2 minutes ago, paulikens said:

@GAZZPA no it isnt. you and @Destiny1990 are talking nonsense,as i put in a previous post. people in europe are flying and will carry on flying with or without a vaccine including asia if they do open up. were not all wussies!!

There are a few travelling, there are always exceptions. But only a fool takes the exceptional examples and regards it as the current situation for the majority.. The tourist industry is on its knees, where have you been?

8 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

This is the third time i have posted this, but it is still quite relevant.

 

I think it is time for Thailand to re-evaluate its Virus Response policy.

 

Thailand has been following a 'Zero-Tolerance' policy, but I think it is time to move to a 'Managed-Tolerance' policy. I make this suggestion based mainly on two factors; I think it is inevitable that the virus will return to Thailand and a calm, managed response is more effective than hysteria. Secondly, the economic damage being done to millions is more harmful than the virus itself and needs to be addressed sooner rather than later.

 

We recently saw new cases in Vietnam, and I think that we are going to see new cases in Thailand soon; like most people I take the government's claim of zero cases with a grain of salt, although it seems like they have done a very good job overall. However, I don't think it can last. A better policy is to prepare, both medically and in terms of public opinion/education, for the return of the virus. Is this a radical idea? No, not really. Members will recall the phrase "flatten the curve", but perhaps a reminder is needed that the idea is to manage the virus so that the health system isn't overwhelmed; a policy of Zero Tolerance is incompatible with an open society and/or open economy. It is time to re-enforce the precautions needed, but also to allow for an economic re-start which includes outsiders/foreigners. A final point; humanity's best minds and a boat-load of resources are being thrown at the problem. This global effort, propelled by the power of competition, is expected to produce a vaccine either this year or early next year while treatments are being developed and refined daily; we as a species are going to beat this scourge, and relatively soon.

 

The economic damage being done to Thailand is immense. Yes, I know that we don't hear about it too much, but there is a reason for that. The people talking in the (not quite free) Media are almost all in a 'Virus-Proof' economic situation; they aren't directly affected so they don't feel the urgency of fixing the problem. Firm numbers are difficult to come by, but it seems around 6-9 million Thais are very badly hurt by the economic fall-out of the virus, and those people need to be both helped and heard. The damage done to these people is egregious and growing worse; some government support is being withdrawn, the option of 'Go Back to the Farm' isn't really possible anymore (and not a great idea regardless), and they will soon need more food and rent support to survive. Further, many aren't well-educated and don't have transferable skills, so their options are limited. Finally, even before Covid-19, their economic situation was in decline; it is in free-fall now and they can't be ignored. Simply put, plans for their economic regeneration must to be formulated now and implemented soon.

 

When people are hungry, all bets are off.

 

How to proceed?

 

It is the beginning of August; continue/speed up the current repatriation policy 'as is', but ramp up the public education aspect of change. Announce that by October 1st (perhaps Nov. 1st?) that the airspace around Thailand will be open to commercial air travel, long-term tourists (Snow-Birds who 'winter' here), remaining residents and retirees will be allowed to return with a few restrictions (test before boarding or on arrival, reasonable insurance, self-isolation at home on arrival, etc. BUT no mandatory state quarantine), implement common sense visa issuance (sorry Floridians and Texans!) and most of all prepare the Thai people for the idea that although there will be cases of the virus, they will be managed, and the benefits of re-opening are a risk worth taking. Yes, the end of mandatory state quarantine is essential if this is going to work; I believe that the long-term visitors will respect the self-isolation policy and Thailand's million strong public health volunteers can monitor them, but they won't come if they are going to be locked up. Moreover, the selection of the residents/retirees and 'Snow-Birds' as an initial group isn't accidental; these people already know the Kingdom and understand life within it, are good 'testers' of a new system, have a lot of money to spend, and can be excellent examples of a working policy of re-opening. Finally, allowing these kinds of visitors would build confidence, test whether short-term tourists could actually visit (I think not yet, but...), and help protect the tourism infrastructure from further and/or irreparable damage.

 

There are those who will argue that it is better to keep the borders closed and wait this out, and I honestly have trouble arguing against that idea (I don't want to catch the <deleted> thing). However, those who make that point rarely take the next step; what do you do with the 6-9 million people damaged by the current policy? Will those that advocate for closed borders take in homeless people? If so, how many? One family? Two families? Three? Will those that advocate for closed borders give up a percentage of their salaries/pensions to help? If so, how much? 25%? 35%? 45%? Will those that advocate for closed borders pay school fees and related costs for all the children of unemployed/underemployed parents? How many kids? One? Five? Twenty? The question isn't merely an intellectual exercise, it has real-world implications and consequences. 

 

If you want those 6-9 million people to sacrifice for you, what are you going to sacrifice for them?

 

To sum up, I think that the question of whether or not to keep the border closed is incomplete. The question should be: if you keep the border closed, then what will you do for the 6-9 million people economically-eviscerated by the response to the virus? Opening the Kingdom to visitors in November for the high season would likely see a few cases of the virus, but the Thai medical system can handle that (it did before, right?) until a vaccine is widely available. It would begin the process of re-starting the tourism industry in Thailand (20% of GDP!!!), begin the process of building trust again, re-start the employment of huge numbers, give Thailand a 'leg up' on future tourism business in the region, and alleviate some of the damage done to the poorest in the Kingdom. The alternative is a policy of rot, idleness, atrophy and decline with an indefinite timeline. 

 

History is replete with examples of people hiding behind walls for protection, but it rarely ever works (especially against something the size of a virus); see the 'Maginot Line', the Great Wall of China, the Berlin Wall, and more. History shows that a combination of pro-active tactics coupled with reasonable, layered defenses provides a better outcome to almost any problem.

 

The question is; is anyone listening? Or are public officials just spewing nonsense to get their name in the paper?

 

I've given you an outline on what and how to do it; can you take it from here?

 

 

Hello! Anybody listening? Oh well, better luck next time.  The problem is that there is far too much logic in what you are saying. But please do not stop.  

 

8 hours ago, webfact said:

Under this plan only those from countries deemed to have the virus under control would be allowed entry and they would then be subject to quarantine and severe restrictions on where they are allowed to go.

"Severely" restricted travel by incoming tourists to where? This proposal is myopic and doomed to failure. Do Thai officials even understand what tourists want? WOW.

 

Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the former. -Albert Einstein

8 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

US has it under control - vaccine by Nov 3rd.. Biggly xx

 

straight from the horse's mouth ????

You call Trump a horse ?

Quote

Quote

Under this plan only those from countries deemed to have the virus under control would be allowed entry and they would then be subject to quarantine and severe restrictions on where they are allowed to go. 

Who is going to accept this? to go to jail/quarantine hotel for 14 days and be subject to other restrictions afterwards ?

 

They live in their own world. Noboby will travel to Thailand with these conditions. We are not that stupid. They are.

2 minutes ago, victorpeeke said:

 

 

2 minutes ago, victorpeeke said:

 

I think everybody already understands all this, this is exactly what happening in many countries. Your extremely long post is not a revelation fella.. there are smarter people then you and i that understand the balancing act of economic recover and controlling the spread of the virus. It's the challenge that has been discussed a million times before your post.. the issue i see in Thailand is they need to stop advertising how wonderful their virus free country is and how amazing they are for achieving it and start focusing on how they are going to stop people from starving whilst the tourist industry is broken... i think the press releases about hoe clever they are being virus free are just a silly diversion because they dont know what to do.. however looking at the amount of people who post on here waving the Thai flag and getting sucked into the country comparison thing the diversion does seem to work.

8 hours ago, NE1 said:

 

Have Europe and the countries mentioned got Covid under control now ?

Did i miss something ?

Well Austria, Slovakia, Czech Republic, have it under control and Slovenia is dropping as is Croatia. I do believe all these countries are listed as Europe. In fact these countries have been commended for shutting down early and making face masks obligatory. In Slovakia you still have to wear face masks in shops and in public transport, just as in Austria.

So yes. You missed loads my friend.

3 hours ago, eeworldwide said:

I'd be unwilling to take a vaccine thats not been around for a couple of years anyway.

If it meant that I’d be allowed to travel again, I’d take a vaccine that had the same odds of killing me as a round of Russian roulette...

6 minutes ago, Raphus said:

Well Austria, Slovakia, Czech Republic, have it under control and Slovenia is dropping as is Croatia. I do believe all these countries are listed as Europe. In fact these countries have been commended for shutting down early and making face masks obligatory. In Slovakia you still have to wear face masks in shops and in public transport, just as in Austria.

So yes. You missed loads my friend.

All of Europe has this under control now, not virus free but under control. Its South America, India and USA that are struggling right now.

It's amazing to see stupid information passed off as relevant, factual and accurate.   There must be a special Thai government dept to co-ordinate this verbal rubbish!

8 hours ago, ChipButty said:

50% discount on all beers you might get a few takers

 

 50%  discount on Bar fines, you might get a few sex tourists .

  Sorry , i forgot prostitution is illegal , in the biggest brothel in the World .. 

Where did the covid19 virus originate ........... lest we forget?? Amazing Thailand eh? The first country nominated for preferential treatment is China!! What are these people in govt. smoking I ask myself??? All this chaos & confusion, not to mention the millions of lives around the world that have been affected by this tragedy, plus all the fatalities too! ......... & China is being welcomed back with open arms!! I just don't get it ...... does anyone on this forum, if so please explain??? China needs to answer to the world for this, but it seems as if it will be "swept under the carpet". I for one think they should be tried by an International Court & made to answer for their sins. 

Why must it be 100 million? Why not 73 or 86

1 hour ago, paulikens said:

@GAZZPA no it isnt. you and @Destiny1990 are talking nonsense,as i put in a previous post. people in europe are flying and will carry on flying with or without a vaccine including asia if they do open up. were not all wussies!!

Ehh a reality check but lately most Europeans avoid going even outside of their hometowns let alone crossing a landborder and now here u are babbling about large groups of European holiday makers eager to go in airplanes doing intercontinental flights for to explore Asia Hahahaha ???????? .. I call it fake news !!!

If the baht was devalued to 40-$1 you would have tourists begging for that quarantine deal.

Lets see what happens in Sturgis over the next few weeks, over 200,000 folks from all over the US demonstrating their freedom, (throw-up), rising around on Harlies all unmasked. If they can pull it off then maybe Thailand has a chance

4 hours ago, VBF said:

Still 3 X the price of my usual hotel in Pattaya (and it IS a decent place with good aircon WiFi, pool) I've been known to stay there for 3 months which of course attracts a good rate reduction.

Eating all your meals in the hotel when on holiday?

Don't think so. ????

 

First, most of the ASQ hotels are in Bangkok, not Pattaya, so you don't get Pattaya rates.

Second, you're not eating ALL your meals in the hotel, just for the first two weeks of a couple months stay.

Third, if you wanna play, you gotta pay...  

Otherwise, have fun in your virus infested homeland.... 

10 hours ago, webfact said:

Under this plan only those from countries deemed to have the virus under control would be allowed entry and they would then be subject to quarantine and severe restrictions on where they are allowed to go. 

Which means foreign tourist will avoid Thailand.  Do these people completely lack common sense?  (rhetorical question, I know the answer). 
"We want tourists but those dirty foreigners will need to be quarantined and submit to severe restrictions on where they are allowed to go if they plan to come here!!!  Ha! We'll show them!!!" 
I know! Let hand out 100 Billion THB in loans!  That will solve the problem.  <until tourists fail to show up, business don't make any money, and then are saddled with 100 Billion THB in loans that need to be paid.>  That plan has a short shelf-life before in implodes taking what is left to the industry with it as well as leaving the Thai government holding on to billions of THB in loans that will never be paid back. 
Great plan. 

2 hours ago, GAZZPA said:

There are a few travelling, there are always exceptions. But only a fool takes the exceptional examples and regards it as the current situation for the majority.. The tourist industry is on its knees, where have you been?

@GAZZPA yep just a few

1 hour ago, Destiny1990 said:

Ehh a reality check but lately most Europeans avoid going even outside of their hometowns let alone crossing a landborder and now here u are babbling about large groups of European holiday makers eager to go in airplanes doing intercontinental flights for to explore Asia Hahahaha ???????? .. I call it fake news !!!

@Destiny1990 yea i can see that most europeans are avoiding going outside of their hometowns....

6 hours ago, kamma said:

The requirement for quarantine is not unique to Thailand. Most countries in Europe are requiring tourists to quarantine upon arrival. 

 

6 hours ago, kamma said:

In the UK you can do the quarantine at home.   Those of us with properties in Thailand might me more prepared to come back if they could serve the quarantime period in their own property.

 

 

5 minutes ago, NeoDinosaw said:

 

 

Great idea but it’s getting people to conform, whilst there is self quarantine in the UK they will only be a .imited number who they will check that they are self quarantining.

6 hours ago, rct99q said:

 

I ....... believe .... there are enough people around the world who wouldnt find spending $1000 and up on a quarantine hotel and losing two weeks as a hardship.Medical Tourists, the pot is endless.

 

6 hours ago, rct99q said:

I don't see too many peorple wanting to spend 2 weeks in a hotel room - and not allowewd out during that time.  Many sane people might go mad in solitary confinement !

 

 

11 minutes ago, NeoDinosaw said:

 

 

No quarantine in Europe if you arrive from the Green Zone . By the way Thailand is one of the Countries in the Green Zone and Thais can travel to Europe without beeing subject to Quarantine ????

11 hours ago, NE1 said:

 

Have Europe and the countries mentioned got Covid under control now ?

Did i miss something ?

Well, the US certainly doesn't! By most measures its the worst in the world. How about its neighbour to the North, where it is at least somewhat under control, or New Zealand where it is virtually non-existent?

 

Thailand has backed itself into a corner over Covid19, their way to manage it was go into total lockdown, close the borders and quarantine for every arrival. Now they don’t know how to move on from it, people will say fantastic Thailand have contained it if you believe the numbers. Other countries are trying to manage it realising economically you cannot continue in lockdown, if a spike arises in Thailand they would go into sheer panic mode like they did in Rayong and have no idea how to deal with it.

3 hours ago, Enoon said:

 

"Under control" means having it within manageable limits, being able to quickly identify and isolate outbreaks, preventing it from consuming an "unacceptable" level of healthcare resource.

 

The same as applies to any disease outbreak.

 

It is not the same as Eradication, which is what many seem to think it means.

 

We live with it and carry on, as we had to (until an oral vaccine enabled near eradication) with outbreaks of Polio.

 

Problem for Thailand is that it is unable to contemplate a situation in which it has to concede what its "controllers" know full well.....that it only has, like everyone else, a tenuous control.

 

Hence all the lies, obfuscation and unworkable schemes, as it continues its desperate efforts to create the "image" of eradication.

 

The "leadership" will see the people starving before it abandons its self-delusion of golden, glittering, exceptional.....perfection.

 

 

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Enoon said:

 

"Under control" means having it within manageable limits, being able to quickly identify and isolate outbreaks, preventing it from consuming an "unacceptable" level of healthcare resource.

 

The same as applies to any disease outbreak.

 

It is not the same as Eradication, which is what many seem to think it means.

 

We live with it and carry on, as we had to (until an oral vaccine enabled near eradication) with outbreaks of Polio.

 

Problem for Thailand is that it is unable to contemplate a situation in which it has to concede what its "controllers" know full well.....that it only has, like everyone else, a tenuous control.

 

Hence all the lies, obfuscation and unworkable schemes, as it continues its desperate efforts to create the "image" of eradication.

 

The "leadership" will see the people starving before it abandons its self-delusion of golden, glittering, exceptional.....perfection.

 

 

 

 

So looking at the latest figures, would you call having 6090 new cases in one day "within manageable limits" and an  acceptable level for your healthcare resources?

 

Would you call a total of more than 5,000,000 (5 million) "within manageable limits" and an acceptable level for your healthcare resources?

 

And just to wander slightly off topic, from the BBC News:-

 

"The postponement of tens of thousands of hospital procedures is putting the lives of people with long-term heart conditions at risk, according to the British Heart Foundation. The coronavirus pandemic has created a backlog which would only get larger as patients waited for care, it said."

 

(The UK has had 308,413 cases, and 46,413 deaths, which is why I say that similarly to the USA, it IS NOT under control, it IS NOT "within manageable limits" and IS NOT "within an acceptable level for their health resources", hence the number of operations/procedures that have been put "on the back burner" as a result.)

 

56 minutes ago, paulikens said:

@Destiny1990 yea i can see that most europeans are avoiding going outside of their hometowns....

Don’t believe me and also these airlines claiming that their revenues  are down with at least 80% are all liars too.. hardly anyone from Europe is interested going to asia under these circumstances only the guys who have a family waiting there !!

12 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

This is the third time i have posted this, but it is still quite relevant.

 

I think it is time for Thailand to re-evaluate its Virus Response policy.

 

Thailand has been following a 'Zero-Tolerance' policy, but I think it is time to move to a 'Managed-Tolerance' policy. I make this suggestion based mainly on two factors; I think it is inevitable that the virus will return to Thailand and a calm, managed response is more effective than hysteria. Secondly, the economic damage being done to millions is more harmful than the virus itself and needs to be addressed sooner rather than later.

 

We recently saw new cases in Vietnam, and I think that we are going to see new cases in Thailand soon; like most people I take the government's claim of zero cases with a grain of salt, although it seems like they have done a very good job overall. However, I don't think it can last. A better policy is to prepare, both medically and in terms of public opinion/education, for the return of the virus. Is this a radical idea? No, not really. Members will recall the phrase "flatten the curve", but perhaps a reminder is needed that the idea is to manage the virus so that the health system isn't overwhelmed; a policy of Zero Tolerance is incompatible with an open society and/or open economy. It is time to re-enforce the precautions needed, but also to allow for an economic re-start which includes outsiders/foreigners. A final point; humanity's best minds and a boat-load of resources are being thrown at the problem. This global effort, propelled by the power of competition, is expected to produce a vaccine either this year or early next year while treatments are being developed and refined daily; we as a species are going to beat this scourge, and relatively soon.

 

The economic damage being done to Thailand is immense. Yes, I know that we don't hear about it too much, but there is a reason for that. The people talking in the (not quite free) Media are almost all in a 'Virus-Proof' economic situation; they aren't directly affected so they don't feel the urgency of fixing the problem. Firm numbers are difficult to come by, but it seems around 6-9 million Thais are very badly hurt by the economic fall-out of the virus, and those people need to be both helped and heard. The damage done to these people is egregious and growing worse; some government support is being withdrawn, the option of 'Go Back to the Farm' isn't really possible anymore (and not a great idea regardless), and they will soon need more food and rent support to survive. Further, many aren't well-educated and don't have transferable skills, so their options are limited. Finally, even before Covid-19, their economic situation was in decline; it is in free-fall now and they can't be ignored. Simply put, plans for their economic regeneration must to be formulated now and implemented soon.

 

When people are hungry, all bets are off.

 

How to proceed?

 

It is the beginning of August; continue/speed up the current repatriation policy 'as is', but ramp up the public education aspect of change. Announce that by October 1st (perhaps Nov. 1st?) that the airspace around Thailand will be open to commercial air travel, long-term tourists (Snow-Birds who 'winter' here), remaining residents and retirees will be allowed to return with a few restrictions (test before boarding or on arrival, reasonable insurance, self-isolation at home on arrival, etc. BUT no mandatory state quarantine), implement common sense visa issuance (sorry Floridians and Texans!) and most of all prepare the Thai people for the idea that although there will be cases of the virus, they will be managed, and the benefits of re-opening are a risk worth taking. Yes, the end of mandatory state quarantine is essential if this is going to work; I believe that the long-term visitors will respect the self-isolation policy and Thailand's million strong public health volunteers can monitor them, but they won't come if they are going to be locked up. Moreover, the selection of the residents/retirees and 'Snow-Birds' as an initial group isn't accidental; these people already know the Kingdom and understand life within it, are good 'testers' of a new system, have a lot of money to spend, and can be excellent examples of a working policy of re-opening. Finally, allowing these kinds of visitors would build confidence, test whether short-term tourists could actually visit (I think not yet, but...), and help protect the tourism infrastructure from further and/or irreparable damage.

 

There are those who will argue that it is better to keep the borders closed and wait this out, and I honestly have trouble arguing against that idea (I don't want to catch the <deleted> thing). However, those who make that point rarely take the next step; what do you do with the 6-9 million people damaged by the current policy? Will those that advocate for closed borders take in homeless people? If so, how many? One family? Two families? Three? Will those that advocate for closed borders give up a percentage of their salaries/pensions to help? If so, how much? 25%? 35%? 45%? Will those that advocate for closed borders pay school fees and related costs for all the children of unemployed/underemployed parents? How many kids? One? Five? Twenty? The question isn't merely an intellectual exercise, it has real-world implications and consequences. 

 

If you want those 6-9 million people to sacrifice for you, what are you going to sacrifice for them?

 

To sum up, I think that the question of whether or not to keep the border closed is incomplete. The question should be: if you keep the border closed, then what will you do for the 6-9 million people economically-eviscerated by the response to the virus? Opening the Kingdom to visitors in November for the high season would likely see a few cases of the virus, but the Thai medical system can handle that (it did before, right?) until a vaccine is widely available. It would begin the process of re-starting the tourism industry in Thailand (20% of GDP!!!), begin the process of building trust again, re-start the employment of huge numbers, give Thailand a 'leg up' on future tourism business in the region, and alleviate some of the damage done to the poorest in the Kingdom. The alternative is a policy of rot, idleness, atrophy and decline with an indefinite timeline. 

 

History is replete with examples of people hiding behind walls for protection, but it rarely ever works (especially against something the size of a virus); see the 'Maginot Line', the Great Wall of China, the Berlin Wall, and more. History shows that a combination of pro-active tactics coupled with reasonable, layered defenses provides a better outcome to almost any problem.

 

The question is; is anyone listening? Or are public officials just spewing nonsense to get their name in the paper?

 

I've given you an outline on what and how to do it; can you take it from here?

 

 

 

A superb analysis. Thank you, sir.