participation would ensure the desired outcome and prevent poll fraud.

 

Another concern about the delay involves the constitutionality of the election.

 

Right now two other possible dates are on the table. It has been reported that the Election Commission prefers March 10 if February 24 is not suitable, while the government has suggested March 24 as the perfect date to avoid any conflict with the coronation.

 

The debate now centres on the constitutional requirement that the election be “completed” within 150 days of the MP-election law coming into effect with its publication in the Royal Gazette. The question is whether it is the casting of ballots that must be completed – or the lengthier process that ends with the formal announcement of the results.

 

If it were the latter, said political scientist Chamnan Chanruang, balloting on March 24 would leave insufficient time to announce the results within 150 days and the election could be declared unconstitutional and voided. Stithorn and Chamnan agreed that March 10 would be the safer choice if the election cannot go ahead on February 24.

 

Hundreds of protesters in Bangkok yesterday demonstrated against talk of postponing the poll. They gathered on the skywalk around Victory Monument holding banners that read “No Delay”.

 

Observers have already begun voicing concern that any foul play aimed at upending the election could give rise to more street protests, which the junta has pledged to control.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/breakingnews/30361716

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-01-07

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[webfact]

Pro-election group protests proposed poll delay

By The Nation

 

 

A pro-election group on Sunday staged a protest demanding that the general election be held as earlier scheduled in February.

 

Hundreds of pro-election demonstrators gathered peacefully at the Victory Monument skywalk on Sunday, urging the government not to postpone the election date. 

 

The government and the Election Commission [EC] had earlier scheduled the next election for February 24 after all the concerned organic laws came into effect. 

 

 

But to avoid any overlap with the coronation ceremony of HM Maha Vajiralongkorn set for May 4-6, the government has hinted that February 24 may no longer be an appropriate election date. They have suggested that the election be postponed by a month to March 24.

 

However, a source from the EC revealed that the agency preferred March 10 as the new election date.

 

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30361719

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-01-07

[RichardColeman]

Seems to me the whole reason for delaying the election is to cause a riot to delay the elections !

[bluesofa]

6 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Seems to me the whole reason for delaying the election is to cause a riot to delay the elections !

I can understand your thinking on that.

The junta has said before that any protests will 'delay' any election, so what better way than to claim 'a threat to national security' as the usual excuse to cause an 'indefinite delay'.

 

[YetAnother]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

“Delaying the election wouldn’t really ensure that voters forget all about the scandals

on balance he is wrong; he is right amongst thinking individuals but wrong when it comes to the unthinking masses

[Eligius]

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

Seems to me the whole reason for delaying the election is to cause a riot to delay the elections !

Yes. Myself and others have said month after month that eventually there will be street demonstrations against the junta - but they will only number in the thousands, or tens of thousands, of people (not MILLIONS), and this will give the junta the excuse they need to clamp down even further with more oppressive measures.

 

As always, there is only one way out of this seeming impasse - and it lies in the hands of the MILLIONS and MILLIONS of Thais. if the Thais act in solidarity and realise finally that THEY (not the junta) are the  true holders of sovereignty in the land of Thailand, they can gain their freedom. But it will not be easy - or safe; it requires great courage.

 

Do the Thais (en masse) possess such courage?

 

I think we all know the answer to that one!

 

 

 

[Ossy]

News just in: Thailand’s Junta government has admitted its inability to organize the election that has 4 times – or is it 5 (I lose count) – been promised and then cancelled since 2015. The Election Commission, the government-appointed election watch-dog that sees to the arranging of elections, now – wisely, in my view – refuses to take any further steps until the NCPO gets the election date set in stone by a royal decree in the Royal Gazette, a process which itself requires careful arranging. But therein lies the problem – this regime’s inability to do anything carefully. All too familiar, now, is their act-now-think-later modus-operandi that gets applied to pretty well every event, be it a road-safety campaign, an education top-to-bottom or helping people to grow trees . . . forests, even. No-one, now – not even the NCPO – dare try to put a firm date on the election that, it seems, simply does not want to happen. But, that said, how could any regime be expected to perform with care and diligence with such a despot at its helm?

During the early 2014 street unrest, Prawit – the real architect of the coup and the one who probably had most to lose, should his corruption network fall apart – might, for once, have acted intelligently in pushing his favourite pit bull terrier, Prayuth, into the action-man role during the military takeover, when people needed scaring – and his Friday pm TV specials did that alright – but now that some serious governing needs to be done, Prayuth has demonstrated, time after time, that his anti-Thaksin paranoia won’t take a back seat and it’s there for the world to see in his recent circus ringmaster performance in staging one obscenely expensive and one-sided PR stunt after another …  and all in the single-minded obsession of keeping Thaksin, and/or his anti-establishment kind, out of government.

[zzaa09]

9 minutes ago, Ossy said:

News just in: Thailand’s Junta government has admitted its inability to organize the election that has 4 times – or is it 5 (I lose count) – been promised and then cancelled since 2015. The Election Commission, the government-appointed election watch-dog that sees to the arranging of elections, now – wisely, in my view – refuses to take any further steps until the NCPO gets the election date set in stone by a royal decree in the Royal Gazette, a process which itself requires careful arranging. But therein lies the problem – this regime’s inability to do anything carefully. All too familiar, now, is their act-now-think-later modus-operandi that gets applied to pretty well every event, be it a road-safety campaign, an education top-to-bottom or helping people to grow trees . . . forests, even. No-one, now – not even the NCPO – dare try to put a firm date on the election that, it seems, simply does not want to happen. But, that said, how could any regime be expected to perform with care and diligence with such a despot at its helm?

 

During the early 2014 street unrest, Prawit – the real architect of the coup and the one who probably had most to lose, should his corruption network fall apart – might, for once, have acted intelligently in pushing his favourite pit bull terrier, Prayuth, into the action-man role during the military takeover, when people needed scaring – and his Friday pm TV specials did that alright – but now that some serious governing needs to be done, Prayuth has demonstrated, time after time, that his anti-Thaksin paranoia won’t take a back seat and it’s there for the world to see in his recent circus ringmaster performance in staging one obscenely expensive and one-sided PR stunt after another …  and all in the single-minded obsession of keeping Thaksin, and/or his anti-establishment kind, out of government.

Thaksin....anti-establishment?

[Ossy]

9 minutes ago, zzaa09 said:

Thaksin....anti-establishment?

Apart from any pocket-lining mischief that Thaksin may be accused of, I've put him firmly in the pro-people camp. That's more than enough to deserve the anti-establishment tag, I thought . . . or is there more to this man than I realised?

[a977]

If the so called Government "and I use the term loosely" had of held the election when first promised they would not be in this situation da da. Now they find themselves with the population turning against them. Now the problem is what will Pinocchio do after the election he's a retired General, not many calls for that line of work around the world, as for Fatty P well nough said, he'll probably live on his watches  and don't say their not his!!!!!!!!!!

[MaxLee]

Why don't they admit,..... We will never get rid of them. The current ruling regime wants to stay in power 4ever

[Hockeybik]

1 hour ago, Ossy said:

Apart from any pocket-lining mischief that Thaksin may be accused of, I've put him firmly in the pro-people camp. That's more than enough to deserve the anti-establishment tag, I thought . . . or is there more to this man than I realised?

I don't think a politician ever existed that was not totally pro himself (or herself).

[spidermike007]

2 hours ago, zzaa09 said:

Thaksin....anti-establishment?

 

Yes, absolutely. No matter how you feel about him, he passed legislation that was the first time in the history of the nation, that something benefitted the masses, with universal health care. The establishment, the elite, and the super wealthy despised him for that. How dare you help the people. How dare you spend treasury funds on the masses. 

 

The army is going to do what they can to hold onto power. I think they realize this is the last hurrah. I do not think the people will tolerate another coup in the future. I hope that is the case. The army is so far past the sell by date. They are virtually useless to the people. And the administration is incompetent beyond one's wildest imagination.

 

You must go. Get out now. You are not wanted. You are not needed. You are not capable. You are destroying your nation. Your people do not like you. You are unpopular and despised by the masses. Get out now!

 

 

[ZeVonderBearz]

Another reason it's nice to have pavement in city is that you can walk on it when protesting. Fair play to these people but protesting on skywalk ain't gonna get you seen by passersby. 

[Srikcir]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

The Constitution requires MP candidates to have been members of their parties for at least 30 days before applying to contest an election.

Wouldn't this apply to Prayut if he wants to run as a party member candidate?

Especially since he was not a member of any political party in any previous elections.

If so, an election delay allows him more time to count possible pro-military party votes, decide if more MP candidates need to be "flipped" to the party that Prayut wants to become the PM candidate and decide if further "mobile cabinet" are needed around the country to remind the electorate of his achievements as PM.

Of course Prayut can always Article 44 himself into compliance.

[Eric Loh]

4 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

Wouldn't this apply to Prayut if he wants to run as a party member candidate?

Especially since he was not a member of any political party in any previous elections.

If so, an election delay allows him more time to count possible pro-military party votes, decide if more MP candidates need to be "flipped" to the party that Prayut wants to become the PM candidate and decide if further "mobile cabinet" are needed around the country to remind the electorate of his achievements as PM.

Of course Prayut can always Article 44 himself into compliance.

He has up to mid January to be a political party member to be nominated if the official election date is 24th Feb. Maybe reason for him to delay the election to buy more incumbent MPs. If he does indeed go that route, he will be ineligible to be nominated as an outside candidate. The man is weighing all the dirty tricks to stay in power.

 

I doubt Article 44 can be used to circumvent royal gazetted laws that took effect in December. The government will need to organize election within 150 days of the laws taking effect according to the constitution.   

[pieeyed]

Sooner the present junta is gone the better.

 

[Ossy]

5 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

If he does indeed go that route, he will be ineligible to be nominated as an outside candidate.

Always happy to get your EC-like take on things, EL and hoping you don't take that too much as an insult ????    Here's a Q for you: should Prayuth manage to fulfil his PM-ship dream, what do you see happening to the present deputy PM's, if, let's say, it's the PPRP party that holds sway in the senate post-election? And, come to that and looking at even deader wood, what would happen to Anupong and the other General-ly useless Ministry incumbents?

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, Ossy said:

Always happy to get your EC-like take on things, EL and hoping you don't take that too much as an insult ????    Here's a Q for you: should Prayuth manage to fulfil his PM-ship dream, what do you see happening to the present deputy PM's, if, let's say, it's the PPRP party that holds sway in the senate post-election? And, come to that and looking at even deader wood, what would happen to Anupong and the other General-ly useless Ministry incumbents?

Prawit should head the Ministry of Ancient Siam because he looks good in that green baggy chong kraben. Anupong can remain as Head Home Ministry because he spent most time at home and invisible from work.

Prayut in Parliament will be fun to watch without the protection of post coup power and laws and as an ordinary citizen. Looking forward to a vote of no confidence by the majority anti military parliamentarians that will spill onto the streets. He wouldn't last in a democratic world. 

[zzaa09]

8 hours ago, MaxLee said:

Why don't they admit,..... We will never get rid of them. The current ruling regime wants to stay in power 4ever

Because they've been allowed to hang around forever.

 

Most don't truly realize that this militarism power fold goes way back.

Part and parcel of the protection racket.

 

 

Reasonably simple to process if your in tune with contemporary Thai history.

[bluesofa]

12 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Prawit should head the Ministry of Ancient Siam because he looks good in that green baggy chong kraben. {snipped}

He's halfway there - he's ancient already.

But if he came to 'head the Ministry of Ancient Siam' wouldn't he have swap his watches with sundials, bequeathed to him by ancient ancestor?

[Ossy]

4 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Prawit should head the Ministry of Ancient Siam because he looks good in that green baggy chong kraben. Anupong can remain as Head Home Ministry because he spent most time at home and invisible from work.

Prayut in Parliament will be fun to watch without the protection of post coup power and laws and as an ordinary citizen. Looking forward to a vote of no confidence by the majority anti military parliamentarians that will spill onto the streets. He wouldn't last in a democratic world. 

Thanks, Eric. I knew I could count on you to come up trumps . . . or farts, maybe, given the windy political weather that you forecast.

[chama]

If leadership is not smart enough to figure out how to have an election they are not smart enough to govern. If the King's coronation is set in stone then move the date you do control, there never seems to have been a problem with changing the constitution in the past.

[sjaak327]

13 hours ago, Srikcir said:

Wouldn't this apply to Prayut if he wants to run as a party member candidate?

Especially since he was not a member of any political party in any previous elections.

If so, an election delay allows him more time to count possible pro-military party votes, decide if more MP candidates need to be "flipped" to the party that Prayut wants to become the PM candidate and decide if further "mobile cabinet" are needed around the country to remind the electorate of his achievements as PM.

Of course Prayut can always Article 44 himself into compliance.

He still has time, but I doubt he will have the guts to actually run for office. he simply has his own little backdoor he seems to want to take advantage off. The one where 250 votes are already in his pocket, without even a single vote from the electorate. 

[HAKAPALITA]

Seems to bother lefty ferangs here more then Thais.


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[madmen]

 the Thais have organised massive rallies right around the country as I'm typing. I can't believe what I'm seeing on TV.. All stations! 

 

Oops I was day dreaming again. 

Thais couldn't give a rats. They love the general and that's a fact 

[sjaak327]

8 minutes ago, madmen said:

 the Thais have organised massive rallies right around the country as I'm typing. I can't believe what I'm seeing on TV.. All stations! 

 

Oops I was day dreaming again. 

Thais couldn't give a rats. They love the general and that's a fact 

Only in your dream world, in the real world, he is a PM, without even a single member of the Thai electorate voting for him or his party. You seem to be forgetting how he staged a coup to get to power. 

 

Your posts just illustrate you have no affinity with the Thais whatsoever. Tip, your girlfriend and her 20 co-workers are not a representative sample of the Thai population as a whole. 

[bannork]

15 hours ago, Ossy said:

Always happy to get your EC-like take on things, EL and hoping you don't take that too much as an insult ????    Here's a Q for you: should Prayuth manage to fulfil his PM-ship dream, what do you see happening to the present deputy PM's, if, let's say, it's the PPRP party that holds sway in the senate post-election? And, come to that and looking at even deader wood, what would happen to Anupong and the other General-ly useless Ministry incumbents?

The PPRP have potentially a serious problem. It appears their leader, Uttama, was not a member of the party when he was appointed. Talk about naivety! If true, this will result in his removal from politics and possibly dissolution of the party. 

No wonder Prayuth still won't commit himself.