COVID-19 Almost Over

[Jillie Norman]

We are nearing the end of this year. Although there's a hopeful thought that the pandemic will be gone along with it, it's highly unlikely. The most affected industry is the tourism as we are all urged to stay home. Some have invented some kind of virtual tour and such. What do you guys think of this? Will this be the new tourism for a couple of years or so?

[ukrules]

COVID is now endemic in most of the world. Within a year or two it will be endemic everywhere.

 

Once the populations are vaccinated the doors can be opened when the government choose to do so.

 

My estimate is that this will happen some time in 2022.

 

But lets not kid ourselves, COVID will still be endemic (which means normal, widespread and relatively common - like a cold).

 

[Scott]

A conspiracy post with false or misleading information has been reported and removed. 

 

[Jingthing]

It's clearly not almost over. We're still closer to the beginning than the end. I agree it will eventually be a kind of "manageable" endemic but first we need to vaccinate most of the entire world. 

[Bluetongue]

Well to answer the OP. I'm not a fan of virtual tourism, I'd rather see a movie. I certainly wouldn't part with any of my hard earned to go on a virtual tour. Call me old fashioned, but I like my swims real, my beers cold, my girlfriends warm and my colours vivid through my own eyes.

[Peter Denis]

  On 11/19/2020 at 2:39 AM, Jingthing said:

... first we need to vaccinate most of the entire world. 

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... first people need to understand that vaccinating the entire world is total madness.

[Techno Viking]

what is virtual tourism?

[luckyluke]

  On 11/19/2020 at 5:38 AM, Peter Denis said:

... first people need to understand that vaccinating the entire world is total madness.

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I don't get why it is madness.

I may change my view when I know why you claim it is.

[oompie69]

  On 11/19/2020 at 5:41 AM, Techno Viking said:

what is virtual tourism?

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It's a bit like dreaming. You are not really there.

[Walker88]

It's going to take time and longer than anyone wants. Even when vaccines are widely available, countries will decide for themselves when and how much to re-open borders.

 

Herd immunity, at least with Covid-19, is a shibboleth. Antibodies are found to last 2-3 months maximum. The initial Chinese research in this regards is being confirmed by additional study. Thus, it's going to take an effective vaccine or vaccines.

 

The two most promising vaccines---Pfizer and Moderna---come with a bit of small print. Both require two shots, an initial injection and a booster a few weeks later.  Immunity is not instant and takes a few months to build. Both vaccines also require liquid nitrogen cold storage until getting ready for injection. That may be doable in large cities, but the logistics of deep cold storage in rural areas or developing countries is an issue. Then there is the problem of production. Pfizer claims it can have 50 million doses by December. Sounds good, but the US alone has 330,000,000 people. Widespread inoculation will be a long process.

 

Finally, 95% effective is great for a corona vaccine (65% if about tops for the common flu), but 5% of 7.7 billion people is a lot of people. The world is going to have to live with lost lives from this new pathogen.

 

Addressing the virus will likely require both vaccines and treatment programs that use drugs which mitigate the worst effects or suppress the virus. Think of the latter like the drugs used to keep HIV at bay without ever actually curing it.

 

Yes, there is astonishing progress in vaccine development, but again, individual countries will decide what they are willing to risk and when. Thailand has been particularly cautious, and that has yielded benefits which the government may not want to put at risk.

[Jingthing]

  On 11/19/2020 at 5:38 AM, Peter Denis said:

... first people need to understand that vaccinating the entire world is total madness.

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Says the extremist anti-vaxxer brigade.

This group is a major threat to controlling the pandemic.

Of course it's important to determine that any vaccines released are safe and effective. But that doesn't mean 100 percent safe and effective. Nothing in the world meets that impossible standard.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/anti-vax-movement-among-top-10-global-health-threats-for-2019-world-health-organization/

[FarFlungFalang]

  On 11/19/2020 at 2:39 AM, Jingthing said:

It's clearly not almost over. We're still closer to the beginning than the end. I agree it will eventually be a kind of "manageable" endemic but first we need to vaccinate most of the entire world. 

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I won't be paying for any vaccine.Especially when I'm sure I've already had it.Never really been worried by this virus.

[Jingthing]

  On 11/19/2020 at 6:13 AM, FarFlungFalang said:

I won't be paying for any vaccine.Especially when I'm sure I've already had it.Never really been worried by this virus.

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The current research appears to indicate that having had it doesn't necessarily provide immunity for a long time. So your reasoning is suspect.

[johnnybangkok]

  On 11/19/2020 at 6:13 AM, FarFlungFalang said:

I won't be paying for any vaccine.Especially when I'm sure I've already had it.Never really been worried by this virus.

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Well it's just as well science and world governments aren't just relying on your anecdotal evidence.

[cormanr7]

Very misleading title. COVID-19 will likely become endemic. There is no question of vaccinating 7.5 billion people (many of whom will refuse anyway), will be limited to risk groups. Much will depend on how long potential vaccines will be effective, if they last for only 3 months it is next to useless. Vaccinating everybody is not required anyway to reduce the number of infections. It may well be that for the immediate future, vaccination will be required in order to travel abroad. Even then, additional tests might well be required (I am thinking specifically of SE Asia, China and Japan).

Though I like to look at travel pictures (which for me do no include selfies by the innumerable attention seekers and narcissists) now and then,  I am not a fan of virtual tourism. Nothing can replace the real thing. 

[Skallywag]

  On 11/19/2020 at 6:13 AM, FarFlungFalang said:

I won't be paying for any vaccine.Especially when I'm sure I've already had it.Never really been worried by this virus.

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Did you get a vaccine against Polio? Rubella? Whooping cough?  Do you get a tetanus shot every 5-10 years?   you will "pay" one way or another.

[ukrules]

  On 11/19/2020 at 6:08 AM, Walker88 said:

The two most promising vaccines---Pfizer and Moderna---come with a bit of small print. Both require two shots, an initial injection and a booster a few weeks later.  Immunity is not instant and takes a few months to build. Both vaccines also require liquid nitrogen cold storage until getting ready for injection. That may be doable in large cities, but the logistics of deep cold storage in rural areas or developing countries is an issue.

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That's not entirely accurate. The Moderna vaccine requires storage at -20 C which is in the normal domestic deep freeze range.

 

The Pfizer vaccine requires -80 C which quite coincidentally, is the temperature of dry ice.

 

There's other vaccines which you will read about in the coming weeks which will also be very effective and can be stored at between 2 and 6 degrees C - in a regular kitchen fridge.

 

[LiveKiss]

  On 11/19/2020 at 6:12 AM, Jingthing said:

Says the extremist anti-vaxxer brigade.

This group is a major threat to controlling the pandemic.

Of course it's important to determine that any vaccines released are safe and effective. But that doesn't mean 100 percent safe and effective. Nothing in the world meets that impossible standard.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/anti-vax-movement-among-top-10-global-health-threats-for-2019-world-health-organization/

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Try voicing those opinions out in the public, and you will see what a real threat is.

You can do double vaccines and put double masks, but your authority stops where your body stops.

The upcoming propaganda in favor of vaccinations is going to get crushed, the resistance was ready many years ago ????

All those countries who bought vaccines for all will have to justify the expenditures later 

[VocalNeal]

  On 11/19/2020 at 6:25 AM, cormanr7 said:

vaccination will be required in order to travel abroad.

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This makes sense. Like the travel clinics with yellow fever, typhoid etc.

[ThailandRyan]

If Covid-19 was not bad enough already with the second wave hitting, what will make it worse for people are total and complete lockdowns and shutdowns like South Australia will be facing.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/outdoor-exercise-banned-in-one-of-worlds-toughest-lockdowns/ar-BB1b9cXN

 

The US will more than likely follow suit after Biden is installed, and where will that leave the rest of the world.  This thing is definitely not going away anytime soon.  Everyone needs to get on the same page and do the right things in order to make this Virus a non entity.  However, I am not totally convinced that vaccines are the way to go and whether or not they will have the efficacy needed to cover all, much like the annual Flu Jab's people get, and yet still come down with it.  It might slow it down some, but who really knows.

[nobodysfriend]

Everybody is talking about the new vaccines and the potential effects it could have ...

Nothing is proven yet .

Nobody knows how long the vaccine based immunity will last , nobody knows yet about eventual long term side effects of it ...

 

But nobody is talking about eliminating the reason why this virus ( and Sars , Aids , Bird flu etc ) appeared .

All these viruses are zoonotic transmissions .

The virus appeared first in animals and then jumped to people .

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/the-new-coronavirus-was-not-genetically-engineered-study-shows

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52125309

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52048195

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2020/4/11/the-wildlife-trade-caused-coronavirus-and-a-vaccine-cant-fix-it/

It is human activity that enabled the virus to jump to people, and specialists are warning that if nothing changes many other pandemics of this nature will follow.

As long as animals that are used for human consumption ( even the 17 million minks in Denmark ) , are not treated species - appropriate , there will be more viruses to come .

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54918267

World-renowned British primatologist Jane Goodall says the coronavirus pandemic was caused by humanity’s disregard for nature and disrespect for animals.

Global animal, bird and fish populations have plummeted more than two-thirds in less than 50 years due to rampant over-consumption .

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54118769

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/9/10/wildlife-in-catastrophic-decline-due-to-human-destruction-wwf

Same goes for the massive deforestation in , ( not only )  , the Amazonas region , and the ongoing pollution and destruction of earth's  once self- regulating ecosystems .

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-brazil-pantanal-insigh/burned-jaguars-fire-tornadoes-blazes-in-brazil-wetland-deliver-climate-warning-idUSKBN2651DZ

That is what greatly favors the appearance of new kinds of viruses that attack the human immune system .

Everything is connected , every action provokes a reaction .

 

( one could think that the virus is just a part of the planet's immune system , designed to neutralize the threat humans impose on the ecosystem , the biosphere and even the atmosphere )

 

 

[papa al]

  On 11/19/2020 at 6:02 AM, johnnybangkok said:

I really don't understand why so many on TVF keep going on about 'natural resistance' or herd immunity. There is no 'natural resistance' to Covid in the same way there is no natural resistance to the common cold or flu. Herd immunity will occur ONLY through a vacine as had been the case for literally every single virus since time immemorial. 

So in summary, 'natural resistance' can only come through a vacine, meaning there is nothing natural about it at all. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4

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papa is 71.

Have never had the flu.

Have never been vaccinated vs. flu.

Same my parents.

Is that not natural resistance?

[Pedrogaz]

I read yesterday that they found a new mutation in Australia.....more virulent and more contagious. I think the future of COVID and the time scale will depend on the efficacy of the newly discovered vaccines against mutations. 

I wouldn't bet on re-opening of Thailand next year.

[Tarteso]

  On 11/20/2020 at 1:45 AM, Pedrogaz said:

I read yesterday that they found a new mutation in Australia.....more virulent and more contagious. I think the future of COVID and the time scale will depend on the efficacy of the newly discovered vaccines against mutations. 

I wouldn't bet on re-opening of Thailand next year.

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Just reading the news, looks  like in Japan just come the third wave..

[Andy from Kent]

  On 11/19/2020 at 2:39 AM, Jingthing said:

It's clearly not almost over. We're still closer to the beginning than the end. I agree it will eventually be a kind of "manageable" endemic but first we need to vaccinate most of the entire world. 

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Yes this strain  will become manageable but that'll probably happen as we're dealing with  another one of the 800,000 similar known  viruses which can be fatal to man.

[Andy from Kent]

  On 11/20/2020 at 1:35 AM, papa al said:

papa is 71.

Have never had the flu.

Have never been vaccinated vs. flu.

Same my parents.

Is that not natural resistance?

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Maybe papa's luck will hold out and maybe it won't.   I hope for the former.

 

Maybe papa should consider getting a  vaccination for  this deadly virus.

[johnnybangkok]

  On 11/20/2020 at 1:35 AM, papa al said:

papa is 71.

Have never had the flu.

Have never been vaccinated vs. flu.

Same my parents.

Is that not natural resistance?

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No. That's blind luck.

I will repeat one more time; there is no such thing as 'natural resistance' to cold, flu or Covid.

[thaibeachlovers]

  On 11/19/2020 at 4:21 AM, Bluetongue said:

Well to answer the OP. I'm not a fan of virtual tourism, I'd rather see a movie. I certainly wouldn't part with any of my hard earned to go on a virtual tour. Call me old fashioned, but I like my swims real, my beers cold, my girlfriends warm and my colours vivid through my own eyes.

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Did you see Strange Days? If they manage to make a headpiece that makes it as real as that, I for one would be happy to travel virtually in that way.

[thaibeachlovers]

  On 11/20/2020 at 1:35 AM, papa al said:

papa is 71.

Have never had the flu.

Have never been vaccinated vs. flu.

Same my parents.

Is that not natural resistance?

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There is no natural resistance to flu that I know of. That's because it mutates and bypasses any defense from a vaccine or infection for a previous version. Which is why we need a new vaccine every year for flu.

[thaibeachlovers]

  On 11/20/2020 at 12:58 AM, nobodysfriend said:

( one could think that the virus is just a part of the planet's immune system , designed to neutralize the threat humans impose on the ecosystem , the biosphere and even the atmosphere )

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That is what I believe. IMO Gaia has recognised humanity as a threat to the planet's health, with rampant pollution, forest burning and over exploitation of resources. Starvation, thirst and disease are pretty effective ways of reducing population since war stopped doing so.

 

Somewhat ironic if humanity killed itself off because there are just too many of us.