What’s your gut feeling on if they will extend the amnesty

[FarFlungFalang]

54 minutes ago, Jack Hna said:

Amnesty or other option. They will appear. Many types in the same boat, offshore workers, nomads, dad's, the pandemic is not a reason to change anything it's just a bad situation which will end. 

"the pandemic is not a reason to change anything it's just a bad situation which will end" "the old normal".There fixed it for you.Out with the old in with the new.I agree there's no reason to change anything but I don't think we will have much say in wether it changes or not.Me I'll take Bruce Lee's path of least resistance.I do see some "anti covid-19 measures" protests going on though and they are being labelled the 'tin foil hat mob" but I think there might be more to it.I think the other option will be "pay to stay"and is what I predict.

 

[FarFlungFalang]

52 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

They also say this earlier in the letter. "We wish to refer to the unique global transportation restrictions caused by the pandemic outbreak of COVID-19, and its effects on international travel. The Embassy of the United States of America requests these special circumstances be considered for U.S. citizens who remain in Thailand on temporary visas and wish to apply for temporary extensions of stay from the Immigration Bureau of the Royal Thai Police."

The Australian Embassy letter is very similar and also mentions the disruption to global travel.

[worldfun]

The facts of the matter means it still has to be extended.

When airlines cannot fly inbound how on earth can they fly outbound? 0% load inbound & then questionable outbound load maybe 50% on average? NOway & thus most 'planned flights are canceled. 
I'd say tourist/via & exampt 30day on arrival may have outlive the goodwill but the multi visas still valid but cant get out & back in to renew should still be catered to somehow. why not make similar stamps in country as could normally be gotten at the borders at some reasonable fee?
In the end the embassy letters & doctor certify is bound to be used extensively if amnesty will end

[edwardandtubs]

21 minutes ago, FlyingThai said:

Please, Covid isn't Ebola. You're not in danger by returning to Europe or North America.

Most people have no ability to assess risk and are happy to ride on the back of a motorbike with no helmet in a country with 20,000 road deaths a year but fill their pants at the thought of living in a country where 1 in 2000 people have a virus which is no more dangerous than the flu.

Edited August 30, 2020 by edwardandtubs

[ThLT]

- They've extended it another time, and said they won't extend it again.

- They're telling people to ask for an embassy letter.

- They're setting things up for Non-Immigrant visa changes inside the country.

- Extending it again would be a loss of face, since it would mean "We lied last time, we're extending it again."

 

People had 6 months to go back home—half a year—that's how they see it.

And they don't see people stuck here (voluntarily or not) as spending money in Thailand (contrary to what foreigners think). There's a pandemic, no one is spending money.

 

 

Edited August 30, 2020 by ThLT

[david555]

42 minutes ago, worldfun said:

The facts of the matter means it still has to be extended.

When airlines cannot fly inbound how on earth can they fly outbound? 0% load inbound & then questionable outbound load maybe 50% on average? NOway & thus most 'planned flights are canceled. 
I'd say tourist/via & exampt 30day on arrival may have outlive the goodwill but the multi visas still valid but cant get out & back in to renew should still be catered to somehow. why not make similar stamps in country as could normally be gotten at the borders at some reasonable fee?
In the end the embassy letters & doctor certify is bound to be used extensively if amnesty will end

"When airlines cannot fly inbound how on earth can they fly outbound?"

 

KLM airline fly in loaded with cargo , even in the seats area and fly out with passengers , they try to manage as they need to make some money and also don't like to loose the airport slots … 

 

Average 3 times a week , you can check their airline , but choose single flight as that page  they are to book , prices from 20 000 to 27000 baht , and a connection flight to example Heathrow U.K. 2 hours later at Amsterdam airport is available , may not forget Schiphol is a international hub , you can connect to many other country's from there

This is also the reason now airmail is working again as in contradiction in the beginning from the pandemic ..

 

Like someone pointed out : not able to fly is not equal to not wishing to fly (depart )

 

Where is a wish to fly there is a way to fly 

Edited August 30, 2020 by david555

[Seik]

13 minutes ago, ThLT said:

- They've extended it another time, and said they won't extend it again.

- They're telling people to ask for an embassy letter.

 

 

No offense meant, but your use of "They" show you are not able to make the distinction between the government and immigration, making your opinion worthless.

[Jack Hna]

Just remain calm gents be thankful your not on the other side of the fence. Have some faith that the right result will appear. Cast your minds back to the 13 cave boys and recall all those people you bumped into telling you they were goners.

 

Keep the faith lads.

 

 

[Caldera]

I've voted no.

 

If they want to provide an easy way for people to stay (and they might), I think it will still involve going to immigration to get stamped. Attending an immigration office isn't dangerous anymore.

 

[Mike Teavee]

17 hours ago, Daithi85 said:

Amnesty will be extended or an option to apply for 30 day extensions will be made available.with the American Embassy now giving out letters again something has obviously changed.there is no way people will be thrown out on the 26th Imagine the bad publicity.????????????????

The US Embassy giving out letters suggests that people will be thrown out on the 26th September unless they do something about it. 

 

Immigration have been very clear in saying that you either sort your permission to stay situation out or leave & the US Embassy is now saying to get a stamp to take yourself up to the 26th September & either get a long term extension or a 30 day extension using the letter that they're sending out automatically (within minutes of requesting)... 

 

I can only see bad publicity (Thailand IO made a laughing stock off) if Thailand says "Yeah, we know you couldn't be ar5ed to extend your permission to stay despite having 6 months to do so, but we take it all back & please stay as long as you like"

 

If you're sat there doing nothing because you're expecting an automatic extension, at least pack the essentials before it's too late... 

[BritTim]

1 hour ago, worldfun said:

The facts of the matter means it still has to be extended.

When airlines cannot fly inbound how on earth can they fly outbound? 0% load inbound & then questionable outbound load maybe 50% on average? 

If there are outbound flights that are leaving half empty, as you suggest, what is the problem with people booking seats and leaving?

 

I agree with those who say it would be logical to allow most people already here to stay. However, trying to make up reasons why people cannot leave is counterproductive, as are arguments based on what is best for the foreigners who are here.

[Mike Teavee]

6 hours ago, Ventenio said:

99% they will extend it.  Nothing will change, and the risk of covid coming here is significant if they open the country up.  they won't kick out people without opening up the country.  that makes no sense (OK, maybe now 80%).  

 

IF IF there is a vaccine and whatever, the country will open up and you will go to Laos and get a visa....whatever.  

 

if you kick out tens of thousands or a hundred thousand people.... SOME will end up getting covid and die.  it seems like a lose-lose to kick out people.

 

1900 a month, every month.   if someone gets kicked out, i would hopefully assume they would never, ever come back.

 

not a good business model.  

You're contradicting yourself... You're saying they will extend the Amnesty & then go on to say 1,900 (paid for formal Extension) every month.

 

Which is it?

 

 

[Jack Hna]

8 hours ago, Mike Teavee said:

The US Embassy giving out letters suggests that people will be thrown out on the 26th September unless they do something about it. 

 

Immigration have been very clear in saying that you either sort your permission to stay situation out or leave & the US Embassy is now saying to get a stamp to take yourself up to the 26th September & either get a long term extension or a 30 day extension using the letter that they're sending out automatically (within minutes of requesting)... 

 

I can only see bad publicity (Thailand IO made a laughing stock off) if Thailand says "Yeah, we know you couldn't be ar5ed to extend your permission to stay despite having 6 months to do so, but we take it all back & please stay as long as you like"

 

If you're sat there doing nothing because you're expecting an automatic extension, at least pack the essentials before it's too late... 

Course everyone is prepared don't devalue the audience just cos they have a pair of balls. We're hearing you but it's nothing new.

[Jack Hna]

Just now, Mike Teavee said:

You're contradicting yourself... You're saying they will extend the Amnesty & then go on to say 1,900 (paid for formal Extension) every month.

 

Which is it?

 

 

Does it really matter. His point is there will be options. Options you do not envisage, so that's his point. Anyone with common sense can follow his remarks he's not a prophet and you do not need to be. Just plain old common sense and twice already common sense prevailed and there has been zero changes, so apply some common sense.

[Jack Hna]

Just now, BritTim said:

If there are outbound flights that are leaving half empty, as you suggest, what is the problem with people booking seats and leaving?

 

I agree with those who say it would be logical to allow most people already here to stay. However, trying to make up reasons why people cannot leave is counterproductive, as are arguments based on what is best for the foreigners who are here.

They are half empty at time of departure so they are cancelled.

 

Finding ways not to leave is not counter productive if you in fact are allowed to stay based on finding reasons not to leave

[BritTim]

15 minutes ago, Jack Hna said:

They are half empty at time of departure so they are cancelled.

You can fairly easily find out which airlines are genuinely operating flights, and which are just collecting money for flights they intend to cancel. Just avoid booking flights on airlines that are not operating flights.

 

15 minutes ago, Jack Hna said:

25 minutes ago, BritTim said:

However, trying to make up reasons why people cannot leave is counterproductive, as are arguments based on what is best for the foreigners who are here.

Finding ways not to leave is not counter productive if you in fact are allowed to stay based on finding reasons not to leave

There is a difference between finding ways to stay, and inventing bogus reasons why you cannot. I certainly do not want to leave, and have ensured I do not need to. I did not do this by stating "it is impossible to do border runs" or "the Thai government cannot make us leave because we do not want to".

Edited August 30, 2020 by BritTim

[Mike Teavee]

1 minute ago, Jack Hna said:

A polish person or a poll?

 

It's irrelevant it's a win in either case but if the automatic monthly extensions are put in place for a period of 6-12 months then that's a better option. 

 

 

Just nah on the other stuff. Nah.

Very droll (or should that be drole)?

 

I'm more than 50% certain there won't be an automatic extension & people will have take some action in order to extend their stay but I'm even more confident that anybody who wants to extend their stay (& wasn't on overstay at 26th March) will be able to find a way...

 

I just think it's more useful to talk about how they do this than come out with blanket statements saying there will definitely be a 4 month extension [There won't be]

 

And come on, that Frankie Boyle Joke is almost as funny as the "My Dad wants me to sign-up to be an organ donor... There's a man after my own heart" 

 

 

 

 

[david555]

43 minutes ago, Jack Hna said:

They are half empty at time of departure so they are cancelled.

 

Finding ways not to leave is not counter productive if you in fact are allowed to stay based on finding reasons not to leave

May I remark that this is not the normal flight time departing from BKK.., as before the outbound out BKK was always at midday  , this one  at midnight, also look on the monthly schedule look the  prices for October much higher , should they know something more …??

THIS ARE SINGLE FLIGHTS

 

https://www.klm.co.th/search/offers?pax=1:0:0:0:0:0:0:0&cabinClass=ECONOMY&activeConnection=0&connections=BKK:A:20200925>AMS:A&bookingFlow=LEISURE

 

Edited August 30, 2020 by david555

[JeffersLos]

Amnesty not extended, but a special 6 month extension of stay based on I really want to stay.

[FalangJaiDee]

I have a theory that Thailand wants to wash out all the riff raff, would-be short stay tourists to make way for the """"long stay"""" tourists who can be freshly fleeced in the new ASQ scheme

[Jack Hna]

1 minute ago, FalangJaiDee said:

I have a theory that Thailand wants to wash out all the riff raff, would-be short stay tourists to make way for the """"long stay"""" tourists who can be freshly fleeced in the new ASQ scheme

So the riff raff could afford to stay and can still afford to stay but they are deemed riff raff. Makes perfect sense

[JoseThailand]

2 hours ago, ThLT said:

- Extending it again would be a loss of face, since it would mean "We lied last time, we're extending it again."

There was no clear statement that the amnesty would not be extended. All we have is just immigration's advice (get a ED or volunteer visa through an agent, meaning dirty money for them). But it's not they who make the decision on the amnesty extension.

Edited August 30, 2020 by JoseThailand

[Jack Hna]

5 minutes ago, JoseThailand said:

There was no clear statement that the amnesty would not be extended. All we have is just immigration's advice (get a ED or volunteer visa through an agent, meaning dirty money for them). But it's not they who make the decision on the amnesty extension.

That's BS there was no clear advice given and at no point did the announcements ever say this is the final extension. I recall reading the words: So far 

 

 

[edwardandtubs]

11 minutes ago, Jack Hna said:

That's BS there was no clear advice given and at no point did the announcements ever say this is the final extension. I recall reading the words: So far 

 

 

Previous extensions were granted by the government based on the advice of immigration. Now we know that immigration won't be recommending an extension, does anyone really believe this government is going to jump to the defence of foreigners, ignore the advice of immigration and grant yet another extension out of the goodness of their hearts?

[Jack Hna]

1 hour ago, Mike Teavee said:

Very droll (or should that be drole)?

 

I'm more than 50% certain there won't be an automatic extension & people will have take some action in order to extend their stay but I'm even more confident that anybody who wants to extend their stay (& wasn't on overstay at 26th March) will be able to find a way...

 

I just think it's more useful to talk about how they do this than come out with blanket statements saying there will definitely be a 4 month extension [There won't be]

 

And come on, that Frankie Boyle Joke is almost as funny as the "My Dad wants me to sign-up to be an organ donor... There's a man after my own heart" 

 

 

 

 

50% so you are very certain. 

 

50 more than 50, sounds really certain.

 

Just be you and keep up comments like that. Your funny without even trying to be. 

 

 

[pookondee]

I don't believe they will extend the amnesty. They already announced as much.

 

Instead, I believe (and just my opinion) they will temporarily relax some of the overstay rules as a further grace measure.

 

Maybe that might mean they will not detain and black-ban overstayers,

just keep up the daily 500 baht penalty system, with max 20k fine on the way out, say for another 60 days.

 

So, in effect, you would will still be on overstay, just not seriously penalized.

 

I really can't see them rounding up and throwing overstayers in the IDC come end of September.

That would be an absolute P.R disaster.

 

But who knows with Thailand, you can really only expect the unexpected.

 

 

[bobandyson]

18 minutes ago, pookondee said:

I really can't see them rounding up and throwing overstayers in the IDC come end of September.

That would be an absolute P.R disaster.

 

 

 

I've heard and read about the IDC over the years being over-crowded with inmates and conditions being worse than at 'The Bangkok Hilton'. And that was way before any covid scare. Imagine how many are currently in IDC waiting to either to see a judge or waiting for arrangements to be made for deportation.

Would over-crowded conditions in IDCs have any effect in decision making by the Cabinet I wonder.

[BritTim]

25 minutes ago, bobandyson said:

I've heard and read about the IDC over the years being over-crowded with inmates and conditions being worse than at 'The Bangkok Hilton'. And that was way before any covid scare. Imagine how many are currently in IDC waiting to either to see a judge or waiting for arrangements to be made for deportation.

Would over-crowded conditions in IDCs have any effect in decision making by the Cabinet I wonder.

There are few in IDC for over four to six weeks that have the money to pay for their deportation. Those stuck there are people who are stony broke with no family and friends willing to bail them out. At best, they can hope an NGO will take pity on them after a few years and pay for their return to home country.

 

If immigration decide on mass incarceration of overstayers, they will need to stand up extra facilities to house them. It might happen. However, more likely, they will just make highly publicised examples of a small number, trusting this to be sufficient to prompt the rest to leave.

[crazykopite]

No doubt they will make an announcement 48 hours prior to the current extension ending . I would imagine if they decided no more extensions it would be the hottest news around the globe as I have not heard of any country going down this route . If as they stated there were an estimated 300,000 tourists stranded here how the hell would they get them out with all neighbouring countries closed they cannot even get there own people back to Thailand and this is more than 6 months down the road . They will also be aware that those stranded in Thailand are at least helping the economy by spending there money here and that has to be another consideration . The islands are becoming ghost towns as it is if the remaining tourist have to leave that will be them finished for many a year as for the Phuket project they are living in cloud cuckoo land . 

[Peter Denis]

4 minutes ago, crazykopite said:

No doubt they will make an announcement 48 hours prior to the current extension ending . I would imagine if they decided no more extensions it would be the hottest news around the globe as I have not heard of any country going down this route . If as they stated there were an estimated 300,000 tourists stranded here how the hell would they get them out with all neighbouring countries closed they cannot even get there own people back to Thailand and this is more than 6 months down the road . They will also be aware that those stranded in Thailand are at least helping the economy by spending there money here and that has to be another consideration . The islands are becoming ghost towns as it is if the remaining tourist have to leave that will be them finished for many a year as for the Phuket project they are living in cloud cuckoo land . 

You are most probably right > a 'last minute' announcement is to be expected. 

And it will NOT be a blanket Amnesty extension, as that would burn Immigration's already low credibility to under zero levels after having repeated the mantra of the 26 September Amnesty expiry dead-line.  But of course reality dictates that some other measures will need to be put in place (e.g. introducing simple Remainer 30-day extensions at a fee) for those that were unable to meet Immigration requirements for a long-stay extension.