Chula virologist shows how Thais can avoid a second-wave outbreak

By The Nation

 

Dr Yong Poovorawan

 

Thailand faces a second wave of Covid-19 infections unless people stick to the “new normal” of social distancing, warned a Chulalongkorn University virologist today (May 14).

 

Dr Yong Poovorawan noted that everyone was looking forward to the second phase of lockdown easing after the rate of infection had fallen. But he warned that a second wave of the outbreak had hit many other countries.

 

“To protect ourselves from the disease and the risk of a second-phase outbreak, we must stay on our guard and wash hands with soap or sanitising gel regularly and stay at home,” he wrote on Facebook.

 

“If people have to go outdoors, they must wear face masks, maintain distance from others and avoid going to crowded places. The windows of hair salons, restaurants, workplaces and houses should be opened for ventilation.”

 

He also advised people to beware of respiratory disease during the rainy season.

 

“Whether we suffer a second wave of the outbreak depends on us and the government's preventive measures, especially among migrant workers” he added.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30387843

 

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3 minutes ago, webfact said:

“If people have to go outdoors, they must wear face masks, maintain distance from others and avoid going to crowded places.

considering thai walking streets are now opening, tourists and mainstream thais not caring, add-in migrant workers, public transportation of all kinds and this idea is a non-starter

9 minutes ago, webfact said:

But he warned that a second wave of the outbreak had hit many other countries.

 

Has it?

1 minute ago, bodga said:

Has it?

Think hes talkin about Mumps

I guess reading articles like Thomas Pueyo's excellent analysis of what is to come is beyond most people: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-learning-how-to-dance-b8420170203e

I suspect that this is the 'second wave'. The first wave was last year.

Can this guy just shut up? He's been spouting his 15 minutes of fame for way too long now, and nothing he says is meaningful.

I'm seeing more articles from various places where people are beginning to suspect that what we're going through right now is the second wave.

 

From the UK :

 

The number of people hospitalised with flu this winter is almost ten times as high as this time last year, new figures show.

 

Total numbers hospitalised with flu have now reached 3,152 this season, compared with 331 last  year, the figures show.

 

Source - UK 3 Jan 2020 : https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/03/hospitalisations-flu-10-fold-higher-last-year-official-figures/

 

From Germany :

 

Almost 80,000 cases have been recorded since autumn. Almost half of those were confirmed within the last two weeks.

What changed in 'the last 2 weeks' that it doubled?

 

Source : 20 Feb 2020 : https://www.dw.com/en/massive-flu-wave-grips-germany/a-52445643

 

From Italy - the places most affected are the same as the COVID hot spots :

Almost three million cases of flu have been reported in Italy since the start of the winter season, and the number of confirmed cases is rising.

 

Source : Italy 23 Jan 2020 : https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-outbreak-in-italy-half-a-million-people-struck-down-in-a-week

 

All this time (late 2019) nobody knew COVID-19 existed and it was flu season after all so a certain level of disease is to be expected.

 

I have a feeling that COVID will have been flying under the radar during the flu season. It's almost like it was released at a time when it would go undetected for as long as possible.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crikey! This guy's on a self-promotion roll. Even for a Thai, it's impressive. Time for a hair tint though...

 

 

 

17 hours ago, webfact said:

“To protect ourselves from the disease and the risk of a second-phase outbreak, we must stay on our guard and wash hands with soap or sanitising gel regularly and stay at home,” he wrote on Facebook.

 

“If people have to go outdoors, they must wear face masks, maintain distance from others and avoid going to crowded places. The windows of hair salons, restaurants, workplaces and houses should be opened for ventilation.”

Yes - we can all live like Bubble Boy and we can avoid any risk in life! - what a great way to live.  Nigeria has 300,000 deaths from Malaria each year, thats more than 1% of the population.  They dont stay inside and avoid everything just because they might get bit.   Insanity!

Also, be sure to practise social distancing on the platforms before you enter the crowded BTS trains.
 

 

1 hour ago, Jimbo2014 said:

Yes - we can all live like Bubble Boy and we can avoid any risk in life! - what a great way to live.  Nigeria has 300,000 deaths from Malaria each year, thats more than 1% of the population.  They dont stay inside and avoid everything just because they might get bit.   Insanity!

Bought ticket to Nigeria yet?

18 hours ago, bodga said:

Has it?

China and South Korea had an uptick after opening.

 

Singapore had a second wave because of overcrowding in their migrant dormitories.

 

 

I guess he's relying on his vast experience with preventing second wave infections from global pandemics.  It's been tragically funny to watch these 'experienced' people say whatever comes into their pointed heads and then see the corona plebes eat it up and accept every pronouncement as the new Gospel.

 

When this thing is finally over in a decade or two, you'll see that most of what these 'experts' advised us to do was based on zero experience and zero scientific basis....just made up on the spot because it sounded good.

1 hour ago, Jimbo2014 said:

Yes - we can all live like Bubble Boy and we can avoid any risk in life! - what a great way to live.  Nigeria has 300,000 deaths from Malaria each year, thats more than 1% of the population.  They dont stay inside and avoid everything just because they might get bit.   Insanity!

Those dimwhits of the WHO think Nigeria has only 80000 deaths

https://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main.A1368?lang=en

Anyway,  Nigeria has a population of 200m https://www.google.com/search?q=population+nigeria&oq=population+nigetia&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0l3.7960j1j4&client=tablet-android-samsung&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

 

So 80000 deaths is "more than 1% of the population" as every stable genius knows. 

 

We are so lucky to have competent experts on TVF!

 

19 hours ago, webfact said:

“If people have to go outdoors, they must wear face masks, maintain distance from others and avoid going to crowded places.

All of which are being ignored by Thais where I live, many walk around with no mask, social distancing in the local markets is a joke, the wet/dry markets are packed solid.

18 hours ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Can this guy just shut up? He's been spouting his 15 minutes of fame for way too long now, and nothing he says is meaningful.

What is not "meaningful"?

Read the same advice in my local paper in my home country. 

20 hours ago, bodga said:

Has it?

Has there even been a first wave here in Thailand?

There is a vast difference to Distancing and Masks In Rural Areas. They appear that they ignore, but in reality they know every returnee from Holiday infested areas. The Police arrive at their homes like a drugs raid. Then isolate them in non to friendly way. 

3 hours ago, SMEinBangkok said:

I guess he's relying on his vast experience with preventing second wave infections from global pandemics.  It's been tragically funny to watch these 'experienced' people say whatever comes into their pointed heads and then see the corona plebes eat it up and accept every pronouncement as the new Gospel.

 

When this thing is finally over in a decade or two, you'll see that most of what these 'experts' advised us to do was based on zero experience and zero scientific basis....just made up on the spot because it sounded good.

As they have been responsible for one of the best managed responses to the pandemic how is it funny? Where are you from that did better? I think you just can't believe a Thai person (actually a great many) are smarter than you.

"But he warned that a second wave of the outbreak had hit many other countries". Not really.

 

I suppose this dude always support his opinions with incorrect facts because he believes Thai's don't watch news. 

 

The kind of second waves in Singapore, Korea and Japan were really local outbreaks that were contained, not real second waves. And in each case they were managed by test, trace and isolate. They were expected to happen.

 

And will happen in most countries and in Thailand. And will probably happen 2,3,4,5... times. There will be outbreaks. It's inevitable.

 

These outbreaks should be managed by test, trace and isolate. Not by national lockdown.

 

But we don't know whether the Prime Minister is intelligent or authoritarian.

3 minutes ago, Ketyo said:

"But he warned that a second wave of the outbreak had hit many other countries". 

 

The kind of second waves in Singapore, Korea and Japan were really local outbreaks that were contained, not real second waves. And in each case they were managed by test, trace and isolate. They were expected to happen.

 

And will happen in most countries and in Thailand. And will probably happen 2,3,4,5... times. There will be outbreaks. It's inevitable.

 

These outbreaks should be managed by test, trace and isolate. Not by national lockdown.

Yes as an example the recent outbreak in South Korea, 153 infected so far, 90 club goers, 63 friends, family and colleagues caught covid from them. The response?

 

Test trace islolate. More than 48,000 people have been tested already in connection with these cases. No need for lockdowns and they never have in SK

 

Thats how you crush an outbreak. Can Thailand do this? I hope so but have my doubts.

22 hours ago, webfact said:

“Whether we suffer a second wave of the outbreak depends on us and the government's preventive measures, especially among migrant workers” he added.

Sounds about right to me, but what exactly is the government doing in the way of preventive measures among migrant workers, beyond mouthing the endless mantra about washing your hands and keeping your distance? Have they asked Singapore what went so badly wrong there, and learnt from that country's experience?

23 hours ago, DrTuner said:

I guess reading articles like Thomas Pueyo's excellent analysis of what is to come is beyond most people: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-learning-how-to-dance-b8420170203e

This is just a superb set of articles with equally superb graphs.

Well done Dr Tuner for bringing this to the attention of those of us who are open minded enough to learn more about how the virus spreads and the most effective ways to control it.

6 hours ago, tomazbodner said:

Bought ticket to Nigeria yet?

I lived there for 4 years ????

7 hours ago, Proboscis said:

China and South Korea had an uptick after opening.

 

Singapore had a second wave because of overcrowding in their migrant dormitories.

 

 

Yes 

1 hour ago, khunken said:

This is just a superb set of articles with equally superb graphs.

Well done Dr Tuner for bringing this to the attention of those of us who are open minded enough to learn more about how the virus spreads and the most effective ways to control it.

I second that.

On 5/14/2020 at 4:27 PM, ukrules said:

I suspect that this is the 'second wave'. The first wave was last year.

Two days after getting a tooth pulled on 5 Jan I had a respiratory thing that lasted around 5 weeks. It started with terrible chills, but there was only an occasional slight wheeze after about 3 weeks into the course. Is there any place to get the new Roche antibody test?

32 minutes ago, placnx said:

Is there any place to get the new Roche antibody test?

Not that I'm aware of.

I don't think there has really been a first wave yet!