Thai Jan exports fall 5.7 percent year-on-year, a bigger drop than forecast

 

FILE PHOTO - A shipping container is lifted from a truck to load onto a ship at a port in Bangkok, Thailand, March 25, 2016. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's customs-cleared exports dropped for a third straight month in January, falling a more-than expected 5.65 percent from a year earlier, the commerce ministry said on Friday.

 

Analysts in a Reuters poll had predicted a 1 percent slip in exports, a key driver of Thai growth.

 

In December, shipments contracted 1.72 percent from a year earlier.

 

The export decline in January was due to falling shipments of rice, electronics, gold and cars, the ministry said.

 

Exports to the United States rose 8.3 percent in January from a year earlier but ones to China slumped 16.7 percent.

 

The strong baht, Asia's best performing currency this year, has increasingly hurt exports, particularly rice orders, a ministry official said.

 

In January, imports surprisingly jumped 13.99 percent from a year earlier, after sliding 8.15 percent in December. The poll forecast was for a 1.0 percent decline in January. Officials said the import surge was due to imports of arms and military weapons for drills.

 

For January, there was a trade deficit of $4.03 billion, compared with a forecast of a $320 million surplus, and December's $1.06 billion surplus.

 

The ministry has forecast export growth of 8 percent this year after a 6.7 percent increase in 2018.

 

(Reporting by Kitiphong Thaichareon; Writing by Orathai Sriring; Editing by)

 

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-02-22

Farangs Fault

They can expect exports to drop even more with the rise of the bahtcoin.if it carries on like this I'll be able to sell my property half price and go back to the uk evens.

"The ministry has forecast export growth of 8 percent this year after a 6.7 percent increase in 2018."

"...falling a more-than expected 5.65 percent from a year earlier..."

So who should we believe? The commerce ministry or the commerce ministry?

Exports in 2018 grew by 7.7%. This year that growth is expected to drop to 4.7% but that prediction was made before the sudden jump in the value of the baht. A more realistic growth figure for this year might now be about 3%.

But what of the future? Rice exports are in decline and predictably the new rice laws the junta is rushing through parliament will probably make it worse. Thailand is heavily dependent on exports but there is nothing in the crystal ball that brings hope; only a continuance of decline. 

If the junta remains in charge Thailand will eventually become the poor cousin of S.E Asia with only Chinese tourists and Chinese investment holding it's economy together.

The strong Thai Baht will make exports a real scarcity.  I guess as long as the Chinese come here and exchange their money for Baht Thailand will be happy.

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Officials said the import surge was due to imports of arms and military weapons for drills.

Cobra Gold ??????

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Officials said the import surge was due to imports of arms and military weapons for drills.

If by that they mean the kit to be used for "Cobra Gold", then presumably the troops who brought it into the country will take it with them when they leave!

5 hours ago, Emdog said:

"The ministry has forecast export growth of 8 percent this year after a 6.7 percent increase in 2018."

"...falling a more-than expected 5.65 percent from a year earlier..."

So who should we believe? The commerce ministry or the commerce ministry?

Believe the FT which is reporting that the Thai trade deficit is the biggest in six years as exports slide and worsening economic picture ahead.

A post in which the quoted content had been altered has been removed. 

9 hours ago, webfact said:

Officials said the import surge was due to imports of arms and military weapons for drills.

A bad trade off - import of military arms and weapons makes no contribution to economic growth. And if they're used as more of a domestic peace time deterrent, their value becomes a sunk and depreciating cost to the government. The result is that they eventually cost much more than their worth. 

On 2/22/2019 at 1:14 PM, happy chappie said:

They can expect exports to drop even more with the rise of the bahtcoin.if it carries on like this I'll be able to sell my property half price and go back to the uk evens.

 

You'd hope someone somewhere might twig the idea that the very strong baht might impact on exports and competitiveness. 

 

In their usual style, they'll probably increase prices to compensate - 555!

On 2/22/2019 at 1:35 PM, Cadbury said:

Exports in 2018 grew by 7.7%. This year that growth is expected to drop to 4.7% but that prediction was made before the sudden jump in the value of the baht. A more realistic growth figure for this year might now be about 3%.

But what of the future? Rice exports are in decline and predictably the new rice laws the junta is rushing through parliament will probably make it worse. Thailand is heavily dependent on exports but there is nothing in the crystal ball that brings hope; only a continuance of decline. 

If the junta remains in charge Thailand will eventually become the poor cousin of S.E Asia with only Chinese tourists and Chinese investment holding it's economy together.

 

How do you think the new proposed rice laws will negatively impact on export sales?

 

 

Is it a coincidence that the baht has soared in the last couple months just when the military junta must pay for a huge order of equipment prior to turning the government back over to civilian control after elections?... 

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 but imported items are cheaper blah blah, strong baht better blah blah 

3 minutes ago, jabis said:

but imported items are cheaper blah blah, strong baht better blah

True, but it rarely trickles down to the consumer. 

Will we see the baht drop in value or is it case of maintain the high value at all cost?

6 minutes ago, akampa said:

True, but it rarely trickles down to the consumer. 

Shouldda written <sarcasm> there, apparently my emoji's were not enough to convey that ????

Exports actual: 5.65% decline. Analysts' estimate: 1% decline

Imports actual: 13.99% increase. Analysts' estimate: 1% decline

Trade balance actual: $4.03 billion deficit. Analysts estimate: $320 million surplus

 

How's that for staggeringly bad analysts' estimates? Must be MBA grads. 

 

1 minute ago, Kaoboi Bebobp said:

Exports actual: 5.65% decline. Analysts' estimate: 1% decline

Imports actual: 13.99% increase. Analysts' estimate: 1% decline

Trade balance actual: $4.03 billion deficit. Analysts estimate: $320 million surplus

 

How's that for staggeringly bad analyses? Must be MBA grads. 

 

13.99% increase in imports, but notably which sector the imports increased x) O'well, I just go with the flow.

26 minutes ago, jabis said:

13.99% increase in imports, but notably which sector the imports increased x) O'well, I just go with the flow.

We will know on Monday when BOT release the data.

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/EconomicAndFinancial/ExternalSector/Pages/StatInternationalTrade.aspx

Now is the time to upgrade & invest in new technology which will reduce cost of manufacture

1 hour ago, sfokevin said:

Is it a coincidence that the baht has soared in the last couple months just when the military junta must pay for a huge order of equipment prior to turning the government back over to civilian control after elections?... 

You believe the military junta is going to turn the government back over to civilian control? Yeah right.

7 hours ago, akampa said:

True, but it rarely trickles down to the consumer. 

It'll never trickle down to the customer with unscrupulous importers raking in the benefits of the bahts strength.what goes up in Thailand stays up and will only go even higher.never ever have I seen anything drop in price here.thai logic is if they've paid for it once at that ridiculous price they will pay that or more forever.

baht is extremely strong, somebody stop baht.

10 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

How do you think the new proposed rice laws will negatively impact on export sales?

 

 

Farmers move to crops with no restrictions providing suitable product for home markets 

14 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

How do you think the new proposed rice laws will negatively impact on export sales?

 

 

If you can't work it out I feel sad for you. He are a few clues to help.

1. the laws have been created by blockhead military generals who wouldn't know the first thing about rice or growing it but know plenty about corruption and lining their own pockets.

2. Rice farmers are not happy about the new laws and are protesting.

3. Conglomerates look set benefit while rice farmers look set to lose or be driven out of the industry.

4 Any law the military junta promulgates usually ends up being a complete stuff up because of their inability to rationalise and realise the consequences of their actions. 

 

Try keeping up with the news instead of sitting back and sniping away at others while not offering any comment yourself. Your form has a familiar pattern.

Will the baht strengthen with the imposition of the new 800,000 Immigration laws or weaken with the mass exodus of expats taking their pensions to Vietnam?

7 hours ago, kevin612 said:

baht is extremely strong, somebody stop baht.

Not strong, just manipulated by rich Bangkokians and Junta