Could the "New China virus" affect Pattaya??

[Traubert]

44 minutes ago, Banana7 said:

The virus has now killed 26 people and infected at least 830. It is spreading at an alarming rate! 30 Million people are now in lock down reported by various news agencies.

This time last year in the UK 93 people died of flu related causes.

 

This time last year in the US 19,000 people died of flu related causes.

 

It's youngest victim so far has been 48 years old. Most of them are over 60. All the deceased had underlying medical problems.

 

The worst that will happen if you're fit and healthy is a few very unpleasant days of illness.

 

I think it's time to calm down a little.

[Peterbilt]

To answer the question in the opening post of this thread: Yes, it can and it surely will.

Today (still friday in good old Europe) the Chinese Ministry of Culture and Tourism has ordered travel agencies and tourism companies to stop selling tour packages beginning today.
According to the Chinese Tourism Academy about 55% of Chinese vacationers prefer to book a package tour.

Source:
Bloomberg

 

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by Peterbilt

[Banana7]

Now there is a rumour that China has engineered the virus to rid their population of old and infirm people in order to reduce the costs of health care and financial support for old people.

 

Releasing the virus just prior to the busiest travel season in China, Lunar New Year, so all areas of China would be infected quickly.

 

Could this be true?

[Jingthing]

31 minutes ago, Banana7 said:

Now there is a rumour that China has engineered the virus to rid their population of old and infirm people in order to reduce the costs of health care and financial support for old people.

 

Releasing the virus just prior to the busiest travel season in China, Lunar New Year, so all areas of China would be infected quickly.

 

Could this be true?

No.

[mike787]

IT has effected it.  Look at the global news.  Tourism is tanking.  Chinese new year OFF, the USA is hit with new cases this is exploding.

[Tounge Thaied]

7 minutes ago, mike787 said:

IT has effected it.  Look at the global news.  Tourism is tanking.  Chinese new year OFF, the USA is hit with new cases this is exploding.

Good preparedness video...
 

 

[banglay]

9 hours ago, Traubert said:

This time last year in the UK 93 people died of flu related causes.

 

This time last year in the US 19,000 people died of flu related causes.

 

It's youngest victim so far has been 48 years old. Most of them are over 60. All the deceased had underlying medical problems.

 

The worst that will happen if you're fit and healthy is a few very unpleasant days of illness.

 

I think it's time to calm down a little.

That is why I said ..quote :-  "Should the Pattaya expat community be worried ????" 

The majority of Expats are well over the age of 55 and what I have seen over my 12+yrs living here is that again the majority of Expat's do not live a very healthy lifestyle quite the contrary they seem to abuse their bodies at every opportunity :-  "vastly over weight.. little to not exercise ..excess drinking, smoking and eating unhealthily etc etc .. this is just the kind of person  that this virus will hit the worse ???? .

And to add too this a good proportion of this demographic has little too no healthy care insurance so will be financially unable to get good medical intervention at a crucial time ( a double whammy).the perfect storm for this " Grim reaper virus" 

[Leaver]

11 hours ago, Traubert said:

It's youngest victim so far has been 48 years old. Most of them are over 60. All the deceased had underlying medical problems.

It being over 60 an underlying medical problem?  ????

 

11 hours ago, Traubert said:

The worst that will happen if you're fit and healthy is a few very unpleasant days of illness.

Unless you are over 60.  ????

 

It must be remembered that these virus can evolve, or mutate, and change from their original form.  This is why containment is so important.  

Edited January 25, 2020 by Leaver

[Banana7]

BBC now reports 41 people have died, 1,287 confirmed cases, 3 cases in France, 1 in Australia. 1 doctor has died in Wuhan. New suspected cases are in Canada, USA, and UK.

[Banana7]

Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan, there are predictions that the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent.

 

Source is here:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1

[Pravda]

Can mods please correct the title as it's hurting my eyes and I'm not even a native English speaker. 

 

[Grumpy John]

I am not to worried about it, but then I am not I'm Pattaya.  With the number of Chinese running around the place I would be concerned.  Face mask and rubber gloves being the order of the day.  Yes rubber gloves.   Even if  only a few cover their mouth with their hand those hands can be touching a lot of common surfaces and money! 

[Pravda]

 

 

[Chivas]

Out of control now. 18 Cities locked down in last few minutes now covering 56 Million

The damage certainly already done but the Chinese need to be completely isolated now meaning no leisure travel whatsoever domestic and international

[Jingthing]

2 minutes ago, Chivas said:

Out of control now. 18 Cities locked down in last few minutes now covering 56 Million

The damage certainly already done but the Chinese need to be completely isolated now meaning no leisure travel whatsoever domestic and international

Too late. It's golden week in Thailand. 

[Banana7]

Asymptomatic infection appears possible, no outward symptoms! That means the screening done at Thailand airports will not detect all infected people entering Thailand. This was reported in the South China Morning Post.

 

 

[Tounge Thaied]

3 minutes ago, Banana7 said:

Asymptomatic infection appears possible, no outward symptoms! That means the screening done at Thailand airports will not detect all infected people entering Thailand. This was reported in the South China Morning Post.

 

 

You're catching on. A respective state of emergency will need to be declared in each respective country in order to increase the management requirements of this magnitude. And... btw, the WHO has a in international means of "state of emergency" declaration called Public Health Emergencies of International Concern and includes all the necessary recommendations how to manage something like this. 

https://www.who.int/ihr/procedures/pheic/en/
 

[morrobay]

2 hours ago, Banana7 said:

Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan, there are predictions that the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent.

 

Source is here:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1

I see in the comments in the link questions how the infections numbers were ascertained. While not questioning their numbers . I have seen report that infections in HK doubled each day. So suppose there are 2 infected people in some community on day one. With double infections daily then on day 16 in this scenario there would be 2^16 = 65,536 new infections. Then of course the total infections would include all the daily powers of two proceeding day sixteen : 2^2, 2^3, 2^4...

[Leaver]

5 hours ago, morrobay said:

I see in the comments in the link questions how the infections numbers were ascertained. While not questioning their numbers . I have seen report that infections in HK doubled each day. So suppose there are 2 infected people in some community on day one. With double infections daily then on day 16 in this scenario there would be 2^16 = 65,536 new infections. Then of course the total infections would include all the daily powers of two proceeding day sixteen : 2^2, 2^3, 2^4...

And if an infected person was on a plane, in a controlled, and enclosed atmosphere, and then the 20 people or more that were seated around them for the flight were let lose in a new city / country????

[Tayaout]

 

[morrobay]

8 hours ago, Leaver said:

And if an infected person was on a plane, in a controlled, and enclosed atmosphere, and then the 20 people or more that were seated around them for the flight were let lose in a new city / country????

Indeed my post was just for the pure numbers, not taking into account all the epidemiological variables. And spell edit. That should have been preceding.

[mike787]

could??  It is having a catastrophic impact...tourism is tanking...you have to wear a condom and a face mask with bar fines and even that is not enough.

[jacko45k]

On 1/25/2020 at 7:53 AM, banglay said:

"vastly over weight.. little to not exercise ..excess drinking, smoking and eating unhealthily etc etc .. this is just the kind of person  that this virus will hit the worse

Despite all these failings I don't see them mingling with the Chinese mainland tourists, they don't even each much Chinese food since Won Rok shut. 

[Leaver]

1 hour ago, mike787 said:

you have to wear a condom and a face mask with bar fines

You still pay a bar fine?  ????

[Leaver]

35 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Despite all these failings I don't see them mingling with the Chinese mainland tourists

The airports in Bangkok would be a good place to stay away from at the moment, but tourist have to get home after their holiday, so they no choice but to "mingle" in this air conditioned closed atmosphere.

[Leaver]

On 1/26/2020 at 10:48 AM, morrobay said:

Indeed my post was just for the pure numbers, not taking into account all the epidemiological variables. And spell edit. That should have been preceding.

I think the virus is well and truly out of the bag, so to speak.  It's all about managing the spread now, and patient management. 

[Rimmer]

Unhelpful and misleading vid and reply removed

[TaaSaparot]

[TooBigToFit]

I was at Jomtien last weekend and checking in the hotel staff told me there were many rooms available due to Chinese cancellations. Still, loads of Chinese came in and all the restaurants with the Chinese signs selling seafood at night were packed with Chinese people. Overall though, there seemed to be many more Russians than Chinese. I probably came in contact with Chinese more than 20 times while there while riding Songtaews, at the hotel restaurant, the night market, the minimarts, etc. You can't avoid them.

 

On a side note, I've heard people calling this the Wu-flu. Sounds catchy.

[Chivas]

I didnt see a single Chinese tourist last night and I went to a LOT of places.

Baht is starting to tank against the Greenback as well....9th day running its weakening