I've seen the grim reality of Thailand without tourists – and it isn't pretty

[Deli]

5 hours ago, Pilotman said:

Think on this, over 40 million Thais live in rural locations that never see a tourist and don't need them for their local economy.  Don't get tourism out of proportion.  It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand. Watch this space. It may all virtually end and I dont think that many Thais will cry any tears if it does. At the very least, it may be confined to a few restricted areas only, such as Phuket and Pattaya. 

You better change your nick to "Caveman"

[SteveB2]

5 hours ago, Pilotman said:

Think on this, over 40 million Thais live in rural locations that never see a tourist and don't need them for their local economy.  Don't get tourism out of proportion.  It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand. Watch this space. It may all virtually end and I dont think that many Thais will cry any tears if it does. At the very least, it may be confined to a few restricted areas only, such as Phuket and Pattaya. 

The elephant in the living room is not inbound Tourism - though that is bad enough.

 

The COVID-19 pandemic's effects will likely lead to 10 million tourism sector employees being out of work at the end of Q4-2020.

 

One should note - that although the financial contributions by Thai tourism to GDP is not massive, it employs a disproportionately large number of the Thai population. Most of whom do not have a high level of education and would find it difficult to find other work.

 

The real worry is that business leaders from industrial companies meeting at local chambers of commerce are 'all doom and gloom' worrying about a predicted 50% drop in Thailand's Industrial output by Q4-2020. Now that IS massive...

[utalkin2me]

I do not even think it is important. Businesses fail and thrive every day. Covid will open up new avenues and income streams. If anything i think "mix ups" like this are healthy.

 

What the real travesty is are these huge chunks of time that are being subtracted from lives. Everyone is living with handcuffs. Imagine for example if these were the last few years of your life. 

[bkk6060]

32 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

The sewers of Pattaya will provide a great backdrop to the story your going to tell about how far 600 baht goes now wont they.

Well, I am not going to tell the story, but it sounds like you have thought about a possible plan to make it work for you.  

[Pilotman]

2 minutes ago, SteveB2 said:

The elephant in the living room is not inbound Tourism - though that is bad enough.

 

The COVID-19 pandemic's effects will likely lead to 10 million tourism sector employees being out of work at the end of Q4-2020.

 

One should note - that although the financial contributions by Thai tourism to GDP is not massive, it employs a disproportionately large number of the Thai population. Most of whom do not have a high level of education and would find it difficult to find other work.

 

The real worry is that business leaders from industrial companies meeting at local chambers of commerce are 'all doom and gloom' worrying about a predicted 50% drop in Thailand's Industrial output by Q4-2020. Now that IS massive...

That is true.   If a re alignment of the economy is what is being planned, and i believe that it is, then it's going to mean a lot of pain for a lot of people in the medium term, but the Generals  don't mind that. The poor just stay poor and the rich get richer.  It was ever thus. 

[3 minus 2]

5 hours ago, Surelynot said:

You are missing the point.....that tourism money flows into the government coffers.....if it stops you will all be worse off regardless of how little you have been affected currently......funds will either not be available or you will have to pay more tax.

Or as per what every other government is doing...increasing the gnd.. no biggie,  look at japanes  figures, it's the 'easy' option

[rumak]

2 minutes ago, from the home of CC said:

It is my opinion that in the long run they may find themselves a lot happier not having to babysit drunks and sex customers. There will be some adjustment pains with the easy money disappearing but they will come out of it stronger and better country for their children to grow up in..

As an idealist there is a lot to agree with  your post.   IMO  the reality is that sex is such a universal magnet that not just drunks and lowlifes are found scraping around for it.   Jeffrey Epstein's group are the elite,  and there are many layers in between.   Movies, internet, commercials, all feature  sex.

 

Thailand does stand out for the magnitude of its willing participants in the pay for play dept.  Hiding it behind closed doors ( ie  dating sites)  or other media outlets does present a better image.  But i do not think that the number of "children" that will choose easy money over working for 350 baht a day will decrease.       I actually believe that due to the internet the type of person that is on the game has actually grown in variety  ( age, education, position).    No longer just the barefoot country girls

 

 

 

[dunroaming]

18 minutes ago, from the home of CC said:

Yes it seems to be primarily the foreigners who think Thailand lives or dies with tourists. It is my opinion that in the long run they may find themselves a lot happier not having to babysit drunks and sex customers. There will be some adjustment pains with the easy money disappearing but they will come out of it stronger and better country for their children to grow up in..

It should also be noted that tourism in Thailand is changing, with China and India picking up the slack left by the dwindling western tourists.  The focus should therefore be on what their requirements will be.

[rumak]

9 minutes ago, utalkin2me said:

What the real travesty is are these huge chunks of time that are being subtracted from lives. Everyone is living with handcuffs. Imagine for example if these were the last few years of your life. 

55555555555555   many on here do not need to imagine.   

[ukrules]

5 hours ago, Pilotman said:

It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand.

Even if it's exactly 18% then that's total economic destruction if it's gone.

[natway09]

Any business that caters for tourists or regular stay farangs (folks that come 2 or 3 times a year for

anything from 2 weeks to 2 months are very quiet in Bangkok.

The Thai restaurants that cater for locals are starting to get busy again.

The massive infrastructure by both private & business operators mean that they will hurt if goes on much longer, but I agree that tourism is not the be and end all for Thailand.

Massive manufacturing & export is cranking up,  crops are still growing, so Thailand will certainly survive this

[worldfun]

4 hours ago, Henryford said:

The baht will never weaken while the western economies are printing trillions of funny money. If anything it will strengthen when the Dollar/Pound/Euro is worth as much as toilet paper.

did u check the eur/thb rate recently??

[luckyluke]

39 minutes ago, Pilotman said:

Okay.  It is only conjecture of course...

Interesting approach.

[crazykopite]

5 hours ago, Surelynot said:

The money might not feed directly to them in a rural economy, but where do you think the money comes from for schools, roads, hospitals?....18% is a huge blow to every part of the Thai economy.

GDP for Tourism in 2019 was 20% I don’t know where you get less than 18% it is estimated that GDP in Tourism for 2030 is 30%so it’s clear to me that the Thai economy relies on Tourism . On the island I live on I can tell you businesses from shops to resorts to small eating places are decimated even the ferries that run daily have reduced the number of sailings by 50%.

[Pilotman]

1 minute ago, crazykopite said:

GDP for Tourism in 2019 was 20% I don’t know where you get less than 18% it is estimated that GDP in Tourism for 2030 is 30%so it’s clear to me that the Thai economy relies on Tourism . On the island I live on I can tell you businesses from shops to resorts to small eating places are decimated even the ferries that run daily have reduced the number of sailings by 50%.

From google 

 

Tourism is an economic contributor to the Kingdom of Thailand. Estimates of tourism revenue directly contributing to the GDP of 12 trillion baht range from one trillion baht (2013) 2.53 trillion baht (2016), the equivalent of 9% to 17.7% of GDP.

[dunroaming]

4 minutes ago, natway09 said:

Any business that caters for tourists or regular stay farangs (folks that come 2 or 3 times a year for

anything from 2 weeks to 2 months are very quiet in Bangkok.

The Thai restaurants that cater for locals are starting to get busy again.

The massive infrastructure by both private & business operators mean that they will hurt if goes on much longer, but I agree that tourism is not the be and end all for Thailand.

Massive manufacturing & export is cranking up,  crops are still growing, so Thailand will certainly survive this

There will be opportunities in Thailand other than tourism, that is for sure.  They need investment from China that is very achievable these days.

[Isaan sailor]

Instead of welcoming new industry—they welcomed new tourists.  Now the tourists have disappeared, and the high Baht should close down most exporters.  Fix the damned Baht.

[bert bloggs]

6 hours ago, bert bloggs said:

In a minute the wife and i are off for a walk in town ,or at least beach road here in Pattaya ,something we never used to do ,because of the traffic and Chinese tours  etc etc , its been dead for months ,more than half the places are closed with more going every day . I honestly cannot see it coming back to normal for years .

Well we are back ,walked down Beach road and back ,popped into Central to cool down and get a coffee ,

Cant believe how deserted the whole of Beach rd was ,in fact the only places open seemed to be the stores selling beach gear ,God knows who would buy it the beach was deserted as were the bars ,Mcdonalds .Burger King , and all the restaurants ,those that were open. A bar girl called out to me and called me a sexy man ,i turned laughed and said "those were the days" we both laughed ,if the wife had not been walking in front i would have bought the girl a drink ,just to be nice .

goodness knows when it will all get back to normal ,a long time i reckon.

[Silencer]

57 minutes ago, Pilotman said:

Okay.  It is only conjecture of course, but if you look back in history Thailand has always been xenophobic and intent on making its own way without the help of more developed economies.  When they have asked for help, or more to the point reluctantly accepted it, it has never been for long,  as they always wanted to revert to type and do it their own way.  It's all wrapped up in "face".  They see the international reputation  of Thailand as being just a tourist  hot spot, beaches, warm beer, beach parties and sex lots of sex, they are not perceived internationally as a high tech country.  they hate the idea of being thought "Third World", or even "developing".  They are embarrassed by that reputation, anyone would be and they now they see the way out, as becoming a high tech economy, with much less emphasis on tourists and expats hence the development of the EEC as a focus of the future. It fits  not only the culture, by also the mind set of the Generals, who accept the risk of this re alignment as meaning pain in the medium term, but a better future and a much better reputation in the World. Seriously down grading tourist as a major factor in the economy fits this scenario very well. 

The tourist sector has been a growing component of Thailand's economy although the demographics have changed over the years. It's a tough pill to swallow to say....let it die. Making such a macro change requires extensive infrastructure upgrades, multiple economic centers (Bangkok can't be the center of "everything"), and probably most importantly, a highly qualified and educated workforce. Without tourists, "mid-term" could mean 10-20 years which might be unacceptable to a large segment of the population.

[Pilotman]

2 minutes ago, Silencer said:

The tourist sector has been a growing component of Thailand's economy although the demographics have changed over the years. It's a tough pill to swallow to say....let it die. Making such a macro change requires extensive infrastructure upgrades, multiple economic centers (Bangkok can't be the center of "everything"), and probably most importantly, a highly qualified and educated workforce. Without tourists, "mid-term" could mean 10-20 years which might be unacceptable to a large segment of the population.

you only need to live, as I do, in the EEC to see what is happening. It is hugely impressive and extensive. 

Edited August 28, 2020 by Pilotman

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, Pilotman said:

Think on this, over 40 million Thais live in rural locations that never see a tourist and don't need them for their local economy.  Don't get tourism out of proportion.  It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand. Watch this space. It may all virtually end and I dont think that many Thais will cry any tears if it does. At the very least, it may be confined to a few restricted areas only, such as Phuket and Pattaya. 

Some sense at last, Phuket, Pattaya, Samui and the like are not the centre of the universe.
They will have to do what all businesses have to do when the market forces change ADAPT OR GO UNDER!

80% of Thailand is not dependent on tourism... there are alternatives out there.

[spidermike007]

2 hours ago, Chassa said:

Expats NOT tourists!

It deos not matter. Both expats and tourists are being kept out. That is the whole point. Stop the paranoia and fear mongering. Do it safely, but do it! 

[worldfun]

18 minutes ago, Pilotman said:

you only need to live, as I do, in the EEC to see what is happening. It is hugely impressive and extensive. 

oh yeah? lots of concrete, fuming trucks, motorways & high tech people? Last I heard it's lukewarm at best & nobody major taking up any leases lol. so what you doing down there in the industrial wasteland?

[baansgr]

52 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

It should also be noted that tourism in Thailand is changing, with China and India picking up the slack left by the dwindling western tourists.  The focus should therefore be on what their requirements will be.

Cheaper women and cheaper rooms plus lots of straws and spitoons

[kingofthemountain]

2 hours ago, gillap said:

Gates wants to chip everybody...it means billions for him and it's part of the conspiracy to control the sheeples! Stay away from vaccines and 5G networks is my advice to everyone who doesn't want to become a cyborg!

seriously mate

 

you should looking for some help and talk with someone

[Patts]

7 hours ago, Pilotman said:

Think on this, over 40 million Thais live in rural locations that never see a tourist and don't need them for their local economy.  Don't get tourism out of proportion.  It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand. Watch this space. It may all virtually end and I dont think that many Thais will cry any tears if it does. At the very least, it may be confined to a few restricted areas only, such as Phuket and Pattaya. 

 

In 2016 Tourism made up 17.7% of GDP, in 2018 it was 21.6% and 2019 would have been closer to 23%! If you are going to quote figures off Google at least bother to make sure they are up to date.

 

You honestly believe that a country losing nearly a quarter of it's GDP isn't "absolutely vital" for a country who's borrowing is at an all time high; not to mention that tourism provides jobs for millions of relatively unskilled thais and the earnings from those jobs normally support a whole family in their village.  

Edited August 28, 2020 by Patts

[Emeraldisle]

1 hour ago, dunroaming said:

There will be opportunities in Thailand other than tourism, that is for sure.  They need investment from China that is very achievable these days.

Look at what happened to other countries that accepted investment/loans from China

[tlandtday]

7 hours ago, Surelynot said:

Two lights at the end of the tunnel.....a very effective vaccine and a weakening baht.....otherwise "we are all doomed".

You can forget about a successful vaccine... when was the last time you saw one for aids?  And the baht weakening may have a better chance but don't bet on it with all the money laundering going on lol

[Redline]

6 hours ago, DaLa said:

Again , agreed.

 

OK let's look at Tourism in Thailand from the perspective of the Steel Industry in the UK. In1967 there were 350,000 people employed in the UK steel industry. 80,000 in Sheffield, 150,00 in the Don Valley. Of that 80,000 in Sheffield, there were another 80,000 in support (sandwich shops, banks built on the premises of steel works, public transport network etc).

 

In 2016 there were a total of 30,000 working in the UK steel industry and only 8000 in the whole of Yorkshire and Humberside.

 

Yes, it had a devastating effect, but times change and people move on. After 13 years qualifying and working as a Metallurgist I re-trained. And then 5 years later re-trained again. Then entered the Financial services industry where I worked for the largest insurance company in the UK with a field staff of 20,000. Over a period of 10 years that was reduced to zero.

 

I believe but have no experience to relate to, that the UK fishing industry met a similar fate.

 

They don't retrain in Thailand.  Once one finishes schooling, for the most part, they are done.  There are very few older people in school because it's not "right" for people to go back because that means they made a mistake, or didn't try hard enough to succeed~another saving face situation.

 

I know very few Thai people that learn anything on their spare time.  I do know some, but mostly they play social media, watch dramas, and play games.

[soalbundy]

7 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

The three legs of the Thai economic stool are agriculture...manufacturing...and tourism (in that order). When any of them are down (and tourism is basically out), the entire country and all its people suffer. Sure tourism is not the be all and end all of the economy, but it is an important component nonetheless and the faster it can safely be re-started the better.

All three legs have been sawn off lately, the sun still shines.