Something to consider...it is only a forecast!

[Puchaiyank]

Looking ahead, it should come as no surprise to see a down movement of the baht into the 29-30 per 1 USD by the end of this year and all next year...any world monetary crisis can swing the baht dramatically in either direction...so just use this chart as a baseline if you are interested in these things...

 

[1FinickyOne]

Whose forecast is this? 

 

If they can predict monthly fluctuations for 2 years out to .01 - - well??? 

 

When the dollar hit 55 during the crisis many years ago - - everyone was saying you are crazy to buy baht because it is going to 60.... 

 

 

[worgeordie]

3 hours ago, Puchaiyank said:

to see a down movement of the baht

If the predictions are correct ,it's a downward movement of the mighty $.

regards worgeordie

[CaptainNemo]

21 minutes ago, worgeordie said:

If the predictions are correct ,it's a downward movement of the mighty $.

I've seen this and I don't buy into it, and the reason is that it's based on current trends, and does not factor in the impact of China's $40+ Trillion debt bomb, that could floor China's growth and impact the Thai baht massively. There are indications of problems with China's debt beginning to emerge, and that may increase.

[worgeordie]

3 minutes ago, CaptainNemo said:

I've seen this and I don't buy into it, and the reason is that it's based on current trends, and does not factor in the impact of China's $40+ Trillion debt bomb, that could floor China's growth and impact the Thai baht massively. There are indications of problems with China's debt beginning to emerge, and that may increase.

China's debt bomb, I thought China was holding a lot of U.S. debt,

what I don't understand with so many countries in huge debt,who

is holding all this debt ?, anybody really know?

regards Worgeordie

[Isaan sailor]

At USD/THB 29, we start to look.

At USD/THB 28, we're on the next available flight out.

[NanLaew]

Pretty long straws to be clutched at there.

[Serindib]

Higher probability of THB 29 than 33 and 25 than 36 to USD.

 

The single most important factor in the THB rate is demand for THB from tourists: selling USD and buying THB.

 

67 Bn of inflow of tourist dollars into a 500 bn economy is quite significant.

 

Net Imports/exports are insignificant as is net FDI.

 

 

 

 

[Caldera]

Personally I think these ranges are too narrow. If something dramatic happens on either side, which isn't unlikely considering how much many things are in flux these days, we could see far more dramatic exchange rate moves in no time.

[Misab]

Who is the source of this?

[Berkshire]

1 hour ago, Serindib said:

Higher probability of THB 29 than 33 and 25 than 36 to USD.

 

The single most important factor in the THB rate is demand for THB from tourists: selling USD and buying THB.

 

67 Bn of inflow of tourist dollars into a 500 bn economy is quite significant.

 

Net Imports/exports are insignificant as is net FDI.

 

I've never heard of tourism spending impacting currency exchange.  $63 billion in a $500 billion economy shouldn't move the needle that much, considering most of that is not USD.  Exports would have a higher impact as exporters convert foreign currency back to THB.  I tend to believe the capital inflows in the financial markets to purchase stocks and bonds have a much more direct impact on the strength of the THB.   

[Thaifriends]

Its a long debate. It directly effects people whos earning are from overseas. These figures looks practical regardless who figured it out. I remember 29.2 or 29.4 some 12 years back.

 

US no need to worry on debt as it can print a lot and give to the Middle East againt oil.

[sawadeeken]

2 hours ago, worgeordie said:

If the predictions are correct ,it's a downward movement of the mighty $.

regards worgeordie

If the 'Mighty $' does that........ What can you imagine about the other major currencies..........

I've never known of currencies being predictable to forecast like that.....

[KKr]

is that prediction using Thai coffee or a straight or not so straight line extrapolation and, if the latter, what are the variables ?

[ExpatOilWorker]

2 hours ago, Serindib said:

Higher probability of THB 29 than 33 and 25 than 36 to USD.

 

The single most important factor in the THB rate is demand for THB from tourists: selling USD and buying THB.

 

67 Bn of inflow of tourist dollars into a 500 bn economy is quite significant.

 

Net Imports/exports are insignificant as is net FDI.

 

 

 

 

Why did you change $63 billion to $67 billion?

You work for TAT?

[Nanaplaza666]

You must have a glass bowl???? , or you can predict the future if you can predict that far ahead . 

[Airalee]

Get back to me when the recently (last 2 years) written negatively amortizing mortgages reset and recast.

[Cadbury]

4 hours ago, kenk24 said:

Whose forecast is this? 

 

If they can predict monthly fluctuations for 2 years out to .01 - - well??? 

 

When the dollar hit 55 during the crisis many years ago - - everyone was saying you are crazy to buy baht because it is going to 60.... 

 

 

This is the link,

https://longforecast.com/

[NCC1701A]

China economy die soon. Then commies cry. Should never play game with number one smart people in the world. Who? The owners of you and me no matter what country you are in.  The Federal Reserve Bank of the United States of America.

 

 

[Puchaiyank]

3 hours ago, Misab said:

Who is the source of this?

The (Thai) economy forecast agency...they have an app you can download...????

[1FinickyOne]

1 hour ago, Cadbury said:

This is the link,

https://longforecast.com/

Thanks. I would be more impressed if they showed me their past predictions... but i'll buy more gold anyway...

[allanos]

It's impossible to predict currency movements in a tight range so far out.  Geopolitical event shocks can swing currencies wildly in both directions, and who can foresee these?  Currently, those who are affected by exchange rates which may be a dollar or two, or a pound or two, higher or lower in any month, would seem to be in quite a parlous financial state, anyway.

 

For those wanting to hedge their bets, I think gold is a good shout going forward, but, of course, its future direction cannot be predicted with reliable accuracy.

[natway09]

Who owns the crystal ball ?

If could predict exactly I would be a multi

[Cadbury]

13 minutes ago, kenk24 said:

Thanks. I would be more impressed if they showed me their past predictions... but i'll buy more gold anyway...

It can be dangerous. And also depressing when comparing other currencies versus US dollar.

Australian dollar for example. Throat slashing stuff!

https://longforecast.com/australian-dollar-aud-to-usd-forecast-2017-2018-2019-2020-2021

[Puchaiyank]

47 minutes ago, allanos said:

It's impossible to predict currency movements in a tight range so far out.  Geopolitical event shocks can swing currencies wildly in both directions, and who can foresee these?  Currently, those who are affected by exchange rates which may be a dollar or two, or a pound or two, higher or lower in any month, would seem to be in quite a parlous financial state, anyway.

 

For those wanting to hedge their bets, I think gold is a good shout going forward, but, of course, its future direction cannot be predicted with reliable accuracy.

Bought gobs of gold and silver several years back...all the momentous events that was going to send precious metals sky rocketing...never happened...sold off some at a profit...some loses...divided the rest among three children and gave them the hold it until you need to sell...son probably sold it on the way home...2 girl are happy to keep for a rainy day...????

[Benmart]

My crystal ball is in the shop. The future is based on time, of which I have no influence.

[Acharn]

11 hours ago, worgeordie said:

If the predictions are correct ,it's a downward movement of the mighty $.

regards worgeordie

Yes. I've been expecting it for years. I expect it has to do with Trump's trade war. The tariffs make the US a less attractive customer (makes imported goods more expensive there). The new laws penalizing "currency manipulators" are a problem, too. Don't know if you saw a week or two ago, Bank of Thailand governor explained they don't dare to do too much to keep the baht down for that reason. There's been a wide consensus that the dollar has been overvalued since the Clinton administration. I think the uncertainty Trump has created may have an effect on the desire for US Treasury bonds, but that'll probably change when the next global turn-down starts biting.

[bkk6060]

11 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

At USD/THB 29, we start to look.

At USD/THB 28, we're on the next available flight out.

Cambodia or Vietnam?

[bkk6060]

4 hours ago, Puchaiyank said:

Bought gobs of gold and silver several years back...all the momentous events that was going to send precious metals sky rocketing...never happened...sold off some at a profit...some loses...divided the rest among three children and gave them the hold it until you need to sell...son probably sold it on the way home...2 girl are happy to keep for a rainy day...????

You didn´t buy the future of the world-Bitcoin?

[Naam]

11 hours ago, CaptainNemo said:

the impact of China's $40+ Trillion debt bomb