Too-tight virus policy is strangling Thai economy, experts warn

[LEKPHUKET]

Good to also know we have people with brains.  Unfortunately the one who lead the country are brainless .

[Naamblar2014]

Meanwhile in Australia,  Up to 30,000 people packed Perth's Optus Stadium last night for the AFL showdown between Collingwood and Geelong,

 

With a capacity of 60,000 they are still showing caution by limiting only 30,000 people. Time will tell if this was a mistake or not.

[cmrichsw]

1 hour ago, mtls2005 said:

You are NEVER, EVER going to get 38 million tourists back. Give it up.

 

Breakeven is probably 30 million tourists. Anything less than that you'll lose money.

 

 

 

 

Mr know it all... 

[Trillian]

5 minutes ago, Naamblar2014 said:

Meanwhile in Australia,  Up to 30,000 people packed Perth's Optus Stadium last night for the AFL showdown between Collingwood and Geelong,

 

With a capacity of 60,000 they are still showing caution by limiting only 30,000 people. Time will tell if this was a mistake or not.

Sure, but who won?

[poohy]

47 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Most Thai people not want foreigner come thailand now. 

Especilally foreigner from countrys refuse mask, selfish. 

Up to us. 

 

Be stupid allow that. 

Money not important when you dead. 

 

Control covid= Welcome to Thailand. 

 

Eg Trump think “open” before control be good for economy. 

He wrong. Control covid THEN open economy. 

 

I not want foreigner come thailand now. Most people same. 

Sorry.

Up to us. 

 

Best thing can can happen for Thai economy is= other country’s control there covid. 

 

Situation not improve. It unimprove now. 

No thankyou. 

 

 

 

 

 

What if you are married to one....... like maybe you are?

 

Just askin!

[AndrewMciver]

1 hour ago, american2 said:

If the country wants to gamble...If tourists bring the virus back   how many more infections will they produce.

 

An effective testing system will help. 

 

Test every passenger at the airport. 

 

I can't fathom why countries that rely on tourism don't just invest in a testing regime at airports. Iceland, certain Caribbean countries are doing great stuff, really advanced. Dubai have a selective testing protocol which i don't completely agree with (namely get a test done at home, or do it at the airport on arrival). 

 

It's vital Thailand keep the country safe. A virus out of control, another lockdown, is going to hurt tourism anyways. You will get one chance at doing it correctly. 

[Naamblar2014]

6 minutes ago, Trillian said:

Sure, but who won?

 

[mike1967]

Thailand is NOT dealing with the whole problem. The easy part is shutting the borders to the world. The hard part is adapting to live with the virus. Has anyone heard of a single plan of how they plan to do this? I think I need to remind people that this virus is an Asian virus and it's us, the dirty farang, who've been suffering the most. I'm sure the Thai authorities are desperate to get their beloved Chinese back but just remember where all these diseases come from. If anything, it's the westerners who should be the angriest. People are going hungry and donations are slowing and will ultimately dry up. My feeling is that the people at the top are just fine but what about your own people? You can wait for a vaccine, which may never come, but a high percentage won't want to receive the vaccine until it's been proven over time. Take emotions out of the situation and wake up to reality. No economy can survive forever by shutting out the whole world. WHAT'S YOUR PLANS THAILAND?

[sezze]

52 minutes ago, brucegoniners said:

As long as people stay in quarantine for 14 days after arriving here I'm fine with that. But tourists aren't going to be able to do that. Most don't even get 2 week vacations.

 

It's a sad situation, but it would be sadder if Thailand was hit hard by the virus again and had to shut everything down. At least the local economy is open, if not for tourists.

 

I also think a tourist bubble should be strongly considered. Have an area that only tourists can go and that includes hospitality workers who serve them. Of course once someone makes a mistake all hell could break loose.

Im willing to go for a 2 week quarantine if it is reasonable rates and no additional rules .  Like i said , forget about the nrs you had before , it's a new world right now , its about keeping things alive . Theres more people like me , im sure , we get a test , spend 2 weeks in quarantine for lets say 20-30k baht , get another test and you are good to go .

[Charlie Jones 1957]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Yes, its flowing outwards for those wanting in, while the economy and a new economic team will make promises at trying to stem the flow of outward capital. The Baht is shrinking slowly from its lofty level.

Good news 

[The Deerhunter]

1 hour ago, DoctorG said:

I prefer the Trace, Isolate, and Test policy.

I prefer test, Trace and then isolate, in that order. The way you have put it, it spells........, oh yes. 555.

[TKDfella]

And what did the PM admit the other day when referring to the Egyptian soldier case? Stop thinking about the Dollars and think Logistics because tourism anywhere is a little way ahead at present.

[DLock]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

prominent local investor Niwes Hemvachiravarakorn said on Thursday.

 

I stopped reading at that quote.

 

Whilst there is no doubt Thailand and all countries are struggling financially, but an "investor" who puts money above life itself, is not who I would listen to regarding opening up...

[seancbk]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Initially, we could limit foreign arrivals as per the capacity of the healthcare system to handle new cases of perhaps 20-30 a day.

As long as it's 20-30 high end tourists who are staying in 100,000 baht a night rooms. 

[owl sees all]

4 hours ago, ezzra said:

Until and when a vaccine will be found there are no other safe ways to contain the virus and stam the pandemic, if there was, every other country in the world would have done it already... so do what many others governments did, pay and support people and business to sit home... 

A vaccine (not that anyone on TVF would want it) cannot prevent the C-19. It will mutate into C-21 or C22 and render the vaccine only good as a personal GPS.

 

The best thing it to build up your immune system with lots of good stuff and go out and catch it.

Edited July 17, 2020 by owl sees all

[onekoolguy]

1 hour ago, AhFarangJa said:

Certainly not the case here in Hua Hin. Last night at least 90% of Thais were walking along without masks, only putting them on when they had to enter any premises. As for social distancing, lots of local restaurants with eight round a table all eating from the same four dishes on the table. I think everyone is getting tired of the rules and restrictions. 

I think that a lot more than 10% are wearing masks? Wearing them is hot and uncomfortable but I do, at least when around other people. It does seem a little unnecessary when there has not been a case in the general population for 50 days?

[d2b2]

So we have a lot of commenters in agreement with the economist and investor quoted in the article. Given that neither of them have a medical degree or any science background (likely the TV commenters don’t either), I think it is wise to assume that it is only greed and personal self interest talking. Until the experts in the medical and science community are quoted saying it is safe to begin tourism again, those with out the specific educational background and experience should simply keep their armchair opinions to themselves (and put on a mask).

Edited July 17, 2020 by d2b2
Deletion

[Searat7]

They really need to develop a good testing program at the airports with quick tests paid for by passengers....then maybe have people follow up with a second test a week or two later at a hospital if they think it’s needed. Quarantine program will not work with large numbers of people. They talk about tourists returning in September but no mention of those with Elite visas or retirement visas without Thai spouse. These groups should be next ; hopefully by then the government will have developed workable plans....

[Rookiescot]

10 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

A vaccine (not that anyone on TVF would want it) cannot prevent the C-19. It will mutate into C-21 or C22 and render the vaccine only good as a personal GPS.

 

The best thing it to build up your immune system with lots of good stuff and go out and catch it.

Beer.

Beer cures everything.

[ChakaKhan]

4 hours ago, CLS said:

Only the urge to make money will bring them to reason.
But Thais have been brainwashed for 4 months and the evil foreigner was made a scapegoat for their misery. What will it take to reverse this process?

A Hansum Falang such as myself????..Right out of a soapy, so no longer dirty!!

[Cake Monster]

56 minutes ago, Henryford said:

I am surprised many companies aren't taking this opportunity to move out of Thailand to Vietnam/Cambodia/India etc.

Its not quite the same as just packing a Suitcase and Boarding a Flight.

These kind of things take time and Money to organise

Maybe Q3 and Q4, and certainly next Year will see some business,s move their production and supply chains to their Home Countries.

Covid  has been way too disruptive to their  Business,s, and closer to home equals more control of things.

[eeworldwide]

5 hours ago, Kadilo said:

Here we go. The tide is starting to turn. 

Someone expresses a commonly held opinion ( and that's all it is) and the tide is starting to turn? I don't think so.
Most Thais and foreign residents have thought this for ages.

 

 

[eeworldwide]

Forgive me if I'm being obtuse, but unless we do away with quarantine, who will come?

And from whence in general will all these tourists come anyway?

I'm not saying he's wrong - but I'm genuinely intrigued.

[Benmart]

2 hours ago, american2 said:

If the country wants to gamble...If tourists bring the virus back   how many more infections will they produce.

Likely far fewer than are killed on Thai roadways. Not much of an alarm about those deaths.

[pixelaoffy]

Paranoia that drips from the top and scares the masses ! The economic desert and deaths will far outweigh anything any covid will if attitudes dont change !but hey in Thailand when ever has 'Anything' ever changed with respect to approach to dealing with problems !! Sledgehammer time 

Edited July 17, 2020 by pixelaoffy

[JCauto]

2 hours ago, AhFarangJa said:

Certainly not the case here in Hua Hin. Last night at least 90% of Thais were walking along without masks, only putting them on when they had to enter any premises. As for social distancing, lots of local restaurants with eight round a table all eating from the same four dishes on the table. I think everyone is getting tired of the rules and restrictions. 

Will they get tired of being on ventilators? Will they get tired of raising their kids in a single-parent family? Will they get tired when Gramps and Grandma aren't around to provide free day care for their kids?

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, brucegoniners said:

As long as people stay in quarantine for 14 days after arriving here I'm fine with that. But tourists aren't going to be able to do that. Most don't even get 2 week vacations.

Additionally, most will not have the money to even fly here and visit.  International Tourism as I see it is a dead prospect at least for another year or so.  People need to get back to work to make up for the losses they incurred during the past 5 months since they started loosing there jobs.  Talked to my grandfather, those folks like him in the US who are on SS and received the government $1200, went out and bought freezers and stocked up on beef and other meats to carry them down the road.  His generation, he is now 92, have always lived very frugally, and know how to stretch that dollar.  He would love to come for a visit, but still has cows to milk, and a ranch to run.  He said that unless a stiff policy is put in place the world over then we are all cooked....

[SiSePuede419]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

The government should focus on the “trace, test and isolate (TTI)” policy so that foreigners can be gradually welcomed back to the country, he added.

 

Close, but not "on brand" enough for the target tourist demographic.

 

Should be...

Test, Isolate, Trace (T)I(T)

????

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, JCauto said:

Will they get tired of being on ventilators? Will they get tired of raising their kids in a single-parent family? Will they get tired when Gramps and Grandma aren't around to provide free day care for their kids?

The answer to all is No, life goes on and there are others to take the place of those departed.

[geriatrickid]

1 hour ago, rupert the bear said:

this  economy is doomed  if it carries on much longer,its tourism andmanufacturing ,millions of jobs will go forever and thousands of small and mid size businesses with them.even some large ones are moving on or closing down,this economy is the  most open to the fall out in the region.people will never get their jobs back or new ones.ask around,even the ones that will reopen will take fewer staff in many cases.it puts millions on the scrape heap with no future and the govt will do nothing for them.go home and scratch about in the earth is their solution.the other options to open up ,do it regionally ,theres some countries with low rates vietnam,hk,taiwan cambodia,s korea, malaysia,singapore[its construction crews only]oz nz and then later EU countries,its only way out.i feel theres many cases here a resevoir .they wont test so they wont find it ,chinese were here in massive nos till way past they should have been the govt wouldnt push them out come what may,then they sent all the people home quickly the bus stations were packed,ihear of cases in the villages and deaths that are written up as pneumonis,those deaths are way higher than previous yrs.face and lies ,its the same thing so.....trace and trak and get a move on or this place will be picked dry when i t does open ,by whom yep Xis crew

How is the economy doomed if thailand  continues to exercise common sense and is prudent?

How exactly  will manufacturing jobs "go forever" if the tourism sector is not tossed wide open? Tourism has nothing to do with international demand for Thailand's products.  You are obviously unaware that Thailand has a significant opportunity to capture some of the market in consumer products as  western countries try to diversify supply chains and not depend on china. Thailand's manufacturing sector is open for business as are its  financial services and agricultural sectors. Retail is open. Restaurants  are open. The only part of the economy not fully open is international tourism.  Yes, some vested interests  want more.

Too bad. 95% of the country's economy cannot be put at risk because some wealthy people are taking a hit.

 

Thailand doesn't have much control over international tourist demand. International air travel is on hold and consumers do not wish to travel. The countries with people who might travel are the countries which were associated with  spreading Covid19 in thailand originally (Italy, France, China). Russia, India and the USA are in the midst of massive infections and you want to welcome their nationals into Thailand?

 

Thailand is doing as good as can be expected in the circumstances. Some people are hurting, but overall, the government strategy is working. They should hold firm for another 2-3 months.