When will it all go back to 'normal'?

[mfd101]

China, Taiwan & Sth Korea are the 3 countries to watch, because out ahead of the rest of the world. They have lessons to teach us.

 

Taiwan seems to have arrested the virus at quite a low level. How did they manage this?

 

Sth Korea highly effective with disciplined populace and high level of testing (with compulsory isolation confined to those who test +ve). The question for Sth Korea is whether they are now seeing a 2nd bout ...

 

As for China, it has certainly flattened its curve with draconian methods that are hard to do in Western or incompetent countries ... Will that last?

[alex8912]

10 hours ago, Tayaout said:

My guess is 6-12 months. Expert say 18 months. 

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/18/politics/contingency-planning-18-months-coronavirus/index.html

Oh God. CNN is NOT an expert!!! Corona News Network. 

[saengd]

15 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

China, Taiwan & Sth Korea are the 3 countries to watch, because out ahead of the rest of the world. They have lessons to teach us.

 

Taiwan seems to have arrested the virus at quite a low level. How did they manage this?

 

Sth Korea highly effective with disciplined populace and high level of testing (with compulsory isolation confined to those who test +ve). The question for Sth Korea is whether they are now seeing a 2nd bout ...

 

As for China, it has certainly flattened its curve with draconian methods that are hard to do in Western or incompetent countries ... Will that last?

[Stevemercer]

The balance of advice seems to suggest 2 years which is about the time needed to develop, test and produce enough doses of a vaccine to inoculate those at most risk.

 

Current lock-downs will need to be in place for 3 months to be effective. 

 

Until a reliable and safe vaccine is widely available, the virus will just keep coming back in successive rounds. 

 

Of course, we can look forward to new Corona strains in the future.

 

 

 

[Bundooman]

Sorry, but this is a pointless post.

There are 7-8 billion people on this planet and I can assure you that not one of them has any idea how to answer your question.

All you can do is to plan forward as much as you can, update your plans regularly and keep yourself informed.

Its like asking the simple question, "how long is a piece of string?"

Take charge of yourself!

[Krataiboy]

9 hours ago, saengd said:

I'm guessing you don't believe in global warming,  you think the Baht is manipulated and that Central Banks are owned by the elite, am I right?

Only if you agree.

[saengd]

4 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

Only if you agree.

Genuinely confused!

[Krataiboy]

6 minutes ago, saengd said:

Genuinely confused!

Straw man/ad hominem arguers frequently are.

[saengd]

3 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

Straw man/ad hominem arguers frequently are.

Kettle, pot, ignore list.

[mfd101]

Today's Le Monde quotes figures from Johns Hopkins which subtract those recovered from those infected. The results are startling: China now has only around 15000 still infected (which leaves open the question of immunity/reinfection) while the rest of the world, including particularly Europe is still climbing swiftly, even when recoveries are subtracted..

 

Slowness of governments to react & take tough measures gets the blame.

[Traubert]

11 hours ago, saengd said:

All the lock downs I've seen reported seem to refer to only the next 30 days, whether or not they will be extended after that is anyone's guess, I suppose it would be too panicky if lock downs were designated for 6 months so I expect they may be continued beyond 30 days...dunno for sure.

 

If the experience in China is anything to go by the rate of infection slowed considerably after three months but that was a total lock down scenario, I think this is best case for the rest of us. I'm kinda hanging my hat on what happens in the UK because that's a more controlled environment with full disclosure, that is probably going to be the model to follow.

 

From what I can gather a medical solution may be up to a year away although I gather that some existing drugs show promise in treatment of the virus.

 

I've reconciled myself mentally to not much changing between now and August and I'm planning on that basis. If things do change, great, if they don't I shall replan in August. But sitting around looking for new data/information every day and listening to the conspiracy theories and pseudo facts on TVF and similar is not sensible, it'll do your head in. Best to perhaps set yourself a target date and get on with life and then revisit in a few months.

 

EDIT TO ADD: I might add that parts of China are starting to show a return to work, maybe that's premature, maybe that's ambitious, maybe that's enforced or maybe it's simply necessary.

There's a lot of use of the word lockdown which is superfluous because most of the western populations simply haven't got the discipline or self control that the Chinese have. 'I have to go out to the Mosque. Oh well if he can go to the Mosque, I can go to the bookies.' You just know the bookies will still be open., offering odds on something. That's just an example by the way.

 

There's 14 virus free provinces now in China and life is back to normal in all but Hubei. My own province has only one case still in hospital. It has been nine weeks all bar a couple of days from start to finish here and for those playing the blame game, dont waste your time. That wont help anybody and quite frankly it's trite.

 

It very much depends on the Governments and the people how long it takes to shake it off. Put short, it's up to you.

[saengd]

5 minutes ago, Traubert said:

There's a lot of use of the word lockdown which is superfluous because most of the western populations simply haven't got the discipline or self control that the Chinese have. 'I have to go out to the Mosque. Oh well if he can go to the Mosque, I can go to the bookies.' You just know the bookies will still be open., offering odds on something. That's just an example by the way.

 

There's 14 virus free provinces now in China and life is back to normal in all but Hubei. My own province has only one case still in hospital. It has been nine weeks all bar a couple of days from start to finish here and for those playing the blame game, dont waste your time. That wont help anybody and quite frankly it's trite.

 

It very much depends on the Governments and the people how long it takes to shake it off. Put short, it's up to you.

Agreed completely, the differentiation be will the extent to which governments can enforce that lock-down and the extent to which citizens will agree to adhere to them. 

[Traubert]

14 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

Today's Le Monde quotes figures from Johns Hopkins which subtract those recovered from those infected. The results are startling: China now has only around 15000 still infected (which leaves open the question of immunity/reinfection) while the rest of the world, including particularly Europe is still climbing swiftly, even when recoveries are subtracted..

 

Slowness of governments to react & take tough measures gets the blame.

China has 7464 current infections and 189 suspected new ones as of 17.05 today.

 

But hey, you can't trust them Commies. (shifts cigar, grabs musket)

[Traubert]

1 hour ago, Bundooman said:

Sorry, but this is a pointless post.

There are 7-8 billion people on this planet and I can assure you that not one of them has any idea how to answer your question.

All you can do is to plan forward as much as you can, update your plans regularly and keep yourself informed.

Its like asking the simple question, "how long is a piece of string?"

Take charge of yourself!

That is why self isolation wont work outside China, no common ground.

[CygnusX1]

2 hours ago, Chazar said:

but  will they change their eating habits and wet  markets  not  only in China but  other countries

Surely, finally, they will. After all this settles, trade in exotic animals for food will be seen as a crime equal to the worst terrorist atrocity. 

[allenberg]

11 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

False.

 

The US is offering free tests to every citizen. That is last weeks news.

And, UK citizens are some of the highest taxed in the world and pay a salary tax over their lifetime for NHS.  But, if a person never had a job I guess they can say it is free.

It is not free care as working people have/are paying for it.

 

+1

[3NUMBAS]

labs around the world are all working flat out on medications..a nebulizor of known approved ingrediants is likely to get there before a vaccine and the jap medications on anti flu are all set to go ..i reckon inside 6 months it will be brought down by medications

[natway09]

Until they realize that all international & provincial travel is stopped around the world no predictions. Chinese & Hong Kongers  still arriving,,,, crazy

With the Thai PM ignoring the 2 most specialized Doctors in the country you ask me about "normal" ????     Maybe never here

 

[balo]

Remember they managed to stop it in China within 60 days. 

 

Italy will probably take a lot longer, but other European countries are doing the right thing now so I expect to see less corona cases in April. 

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

On 3/18/2020 at 8:20 PM, ukrules said:

Imperial College released a 20 page report on this - this report is why the governments of the world acted immediately and started lockdowns based on its content

 

There are two links.

 

The first link is a summary of the report - it's not from the usual twitter rubbish - it's a well written summary full of relevant information from the longer report reformatted using the threadreader app :

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html

 

The second link is the original report from Imperial College which is much more lengthy and detailed - the above summary is much more suitable for most of us - me included

 

Full report : https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

 

A little note : This will happen in stages according to the report, lockdowns followed by periods where the virus spreads again followed by lockdowns until vaccines are produced and everyone is innoculated.

 

It will likely drag on for years apparently.

 

This is the full text of the summary :

 

all this atricle is pure rubbish, but it is propably the one that WHO used to scare 

governments around the world.

what are governments? a bunch of politicians who are very good maybe in politics,

but are not expert in pandemics and viruses.

the world's economy is acctually collapsing now, because of those idiots.

so who the heck am i to call them idiots?

i am just someone who watch youtube and saw the case of taiwan - how taiwan

won over the virus before it even started !!

to begin with, they identified it even before the china mainland crooks, and

to continue, they did not belive any word and number coming out of the CCP

mouths.

than they just did what they did during the SARS outbreak - they have the experience - they

did it in a nice and friedly way, and they are allmost corona free !! A M A Z I N G 

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

11 hours ago, natway09 said:

Until they realize that all international & provincial travel is stopped around the world no predictions. Chinese & Hong Kongers  still arriving,,,, crazy

With the Thai PM ignoring the 2 most specialized Doctors in the country you ask me about "normal" ????     Maybe never here

 

that's because it is very hard to decide on stopping all travel.

it acctually means death for many businesses , that will fall and never come back.

i still think that many more will die from this panick policies, than from the virus itself.

[JimHuaHin]

And what are the winning lottery numbers next week?

 

Look at China - first COVID-19 case 16-18 weeks ago.  After strict lockdown, now few if any new cases in Hubei.  But, now China worried about importing new case as Chinese return from OS, etc.  COVID-19 has yet to peak in South Korea and Japan, or has it?  Europe has basically just started; north America is in early days, as is the Middle East.  Africa and South-Central America, just started.

 

If there is a global ban on international travel for 3-4 months, then may all over in 12 months.

 

If not, you could be looking at 18-24 months, depending on what control methods are enforced internationally, whether an effectice vaccine is deployed to immunise the global population, and COVID-19 does not mutate.

 

And next week's winning numbers are ......

 

It is all in the hands of the gods.

 

 

[5633572526]

On 3/19/2020 at 5:45 AM, Curt1591 said:

Unfortunately, I have read "experts" that have stated anything from the entire thing being a hoax, to it taking a couple years to level out.

Those who are saying it’s a hoax are not experts 

[Rimmer]

Substantiated conspiracy troll post removed

[edwinchester]

A doctor friend in our local Thai Govt Hospital reckons on 6 months before it is back to near normal.

[rabang]

1 hour ago, edwinchester said:

A doctor friend in our local Thai Govt Hospital reckons on 6 months before it is back to near normal.

I would say so too. 3 months with first a rising trend before slowly going down. Then another 3 months for things to normalize and restrictions being lifted. But it is just a guess. Yours is as good as mine.

[drbeach]

On 3/19/2020 at 5:45 AM, Curt1591 said:

Unfortunately, I have read "experts" that have stated anything from the entire thing being a hoax, to it taking a couple years to level out.

Well, Bill Gates said the other day borders will re-open in '6 to 10 weeks' depending on how well the containment measures go. I'm not sure he can be called an 'expert' though, given he lacks a medical degree, but he is a member of the elite so if he says a few weeks I believe him on that. https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-coronavirus-shut-downs-done-well-last-6-10-weeks-2020-3

[drbeach]

To the OP, you're a permanent resident. Why would you ever need to leave? I know an expat who hasn't left Thailand in 15 years, despite living in a border town.

 

However, I reckon by August there should be no problem traveling by road to neighboring countries. In fact, the current closures are for 2-4 weeks, with Malaysia set to re-open April 1, unless they call for an extension of the closure.

[scorecard]

57 minutes ago, drbeach said:

Well, Bill Gates said the other day borders will re-open in '6 to 10 weeks' depending on how well the containment measures go. I'm not sure he can be called an 'expert' though, given he lacks a medical degree, but he is a member of the elite so if he says a few weeks I believe him on that. https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-coronavirus-shut-downs-done-well-last-6-10-weeks-2020-3

I would expect that Bill Gates would always be keeping himself well informed about everything and wouldn't make such statements without some rationale.

 

Let's hope his forecast is true.  

[jayboy]

On 3/19/2020 at 4:40 AM, scorecard said:

I have Thai PR and I'm now concerned about being able to renew my exit/re-entry stamps, and get a renewal of the 5 year entry in my red police book which is needed in August 2020.

Scorecard, I don't really understand your problem on the Thai side.The exit/re-entry stamps can be obtained anytime you like from CW and I believe the endorsement in the red book can be done a month or so before the August due date.Maybe I have misunderstood your concern.

 

On your broader point my educated guess is that we will only be able to travel "relatively" freely by Spring 2021.I would love to be proved wrong.