Why is Thailand not reopening?

[Enoon]

2 hours ago, Donga said:

People need to differentiate between case numbers and death numbers. Case numbers would be understated as they are in many countries where testing has not been widespread and processed differ. 

But I believe Thai death numbers are much more accurate and very very impressive. 
 

The border controls, masks, hand gel and temp checks everywhere, distancing discipline as well as heat & humidity advantage have done wonders. Amongst the lowest deaths per million at less than 1 compared to the Euros 120 -320. You can’t ignore this data. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

As long as you're happy, that's all that matters.

 

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by Enoon

[CharlieH]

Trolling comments/response removed.

[Matzzon]

25 minutes ago, EricTh said:

They should open up for internal travel in Thailand because the numbers are so low. 

 

Only those hotspot provinces like southernmost Thailand (Patani, Yala), Phuket and Greater Bangkok should be lockdown further. 

 

They should open the rest of the provinces for normal activities with this low number of newly infected cases.

Excuse me, but I would like to think that they are more capable to decide if they "should" open or not.

[RickG16]

3 hours ago, donnacha said:

They are keeping their heads down because they know that the official figures are complete nonsense. They intend to open up at the same time as the countries that supply most of their tourists. In the meantime, they are hoping the massive hidden outbreak will burn itself out before anyone notices the unusually high number of people dying from "pneumonia" this year.
 

 

Could be a sound analysis. Is that your own assessment or are you getting your information from somewhere?

[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I just showed two official statistics.

How do you know if they are facts or not?

And how do you know that lots of other statistics from around the world are correct?

If we see lots of body bags and mass graves that's a pretty clear sign that there are lots of dead people.

If we see overcrowded hospitals that's a clear sign that many people are sick.

Where are the pictures with the overcrowded hospitals and the body bags from Thailand? Or are they all censored?

I find it always amazing how many "experts" here seem to know what is going on - and obviously without any evidence.

Yes, it seems hard for people to understand. The "facts" presented is what we have. We just have to chose if we will believe them or not.

It doesn´t really matter how many infections there would be by testing more people. It´s the death toll that is the important. I have hard to believe that they would be able to fake that, when there is family and related persons involved as well as friends knowing why they are in hospital or why they die.

[WalkingOrders]

You make good points, but in all honesty I expect them to open, internally at least, very soon.

 

Open to foreign travelers I think will require some international coordination.

[Brunolem]

54 minutes ago, EricTh said:

Opening to other countries or opening for internal travel?

 

They should open up for internal travel in Thailand because the numbers are so low. 

 

Only those hotspot provinces like southernmost Thailand (Patani, Yala), Phuket and Greater Bangkok should be lockdown further. 

 

They should open the rest of the provinces for normal activities with this low number of newly infected cases.

 

 

 

Exactly! 

[Brunolem]

58 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Slowly, after Songkran. 

Necessary thing be open, not pubs, plaza, restaurant etc. still wear mask, wash hand, no party Etc

Up to local governor. Sensible.

But if you don't open shops, restaurants and pubs, what exactly do you open, since everything else (factories, constructions, banks...) has remained open? 

 

The millions of missing jobs are in these small businesses that require some human contact, even from a reasonable distance. 

 

The major infection clusters developed in places where people were packed, such as stadiums/arenas or places of worship, not in open air restaurants, bars, or shoe shops. 

Edited April 14, 2020 by Brunolem

[chessman]

5 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

But if you don't open shops, restaurants and pubs, what exactly do you open, since everything else (factories, constructions, banks...) has remained open? 

 

The millions of missing jobs are in these small businesses that require some human contact, even from a reasonable distance. 

 

The major infection clusters developed in places where people were packed, such as a stadium/arena or a religious building, not in open air restaurants, bars, or shoe shops. 

You can take sensible measures. Restaurants and restaurant/bars can open but only table service. Make sure the tables are spread out. Should have hand sanitizer. Difficult to enforce but not impossible. In a way it might enforce itself, restaurants will become more popular if they are taking precautions to keep their customers safe.

[Justgrazing]

2 hours ago, donnacha said:

It is all about timing.

They did not want to acknowledge the problem at all until a significant number of other countries were struggling with outbreaks too. As the most popular destination, by far, for tourists from Wuhan, to have admitted to a big outbreak in February would have been embarrassing to China, which was trying to underplay the seriousness of the problem and persuade countries to not close their borders to Chinese travelers.

Don't forget China's original claim that there was no human-to-human transmissibility, a brutally self-serving lie that has cost the world dearly. It is no coincidence that the regimes of the countries most dependent on Chinese patronage - Thailand and Cambodia - were the most blasé about the problem.

We know that Thailand made it almost impossible to get a test. We know that until late in March you could not get one at all unless you had a travel history that ruled out the possibility that you picked it up in Thailand. I mean, how much more obvious could they have made it that they did not want to hear about anything suggesting an ongoing outbreak?

We know that they deployed a ridiculous testing protocol that could only reduce the number of positive results, but then changed that once word got out. Magically, that was when the number of cases began to rise, and every day the focus was then put on the cases that had flown in from Europe, not China, not community transmission within Thailand itself.

Now the time is fine to admit to a small crisis. Smaller than Malaysia, smaller than the Philippines, smaller than Indonesia, and magically later than everyone else. Everything that happened before April can now be swept under the carpet, and the junta will use their "success" to further legitimize their ongoing systematic destruction of the democratic opposition.

 

+1???? .. 

[chessman]

43 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

It´s the death toll that is the important. I have hard to believe that they would be able to fake that, when there is family and related persons involved as well as friends knowing why they are in hospital or why they die.

There is evidence that death tolls when there are viruses are often under-reported. During the Swine flu epidemic in the US the death toll reported at the time was much less than the final total after analysis. In Italy currently the overall number of people dying is much more than the number of people who died in 2019 + the reported Covid 19 deaths. I read in Jakarta that the overall number of deaths recently has been 40% higher than previous years.

 

I think you are right to be skeptical about conspiracy theories that claim deaths are being covered up. If Hospitals were lying about deaths it would be leaked to the news Media. But if people die at home or in care homes, often they would not be tested and thus would not be included in the official statistics.

[Brunolem]

13 minutes ago, chessman said:

You can take sensible measures. Restaurants and restaurant/bars can open but only table service. Make sure the tables are spread out. Should have hand sanitizer. Difficult to enforce but not impossible. In a way it might enforce itself, restaurants will become more popular if they are taking precautions to keep their customers safe.

That's more like it. 

 

Opening restaurants (and swimming pools) would also allow hotels to reopen. 

 

Like after the former crisis, notably around 2008-2011, Thailand will have to rely on local tourism...this time for probably much longer... and reopening hotels in safe destinations (not Phuket) will help many Thais to go back to their former jobs. 

[Brunolem]

4 minutes ago, chessman said:

There is evidence that death tolls when there are viruses are often under-reported. During the Swine flu epidemic in the US the death toll reported at the time was much less than the final total after analysis. In Italy currently the overall number of people dying is much more than the number of people who died in 2019 + the reported Covid 19 deaths. I read in Jakarta that the overall number of deaths recently has been 40% higher than previous years.

 

I think you are right to be skeptical about conspiracy theories that claim deaths are being covered up. If Hospitals were lying about deaths it would be leaked to the news Media. But if people die at home or in care homes, often they would not be tested and thus would not be included in the official statistics.

Considering the large number of TV forum members, covering most of the Thai provinces, it would be interesting to organize a survey, asking if they have noticed an increase of funerals in their area. 

 

Personally, I haven't... if anything, it is quieter than usual... no firecrackers at 3 PM for a long time... 

[johng]

1 minute ago, Brunolem said:

if they have noticed an increase of funerals in their area.

Not noticed any increase myself...but do try to stay away from them as much as possible ????

[1FinickyOne]

5 hours ago, Brunolem said:

So why is Thailand going the other way, pushing for more restrictions and more delays?

 

Many believe that the Thai covid 19 numbers are not true.

 

The problem is that it makes little sense.

you know, if Thailand relaxed restrictions sooner, you would say something negative about how they don't care for their people... 

 

I think simply the problem you have is that it never makes sense to you... 

[Brunolem]

13 minutes ago, kenk24 said:

you know, if Thailand relaxed restrictions sooner, you would say something negative about how they don't care for their people... 

 

I think simply the problem you have is that it never makes sense to you... 

Ad hominem + 1

 

Why don't you try to discredit the message rather than the messenger? 

[1FinickyOne]

14 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Ad hominem + 1

 

Why don't you try to discredit the message rather than the messenger? 

thought I did both... and they are pretty connected... when so much of your stuff is negative it is difficult to think of anything you say as being accurate or positive.. 

[Mattd]

2 hours ago, Yinn said:

Tourism, retail, restaurant, pub = 10 million

K. Yinn, that represents over 25% of the working population of Thailand, which is substantial, some will be able to return to work once things open up again, others will not, it is hard to estimate how many businesses in this sector will be in a position to reopen.

 

2 hours ago, Yinn said:

Factorys schools closed for songkran. They not close the factory before that.

This is not quite true, I work in a relatively large industrial estate on the Eastern Seaboard and several factories were closed down prior to Songkran, a lot of these support the car industry, so have been badly affected.

The company I work for is finding it extremely difficult to operate, the restrictions imposed are making our operations almost impossible to carry on, we provide critical support to the oil and gas industry here and cannot provide the services we normally can, this can only go on for a certain length of time before it  in turn starts to have a major impact on the industry, which will have knock on effects to other sectors and the revenue streams for the Government.

Please do not underestimate the real issues that your country will face if this lock down continues for any prolonged length of time.

[Brunolem]

14 minutes ago, kenk24 said:

thought I did both... and they are pretty connected... when so much of your stuff is negative it is difficult to think of anything you say as being accurate or positive.. 

What is so negative in asking a question about reopening the country?

 

Unless you wish to keep things as they are, and don't want to hear about going back to some normalcy...

 

Finally, it is not because someone writes in negative tones that what he writes is inaccurate...there are unfortunately much more negative than positive aspects in today's world, especially these days...

[rumak]

3 hours ago, Guderian said:

As somebody quipped, it will be no country for old men.

Or maybe.... "there IS no country for old men" .    Of course that means 90 percent of us.

Picture us as being in a herd of antelope,  trying to keep up .  Sort of like inflation, rising and

rising medical costs,  no interest on savings.   

The tigers are stalking us,  picking us off as the ones who can't keep up .   

Do you want to know what QE really stands for ?   Quick and Easy ...

No countries for old men ,  though some of us remain diehards

[rumak]

3 hours ago, Yinn said:

Factorys schools closed for songkran. They not close the factory before that.

 

Factory more money than tourism. Farm more than tourism. 

factory, farm not close.

 

Close tourism because

a) no tourist come anyway

b) tourism is big spreader. Good idea.

 

close plaza, restaurants same reason b.

Lockdown social, night curfew, travel for songkran.

Not lockdown go to work.

Foreign worker can still work, but not leave workplace.

 

Think you live tourism area= You think everything close down. Is not true. 

 

Farm, factory, construction, bank, finance etc NOT close. (Only because songkran)

 

 

 

 

 

I always feel soooo much better when I get the facts from our own POTY.  

 

 

[brewsterbudgen]

Seeing as really the "lockdown" is a "lockdown lite" (apart from the seemingly unique curfew and annoying alcohol ban) I think it's really aimed at suppressing Songkran celebrations.  I would think from the end of this month it will be substantially relaxed.  Hope so, anyway.

[Yinn]

1 hour ago, Mattd said:

 

 

This is not quite true, I work in a relatively large industrial estate on the Eastern Seaboard and several factories were closed down prior to Songkran, a lot of these support the car industry, so have been badly affected.

Government not make them close right? 

 

 

1 hour ago, Mattd said:

The company I work for is finding it extremely difficult to operate, the restrictions imposed are making our operations almost impossible to carry on, we provide critical support to the oil and gas industry here and cannot provide the services we normally can, this can only go on for a certain length of time before it  in turn starts to have a major impact on the industry, which will have knock on effects to other sectors and the revenue streams for the Government.

Please do not underestimate the real issues that your country will face if this lock down continues for any prolonged length of time.

I know is terrible. Many ways. So many.

But not same the OP imagine. 

Thankyou share your real story. 

Most people I know, still work. But will be big problem soon. The governor every province decide how to do his province. 

 

If they allow songkran will be increase. After songkran will start open, step by step IF covid reduce.

 

I know in Ranong and Phangnga, if not have covid (now only two people in Ko Yao (island Phangnga) have) the plan to allow more business open, with rule, but still not allow people travel much after songkran holiday.

 

step by step. slowly  No tourism until covid finish 100%.

 

I think every province the governor make decision the best rule. Every situation different. Area with many covid positive will have pressure from Prayut government and other province. eg Phuket, will have more rule

 

All the poo yai baan now responsibly control their area, and report to province governor.  Every area different. 

Good way IMO, balance safety and economy. 

 

Hope it work. Difficult situation. Solution is different for different place, business etc.

Not one answer. Must work together. Good behavior.

[1FinickyOne]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

there are unfortunately much more negative than positive aspects in today's world, especially these days...

yes, it is quite apparent from your posts that you think this way.

[AussieBob18]

6 hours ago, luckyluke said:

Some even pretend that education is the same.

Never understood/understand why the right wing didn't/don't do nothing about this.

They give the impression of being powerless and, excepting whining about it, just accepting it.

Too busy working or running a business?  We are called the silent majority, because we dont have the spare time that lefties have to form social groups - so we complain online when we get the time.  

[AussieBob18]

6 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I just showed two official statistics.

How do you know if they are facts or not?

And how do you know that lots of other statistics from around the world are correct?

If we see lots of body bags and mass graves that's a pretty clear sign that there are lots of dead people.

If we see overcrowded hospitals that's a clear sign that many people are sick.

Where are the pictures with the overcrowded hospitals and the body bags from Thailand? Or are they all censored?

I find it always amazing how many "experts" here seem to know what is going on - and obviously without any evidence.

I have no idea what you are talking about mate - to me it is about as much sense as a dollar note. But I think maybe that you are saying that you and I know nothing - but then you say when you have an opinion on something it is more valid than mine or other people who have a different opinion?  Is that right?

And in answer - lots of people in Thailand die at home. One blokes wrote about how 3 people he knows of went to the hospital and were given pills and told to go home - and they did and they died. Probably lots of others too. 

[KhaoNiaw]

2 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Seeing as really the "lockdown" is a "lockdown lite" (apart from the seemingly unique curfew and annoying alcohol ban) I think it's really aimed at suppressing Songkran celebrations.  I would think from the end of this month it will be substantially relaxed.  Hope so, anyway.

It actually kind of makes sense for this week. Especially after the great migration a couple of weeks ago doesn't seem to have spread a mass out break to the provinces. Keeping people where they are for now seems like a good tactic that should start to see a pay off in a couple more weeks internally. It'll be longer before borders open up though. 

Edited April 14, 2020 by KhaoNiaw

[OneMoreFarang]

13 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

But I think maybe that you are saying that you and I know nothing - but then you say when you have an opinion on something it is more valid than mine or other people who have a different opinion?  Is that right?

Yes, we both can read the official numbers and we both might think they are not correct.

And that's, IMHO, is as far as it gets.

Does anybody have more accurate numbers or even an idea if the numbers should be double or 10 time or 100 times as much? I have my doubt.

And because I don't know I don't pretend that I know. I just say: I don't know.

And if anybody thinks they know then I ask those people: How do you know? And what are the actual numbers?

[AussieBob18]

6 hours ago, HashBrownHarry said:

You're comparing apples to oranges, lung cancer is not contagious.

OK then how about Tuberculosis?  WHO states that 1.5 million die annually from TB - some sources say it is actually 1.8 million. But even at 1.5 million, that is 125,000 per month. That is 28,846 per week. That is 4,120 per day.  But here is the BIGGY - TB has been killing people for a long time.   Over the last decade TB has killed at least 15 million people - probably a lot more.

 

So please tell me - where has  the panic been?  Why has the world been shut down for something that has killed 100K people, when there are worse things out there that have not caused such a massive over-reaction.  I will answer that.  Because they got the numbers totally wrong and they panicked. 

 

You think that TB is not as bad as Covid?  Wrong (and right) it is worse.

 

"Tuberculosis (TB) is caused by bacteria (Mycobacterium tuberculosis) that most often affect the lungs. Tuberculosis is curable and preventable. TB is spread from person to person through the air. When people with lung TB cough, sneeze or spit, they propel the TB germs into the air. A person needs to inhale only a few of these germs to become infected."

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tuberculosis

 

"Tuberculosis (TB) is a global disease, found in every country in the world. It is the leading infectious cause of death worldwide."

https://www.tballiance.org/why-new-tb-drugs/global-pandemic

 

"Tuberculosis kills three people a minute as case numbers rise"

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/oct/13/tuberculosis-killing-more-people-than-thought-who-tb-cases-death

 

How's them apples buddy??  Do you now understand??

 

[chessman]

5 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

OK then how about Tuberculosis?  WHO states that 1.5 million die annually from TB - some sources say it is actually 1.8 million. But even at 1.5 million, that is 125,000 per month. That is 28,846 per week. That is 4,120 per day.  But here is the BIGGY - TB has been killing people for a long time.   Over the last decade TB has killed at least 15 million people - probably a lot more.

The response to COVID has been about  the potential of the virus to do damage. A highly contagious virus with a mortality rate high enough to kill millions and millions.