Fear Vs Reality (Covid-19)

[WineOh]

How much of what we are seeing outside is based on fear or reality? The reality of the situation is that people are dying everyday, no question. But don't people die everyday anyway? This is the first real pandemic we have suffered since the global implementation of social media, so this must be having an effect on our actions. We had H1N1 back in 2009 (which killed between 150,000 and 500,000 people, with over 1.5 million confirmed cases) but back then social media was largely confined to students and the youth who couldn't give a rats a**e whether they got it or not. Nowadays everyone is connected and programmed into the fear factory, so is this affecting our better judgement as human beings? Are we letting the fear win?

 

Covid-19 is a killer. It kills those who are less able to fight it off, that is the reality. 

But we must keep everything in perspective, otherwise the fear will destroy us even more than the virus itself.

I totally agree with social distancing and self isolation, as I believe this is the fastest way to get a pandemic such as this under control, but my worry is that it's going to come back again and the people will act irrationally out of fear and lose all sight of reason.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Liverpoolfan

[Nyezhov]

Its a serious disease that is no more serious than any other of its ilk (flu) that spreads in densely populated areas and kills off the old, every year.

 

But it is also a political excersize, especially in the USA and its relations with China that folks can see unfolding about them. Thats where the fear and angst and hype come from.

 

In essense, its the first shot in a new Cold War. China fired up.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Nyezhov

[transam]

This virus is a little different, in that you only need the slightest contact with it to go down, hence the pandemic... 

[WineOh]

I think what is really hammering the fear home is the isolated cases of young and otherwise fit people catching it and dying.

It seems they are a very small minority but it's killing them nonetheless. 

This is what makes this virus so uncertain.

 

Two of my family members back in the UK have now been diagnosed with it.

Both said it's like pneumonia.

One has it worse than the other but both are now on the road to recovery.

 

It seems you never know how it will affect you until you get it.

That's the scary bit.

[CharlieH]

Post with Generalized flame has been removed along with responses to it.

[Pravda]

On my trip to Japan in 2011 I got sick like a dog. I had a coughing fit and fever for almost 3 months.

 

I went to see a doctor in Canada and they just sent me home.

 

Since then I was never able to breathe normally.

 

I suspect the same will be with this virus for some who get it.

 

To this day I wonder what I got back then.

[CharlieH]

500+ deaths in a single day in the UK, that sounds alot more serious than "the flu" to me.

The speed from infection to death in some cases is truly scary.

[WineOh]

2 minutes ago, Pravda said:

On my trip to Japan in 2011 I got sick like a dog. I had a coughing fit and fever for almost 3 months.

I got something very similar in Vietnam in 2010.

Coughing constantly on my return to the UK. Lasted about 2 months.

It started in Saigon, we were staying at cheap motels so i thought it was down to the air con or something.

But it just wouldn't let up.

 

Must have been something quite serious. 

[Kinnock]

22 minutes ago, transam said:

Total rubbish..........A 13 year old boy in the UK, who had no probs, just died....Few days back a 21 year old girl.....

There are the odd, sad cases of young people dying from flu and other viruses every year.  They just don't get reported.

 

When people are saying 40,000, 50,000 or 200,000 deaths globally are a sign of how bad this virus is ..... what's their basis for saying this?  Do they track death's from other diseases each year?

 

How about the 20,000 to 25,000 excess deaths each winter in the UK alone every year?  The 500,000 deaths globally from flu each year?  The 1.5 million deaths from TB - a disease tgat's had a vaccine since 1921.  Or the 450,000 deaths of under 5 year olds from malaria. (All WHO and CDC stats)

 

Most people have no idea what the stats on COVID-19 reported every minute really mean.

 

And the overloaded hospitals .... happened in Italy during Swine flu too, but the media and the panicking politicians have stoked up such a climate of fear, everyone with a cold or flu is running to the nearest hospital, and the resulting panic hampers the efforts to treat the elderly who are really sick.

 

The impact on people's livelihoods will probably increase the 800,000+ suicides each year by more than the number of deaths of old, sick people from COVID-19.

 

But looking at the crop of world leaders we have in 2020, are we surprised it's been so badly managed?

 

"... we have nothing to fear, but fear itself"

Edited April 2, 2020 by Kinnock

[cornishcarlos]

18 minutes ago, CharlieH said:

500+ deaths in a single day in the UK, that sounds alot more serious than "the flu" to me.

 

I just picked a random year to google, flu deaths in U.K....

 

"The data from the ONS showed a rise of 28,189 deaths in 2015 (5.6%), from 501,424 in 2014 to 529,613 in 2015. This is the highest number since 2003, when there were 539,151 deaths. The percentage increase in 2015 is the largest year-on-year rise since 1967 to 1968 (6.3%)."

 

Source https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/07/number-deaths-england-wales-12-year-high-life-expectancy

 

529,613 people died in the U.K from that year.....

 

Aside from the rapid spread, I think it's all being blown out of proportion and lock downs are doing more harm than good... Just my opinion

[WineOh]

1 minute ago, cornishcarlos said:

529,613 people died in the U.K from that year.....

was that figure just from the flu mate?

[parafareno]

in Italy they say there is a 10 % mortality rate of who gets it....meaning who goes to hospital and gets tested cause he has symptoms...so that is really high....

Taiwan seems to be the smartest country.....by closing the borders with China and now people live with almost no restrictions.......

it is scary thing.....if it will come back each year, even those who got over it last year can get reinfected......i have a suspision diseases like this will be coming and coming in the future......it is also possible it was artificially made in the lab.........i watched some documentary like 2 years ago, where there are open labs where regular people can mix all kind of ingredients together with no supervision and that scared me back then....how do we know this stuff really came from animals in Wuhan being placed in cages one on top of another.....this disease is really scarry.....

[cornishcarlos]

1 minute ago, Liverpoolfan said:

was that figure just from the flu mate?

 

No... That was just showing that they had an extra 28,000+ deaths that year, attributed to a less than effective flu vaccine...

 

But 500,000 + die each year in U.K and a good % of them are flu related deaths !!!

[Kinnock]

[parafareno]

for example here is the stats for usa flue deaths....  https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

50000 per year, for Corona they predict 1 or 2 million if they dont curb it....if they do then the prediction is around 100000 - 200000 deaths per year, so that is like twice as flu if they mitigate it....

[clarky cat]

the death rate is still low in comparison to other causes (UK)

 

[Kinnock]

So we wreck the global economy trying to stop COVID-19, now what's left in the tank to tackle COVID-20 or 21?

 

May be a tad more efficient for some people to stop eating the wildlife?

[sanuk711]

Bees:     "why are all the humans disappearing?"..................

[Logosone]

14 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

So we wreck the global economy trying to stop COVID-19, now what's left in the tank to tackle COVID-20 or 21?

 

May be a tad more efficient for some people to stop eating the wildlife?

The global economy will not be wrecked.

 

Trading legend and multi-billion pound fund manager Paul Tudor has given an interview:

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/man-who-called-1987-crash-says-be-careful-not-to-mythologize-coronavirus-into-a-pandemic-godzilla-predicts-stocks-will-rebound-in-a-few-months-2020-03-26

 

There will be a massive share rally that will make good all the losses. However, the bottom may well not be reached yet.

 

But a bottom will come. And then the mother of all rallies will take shares back up to where they were.

 

Paul Tudor also compares Covid19 to the flu and does not consider Covid19 as big a threat. He says America will defeat the virus.

 

When they do we will see an economic rally the likes of which has not been seen.

 

So those of us who live by finance will be fine. It will be the small service providers who lost their jobs, the small businesses who will close and never return which will be lost forever. All because of government overreaction and handing policy to "experts". Lack of leadership, especially in the UK.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Logosone

[Saltire]

Not sure if I buy all this but it at least is a balanced approach and backs up what the OP is saying (I think!)

 

https://news.sky.com/video/share-11964813?fbclid=IwAR3rSdM1GE8wINf3ztQraEjJxDVvksqB6C2_-ltQ6X9rRYttPsHUEbsPYqE

 

I also agree that social media is now a bit of a pandemic of its own. Huge influence, both positive and negative. Look how easy it was used to manipulate USA and UK elections.

[canthai55]

35 minutes ago, parafareno said:

in Italy they say there is a 10 % mortality rate of who gets it....meaning who goes to hospital and gets tested cause he has symptoms...so that is really high....

According to an Italian Government Study 99% of their Covid-19 fatalities were already sick and half were diagnosed with 3 or more diseases.

Here are some excerpts from a Bloomberg article on the study:

“The median age of the infected is 63 but most of those who die are older. The average age of those who’ve died from the virus in Italy is 79.5. As of March 17, 17 people under 50 had died from the disease. All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions.”

“According to the GIMBE Foundation, about 100,000 Italians have contracted the virus, daily Il Sole 24 Ore reported. That would bring back the country’s death rate closer to the global average of about 2%.”

http://thesaker.is/covid-19-derangement-syndrome-a-world-gone-mad/

[WineOh]

2 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The global economy will not be wrecked.

it's kind of on it's a**e already mate.

[cornishcarlos]

The fact is, humans die... 

Even the under achievers in life will at least achieve that.

 

Let the healthy get back to work.. Test them and lets crack on !!!

[Logosone]

10 minutes ago, Liverpoolfan said:

it's kind of on it's a**e already mate.

Due to government overreactions, particularly in the UK, but elsewhere as well, yes we have seen indices fall.

 

However, these things have happened before. Paul Tudor, a trading legend, is confident that even though things may still get worse and bottom has perhaps not been reached yet, eventually the bottom will come.

 

When it does markets will rally again.

 

This pandemic may cost 2-4 Trillion USD, however, the debt was already in the hundreds of trillion range.

 

This will not cause the end of the world economy by any means.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/man-who-called-1987-crash-says-be-careful-not-to-mythologize-coronavirus-into-a-pandemic-godzilla-predicts-stocks-will-rebound-in-a-few-months-2020-03-26

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Logosone

[WineOh]

4 minutes ago, Logosone said:

This will not cause the end of the world economy by any means.

Black Tuesday was not the end of the world economy either but it had a knock on effect that drastically altered every aspect of life.

Whether or not Covid-19 will have similar outcomes remains to be seen. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Liverpoolfan

[Henryford]

I am waiting to see TOTAL mortality figures for 2020. Are the extra 42,000 claimed Corona deaths on top of a normal year are just part of a normal year. Out of total annual world deaths of 56 million it seems a drop in the ocean. Even if world deaths this year are 56.04 million is it worth destroying the economy of every nation.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Henryford

[WineOh]

Just now, pdtokyo said:

aren't we allowed to say "<deleted>" ?

 

No mate.

[Nyezhov]

21 minutes ago, Logosone said:

But a bottom will come. And then the mother of all rallies will take shares back up to where they were.

The mood of folks I talk to in the US is upbeat, yet p'od. We are just waiting the word that its time to go back to work and then China, watch out. The machine has been started and its going to be pedal to the metal.

 

China doent need to be defeated with bullets. Dollars will do. Their days of possible economic dominance are over. All you little countries? Choose wisely and you will get a factory too.

[Logosone]

14 minutes ago, Liverpoolfan said:

Black Tuesday was not the end of the world economy either but it had a knock on effect that drastically altered every aspect of life.

Whether or not Covid-19 will have similar outcomes remains to be seen. 

Things became many times better, indices went many times higher, than they were before Black Tuesday.

 

That's even assuming Covid19 and the reckless and incompetent government overreactions could have an impact like the Great Depression, which seems very unlikely. 

 

The Great Depression lasted for almost ten years.

 

Paul Tudor is saying that within months the markets will rally:

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/man-who-called-1987-crash-says-be-careful-not-to-mythologize-coronavirus-into-a-pandemic-godzilla-predicts-stocks-will-rebound-in-a-few-months-2020-03-26

 

This is the man that correctly predicted the 1987 crash.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Logosone

[giddyup]

1 hour ago, Liverpoolfan said:

I got something very similar in Vietnam in 2010.

Coughing constantly on my return to the UK. Lasted about 2 months.

It started in Saigon, we were staying at cheap motels so i thought it was down to the air con or something.

But it just wouldn't let up.

 

Must have been something quite serious. 

Legionaires disease?