This is never going to end

[mauGR1]

1 minute ago, vermin on arrival said:

Maybe. I have been crushed by it.

You are not alone, that's for sure.

[tribalfusion001]

20 minutes ago, bartender100 said:

End of August this will all be over IMHO, already death rates are falling in the countries ahead of the game, antibody test and vaccines will be getting rolled out, slow lifting of lockdown rules from early June

 

The much hyped Nightingale hospital in London has been mothballed only ever treating 56 patients

 

Russia will be a problem still

 

 

Vaccines take years to test out and be safe. I wouldn't go anywhere near a vaccine for at least 2 to 3 years.

 

I agree, the rates are falling, it's whether the over zealous officials will let people socialize again and get back normal.

[chessman]

31 minutes ago, bartender100 said:

End of August this will all be over IMHO, already death rates are falling in the countries ahead of the game, antibody test and vaccines will be getting rolled out, slow lifting of lockdown rules from early June

Would love this to be true, but influenza outbreaks usually have further waves... and the are reasons to think that this virus spreads more easily than flu

 

2nd and 3rd waves of the Spanish Flu were much bigger than the initial wave.

[Scott]

Post with a video from an unapproved source has been removed along with replies.

 

[flinc2020]

9 hours ago, phantomfiddler said:

May I point out that on any normal PRE-COVID day in U.S.A. an AVERAGE of 8,500 people die, every winter day, (and around 7,000 per day in the warmer months) mainly of course from respiratory ailments. I believe this to be the most gargantuan hoax ever perpetrated on the human race, and to call it a pandemic verges on the criminal. The Black Plague WAS a pandemic, killing 50% of the population in Europe at the time. This load of spin invites a comparison between 50 and 0.007% !

You cannot compare the Black (Plague) Death with Covid 19. At the time of the Black Plague medicine had not even reached it's infancy. Bleeding was the 'cure all' for any ailment. Mass media did not exist so there was no way to effectively warn and educate the masses. Housing, for those that could afford it, was woefully poor and offered no safe haven. Also, Bubonic plague was a bacterium that needed the presence of a carrier to help it spread, not a virus capable of being passed by contact and surviving on surfaces for hours. Were you to release Covid 19 in the 14th century it would, most likely, equal if not exceed the death rate of bubonic plague.

[DaRoadrunner]

2 hours ago, Logosone said:

Let us not wallow in the valley of despair, I say to you today, my friends.

 

And so even though we face the difficulties of today and tomorrow, I still have a dream. It is a dream deeply rooted in the Asian dream.

 

I have a dream that one day this nation will rise up and live out the true meaning of its creed: "The Land of Smiles."

 

I have a dream that one day on the smokey hills of Chiang Mai, the sons of former bar girls and the sons of former cashiers will be able to sit down together at the table of brotherhood.

 

I have a dream that one day even the province of Phuket, an island sweltering with the heat of injustice, sweltering with the heat of sling-shots, will be transformed into an oasis of freedom and justice.

 

I have a dream that my four little masseuses will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the absence of a face mask but by the content of their character.

 

I have a dream today!

 

And then he woke up.

[Tounge Thaied]

[Nemises]

On 5/3/2020 at 2:50 PM, sukhumvitneon said:

only industries left will be Amazon and Walmart.

and TVF 

[mr mr]

On 5/3/2020 at 11:50 AM, sukhumvitneon said:

"We're all in this together"

 

"This is the new normal"

 

"Stay safe, stay home".

funny you chose those phrases.

 

skip to 6:30 in the video. 

 

you forgot one more phrase though. 

 

*we're here to help*

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

18 hours ago, kingstonkid said:

After every major event things change.  But then again things change with time.

Yes things changed after 9/11 before we were in a world where only countries did the things that bin laden did.  ISIS was not even around.

The west is now waking up to a world that is not a pretty as they thought.Western countries are ot immune to things in Asia.  

Life here will go on as it has in the past.  many people will wear face masks.  Private and semi private schools will ensure that kids learn to wear them when they are sick.

We will be careful of where we put things or what we touch.  

After we go to the bathroom we will wash our hands.

We are not going to go with the girl that says 200 baht short time that has not washed.

People will be more careful about their drinks.  Beer in an unopened bottle is going to be a big hit again for awhile. 

IMO as soon as it's over people will go back to the same as they did before. Many people don't wash their hands after doing #2 and that's a high chance of getting hepatitis. In NZ hundreds behaving just like they did before lockdown while it's still in effect ( out partying ).

[thaibeachlovers]

8 hours ago, tribalfusion001 said:

it's whether the over zealous officials will let people socialize again and get back normal.

They'll have to be dragged kicking and screaming to give up their total control over the populace, IMO. I'm sure some of them have been dreaming of a situation like this for their entire lives, which is why they became officials rather than do a real job.

It might take a change of government to bring them to heel.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 5/3/2020 at 4:50 PM, sukhumvitneon said:

"We're all in this together"

 

"This is the new normal"

 

"Stay safe, stay home".

You forgot "save lives".

[thaibeachlovers]

9 hours ago, Sujo said:

Sounds like you would rather nothing be done until 50% of the population dies then say ok its a problem so its time to do something.

Who says the death rate would be 50%? I've seen ZERO scientific evidence of that rate. I can't find the % rate of deaths from Corona on the internet but it's not 50% for sure.

Once herd immunity is reached it becomes just another flu type infection.

Edited May 5, 2020 by thaibeachlovers

[hotandsticky]

11 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Who says the death rate would be 50%? I've seen ZERO scientific evidence of that rate. I can't find the % rate of deaths from Corona on the internet but it's not 50% for sure.

Once herd immunity is reached it becomes just another flu type infection.

 

 

Try this:-

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[mauGR1]

32 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Who says the death rate would be 50%? I've seen ZERO scientific evidence of that rate. I can't find the % rate of deaths from Corona on the internet but it's not 50% for sure.

Once herd immunity is reached it becomes just another flu type infection.

If those people were right, by now there would be corpses piled up in every corner of the world.

 

[Kinnock]

Have you noticed how the people cowering at home from COWARDIS-19 react angrily to anyone who correctly points out that there's lots of people in the world, therefore lots of elderly people, people with pre-existing conditions, people who have rare and unusual reactions to a virus, people who would probably have died this year with or without a new virus.  People die.  There's regular global spikes due to seasonal flu, some worse than COVID, there's regular regional spikes due to TB, malaria, Ebola, Dengue, HIV - but we don't lock down everything and create mass unemployment, misery and ill health each time there's an epidemic. 

 

This is all panicking politicians and media induced fear.  Every time a strain of flu that's not been around for a while re-emerges, we get logarithmic growth, each novel virus does the same - and there's been several novel coronavirus outbreaks in the past that were hardly noticed.

 

The development of new testing technologies like PCR and low cost test kits has enabled us to track epidemics like never before, and internet media has enabled us to communicate on a global scale - resulting in an pandemic of mass fear.

 

Look at Thailand - a culture that is highly resistant to social distancing, a marginally effective government, 500,000 arrivals from Wuhan during the peak period of spread in China ..... and how many people do you know personally who've died?

 

The figures we're fed every minute look scary because the world is a big place, not because we're all going to die of a virus that is a variant of one of the causes of the common cold.

 

Most of us who are not hiding indoors choosing our favourite albums to post on Facebook probably caught it weeks ago, didn't even know we had it, and are are now immune.  That's the real reason so few deaths in Thailand .... it was the number 1 global destination for arrivals from Wuhan from November to February.

 

[SMEinBangkok]

On 5/3/2020 at 12:36 PM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

EPI UPDATE The WHO COVID-19 Situation Report for April 30 reports 3.09 million confirmed cases (71,839 new) and 217,769 deaths (9,797 new) worldwide.

Numbers indeed:  3.09 million confirmed cases means that 99.96% of the world's population (7.8 billion) is unaffected.

 

On 5/3/2020 at 12:36 PM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The US CDC reported 1.03 million total cases (26,512 new) and 60,057 deaths (2,552 new). This is the second consecutive day of increasing incidence...

Meaning that 99.6% of the US population is unaffected.

 

According to the CDC 2,814,000 die each year from all cases making an average daily death rate of 7,700.

 

Table below is from the CDC...note the time frame and the deaths from pneumonia.

 

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by SMEinBangkok
Content

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, SMEinBangkok said:

Meaning that 99.6% of the US population is unaffected.

 

According to the CDC 2,814,000 die each year from all cases making an average daily death rate of 7,700.

 

Table below is from the CDC...note the time frame and the deaths from pneumonia.

 

 

 

1+ million cases out of a 300+ million population is a 0.3+% rate of people "affected," not the fractional amount you mentioned.

 

The official numbers of virus infections as reported by the government are widely believed to be a vast undercount of actual infection cases, because of the lack of comprehensive testing and testing policies.

 

The data from NCHS is invariably late and far behind current reality based on the way they do their data gathering.

 

In the absence of serious preventive measures like social distancing and stay at home, which the U.S. govt is now backing away from, experts have estimated the virus in the end could end up affecting half or more of the U.S. populations, with exponentially larger numbers of hospitalizations and deaths as a result.

 

This thing is far from over yet. And until there's a widely deployed vaccine or effective medical treatment, the virus is going to continue to spread and affect more people to the extent that social distancing and stay at home measures fall by the wayside.

 

Lately, the U.S. has been running on an "official" COVID deaths rate of almost 2000 per day, and the government just yesterday projected that could increase to 3000 cases per day. That would be about 90K deaths per month. Ongoing, until something changes.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[sukhumvitneon]

 To the guy who said liquids and gels weren't prohibited due to 9/11, I think the prohibition was instated after the December 2009 detroit airliner bombing attempt, you're right but you get my point.  Once a restriction is introduced it usually doesn't go away, especially if it's a "public safety" initiative

Edited May 5, 2020 by sukhumvitneon

[sukhumvitneon]

1 hour ago, Kinnock said:

Have you noticed how the people cowering at home from COWARDIS-19 react angrily to anyone who correctly points out that there's lots of people in the world, therefore lots of elderly people, people with pre-existing conditions, people who have rare and unusual reactions to a virus, people who would probably have died this year with or without a new virus.  People die.  There's regular global spikes due to seasonal flu, some worse than COVID, there's regular regional spikes due to TB, malaria, Ebola, Dengue, HIV - but we don't lock down everything and create mass unemployment, misery and ill health each time there's an epidemic. 

 

This is all panicking politicians and media induced fear.  Every time a strain of flu that's not been around for a while re-emerges, we get logarithmic growth, each novel virus does the same - and there's been several novel coronavirus outbreaks in the past that were hardly noticed.

 

The development of new testing technologies like PCR and low cost test kits has enabled us to track epidemics like never before, and internet media has enabled us to communicate on a global scale - resulting in an pandemic of mass fear.

 

Look at Thailand - a culture that is highly resistant to social distancing, a marginally effective government, 500,000 arrivals from Wuhan during the peak period of spread in China ..... and how many people do you know personally who've died?

 

The figures we're fed every minute look scary because the world is a big place, not because we're all going to die of a virus that is a variant of one of the causes of the common cold.

 

Most of us who are not hiding indoors choosing our favourite albums to post on Facebook probably caught it weeks ago, didn't even know we had it, and are are now immune.  That's the real reason so few deaths in Thailand .... it was the number 1 global destination for arrivals from Wuhan from November to February.

 

Right.  The virus is real, and people have died from it. I was apprehensive about it myself at first. However, it turns out this whole situation is a giant money and power grab by the elite that will accomplish what the "climate change" scare didn't do.

[TooBigToFit]

Sukumvitneon sounds like Henny-Penny the goose who said the sky is falling. What were the alt people claiming was going to happen prior to this event? All the paranoid people that think the gov't is taking over have been in this mental state since 911. Maybe this is all a plan of the lizard people who control the planet? ????????

[NCC1701A]

On 5/3/2020 at 11:50 AM, sukhumvitneon said:

"We're all in this together"

 

"This is the new normal"

 

"Stay safe, stay home".

this is the BTS this morning in Bangkok after a train malfunction. 

i am using this time to get ready for the second wave to hit. 

thanks for Richard Barrow for the photos.   

good luck everybody.

[actonion]

More Doom & Gloom is  not necessary

[sukhumvitneon]

9 minutes ago, TooBigToFit said:

Sukumvitneon sounds like Henny-Penny the goose who said the sky is falling. What were the alt people claiming was going to happen prior to this event? All the paranoid people that think the gov't is taking over have been in this mental state since 911. Maybe this is all a plan of the lizard people who control the planet? ????????

when you have autism

[sukhumvitneon]

9 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

this is the BTS this morning in Bangkok after a train malfunction. 

i am using this time to get ready for the second wave to hit. 

thanks for Richard Barrow for the photos.   

good luck everybody.

aren't you retired from some illustrious hollywood career? stay home if you feel unsafe

[Kinnock]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

1+ million cases out of a 300+ million population is a 0.3+% rate of people "affected," not the fractional amount you mentioned.

 

The official numbers of virus infections as reported by the government are widely believed to be a vast undercount of actual infection cases, because of the lack of comprehensive testing and testing policies.

 

The data from NCHS is invariably late and far behind current reality based on the way they do their data gathering.

 

In the absence of serious preventive measures like social distancing and stay at home, which the U.S. govt is now backing away from, experts have estimated the virus in the end could end up affecting half or more of the U.S. populations, with exponentially larger numbers of hospitalizations and deaths as a result.

 

This thing is far from over yet. And until there's a widely deployed vaccine or effective medical treatment, the virus is going to continue to spread and affect more people to the extent that social distancing and stay at home measures fall by the wayside.

 

Lately, the U.S. has been running on an "official" COVID deaths rate of almost 2000 per day, and the government just yesterday projected that could increase to 3000 cases per day. That would be about 90K deaths per month. Ongoing, until something changes.

 

 

 

 

I don't get how some people think vast numbers of unknown infected people is a bad thing?

 

These cases are too mild to need treatment, many people probably never knew they had it - so thuis means in most cases the illness is mild.  It also means herd immunity is growing, so the real end is in site, and it means the case fatality rate is vastly over estimated.  All good news.

 

Next time there's a seasonal cold outbreak are we going to be saying "oh no, huge numbers of mild cases, logarithmic growth, let's shut ourselves in our homes and play Facebook games and watch porn while the economy collapses?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

14 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

I don't get how some people think vast numbers of unknown infected people is a bad thing?

 

Because the "unknown" people who get it, even if they have little or no symptoms, are just as contagious as those with symptoms. Meaning they will spread it to others, who will spread it to others, etc etc... 

 

At least when people get visibly sick, they probably will tend to take some precautions like keeping away from others, wearing a mask, etc.... But it's the asymptomatic people who run around socializing carelessly with others who end up spreading the disease even more.

 

[Kinnock]

4 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Because the "unknown" people who get it, even if they have little or no symptoms, are just as contagious as those with symptoms. Meaning they will spread it to others, who will spread it to others, etc etc... 

 

At least when people get visibly sick, they probably will tend to take some precautions like keeping away from others, wearing a mask, etc.... But it's the asymptomatic people who run around socializing carelessly with others who end up spreading the disease even more.

 

I think you need to go back to the Google School of Amateur Virology.

 

The only way viral pandemics end is when you have enough people with immunity, and if immunity is short lived, then you need to achieve this as quickly as possible.  The 'flattening the curve' theory is a dangerous myth created by people who were worried about temporary overloading of hospitals. 

 

See many overloaded hospitals in Thailand??

 

You get this for a few weeks in countries with a high level of obesity or a high average age .... but still not worth all the health issues created by the economic depression.

[2 is 1]

On 5/3/2020 at 12:12 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

This is like the Black Death except the government did it to us. The virus has hardly killed anyone on a global scale- cars kill more.

Good that in many things you can choose! Don't drive! Don't leave home if you are afraid of corona! Get infected and over that one( if really can get immunity)! All what you can't choose is when you die or in LOS when buy beer!

You can worried everything in life if you want to do so! Anyway this life is too short to be always worried! IMO we be here only once ! If im wrong about that come tell me after your reincarnation! Don't kill yourself or its hard to speak if you are fly!

[chessman]

Here's an opinion piece from a doctor in the scientific American talking about the way they compile the numbers for COVID 19 and the FLU.

 

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

 

The high flu numbers of deaths that people quote to make an equivalency with COVID 19 are adjusted numbers based on an analysis of death data. When this is done the number of deaths always go up. The rolling numbers of flu deaths during the flu season are always much lower. We have the same issue now with Covid, we are looking at the rolling number but the true number (that will be calculated later using death data) will be much higher in most places.

 

There are very difficult decisions to me made about the right levels for economies to open up (of course we need to start doing this), but these should be done with all the data and an acknowledgement that we are are currently underestimating the death count too (as of course we are are underestimating the amount of infected people).