Sweden has admitted its coronavirus immunity predictions were wrong as cases soar across the country

[placeholder]

20 hours ago, Airalee said:

Do you have a link to the new rules (suggestions)?  If people are suggested to wear masks in crowded areas, what about restaurants?  Perhaps some sort of “feed bag” would help.

 

It appears that cases and deaths are trending down.  That appears to be good news.  I suppose we will have to take a wait and see approach.

 

 

 

The problem with the graphs from Sweden is that they report deaths differently from the rest of the EU. Other countries organize their death statistics by the day the deaths were reported. But Sweden reports by the day the person actually died. So you should wait 10 days before knowing how many Covid deaths occurred on a particular day.

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

The problem with the graphs from Sweden is that they report deaths differently from the rest of the EU. Other countries organize their death statistics by the day the deaths were reported. But Sweden reports by the day the person actually died. So you should wait 10 days before knowing how many Covid deaths occurred on a particular day.

I forgot to put in the link and additional explanation:

Why do COVID-19 deaths in Sweden always appear to decrease in the last 10 days?

In the data that we present on Our World in Data, which comes directly from the European CDC, deaths in Sweden are shown by date of death, while deaths in other countries are shown by date of report...

 In practice this means that Sweden might today only report 10 deaths for yesterday, but once reporting is complete the death count for that day might increase to 40.

The death counts for the last 10 days in Sweden should therefore always be interpreted as an incomplete count of the deaths that occurred in this period.

Why do COVID-19 deaths in Sweden always appear to decrease in the last 10 days? - Our World in Data

[balo]

55 deaths today, they always report the numbers later, expect more than 100 daily next week. 

[Peter Denis]

6 hours ago, balo said:

55 deaths today, they always report the numbers later, expect more than 100 daily next week. 

Considering the 10-day lag in deaths-reporting by Sweden, that is unfortunately well possible.

In the week before 16-11 the death-figures were approx 15 to 30.

It is really bad news, if these deaths are really caused by covid-19, and not people that died of other causes but were also tested positive (a common error that inflates the covid-19 fatality figures). 

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

Considering the 10-day lag in deaths-reporting by Sweden, that is unfortunately well possible.

In the week before 16-11 the death-figures were approx 15 to 30.

It is really bad news, if these deaths are really caused by covid-19, and not people that died of other causes but were also tested positive (a common error that inflates the covid-19 fatality figures). 

Nonsense. The figures to consult are excess mortality figures. Over and over again they show quite the reverse.

[Sheryl]

On 11/15/2020 at 11:50 AM, Airalee said:

For months, we were reading about how the second wave would be worse than the first.  Although the cases have risen substantially, the death rate certainly doesn’t seem to follow regardless of “lag time” prognostications.  In fact, even when cases were trending upwards earlier on,  daily deaths were trending downwards and no “lag time” is apparent according to the charts.

 

Looks like we are out of the woods.

????

 

Deaths are up 57% in the US compared to 2 weeks ago.

 

First cases shot way up and then, a few weeks later, deaths did likewise.

 

As expected.

 

Now over 2,000 deaths a day and it is expected to top the record level of last April within a matter of days.

 

UK deaths up 24% now compared to 2 weeks ago.

 

 

 

 

[johng]

5 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

UK deaths up 24% now compared to 2 weeks ago.

It's the winter now in the Uk   is it possible to have Covid and the Flu/a cold at the same time  ?

anyway looks like the second wave has peaked already.

 

 

 

 

[honu]

This herd-immunity strategy theme applied to Sweden never really matched what they were doing.  Their shut-down wasn't as complete as in other places, while their case numbers and deaths were also higher than in others.  As far as even potentially reaching 75-80% having had the disease that's just absurd.  They've had 231,000 confirmed cases now, and the population is just over 10 million.  That one guy's ideas (Tegnell) and acceptance of a seemingly flawed model of how many people had it there earlier on seem to have spread into inaccurate press, from May:

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a2b4c18c-a5e8-4edc-8047-ade4a82a548d

 

Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist who devised the no-lockdown approach, estimated that 40 per cent of people in the capital, Stockholm, would be immune to Covid-19 by the end of May, giving the country an advantage against a virus that “we’re going to have to live with for a very long time”...

...Primary and secondary schools, restaurants, cafés and shops are mostly open as normal in Sweden, with health authorities relying on voluntary social distancing and people opting to work from home. Schools for over-16s and universities are closed and gatherings of more than 50 people are banned, but it is still the most relaxed approach of any EU country...

 

About a quarter of people in Stockholm had the virus at the start of May, according to a mathematical model by Sweden’s public health agency...

 

 

If their real mortality rate is 1% then 260,000 people in Stockholm, or about a fourth of the total population of Stockholm, have had it now, months later, most of the pandemic later, and 650,000 have had it country-wide.  They really don't know the actual total infected number or mortality rate (every country would only be estimating that), but even if they were "going for" herd immunity they never got close.

[oldhippy]

25 minutes ago, honu said:

This herd-immunity strategy theme applied to Sweden never really matched what they were doing.  Their shut-down wasn't as complete as in other places, while their case numbers and deaths were also higher than in others.  As far as even potentially reaching 75-80% having had the disease that's just absurd.  They've had 231,000 confirmed cases now, and the population is just over 10 million.  That one guy's ideas (Tegnell) and acceptance of a seemingly flawed model of how many people had it there earlier on seem to have spread into inaccurate press, from May:

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a2b4c18c-a5e8-4edc-8047-ade4a82a548d

 

Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist who devised the no-lockdown approach, estimated that 40 per cent of people in the capital, Stockholm, would be immune to Covid-19 by the end of May, giving the country an advantage against a virus that “we’re going to have to live with for a very long time”...

...Primary and secondary schools, restaurants, cafés and shops are mostly open as normal in Sweden, with health authorities relying on voluntary social distancing and people opting to work from home. Schools for over-16s and universities are closed and gatherings of more than 50 people are banned, but it is still the most relaxed approach of any EU country...

 

About a quarter of people in Stockholm had the virus at the start of May, according to a mathematical model by Sweden’s public health agency...

 

 

If their real mortality rate is 1% then 260,000 people in Stockholm, or about a fourth of the total population of Stockholm, have had it now, months later, most of the pandemic later, and 650,000 have had it country-wide.  They really don't know the actual total infected number or mortality rate (every country would only be estimating that), but even if they were "going for" herd immunity they never got close.

How many infectuous diseases have herd immunity?

Not even the yearly flu!

Quite rightly, even Boris abandoned the idea.

[Sharp]

Still don't trust the way it's all collated!! 

Died from all causes but it's Covid because it's within 28 days of positive test. 

Is there any other virus/ that's calculated this way.. 

 

[oldhippy]

8 minutes ago, Sharp said:

Still don't trust the way it's all collated!! 

Died from all causes but it's Covid because it's within 28 days of positive test. 

Is there any other virus/ that's calculated this way.. 

 

For starters: the yearly flu.

[Airalee]

3 hours ago, Sheryl said:

????

 

Deaths are up 57% in the US compared to 2 weeks ago.

 

First cases shot way up and then, a few weeks later, deaths did likewise.

 

As expected.

 

Now over 2,000 deaths a day and it is expected to top the record level of last April within a matter of days.

 

UK deaths up 24% now compared to 2 weeks ago.

 

 

 

 

1.  We are talking about Sweden.

2.  Tell me what percentage of new cases are turning into deaths compared to the first wave.

 

3.  Tell me the figures of people who are dying of COVID vs with COVID .

 

4.  Give me the stats of all the people who died.  I would like to know BMI, Co-morbidites, lifestyle factors etc.

 

I’m not trying to downplay it, but I feel that people are trying to exaggerate for whatever reasons and I can’t seem to find  complete data sets with all the relative information.  And if I do ask for it, I’m somehow a conspiracy theorist,  

 

It’s kind of like the people who wailed on about how young people were dying from it...but when I would search out pictures of these people, they were hardly specimens of health.  

 

Or, I would hear about how it was possible to contract it a second time...sounded scary...until I saw that there were something like seven people (out of 35 million total cases at the time).  Hardly something to be concerned about based on those numbers.  

 

Even a month into the COVID crisis, we would be told about the long term effects.  How can we know about long term effects when it hasn’t even been around “long term”?

[farang51]

12 minutes ago, Airalee said:

4.  Give me the stats of all the people who died.  I would like to know BMI, Co-morbidites, lifestyle factors etc.

Do the deaths not count if people have a high BMI or a co-morbidity? If so, should those people not count in the traffic deaths as well?

 

People can live with a co-morbidity for many years without any problems.

 

16 minutes ago, Airalee said:

3.  Tell me the figures of people who are dying of COVID vs with COVID .

 

The way most countries count, you get a few that would have died anyway; however, many more will die of COVID without being registered. That is why we do not get the full picture until months or years later when we have a better view of excess deaths compared to normal years. The full picture usually always show a lot more deaths than when in the middle of the pandemic, flu or whatever.

 

[Bluetongue]

17 hours ago, Airalee said:

 

 

 

 

It’s kind of like the people who wailed on about how young people were dying from it...but when I would search out pictures of these people, they were hardly specimens of health.  

 

 

Only selected information makes the headline news. In the height of Victoria's outbreak, people questioning the Government were derided. Even though no one in Australia under 40 died. Much was made of a young man of 24 who died with Covid. It was headline news, told you so stuff. Later it was revealed quietly, ah still checking on that one, not sure. Even later on still super quietly it emerged he was a drug overdose victim. Of course many of the 800 or so deaths in Victoria were people in palliative care, ie did not receive treatment for Covid as the medical profession had already deemed them to be imminently dead. You cannnot find out what the numbers were for these, I'll bet they were substantial.

[Airalee]

2 hours ago, Bluetongue said:

Only selected information makes the headline news.

Exactly, and it seems as if people parrot said headlines without asking any questions.  
 

I’ll do my part to mask up and wash my hands to make those that are more vulnerable feel safe, but when you have assumably intelligent and educated people attack you with logical fallacies (straw men, appeal to authority, ad hominems) and use selective, misleading statistics in order support their weak arguments...well...I really don’t know what to say.

[placeholder]

On 11/26/2020 at 5:20 PM, oldhippy said:

How many infectuous diseases have herd immunity?

Not even the yearly flu!

Quite rightly, even Boris abandoned the idea.

The flu is different. It mutates very quickly in a way that makes previous vaccines less effective. That's why new vaccine formulations are needed yearly.

[oldhippy]

9 hours ago, placeholder said:

The flu is different. It mutates very quickly in a way that makes previous vaccines less effective. That's why new vaccine formulations are needed yearly.

And covid will be different? Source?

And again: how many other infectuous diseases?

 

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, oldhippy said:

And covid will be different? Source?

And again: how many other infectuous diseases?

 

Coronavirus seems to mutate much slower than seasonal flu | Live Science

Since I didn't raise any questions about how many other infections diseases etc, I don't see why it's incumbent upon me to answer your query, Although clearly vaccinations have helped populations reach herd immunity for certain diseases. And when vaccinations begin to drop, as in the case of measles, herd immunity can be lost.

Edited November 28, 2020 by placeholder

[AmySeeker]

My family in Thailand couldn't get into Sweden as it's borders were closed. Alot of nonsense rubbish that it had no lockdown. 

 

If Sweden is classed as no lockdown, then so is the UK. My family flew straight to the UK, as it was open. Hell even heavily infected countries like India and Brazil could have passengers fly into the UK !!! Of course both are sheer lunacy., 

[oldhippy]

15 hours ago, placeholder said:

Coronavirus seems to mutate much slower than seasonal flu | Live Science

Since I didn't raise any questions about how many other infections diseases etc, I don't see why it's incumbent upon me to answer your query, Although clearly vaccinations have helped populations reach herd immunity for certain diseases. And when vaccinations begin to drop, as in the case of measles, herd immunity can be lost.

Millions of mink think otherwise.......

[ding]

16 hours ago, placeholder said:

Although clearly vaccinations have helped populations reach herd immunity for certain diseases. And when vaccinations begin to drop, as in the case of measles, herd immunity can be lost.

Absolutely correct. But it might be good to clarify what should be obvious; Infection-based "herd immunity" in the USA, Brazil, etc. has been tried as a way of dealing with the cervasa virus. It's easier for a leader to punt on fighting it and try to save the economy to look good, or look tough, politically. "Infection-based" herd immunity has never been tried before because it's a lot like genocide of the elderly and unhealthy in a leader's own citizenry.

 

Anyway- I'll get the mRNA vaccine but wont cut in line and be an early adopter with this novel form of vaccine. I could probably get an early vaccination because of my job but will happily wait my turn and see how it goes in the near term.

Edited November 28, 2020 by ding

[mommysboy]

On 11/28/2020 at 5:10 AM, oldhippy said:

And covid will be different? Source?

And again: how many other infectuous diseases?

 

 

Once you've got the ability to stop one coronavirus, wouldn't it be relatively easy to do the same with another?

 

So, you'd just have yearly jabs, as with the 'flu jab'.

 

 

[globalKO]

Sweden has admitted its coronavirus immunity predictions were wrong as cases soar across the country
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Edited November 30, 2020 by globalKO

[mommysboy]

On 11/29/2020 at 1:43 AM, ding said:

Absolutely correct. But it might be good to clarify what should be obvious; Infection-based "herd immunity" in the USA, Brazil, etc. has been tried as a way of dealing with the cervasa virus. It's easier for a leader to punt on fighting it and try to save the economy to look good, or look tough, politically. "Infection-based" herd immunity has never been tried before because it's a lot like genocide of the elderly and unhealthy in a leader's own citizenry.

 

Anyway- I'll get the mRNA vaccine but wont cut in line and be an early adopter with this novel form of vaccine. I could probably get an early vaccination because of my job but will happily wait my turn and see how it goes in the near term.

 

I think if you are under 50, doing exercise, trim, and with no underlying health conditions then you probably don't need a vaccination.  If not, then the benefits of vaccination far outweigh the risks.  I understand what you mean about the new mRNA vaccines, and I would have the same strategy. 

[farang51]

38 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

I think if you are under 50, doing exercise, trim, and with no underlying health conditions then you probably don't need a vaccination.

The thing is, he needs the vaccine even if he is young and healthy. Maybe not to protect himself but to protect others. We do not achieve herd immunity if only the old and weak gets the vaccine.

 

In Denmark, the government plan to first vaccinate the old, those with underlying health conditions, and the "front workers"; then, they will offer the vaccine to the young ones because they are the ones with most personal contacts and thus the ones that spread the virus.

[placeholder]

6 hours ago, mommysboy said:

 

I think if you are under 50, doing exercise, trim, and with no underlying health conditions then you probably don't need a vaccination.  If not, then the benefits of vaccination far outweigh the risks.  I understand what you mean about the new mRNA vaccines, and I would have the same strategy. 

Maybe those people don't need a vaccination but other more vulnerable members of the population do need them to get vaccinated in order to reach herd immunity as fast as possible.

[ExpatOilWorker]

Sweden had 3 deaths/day from Covid the last few days. 

They might have had the right strategy all along.

[placeholder]

54 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Sweden had 3 deaths/day from Covid the last few days. 

No they didn't. Sweden reports its death differently from most other nations. Instead of just reporting information on deaths by the day they receive the reports, they report by the actual day of death. So to get a complete total, you should wait 10 days. That's why the last days on graphs depicting their reports always look like they are tailing off.

[mommysboy]

10 hours ago, placeholder said:

Maybe those people don't need a vaccination but other more vulnerable members of the population do need them to get vaccinated in order to reach herd immunity as fast as possible.

 

Yes of course.  In differentiating who doesn't need a vaccination (probably). I was also pointing by deduction those who do!????

 

I think ultimately the goal should be to avoid serious illness- all three vaccines appear very efficacious in this respect.  Herd immunity is possibly not achievable for various reasons.

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, mommysboy said:

 

Yes of course.  In differentiating who doesn't need a vaccination (probably). I was also pointing by deduction those who do!????

 

I think ultimately the goal should be to avoid serious illness- all three vaccines appear very efficacious in this respect.  Herd immunity is possibly not achievable for various reasons.

If it's achievable for measles, the odds are it's achievable for coronavirus.