Here’s Why Thailand’s Dire Economic Outlook Is the Worst in Asia

By Suttinee Yuvejwattana and Michelle Jamrisko

 

-- Thailand’s central bank is forecasting 8.1% contraction in GDP

-- Tourism, trade are slumping, while strong baht is a worry

 

Thailand has been cited as a success story in containing the coronavirus outbreak, having gone more than 40 days without any local transmission of Covid-19. Yet its economic outlook is the darkest in Asia.

 

Gross domestic product is forecast to contract 8.1% this year, according to the Bank of Thailand. That’s worse than official forecasts for any of the main economies across Asia, and would be Thailand’s biggest GDP decline ever, surpassing even its plunge during the Asian financial crisis two decades ago.

 

“Thailand has large exposure as a tourism hub, close to 15% of GDP, and it also has large exposure of the export-oriented sector,” said Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, senior economist for Thailand at the World Bank. “Hence the large shock to GDP.”

 

-- © Copyright Bloomberg 2020-07-07

 

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To put that into perspective: 

https://www.statista.com/chart/21961/oecd-gdp-growth-projections-2020-on-2019/

Never mind. The main thing is that the government has returned happiness to the people , stopped all corruption in high places ,  united the politically divided nation and conquered covid 19.

 

Can't have everything.

5 minutes ago, Denim said:

Never mind. The main thing is that the government has returned happiness to the people , stopped all corruption in high places ,  united the politically divided nation and conquered covid 19.

 

Can't have everything.

And happy monkeys are picking coconuts. 

11 minutes ago, Denim said:

Never mind. The main thing is that the government has returned happiness to the people , stopped all corruption in high places ,  united the politically divided nation and conquered covid 19.

 

Can't have everything.

Besides, of course, the very rich and influential are now much richer and more influential. The real achievements of this government must not be hidden behind a smokescreen of fake news, unemployment, financial ruin for many and consequent poverty. They can always go back to their farms. And if the farms are gone, then they can wait at the road junctions near the villages early in the morning, in case anyone wants a slack handful of day labourers for B300 a day.

 

They don't know how lucky they are - of course they're happy.

When GDP is set to decline 8.1%, does that mean the THB will finally adjust to a more realistic exchange rate than it is now?

5 minutes ago, Misterwhisper said:

When GDP is set to decline 8.1%, does that mean the THB will finally adjust to a more realistic exchange rate than it is now?

 

5 minutes ago, Misterwhisper said:

When GDP is set to decline 8.1%, does that mean the THB will finally adjust to a more realistic exchange rate than it is now?

We live in hope but wont hold my breath,,,

When the Military Junta ( opps sorry the government ) allows fair elections and we get a government with some real understanding of how to govern then things may improve until then Mi phen Rai

 

I smell a tumbril ( hope I did spell   that correctly ! )

Meanwhile; the Teflon Baht holds steady !

3 hours ago, webfact said:

 

“Thailand has large exposure as a tourism hub, close to 15%

I've seen a lot more than 15% exposed in Soi/6 .. 100% in fact .. but won't all the High Quality Tourists they are confident will be banging on the door ( metaphorically ) readjust the balance back to happy , amazing and wonderful again .. 

 

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Yet its economic outlook is the darkest in Asia.

maybe, just maybe it could be due to the photo above (posted by rKidlad) keep in mind image is everything 555

2 hours ago, Misterwhisper said:

When GDP is set to decline 8.1%, does that mean the THB will finally adjust to a more realistic exchange rate than it is now?

No.

Hey, at least there's no Covid.

Who cares about everything else?

2 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

Hey, at least there's no Covid.

Who cares about everything else?

You reckon...

2 hours ago, Misterwhisper said:

When GDP is set to decline 8.1%, does that mean the THB will finally adjust to a more realistic exchange rate than it is now?

Given UK GDP is predicted to decline by 11.5% the THB might get even stronger ????   

 

8 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

Hey, at least there's no Covid.

Who cares about everything else?

The 9.5 million who lost their job might care.

 

3 hours ago, Misterwhisper said:

When GDP is set to decline 8.1%, does that mean the THB will finally adjust to a more realistic exchange rate than it is now?

Only if the government has to spend more than most other countries to get things back to normal but that doesn't seem likely. 

3 hours ago, johno49 said:

When the Military Junta ( opps sorry the government ) allows fair elections and we get a government with some real understanding of how to govern then things may improve until then Mi phen Rai

 

We have had fair elections we have had non military government. The problem is that they have no system to educate people.  With everyone passed off at China is a perfect time to retool industry and start to provide the things that China made unfortunately we lack the skilled labour force

But the nation has won a battle against Covid19. Who cares about the worst economic crisis in the history of the country? Stay home, wear mask, use hand sanitizer and everything will be OK!

50 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

The 9.5 million who lost their job might care.

 

It's called sarcasm

3 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

Besides, of course, the very rich and influential are now much richer and more influential. The real achievements of this government must not be hidden behind a smokescreen of fake news, unemployment, financial ruin for many and consequent poverty.

Good summary - Covid "agenda" ID2020, but they would never do that to humanity ????

Least we still have our freedom ???? 

The value of currency is a product of the productivity of the nation. A serious drop in productivity will result in a drop in the currency. Unless, the BOT decides to protect the currency  value. Most military would be opposed to a big drop in value.

4 hours ago, Denim said:

Never mind. The main thing is that the government has returned happiness to the people , stopped all corruption in high places ,  united the politically divided nation and conquered covid 19.

 

Can't have everything.

And still working on solving the overcharging on lotteries after 6 years !

4 hours ago, Misterwhisper said:

When GDP is set to decline 8.1%, does that mean the THB will finally adjust to a more realistic exchange rate than it is now?

Not if the economies in the UK, US and EU decline by even more.

3 hours ago, johno49 said:

When the Military Junta ( opps sorry the government ) allows fair elections and we get a government with some real understanding of how to govern then things may improve until then Mi phen Rai

 

Are you serious?

Do you really believe what you say?

You have no memory, don't remember the "democratic government" á la Thaksin?

Democracy, Sir, is something highly overrated, while it has been degraded to once every four years a totally useless vote because the political elite, from whatever side, will just do what they want.

If there would be another government, never mind the colour, the problems for the "little people" will remain the same, or worse, but never better.

Not only in Thailand, but nearly everywhere in the world.

19 minutes ago, DonaldBattles said:

The value of currency is a product of the productivity of the nation. A serious drop in productivity will result in a drop in the currency. Unless, the BOT decides to protect the currency  value. Most military would be opposed to a big drop in value.

I disagree that it is that. The productivity of a country is reflected in its GDP, if GDP increases it doesn't mean the currency will also strengthen. The strength of a currency is determined by a series of factors including the amount of debt owed by the country, its foreign currency reserve levels and the status of its current account. If the the current account (and trade balance) are in surplus it means the country exports more than it imports so the positive balance will go to increase foreign reserves. All those things are true in the case of Thailand which is why THB remains strong.

IMO 8.1% is a significant underestimate. I don't think the bank is factoring in ripple effects.

People will spend less, because they either don't have the money, or cannot get credit with no income. That does not bode well for the manufacturing industry.

2 hours ago, rkidlad said:

Now but where is the drug dealer in that picture? The international heroine courier. Fake pic I guess. Maybe busy handing out bananas..

3 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

IMO 8.1% is a significant underestimate. I don't think the bank is factoring in ripple effects.

People will spend less, because they either don't have the money, or cannot get credit with no income. That does not bode well for the manufacturing industry.

GDP is measured by adding the sum of all spending in an economy, it must include everything:

 

https://econ101help.com/three-different-ways-to-calculate-gdp/