Confusion amid reports Thailand's top economic team to resign

[spidermike007]

Prayuth needs a to resign immediately. Then Pipat. The economic team are genius minds compared to two goons. 

[newatthis]

11 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Prayuth needs a to resign immediately. Then Pipat. The economic team are genius minds compared to two goons. 

Maybe Prayut will offer a bigger slice of the pastry to the economics team to withdraw their resignation.

[dpcjsr]

An impossible tasks. I would resign, too.

[Rancid]

There will likely be a world depression as opposed to recession. Almost every country has locked down and destroyed their economies, and now the media want more, they are screaming 2nd wave, what businesses survived the 1st will go under on the next lock down. And all for 99% of the population have mild or no symptoms.

 

Thailand of course will get ugly as well, the rich like everywhere will get bailed and the many other businesses will permanently close. The debt levels in both the US and China are huge, so there wont be much help coming from there. Fasten your seat belts....

[spidermike007]

1 minute ago, Rancid said:

There will likely be a world depression as opposed to recession. Almost every country has locked down and destroyed their economies, and now the media want more, they are screaming 2nd wave, what businesses survived the 1st will go under on the next lock down. And all for 99% of the population have mild or no symptoms.

 

Thailand of course will get ugly as well, the rich like everywhere will get bailed and the many other businesses will permanently close. The debt levels in both the US and China are huge, so there wont be much help coming from there. Fasten your seat belts....

What you are saying is very possible. In the US they added 6 to 10 trillion to an already huge debt of at least 26 trillion, not including nearly 10 trillion from the foolhardy Iraq and Afghan campaigns that were done totally off the books, due to the "sneaky Cheney congressional provision". Can that kind of debt be sustained? Perhaps the shutdown was deliberate. Perhaps they want a great depression? It will take years to recover from a second shutdown in the US.

 

Let us hope it does not happen here. The Thai economy is already crippled and tourism will take years to recover.

 

I predict it will not recover to its former levels in our lifetimes. So much has changed. So many opportunities lost. So much incompetence. Pipat appears to be the least competent member of the administration.

[chilli42]

If they have any shame they should resign

[connda]

11 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand's top economic team to resign - media reports

Translated:
Thailand's top economic team realizes that they are standing on the deck of the Titanic due to economy destroying policies implemented by the PM, governors, and mayors and they plan to jump ship before the now hole riddled hulk slides to the bottom of the ocean taking everyone but themselves with it.

[ExpatOilWorker]

6 minutes ago, connda said:

Translated:
Thailand's top economic team realizes that they are standing on the deck of the Titanic due to economy destroying policies implemented by the PM, governors, and mayors and they plan to jump ship before the now hole riddled hulk slides to the bottom of the ocean taking everyone but themselves with it.

The mighty baht sure is getting softer.

 

[JonnyF]

2 hours ago, Trillian said:

Sure, nobody is saying there won't be falls in GDP or its components, the only difference between us is how much and how those falls are calculated. As said earlier your tourism slump of 20% isn't really 20% yet although it might be later, we don't know, today it's 3 months of 11.5% which is international tourism, what it might be later is another story that I wouldn't want to guess at.

You could quite easily guess (with a high degree of accuracy) but the reality of the situation doesn't fit your narrative. As there are no plans to allow tourists in for several months (especially following recent events with Egyptian soldiers) and it's already the middle of July, we can safely say it won't recover this year. What scenario could possibly allow it to recover? 

 

Exports were down 26% in Q2. This matches (within a couple of %) the export decline for the company I work for (domestic sales have also tanked) and our July is looking even worse. Unless you think the rest of the world's economy is going to recover in the next 5.5 months and start purchasing Thai products at 2019 levels then it would be safe to assume Q3 and Q4 will be similar or worse to Q2. These are the top 10 purchasers of Thai exports. Huge problems (politically and C19 related) in at least 4 of them. US and China top 2. India also in there. 

 

 

You can pass your rosy predictions off as optimism, but they just appear to be deliberately misleading rhetoric.

[connda]

2 hours ago, Rancid said:

There will likely be a world depression as opposed to recession. Almost every country has locked down and destroyed their economies, and now the media want more, they are screaming 2nd wave, what businesses survived the 1st will go under on the next lock down. And all for 99% of the population have mild or no symptoms.

World-wide, what do the various political leader who have turned into tin-pot dictators whose lockdown proclamations have destroyed the engines of commerce and business expect long-term?  "We're saving lives!" But at some point the economy reaches the point of no return, jobs are next to impossible to find, and finding food and shelter becomes the day-to-day imperative and not the fear of a virus with a 99.96% survival rate across all age groups.  Then surviving an economic depression and societal breakdown becomes something that will really start killing people.

Tip of the iceberg here imho.  You'll see government appointees bailing in droves in order to escape the blame and condemnation that will follow in the wake of the coming mega-depression. 

[Jester69]

Until the Military control is over nothing will change ......... even though technically Prime Minister Prayut is no longer in the Military ........ his mindset and leadership is still the same as before.

 

[86Tiger]

7 hours ago, chaihot said:

Do you really think people this high up in the food chain actually care?   ????

Absolutely!  The only thing "people this high up in the food chain" do actually care about is how they are perceived.  And no body wants to be identified as being in charge when the ship sinks.

[Rookiescot]

One think I can never seem to find out.

The Thai government raised a lot of cash by selling bonds.

Who bought them?

[mrfill]

5 hours ago, rocksniffer said:

Wait for it to pass, going to be long wait.

 

It is never going to pass, just lie low for a while. Once a virus is in the world it joins a very long list. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_virus_species  There have been suggestions that Covid19 may be an annual event, like flu. In my opinion the countries with the hardest lockdowns will suffer the worst economic hardship. And the knock on effects from economic disaster will kill way more people than Covid19 would. 

The bubonic plague is a virus. First seen in Europe in 1348. Last seen in a squirrel in Colorado in June 2020.

 

It could be a very long wait....

[Rookiescot]

1 minute ago, mrfill said:

The bubonic plague is a virus. First seen in Europe in 1348. Last seen in a squirrel in Colorado in June 2020.

 

It could be a very long wait....

What happened to the squirrel?

[Cake Monster]

3 hours ago, KhunG said:

Minor quibble.  Those are percents of exports, not GDP.  Exports are over two thirds of Thai GDP so the point you're making is correct. 

The values are for GDP

Re Trillion post

[Trillian]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

You could quite easily guess (with a high degree of accuracy) but the reality of the situation doesn't fit your narrative. As there are no plans to allow tourists in for several months (especially following recent events with Egyptian soldiers) and it's already the middle of July, we can safely say it won't recover this year. What scenario could possibly allow it to recover? 

 

Exports were down 26% in Q2. This matches (within a couple of %) the export decline for the company I work for (domestic sales have also tanked) and our July is looking even worse. Unless you think the rest of the world's economy is going to recover in the next 5.5 months and start purchasing Thai products at 2019 levels then it would be safe to assume Q3 and Q4 will be similar or worse to Q2. These are the top 10 purchasers of Thai exports. Huge problems (politically and C19 related) in at least 4 of them. US and China top 2. India also in there. 

 

 

You can pass your rosy predictions off as optimism, but they just appear to be deliberately misleading rhetoric.

Deliberately misleading rhetoric! First you had me being somebody else, then you had me being paid to talk up the Baht and the Thai economy and now you have me setting out deliberately misleading rhetoric....I'm not sure JonnyF that you and I are going to be able to debate the Thai economy, you just don't seem to want to allow that!

 

If you want to set out the future of the economy, and you have a crystal ball or are good at guessing, please be my guest, personally, that's not my thing. Sector performance is reported monthly and quarterly, when we have a few more months of reporting then I'd feel comfortable making a projection, but not at this stage, it's probably best we don't continue this exchange because we don't agree on the fundamental approach.

 

[mrfill]

6 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

What happened to the squirrel?

They were advised to keep well clear of the cats in Wyoming...

 

https://health.wyo.gov/plague-confirmed-in-johnson-county-cat/

[86Tiger]

9 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

What happened to the squirrel?

He's dead, Jim.

[Trillian]

2 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

The mighty baht sure is getting softer.

 

I don't know what that really means, it's about 80 satang in 18 days and corresponds to a fall in the Dollar Index from 97.54 to 96.21 over the same period....the timeframe is quite short so not exactly a trend I don't think, yet.

[Rookiescot]

4 minutes ago, 86Tiger said:

He's dead, Jim.

Oh did it have to have a sad ending?

I was hoping to hear it recovered, raised some kids and finally retired to Florida on a good pension.

[Redline]

13 hours ago, CorpusChristie said:

We dont have "mob unrest" in Thailand , thats a Western thing 

Thai history tells a different story-guess you haven’t been it Thailand too long-I live near government center remembering hearing explosions and gunshots regularly ????

[Dap]

21 hours ago, 86Tiger said:

No body wants to be left holding the bag.  It will not be pretty when all is said and done.

Ain't all that pretty now, but certain to get a lot more ... confusing (?) 

[Srikcir]

Resignation of BOT Governor should lead this shakeup.

[Dap]

6 hours ago, DirtyHarry55 said:

Don't worry the new Palang Pracharat Party leader Prawit is in charge now and I am sure will choose the best people for the jobs of spending the countries money.

Financial wizard that he is 

[rvaviator]

8 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Government needs qualified economists.  Why not apply?  They sorely need some help.

When was qualifications a requirement for joining governments  ???? . 

[crazykopite]

11 hours ago, yellowboat said:

When 78% of your GDP comes from foreign sources, and they no longer are buying, what can you do?

It's too late, but if cha cha had allowed more foreign investment and did not hassle tourists so MUCH, things may not be so bad.

 

 

There have been gains this week in the £ TransferWise is currently quoting 39.750 and I believe it will rise even further it’s not all doom and gloom

[rvaviator]

2 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

Oh did it have to have a sad ending?

I was hoping to hear it recovered, raised some kids and finally retired to Florida on a good pension.

and then got hit by C-19 ...

[Miami007]

15 hours ago, CorpusChristie said:

Thais have handled this quite sensibly , all working together to get through it .

You have done terribly , you lot riot and have civil unrest  and spread the virus , here in Thailand we just chilled out , sat at home and waited for it to pass 

I assume you have retirement income or are independently wealthy that you could sit and wait for things to pass.

Most people in the world- including Thailand- need to work to support themselves and their families. 

 

[Ironman1958]

Isn't Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana the same guy who was in charge of the Thai economy way-back-when and crashed it, then Thailand had to go to the IMF for a bailout?