why isnt london having a 2nd wave??

[ukrules]

I don't think those who've had it already will get it again but once the elderly come out of isolation it's still there waiting for them.

 

Just look at Spain, in August they appear to have eased off measures and now things are really ramping up over there. The deaths have gone from 1 or 2 each day a month back to well over 100 a day on some days this past week.

 

It's not gone away, London hasn't caught up with Spain, yet.

[Meat Pie 47]

2 hours ago, Davo369 said:

My ring piece is having a second wave from that Indian food I had

From last night????

Well I would advise you not to go for Vindaloo then

[tribalfusion001]

55 minutes ago, ukrules said:

I don't think those who've had it already will get it again but once the elderly come out of isolation it's still there waiting for them.

 

Just look at Spain, in August they appear to have eased off measures and now things are really ramping up over there. The deaths have gone from 1 or 2 each day a month back to well over 100 a day on some days this past week.

 

It's not gone away, London hasn't caught up with Spain, yet.

It looks like Spain are having problems in care homes again, it's difficult finding any infomation on what is going on there. France are having 7000 to 9000 new cases per day, but the death rate is stable and so is hospital admissions, they are blaming the younger people for getting infected. The general trend is blaming the younger people, next will be closing things down and limiting gatherings. There is a feeling bubbling up now with the restrictions, further limitations will definately spark large protests.

[scammed]

2 hours ago, tgw said:

I disagree. statistics tell us that Sweden already had the second wave, it followed the first one closely. You can actually see it on the graph.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

no it doesnt, you can actually see it in the graphs,

the weak members of the herd is sorted out already

https://www.google.com/search?channel=crow2&client=firefox-b-d&q=sweden+death+by+covid-19

 

[vermin on arrival]

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

I don't think those who've had it already will get it again but once the elderly come out of isolation it's still there waiting for them.

 

Just look at Spain, in August they appear to have eased off measures and now things are really ramping up over there. The deaths have gone from 1 or 2 each day a month back to well over 100 a day on some days this past week.

 

It's not gone away, London hasn't caught up with Spain, yet.

Yes, they had a couple of days with 100+ deaths (one August 19 and one Sept. 4). I would like to see explanations on those. I would like to be sure those were not just statistical accretions which sometimes happen in the data.

[tribalfusion001]

10 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

Yes, they had a couple of days with 100+ deaths (one August 19 and one Sept. 4). I would like to see explanations on those. I would like to be sure those were not just statistical accretions which sometimes happen in the data.

I watch SpainSpeaks on YouTube, the data comes back from 17 regions and there are delays in getting it. This is why their figures are all over the place. I think do have a problem, but it's not all over the country.

[rabang]

Second waves seem to be much less lethal than the first ones, at least in the hardest hit places such as France. More detected cases now than even in April but relatively few in hospitals or dead. I don't think they will issue a lockdown easily anymore.

[ukrules]

3 hours ago, rabang said:

Second waves seem to be much less lethal than the first ones

That is certainly correct at this stage in time, however it's early days.

 

We won't know much more until it happens over the next few months, it will be interesting to watch.

[FarFlungFalang]

3 hours ago, rabang said:

Second waves seem to be much less lethal than the first ones, at least in the hardest hit places such as France. More detected cases now than even in April but relatively few in hospitals or dead. I don't think they will issue a lockdown easily anymore.

Much larger testing is being done now that production of test kits is well established and the larger number of test seems to support those that said the death rate would not be as bas as was being suggested back then.Still a long way to go.

[mommysboy]

On 9/6/2020 at 9:18 PM, ukrules said:

I believe they call it 'immunity', a mechanism whereby once you've 'had it' you don't 'get it' again.

 

If you don't 'get it' again then you don't 'spread it' again, etc.

 

If many people in an area have this 'immunity' then it doesn't spread that much but it will continue to spread in areas of low or no immunity.

Yes and the oft quoted 70% is misunderstood, because in a population 50% appx. seem immune anyway for one reason or another, so perhaps only an additional 20% is needed.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 9/7/2020 at 2:18 AM, ukrules said:

I believe they call it 'immunity', a mechanism whereby once you've 'had it' you don't 'get it' again.

 

If you don't 'get it' again then you don't 'spread it' again, etc.

 

If many people in an area have this 'immunity' then it doesn't spread that much but it will continue to spread in areas of low or no immunity.

Exactly.

 

“It’s a bit of an enigma, given that London very definitely led during the initial peak,” said Professor David Alexander

Not that clever then? If enough people in London became infected and developed an immunity, then there are less people to become infected now.

Only areas that prevented people becoming infected are at risk of "second wave", IMO.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 9/7/2020 at 8:55 AM, rabang said:

Second waves seem to be much less lethal than the first ones, at least in the hardest hit places such as France. More detected cases now than even in April but relatively few in hospitals or dead. I don't think they will issue a lockdown easily anymore.

Not puzzling at all. The "at risk" died already and left those not "at risk".

[thaibeachlovers]

On 9/7/2020 at 7:16 AM, tribalfusion001 said:

It looks like Spain are having problems in care homes again, it's difficult finding any infomation on what is going on there. France are having 7000 to 9000 new cases per day, but the death rate is stable and so is hospital admissions, they are blaming the younger people for getting infected. The general trend is blaming the younger people, next will be closing things down and limiting gatherings. There is a feeling bubbling up now with the restrictions, further limitations will definately spark large protests.

They don't have a clue what to do. If they admit they don't know or were wrong they lose face and probably the election.

Sooooo, just blame young people that had negligible chance of dying anyway.

[Yinn]

 

New infections of coronavirus in the UK are now growing as fast as they were at the beginning of April, according to Telegraphanalysis.

 

After a spate of continuous decline in May and June, new cases of coronavirus began to tick up again in July - around when pubs and restaurants re-opened on so-called 'Super Saturday' on the 4th. 

 

Link 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/08/charts-uks-second-wave-picking-pace/

[Bkk Brian]

21 minutes ago, Yinn said:

 

New infections of coronavirus in the UK are now growing as fast as they were at the beginning of April, according to Telegraphanalysis.

 

After a spate of continuous decline in May and June, new cases of coronavirus began to tick up again in July - around when pubs and restaurants re-opened on so-called 'Super Saturday' on the 4th. 

 

Link 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/08/charts-uks-second-wave-picking-pace/

Unless you're trying to live in a bubble like Thailand and have your economy and peoples lives wrecked (20% increase in suicide in Thailand in the lockdown period) then the only way is to gradually open up and manage the risk. Developed countries have the ability to cope without overflowing hospitals now, new treatments together with a host of other factors mean death rates are now nowhere near the early stages of this pandemic.

[Poet]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

The "at risk" died already and left those not "at risk".

The may be true in broad strokes, but an awful lot of families actually did a good job of keeping their elderly isolated. On every street there are at least a few vulnerable people who, so far, have had no exposure.

Hopefully immunity in the general herd will reach the level at which the virus can no longer spread effectively, but it is worth remembering that there are still a lot of people who could still die if the herd immunity has gaps.

[facer]

simple. You cannot get a test in London for love nor money. This Govn. does not want to shut down London presently

[RJRS1301]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Unless you're trying to live in a bubble like Thailand and have your economy and peoples lives wrecked (20% increase in suicide in Thailand in the lockdown period) then the only way is to gradually open up and manage the risk. Developed countries have the ability to cope without overflowing hospitals now, new treatments together with a host of other factors mean death rates are now nowhere near the early stages of this pandemic.

Death rates are one thing,however the problemS for many post infection include cardiac, kidney some neurological issues along with extreme fatigue. Some younger infected persons have also suffered strokes.It is unknown how long the residual issues continue.

[Poet]

22 minutes ago, facer said:

simple. You cannot get a test in London for love nor money. This Govn. does not want to shut down London presently

One of the rare examples of the UK learning from Thailand.

[vermin on arrival]

13 hours ago, Yinn said:

 

New infections of coronavirus in the UK are now growing as fast as they were at the beginning of April, according to Telegraphanalysis.

 

After a spate of continuous decline in May and June, new cases of coronavirus began to tick up again in July - around when pubs and restaurants re-opened on so-called 'Super Saturday' on the 4th. 

 

Link 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/08/charts-uks-second-wave-picking-pace/

But not ICU admittance and deaths. It's a casedemic based on being hypervigilant for the disease and testing a lot, similar to what happened during the H1N1 flu epidemic in 2009. Also, this is not a second wave. It's a summer surge of cases during the first wave. We'll see if there is a second wave next winter. Many think there will not be one or it will not be that serious.