Thailand confirms six new cases of coronavirus, including four Thais - health ministry

[Rod the Sod]

Can someone help me with this one please? So the Coronavirus is easily spread just like flu. It kills the weaker, older pre-condition people, just like flu. There are many more people carrying a flu germ on planes from China than are carrying Coronavirus. It is estimated that flu kills up to 2,000 people A DAY world-wide. There are no restrictions on anyone traveling anywhere in the world with flu, but 20k cases and 400 deaths from CV and the world goes into lock-down. Borders are closed. People (Chinese) are sometimes banned from places to eat. Every newspaper and News Programme is wall-to-wall CV. It is predicted by some specialists that it will peak in a month or two and then settle down.

 

I travel around Bangkok where 80%+ of locals wear masks that have gaping holes at the side. Some experts say that these masks actually make matters worse.

 

The vast majority recover and go home with no lasting ill-effects (probably have a better immune system for the next round in fact).

 

I went for an XRay yesterday and the Specialist shook my hand warmly (no gloves) and the people waiting were split 50/50 wearing masks.

 

Given all of that, is this a massive over-reaction or is there much more too it than we read? Is something being hidden, and are the Chinese hiding something that is potentially catastrophic?

 

I am genuinely interested and happy to be corrected by those in the know.

 

Cheers RtS

[IamNoone88]

It is incredulous that anyone who has been in or visited China in the past two weeks is allowed i to Thailand and that includes transits. Singapore stopped this more than a week ago along with other countries. If this continues to get into the population then this will cost the Gov't Billions of Dollars. Cheaper and much safer to stop it now than let it run.

[hotchilli]

16 hours ago, DrTuner said:

These are likely still imports, Thai-to-Thai is just brewing now and that wave will start to show up in 1-2 weeks.

And the ministers reaction... lets promote domestic tourism to fill the void of absent Chinese....

In control is not a word I would use!!

[rabas]

16 minutes ago, xtrnuno41 said:

Amazing Thailand:

Here in the flat they put up a sanitizer for the scanner to get in.

Once you are on the other site, you need to push a button to open with no sanitizer at all.

And then besides you have to open the door yourself, so everyone touches .... the door handle.

And everyone picks up the sanitizer bottle and holds it firmly in hand.  Yes, we have that here too.

Edited February 5, 2020 by rabas

[SiSePuede419]

16 hours ago, observer90210 said:

And meantime at the airport, it's to the Chinese. Totally irresponsabile attitude, considering the majority of nations who have banned all inbound and outbound flights to China.

 

Maybe TAT hired Harvey Weinstein as a consultant?!?

 

"Coronavirus?  What Coronavirus?  We deny all allegations.  If anyone contracted the virus, it was.... consensual"   ????

Edited February 5, 2020 by SiSePuede419

[Guderian]

And, meanwhile, the UK also allows thousands of Chinese to enter the country without any checks.

 

It probably only needs a few countries with large international passenger movements, like the UK and Thailand, to act as they are doing and the rest of the world will suffer.

[geriatrickid]

16 hours ago, observer90210 said:

And meantime at the airport, it's to the Chinese. Totally irresponsabile attitude, considering the majority of nations who have banned all inbound and outbound flights to China.

I sympathize, but there is no "majority". At best a handful of countries.

 

 

5 minutes ago, Rod the Sod said:

Can someone help me with this one please? So the Coronavirus is easily spread just like flu. It kills the weaker, older pre-condition people, just like flu. There are many more people carrying a flu germ on planes from China than are carrying Coronavirus. It is estimated that flu kills up to 2,000 people A DAY world-wide. There are no restrictions on anyone traveling anywhere in the world with flu, but 20k cases and 400 deaths from CV and the world goes into lock-down. Borders are closed. People (Chinese) are sometimes banned from places to eat. Every newspaper and News Programme is wall-to-wall CV. It is predicted by some specialists that it will peak in a month or two and then settle down.

 

I travel around Bangkok where 80%+ of locals wear masks that have gaping holes at the side. Some experts say that these masks actually make matters worse.

 

The vast majority recover and go home with no lasting ill-effects (probably have a better immune system for the next round in fact).

 

I went for an XRay yesterday and the Specialist shook my hand warmly (no gloves) and the people waiting were split 50/50 wearing masks.

 

Given all of that, is this a massive over-reaction or is there much more too it than we read? Is something being hidden, and are the Chinese hiding something that is potentially catastrophic?

 

I am genuinely interested and happy to be corrected by those in the know.

 

Cheers RtS

The impact of the infection upon specific age groups is still unknown. This is due to the absence of data from China. What we have outside of China is inadequate to make any conclusion.

 

There is no factual basis with which to minimize the impact of 2019-nCoV by comparing it to seasonal flu. The impact of infection is significantly different. What we do know with the more deadly infectious diseases is that there is a greater likelihood to require more significant intervention, e.g. ICU care, respirators and  infection prevention protocols.  No country has the resources  to care for  thousands of patients requiring intensive care. It is impossible.  This is what  has happened in China. Thousands of people who may be ill are not being attended to. They in turn are infecting those around them.  This is one of the reasons why China imposed the quarantines. 

The number of people who become seriously ill from seasonal flu infections  is almost manageable. I use the term "almost", because every year, emergency rooms in  the EU, and North America become clogged with some very sick people during flu season.  Because of the severity of 2019-nCov, it is impossible to respond if the numbers become tens of thousands.  The goal of public health right now is to slow the spread, to buy time, in hopes that warmer weather  in China will help slow the spread and to have the time to develop a vaccine, and to erect barriers to slow the spread of infection.

 

 

[SiSePuede419]

1 minute ago, Guderian said:

And, meanwhile, the UK also allows thousands of Chinese to enter the country without any checks.

 

It probably only needs a few countries with large international passenger movements, like the UK and Thailand, to act as they are doing and the rest of the world will suffer.

Like it or not, China is the world's factory.  Hyundai has already announced plans to shut down a automobile factory in South Korea, because lack of parts supplied by China.  

 

Overreacting can cause a chain reaction global recession.  

 

Closing borders is a tightrope balancing act that we won't know is prudent or foolish, except in hindsight. ✓

[Tayaout]

52 minutes ago, Pravda said:

What does it mean Corona virus has traces of HIV?

 

HIV is impossible to cure because the virus hides in the body so it can not be detected by immune system. 

 

 

 

 

It means the same thing than the fact that human and dog share 84% of the same DNA. Human and chimp is 99%. 

Edited February 5, 2020 by Tayaout

[Jun2x]

With all these coronavirus news I'm totally freak out right now. I have (on and off) colds for the past 5-6 days now. No fever but I felt weak than normal. I have food allergies that sometimes caused me to sneeze or colds like effect though.

 

I went to Malaysia early December. Never went to Pattaya center area since end of December. Could be psychological thing only... ????

[allenberg]

15 hours ago, BRUFC said:

Sorry Mr Tayout, not wishing to deflect from your confident statement, but who else besides our Yinn, identifies as Thai on this forum?

And even that one is questionable in my opinion.

[SiSePuede419]

21 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

China declared 144 in 2018. Check it up. Now we have almost only Chinese data so let's compare orange with orange.

I did look it up.  You forgot to mention this:

 

"The US flu mortality rate includes cases where flu causes other illnesses to worsen and lead to death, while China only counts people who die directly from flu...

The statistical methods used by the Chinese CDC should be revised, as deaths from pneumonia caused by the flu, for example, are not counted"

 

If you have heart problems, you're more likely to have a fatal heart attack if you get the flu.  That's counted in America as a flu death but not in China.

 

Comparison of Chinese flu deaths with US flu deaths isn't equivalent.  Sorry. ????

Edited February 5, 2020 by SiSePuede419
Added difference in count between China and US

[mtls2005]

This tracking site may be helpful...

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Tayaout]

2 minutes ago, SiSePuede419 said:

Comparison of Chinese flu deaths with US flu deaths isn't equivalent.  Sorry. ????

Ask yourself why would they have only 144 deaths with over a billion population when every other countries has thousands and now look at the stats they are publishing about coronavirus. 

Edited February 5, 2020 by Tayaout

[Iron Tongue]

13 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Chinese might be hitting the limits of their diagnosis capabilities. When confirmed started going up at a rate of 2k+/day, the graph turned linear. Doesn't look like exponential growth, bit suspect.

According to BBC, Wuhan has run out of test kits so are no longer testing for, registering or reporting new cases of infection.  Those showing up at hospitals & diagnostic centers (usually a hotel) have been sent home.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51379088

[allenberg]

5 hours ago, elephant45 said:

I keep thinking about those dam fingerprint scanners. Would the allow me to me to wipe it off with alcohol and a paper towel before I use it?

Use it and then clean your hands with your alcohol and paper towel.

[SiSePuede419]

16 minutes ago, Iron Tongue said:

According to BBC, Wuhan has run out of test kits

There's no such thing as a Coronavirus "test kit".  The ONLY way to verify if a sick patient has the virus is PCR-DNA analysis of saliva or mucus.

 

It's a highly specialised machine that runs 24/7/365 doing hundreds if not thousands of DNA sequencing tests simultaneously.

 

No kit exists, sorry to burst your bubble. ????

[fhickson]

i have a feeling its go time now, and its spreading in thailand. this happens well before peolle start reporting into hospitals. unlikely it can be contained.

 

now is the time to be vigilant with handwashing.

 

the other day some egg roll vendor on main downtown corner handles food with bare hands then takes money with same hands. needs to be some sort of control on places like this or one person can infect hundreds in a single night.

[bkkcanuck8]

17 hours ago, observer90210 said:

And meantime at the airport, it's to the Chinese. Totally irresponsabile attitude, considering the majority of nations who have banned all inbound and outbound flights to China.

And yet the ports are still open...  The simple truth is that shutting down air traffic will only slow the spread but the dye is already cast... this is a pandemic and sooner or later (whether you delay it for a month or not) it will make it's way around the world... 4 months at most until you see it daily, 5 or 6 months at the best case delay.  To have a chance of stopping it you would have to close borders more like what North Korea does and closing borders to that extent would only collapse the supply chain and send the economies into a depression level contraction - the likes we have not seen in modern times.   Even then there is a rather large number of smuggling routes that don't exit through national ports but link up through small vessels or other freighters for illegal trade and human trafficking.  So even if you were to block it through primary entry it would go south or north then back in through other countries.  This is the nature of viral outbreaks.  With the doubling rate for the virus around 6.4 and the current confirmed cases (which likely make up at most 10% of cases)... the virus would mathematically infect 6.4 billion people in 4 months.  When it spreads that fast and that wide there are lots of avenues for it to follow and make it in. 

 

It has likely been in Thailand for more than a month, and in many western countries... cases will pop up over and over again until it the doubling effect will make it hard to pretend there was any chance of controlling it.  We just have to thank our luck that this is a rather mild version of it.

[NeoDinosaw]

12 hours ago, sirineou said:

Our primary concern is getting on a plane, and transfers at high risk locations, but a secondary concern is that  if things got bad, we might not be able to return to the US and even if we were we might have to be quarantined for 14 days. 

I share your concern. I'm an aging retired Brit booked to fly home mid-February. The greatest dangers seem to be getting to the airport : taxi drivers are a great risk in Thailand  - for lots of reasons; are gtrains safe ?), and oncd at the airport you are in the highest risk location full of potential carriers.  Should I stay here until it's all over ?  

[Traubert]

4 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

I sympathize, but there is no "majority". At best a handful of countries.

 

 

The impact of the infection upon specific age groups is still unknown. This is due to the absence of data from China. What we have outside of China is inadequate to make any conclusion.

 

There is no factual basis with which to minimize the impact of 2019-nCoV by comparing it to seasonal flu. The impact of infection is significantly different. What we do know with the more deadly infectious diseases is that there is a greater likelihood to require more significant intervention, e.g. ICU care, respirators and  infection prevention protocols.  No country has the resources  to care for  thousands of patients requiring intensive care. It is impossible.  This is what  has happened in China. Thousands of people who may be ill are not being attended to. They in turn are infecting those around them.  This is one of the reasons why China imposed the quarantines. 

The number of people who become seriously ill from seasonal flu infections  is almost manageable. I use the term "almost", because every year, emergency rooms in  the EU, and North America become clogged with some very sick people during flu season.  Because of the severity of 2019-nCov, it is impossible to respond if the numbers become tens of thousands.  The goal of public health right now is to slow the spread, to buy time, in hopes that warmer weather  in China will help slow the spread and to have the time to develop a vaccine, and to erect barriers to slow the spread of infection.

 

 

1:23 am Feb 5

The average age of patients died of novel coronavirus infection in epicenter Wuhan is 68, while average age of confirmed cases is younger in other places.

 

10:06 pm Feb 4

Huoshenshan hospital, a newly-built facility to treat coronavirus patients, has now received 45 patients, and will put 1000 beds into use in the next three to five days. 1400 medical staff will also work at the hospital: deputy director of the hospital

 

7:51 pm Feb 4

More efforts in combating coronavirus: 2,000 more medical staff sent to support Hubei to ensure patient treatment in epicenter: central government
 

 

 

https://www.globaltimes.cn//content/1177737.shtml

 

The reds under the bed crowd will no doubt pour scorn on this but it's at least a window into what's happening in China real time and bloody sight more reliable than media with an anti-China bias, plus they aren't selling clicks.

 

 

Edited February 5, 2020 by metisdead
Edited as per fair use policy.

[Damrongsak]

17 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Had to, Japan was claiming #1 behind China. Can't lose the hub position.

Hubeihub? 

[fhickson]

12 hours ago, sirineou said:

As I mentioned a few time , we were getting ready to return to our Thai home  this spring as we do every year. 

Are plans are on hold as we monitor the situation, Our primary concern is getting on a plane, and transfers at high risk locations, but a secondary concern is that  if things got bad, we might not be able to return to the US and even if we were we might have to be quarantined for 14 days. 

i would suggest waiting until things settle down. if there is a large spread to thailand you could be quickly placed on a quarantine list, even as a us citizen returning.

 

flying in from another country wont help you as the thai stamp would be in your passport.

[Isaan sailor]

Thailand has a bleak future, aligned with China.

[bkkcanuck8]

14 minutes ago, NeoDinosaw said:

I share your concern. I'm an aging retired Brit booked to fly home mid-February. The greatest dangers seem to be getting to the airport : taxi drivers are a great risk in Thailand  - for lots of reasons; are gtrains safe ?), and oncd at the airport you are in the highest risk location full of potential carriers.  Should I stay here until it's all over ?  

put a plastic bag over your head and rub yourself with alcoholic jelly disinfectant...  at least you won't die of the virus ????

[zydeco]

11 minutes ago, Traubert said:

https://www.globaltimes.cn//content/1177737.shtml

 

The reds under the bed crowd will no doubt pour scorn on this but it's at least a window into what's happening in China real time and bloody sight more reliable than media with an anti-China bias, plus they aren't selling clicks.

 

The Global Times (simplified Chinese: 环球时报; traditional Chinese: 環球時報; pinyin: Huánqiú Shíbào) is a daily tabloid newspaper under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party's People's Daily newspaper, commenting on international issues from a nationalistic perspective.

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Times

[thesetat2013]

1 hour ago, Rod the Sod said:

Can someone help me with this one please? So the Coronavirus is easily spread just like flu. It kills the weaker, older pre-condition people, just like flu. There are many more people carrying a flu germ on planes from China than are carrying Coronavirus. It is estimated that flu kills up to 2,000 people A DAY world-wide. There are no restrictions on anyone traveling anywhere in the world with flu, but 20k cases and 400 deaths from CV and the world goes into lock-down. Borders are closed. People (Chinese) are sometimes banned from places to eat. Every newspaper and News Programme is wall-to-wall CV. It is predicted by some specialists that it will peak in a month or two and then settle down.

 

I travel around Bangkok where 80%+ of locals wear masks that have gaping holes at the side. Some experts say that these masks actually make matters worse.

 

The vast majority recover and go home with no lasting ill-effects (probably have a better immune system for the next round in fact).

 

I went for an XRay yesterday and the Specialist shook my hand warmly (no gloves) and the people waiting were split 50/50 wearing masks.

 

Given all of that, is this a massive over-reaction or is there much more too it than we read? Is something being hidden, and are the Chinese hiding something that is potentially catastrophic?

 

I am genuinely interested and happy to be corrected by those in the know.

 

Cheers RtS

OK. Compare population of China to population of the world. Then multiply the current death rate in China as well as the critical condition rate be that number. If this infection acts like the flu and spreads worldwide and contaminates at that rate as well as the mortality rate. Then maybe you will see the grander picture of how deadly this virus could obtain and achieve. Downplayed the way. You are making it seem is both ignorant and irresponsible. 

[bkkcanuck8]

12 minutes ago, Traubert said:

The average age of patients died of novel coronavirus infection in epicenter Wuhan is 68, while average age of confirmed cases is younger in other places.

On the bright side, if all the old people die the government pension plans will be much more solvent worldwide... ????

[bkkcanuck8]

1 minute ago, thesetat2013 said:

OK. Compare population of China to population of the world. Then multiply the current death rate in China as well as the critical condition rate be that number. If this infection acts like the flu and spreads worldwide and contaminates at that rate as well as the mortality rate. Then maybe you will see the grander picture of how deadly this virus could obtain and achieve. Downplayed the way. You are making it seem is both ignorant and irresponsible. 

The current data that we have (which is all we have to work with) has a mortality rate (higher for elderly or those with existing conditions) of 2%.  Outside china 0.6%.   Spanish Flu 10%.  Trying to sow the seeds of mass hysteria at this point is also ignorant and irresponsible.   Be prepared, be concerned... well and if your an old codger be very afraid... but no panicking necessary at this point.  The virus will spread, we will have to deal with it... but there is nothing at this point to stop it from being a global pandemic... containment early on failed, and an annual vaccine is likely not going to show up until the worst is over.

[hotchilli]

16 hours ago, BRUFC said:

I must admit I hadn't considered the lack of reaction from that quarter. I wonder why the silence?

It's called sitting back & giving Prayut &Co enough rope to hang themselves.

No need to push.... they'll trip soon enough!