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German institute: Two years for pandemic to run its course


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German institute: Two years for pandemic to run its course

 

2020-03-17T214114Z_1_LYNXMPEG2G2MF_RTROPTP_4_HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-GERMANY.JPG

Empty chairs and tables are seen on a square during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Cologne, Germany, March 17, 2020. REUTERS/Thilo Schmuelgen

 

BERLIN (Reuters) - The coronavirus pandemic is likely to take about two years to run its course, the head of Germany's public health agency said on Tuesday, adding that much depended on the speed with which a vaccine against the virus was developed.

 

Lothar Wieler, president of the Robert Koch Institute, said that eventually some 60% to 70% of the global population would have been infected, recovered and acquired immunity, but it was impossible to say how fast that would happen.

 

"Our working assumption is that it will take about two years," he told a news conference on Tuesday, adding that the timing depended on how long it takes to get a vaccine developed and deployed.

 

"We do not yet know what the death rate will look like in the end," he told reporters.

 

The institute said the number of confirmed cases in Germany had risen by more than 1,100 to 7,156 with 13 deaths.

 

Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose government on Monday announced strict social distancing measures to slow the spread of the virus, urged Germans to avoid panicking about food and money shortages.

 

"I would like to urge the public to stick to the official statements instead of believing the many rumors that are unfortunately circulating around," Merkel said. "We are doing everything to inform (the public) in a transparent way. Such fears are baseless."

 

Wieler said that without the strict measures Germany could end up facing millions of coronavirus cases.

 

"We want to avoid that," he said, adding the institute was raising the risk level in Germany to "high." He said hospitals would have to at least double their intensive care capacity as one in five cases was serious.

 

(Reporting Thomas Escritt; Writing by Madeline Chambers and Joseph Nasr; Editing by Leslie Adler)

 

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-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-03-18
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The Spanish flu of 1918/19, thought to have originated in Kansas, came in three waves, with the mutated second wave being the most aggressive and deadly. 
 

if you are fit and healthy better to get it and join the herd. Older and at risk people need to severely alter their lifestyles for a couple of years, avoiding crowds, for example. 
 

A vaccine will be problematic if this thing mutates, although if you get it it’s likely any further contraction will be less severe. 

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9 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

2 years of lockdown sounds like hell, on the bright side at least it won't be cold and TVF will be busy ????

 

 

I have been in lock down for 4 year, can't say I'm not enjoying it, lots to do whilst at home.

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These Are the same people who said don't bother with masks. Now masks are not 100 per cent effective but not surprisingly they are effective. And the reason that this health agency and many others in Europe and North America came out with this sage piece of health advice was

. .... Wait for it ... 

 

That did not have enough masks for health workers who needed them. 

 

 

images.png

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2 hours ago, leeneeds said:

The double effect, coming to a place near you.

 

So is it best to catch it,  recover from it and be immune, the understanding of reoccurrence and to what extent its effect has on the immune system, has a long way to go, sadly many more deaths till we get to that point.

There are people who had been infected , cured , and reinfected . Immunity , if acquired , might only last a short time .

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2 hours ago, leeneeds said:

The double effect, coming to a place near you.

 

So is it best to catch it,  recover from it and be immune, the understanding of reoccurrence and to what extent its effect has on the immune system, has a long way to go, sadly many more deaths till we get to that point.

There is some evidence that suggest immunity only last about a year. 

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2 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Seems the best plan the top boffins have is

1. Catch it.

2. If you survive it, you are OK

except that there have been several cases where people have caught it twice after recovering from the first illness, this is going to be like the flu, no real immunity, like the flu, corona will mutate slightly every year making a vaccine less effective.

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2 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

except that there have been several cases where people have caught it twice after recovering from the first illness, this is going to be like the flu, no real immunity, like the flu, corona will mutate slightly every year making a vaccine less effective.

Until the chinese release a new one...

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