SURVEY: When will tourism return to normal?

[Blumpie]

4 hours ago, Max69xl said:

What will you achieve when asking a question like that here at TV? Do you think there are people here with info no one else have?  You'll get hundreds of posts and 99% are just rubbish. 

Ahmen to this.

There are a ton of perspectives on this, but the sad fact is that only where countries are going will dictate the outcome.  

Tourism?  They aren't going to let you out of your country anytime soon.  And I personally guarantee China won't let them out for this kind of rubbish either.  The world's economy is at stake.

Lots of doomsayers on here too, but remember as soon as there is a plausible treatment for the disease things can and will change very very suddenly.

No, it will not take 6-8 years for a vaccine.  The entire planet stopped everything, everything! to get this vaccine done.  12-18 months as of 1 month ago, but these guys are being a little pessimistic.  Or not.  We just have to wait and see what occurs in the studies.  

Thai GDP dependent on tourism they say is 15 percent, with a further 6 percent that feeds off the tourism industry, so what 21 percent drop in GDP?  Things could get bad.

Let's hope that I"m wrong!   

[Tony125]

11 hours ago, cmsally said:

I would guess, back to some normality around autumn 2021. A lot depends on whether there are second/third waves of the virus. Also depends on when paperwork required to travel is relaxed.

What happens if a coronavirus vaccine is never developed? It's happened before

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/what-happens-if-a-coronavirus-vaccine-is-never-developed-its-happened-before/ar-BB13wAe0?li=BBnb7Kz

[Blumpie]

4 minutes ago, Tony125 said:

What happens if a coronavirus vaccine is never developed? It's happened before

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/what-happens-if-a-coronavirus-vaccine-is-never-developed-its-happened-before/ar-BB13wAe0?li=BBnb7Kz

Scientists are nearly 100 percent comfortable that it will be developed, and with all the potential vaccines being trialed right now, one will work.  

That is click-bait news circulating around.  

[JensenZ]

9 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Tourism won't be there for next high season in November, possibly the following of 2021.

No single male tourist will be coming here until the bars, karaokes and soapy massages are allowed to re-open.

But they need to have customers to make it possible to open and start paying the bills. Once the cycle is broken it might never recover. How does a major hotel like the Hilton get to reopen? They need a lot of customers to break even - how do you get the ball rolling again? Apart from what they have lost already, they will need to run at a loss for a long time in the hope of becoming profitable again and when that happens is anyone's guess.

 

Thailand's tourism business has not been badly affected. It has been destroyed. Saying it has been badly affected is assuming it still exists. It does not and it's the same in most countries.

 

The biggest problem is reopening again. Everyone seems to think you just on switch the lights on again because the virus has vanished. The social distancing and curfew has ensured that virtually no one will have immunity, so the public is as susceptible to the virus now as it was when they switched the lights off, but due to the poverty and stress that has been caused, the general public immunity will be running even lower. We will have to wait until the end of the year before such questions (when will tourism recover) can be answered, as a 2nd wave is very strong possibility. Most countries do not have the money to bail people and businesses out a 2nd time. We won't be discussing recession, but 1930's style depression.

 

 

[DrTuner]

I hope it will never return to the totally non-sustainable numbers of mass tourists raping Thailand, but usurpers will likely let half China in ASAP so it'll be worse than it was, around October. Then another wave or virus hits, rinse and repeat. 

 

There's no winning, unless Thailand pivots from tourism to other income. That would require education. So they're screwed.

Edited May 3, 2020 by DrTuner

[Captain Monday]

Never if unicorns like No Risk of Covid-19 "certificates" are required.

[Blumpie]

18 minutes ago, JensenZ said:

But they need to have customers to make it possible to open and start paying the bills. Once the cycle is broken it might never recover. How does a major hotel like the Hilton get to reopen? They need a lot of customers to break even - how do you get the ball rolling again? Apart from what they have lost already, they will need to run at a loss for a long time in the hope of becoming profitable again and when that happens is anyone's guess.

 

Thailand's tourism business has not been badly affected. It has been destroyed. Saying it has been badly affected is assuming it still exists. It does not and it's the same in most countries.

 

 

 

 

Oh I believe you, and to say that it isn't coming back anytime soon is the understatement of the century.  Again, unless a viable treatment option becomes widely available.  Seven billion people on the planet?  The widely part will take a long time.  

 

Someone somewhere is throwing around news stories about how tourist numbers will be back in the fall.  That's so that people don't go crazy and freak out right now.  Kind of how they slowly locked the world down, instead of quickly doing it.  

[Mulambana]

1 hour ago, Dublin14 said:

I strongly believe and having seen it with my own eyes tourism in Thailand has being declining for the past 3yrs!! 

I don't know where do you get your stats. 2017, 2018, 2019 tourist numbers 35.5m, 38.1m, and 39.8m, respectively. 

[rodknock]

NEVER as long as immigration makes it hard and treats tourist like garbage!!!!

[Mulambana]

2 hours ago, Dublin14 said:

Chinese tourists,they don't go to eatieries ,bars, taxi's etc,

All chinese restaurants are packed. All fruit markets are packed with chinese buying fruits. Bars no. Chinese don't come here to hunt for their future brides. But some hinese exclusive sex places have opened up recently where Thais and Westerns are not welcome. I have seen lots of Indians taking taxis and most Indians don't come in packaged tours. Thai girls don't like Indian and Chinese because they know that there is zero chance of them finding a husband among that gorup. So why they are going to waste their time with them? 

Edited May 3, 2020 by Mulambana

[racket]

First statement most probable, let's also not forget the statements made by the health minister. 

[2112]

12 hours ago, madmitch said:

will Thailand be strict enough to close its buffets, including moo gatas, indefinitely?

It would be tough for me to stay if Moogata disappears indefinitely!

 

In my opinion, there are just too many variables involved to make any kind of accurate prediction. I think the primary factor would be a Covid-19 vaccine. As for the rest, hospitality and travel industries have been decimated to the point that it may well take years for tourism (worldwide, not only Thailand) to recover to pre-Covid levels. Add to that the number of employed people has significantly dropped, likely resulting in fewer people's ability to afford holidays here. I would certainly hope that tourism to Thailand would recover quicker than most other popular destinations; this country has so much to offer visitors. I'm thankful to be able to live here permanently.

Cheers, and please stay healthy!!

[Jane Dough]

You might have made a distinction between Thai and foreign tourists. My view is that generally people will stay in their home countries for holidays for many years. Thai tourism in Thailand will slowly get better. It will be a lot faster to return to normal than foreign tourism that will take years.

 

The dire economic results of the virus and people's unwillingness to fly are key.

 

Rooster

[Zikomat]

Since Thailand did not get a herd immunity - it might stay closed forever. 

[JensenZ]

32 minutes ago, 2112 said:

It would be tough for me to stay if Moogata disappears indefinitely!

 

In my opinion, there are just too many variables involved to make any kind of accurate prediction. I think the primary factor would be a Covid-19 vaccine. As for the rest, hospitality and travel industries have been decimated to the point that it may well take years for tourism (worldwide, not only Thailand) to recover to pre-Covid levels. Add to that the number of employed people has significantly dropped, likely resulting in fewer people's ability to afford holidays here. I would certainly hope that tourism to Thailand would recover quicker than most other popular destinations; this country has so much to offer visitors. I'm thankful to be able to live here permanently.

Cheers, and please stay healthy!!

You call the current unemployment situation in most countries a significant drop? I would not call 30 million losing their jobs in the US or 2 million in Australia more than a significant drop. It's a devastating drop.

 

Here we're discussing Pattaya. Pattaya is not a "quality tourist" destination as many TAT officials like to pretend it could be, and relies on a lot of budget tourists. It's the budget tourist category that will be hardest hit by covid-19. Rich people can always travel, but we won't see them in Pattaya.

 

My prediction is we will never again see the old pre-covid-19 Pattaya. It will morph into something quite different. It was already on this path pre-covid but covid will push it along.

[Dublin14]

2 hours ago, Mulambana said:

I don't know where do you get your stats. 2017, 2018, 2019 tourist numbers 35.5m, 38.1m, and 39.8m, respectively. 

I'm sure u got them from TAT

[Hanuman2547]

I think this year the tourist season is pretty well shot.  First off, people will have to recover economically from the lack of income over the last two months.  They might go on holiday but it will be something closer to their home and in their own country.  If there is no second or third wave of the virus then it is possible to see things pick up in November 2021.  I doubt you will see the tourist numbers from Europe, North America, and Australia return to what they once were 5-6 years ago.  The businesses that cater to them will have to adjust their business model to stay competitive.  

[Beanfarmer05]

I've been visiting Thailand for only a short period,since 2016. I usually visit twice a year and use it as a base to travel short haul to neighbouring countries,which has allowed me to pack in a lot of countries in each trip(Cambodia,Vietnam,Laos,Singapore etc).

 

This year in January I went purely to Thailand and spent 3 weeks,2 in samui and one in pattaya. 

 

I'm very fortunate to be in a strong financial position whilst youngish at 38 and in a secure job, but I think the chances of me returning to Thailand or Asia this side of xmas is slim.

 

I almost feel an obligation to holiday in the UK and see some of the parts of my country I've never been to,to support small businesses here. I think others around the world will be doing likewise. Maybe short haul to Europe at the end of the summer hopefully as I had a trip to Portugal booked for September and Poland and Czech in october

[Hanuman2547]

2 hours ago, Mulambana said:

I don't know where do you get your stats. 2017, 2018, 2019 tourist numbers 35.5m, 38.1m, and 39.8m, respectively. 

It's not that the numbers are declining but more about where are the tourists coming from.  Chinese tourism has been up but western tourism has been down.  If you're sitting at a bar in Pattaya and for the past several days and nights you see the bar only half full you will feel that tourist numbers are down.  The numbers aren't down it's just that they have shifted as to country of origin.  

[Don Chance]

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/494371-coronavirus-has-mutated-into-more-than-30

 

If Covid keeps mutating who knows what will happen to humans.

 

on the upside it looks like June 1st tourist may come back.

[torturedsole]

There's already a January 2021 TAT announcement lined up reporting record-breaking numbers of tourists flocking to LOS.  

[lkv]

36 minutes ago, Don Chance said:

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/494371-coronavirus-has-mutated-into-more-than-30

 

If Covid keeps mutating who knows what will happen to humans.

 

on the upside it looks like June 1st tourist may come back.

This is research coming from Beijing, that's not peer reviewed. It is suggesting that the European strain infected the Americans.

 

And that the European strain is ×270 deadlier than the Chinese strain.

 

The Communist Party of China, for everybody to understand, has started regulating what studies get published and what not.

 

Take into account.

[2112]

3 hours ago, JensenZ said:

You call the current unemployment situation in most countries a significant drop? I would not call 30 million losing their jobs in the US or 2 million in Australia more than a significant drop. It's a devastating drop.

 

Here we're discussing Pattaya. Pattaya is not a "quality tourist" destination as many TAT officials like to pretend it could be, and relies on a lot of budget tourists. It's the budget tourist category that will be hardest hit by covid-19. Rich people can always travel, but we won't see them in Pattaya.

 

My prediction is we will never again see the old pre-covid-19 Pattaya. It will morph into something quite different. It was already on this path pre-covid but covid will push it along.

Semantic discussion when it comes to using an adjective to describe the unemployed. Call it significant, devastating, huge, crippling, or whatever you like. The result is the same.

And Pattaya could fall into the ocean never to be heard or seen again in my opinion. It'd be the best thing to happen to Thailand tourism since 1950.

[torturedsole]

Just now, 2112 said:

And Pattaya could fall into the ocean never to be heard or seen again in my opinion. It'd be the best thing to happen to Thailand tourism since 1950.

But what about the caring business owners and scammers that rely on tourist baht?  Have a conscience.  

[Number 6]

Loveless single males will return as soon as possible trouble is this lot is not wanted. Unwelcome at point of arrival. No Pattaya for you - it's jail and back home! Poor value but unlike British scousers living here this lot is happy to pay up. Three weeks in "paradise". Savings and employment dubious.

 

Western tourists in general. Health concerns to fly, Hassle of documents, cost of flights, even availability as flights cut in half or more. Families won't risk their children to come to Thailand. Poor value. Savings ravaged. May be unemployed.

 

Newly minted expats. Private pensions will go bust. Many state pensions in UScas well. Living here permanently rethought especially with decent insurance back home. Currency remains high, prices on goods and services high. Will be critical.  Immigration issues remain appear will get worse not better. With cash money not only worth less but being inflated, markets blown out there's nowhere for retirees to generate income. Flights home  or family out to see them here very expensive. Dual even tri priced healthcare system.

 

Indians - hard to say. I would only venture this will be knocked down 85%. Simply a gut feeling for many reasons.

 

Chinese will return as they try to dump their property in China and get their money out. Infrastructure here already stable and welcome of Chinese. Far closer than Bali. Package tours when they fully return will still be off 50%. It will be the criminal element that flock here to hide money in condos, run scams and whatnot. Chinese won't think twice about distancing and hygiene on planes. They live with all this daily at home. They won't care about politics here so government will push to attract.

 

Japanese - other than shifting business out of China this lot other than single men is finished. It was years ago.

 

Maybe hotels can be repurposed into condos 555. Oh wait a minute...

 

I think the Thai government best ramp up UBI instead of complaining about giving out a few thousand baht pm to peasants.

 

Team Thailand can think of ways to replace FIFTEEN percent of GDP.

 

My wildcard prediction is Pattaya will be repurposed into a Thai bedroom community that services factories in Rayong. There will be a huge push to centralize all factories on Eastern seaboard. I suspect the implosion has started.

 

 

 

Edited May 3, 2020 by Number 6

[ChouDoufu]

3 hours ago, lkv said:

This is research coming from Beijing, that's not peer reviewed. It is suggesting that the European strain infected the Americans.

 

And that the European strain is ×270 deadlier than the Chinese strain.

 

The Communist Party of China, for everybody to understand, has started regulating what studies get published and what not.

 

Take into account.

if you take off your conspiracy goggles and go into the report you'll find the study was done on samples from hangzhou to try to better understand the effects of mutations.

 

there are now different strains affecting the usa.  the west coast was hit by a strain imported directly from china.  the east coast strain initially spread to europe, but was from there imported into the us.  the study matched mutations found in the hangzhou samples to those in the east and west coast strains.

 

the east coast strain is deadlier than the west coast strain, with higher fatality rates in europe and new york than in california.  there are indications that this could result in requiring two vaccines....or possibly more.

 

but not to worry, we can safely ignore the evil chinese disinformation and only develop a single vaccine for the west coast strain.  uv bulbs and bleach will fix them new yorkers right up.

 

the full study is available here, download the 57-page pdf:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20060160v2.full.pdf+html

[ChipButty]

According to Booking.com it will be about November and they reckon the Chinese will be the first to come back and Europeans not until next year depending on what restrictions are needed to enter Thailand insurance and medical certificate

[hobz]

16 hours ago, Mbaki said:

What Xenophobic rubbish, you’ve been reading too many conspiracy theories ???? Tourism will return to normal as soon as restrictions are lifted, and this virus thing is out of the media, most of the regulars are biting at the bullet to get back here not counting the expats stranded overseas away from their families.

Is it xenophobic to be against a ruling party? I have nothing against the Chinese people. Just it's leaders.

 

It's not a conspiracy theory that they withheld information in multiple ways. It's facts.

 

It's not a conspiracy theory that we are in a economic recession heading into a depression. You think people will be able to afford to travel like before you have to be pretty ignorant about economics.

 

Also covid is not gonna get out of media for a long time.

Edited May 4, 2020 by hobz

[Prairieboy]

21 hours ago, finnsk said:

The economical, what will happends with the flight tickets prices, will they double up if the flights had to make social distance

I read an article a few days ago that domestic fares will go from ~3+baht/km to ~9 baht so double or triple could be in the offing!

 

[Skallywag]

15 hours ago, Mikeasq60 said:

All I know is I want to get back to Thailand to be with my wife thats all I care about and Im not afraid of this invisible enemy Ive lived through worse my 62 years on this planet. What on earth are people falling for!

You had a 24 day window to get back when the pandemic was announced.  Why didnt you come back then if it is "all" you care about?   This virus is different that anything in the last 62 years, so no way you can know if you "lived through worse".  

 

15 hours ago, Mikeasq60 said:

So their are people who will actually take that vaccine are you serious and as far as the virus goes just like the flu or dengue itll be back.

Yes, and a vaccine will give you a fighting chance when it does come back

Edited May 4, 2020 by Skallywag