How are the bars, restaurants, agogos, massage shops, gentleman clubs and any business doing during covid?

[Yellowtail]

6 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

How far away, percentage wise, do you think Pattaya is away from 2019 levels? 

If you don't know just say you don't know.

[Leaver]

1 minute ago, Yellowtail said:

If you don't know just say you don't know.

 

You're the one stating all is fine here.  Tell us how fine, with a number. 

[PJ71]

1 hour ago, Leaver said:

 

You're the one stating all is fine here.  Tell us how fine, with a number. 

67

[Leaver]

16 minutes ago, PJ71 said:

67

 

You think tourism here is at 67% of 2019? 

[PJ71]

2 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

You think tourism here is at 67% of 2019? 

Between 67 - 68%, what do you think?

[VBF]

2 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

I hadn't been there for years, when was that? was Steve the American guy who ran the bar? i only remember him playing golf once while I was playing with Phil running the golf

Steve was the older guy who was generally there in the mornings and was very good at meeting and greeting customers. After he died, standards dropped noticeably - it went from being one of my favourite breakfast places to just another restaurant, at least for we non-golfers. It seemed like the guy who took over wasn't really that interested. Whether it was that that forced the closure, or lack of customers over the past 2 years, I don't know.

[champers]

35 minutes ago, PJ71 said:

Between 67 - 68%, what do you think?

By the end of the year it is estimated that tourists in Thailand will be at 25% of what they were pre-covid, i.e. 2019. 10 million v 40 million.

The lack of Chinese tourists in particular is a real problem. Those hoping for a resurgence from there for Golden Week in October might be over optimistic.

 

[morrobay]

5 minutes ago, champers said:

By the end of the year it is estimated that tourists in Thailand will be at 25% of what they were pre-covid, i.e. 2019. 10 million v 40 million.

The lack of Chinese tourists in particular is a real problem. Those hoping for a resurgence from there for Golden Week in October might be over optimistic.

 

Not quite , more like 5.5 millionhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/thai-economy-returns-growth-q4-tourism-outlook-maintained-2022-02-21/

[champers]

13 minutes ago, morrobay said:

Not quite , more like 5.5 millionhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/thai-economy-returns-growth-q4-tourism-outlook-maintained-2022-02-21/

Whether it is 10 or 5.5 million, the point I was making is that the percentage figure of 67% is way off beam. Some areas, Buakhao particularly, are maybe doing well but the same cannot be said for most of the city.

[Yellowtail]

3 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

You're the one stating all is fine here.  Tell us how fine, with a number. 

Yet another lie, I only asked where it was, I said nothing like all is fine. 

 

 

[Leaver]

1 hour ago, PJ71 said:

Between 67 - 68%, what do you think?

 

I think you are way off.

 

The Chinese, who were the biggest demographic of tourists here in 2019, are not even allowed out of their country.

 

The Russians and restricted by the war and the crashed rouble. 

 

There's a sharp rise in the cost of living in western countries. 

 

No way is it 60% to 70% back to 2019 levels. 

[kinyara]

Q1 2022 international tourist arrivals were 497,693 compared to the Q1 2019 figure of 10,795,249.

 

So 4.6%

 

Source : Thai Ministry of Sports and Tourism

[PJ71]

2 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

I think you are way off.

 

The Chinese, who were the biggest demographic of tourists here in 2019, are not even allowed out of their country.

 

The Russians and restricted by the war and the crashed rouble. 

 

There's a sharp rise in the cost of living in western countries. 

 

No way is it 60% to 70% back to 2019 levels. 

You've still not given your number?

[Danderman123]

There are areas in Pattaya doing well. Other areas are dead zones.

 

It will take a long time for Pattaya to return to its former self. But, for most of us, current Pattaya is good enough.

[Leaver]

15 hours ago, PJ71 said:

You've still not given your number?

 

I would say somewhere around 8%. 

[Chris.B]

7 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

It will take a long time for Pattaya to return to its former self. 

Hope it doesn't! Much more fun in the early 2000's.

 

[Leaver]

24 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

There are areas in Pattaya doing well. Other areas are dead zones.

 

It will take a long time for Pattaya to return to its former self. But, for most of us, current Pattaya is good enough.

 

You'll always be able to get a decent meal, get drunk, and get laid here. 

 

Whether or not the local Pattaya economy is strong, that's a different question. 

 

At the moment, you have covid discounts on pre covid rents that are ending, with Pattaya no where near 2019 levels of tourism, with many businesses struggling even back in 2019. 

[BritManToo]

22 hours ago, champers said:

By the end of the year it is estimated that tourists in Thailand will be at 25% of what they were pre-covid, i.e. 2019. 10 million v 40 million.

I would doubt more than 10%.

[Leaver]

34 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

I would doubt more than 10%.

 

The Russians will not be back. 

 

The Chinese may be back by the end of the year, but it will take a long while for their numbers to get back to 2019 levels. 

 

Some Indians will be back, but they are like cheap independent mongers.

 

Some westerners will be back, but Thailand was falling out of favor with westerners, pre covid.  Add to that the high cost of living in western countries, and their numbers will be down on pre covid levels.

 

I wish business owners here the best of luck explaining this to their Thai landlords.   Pre covid rents will not be sustainable for quite some time into the future. 

 

Edited April 30, 2022 by Leaver

[kinyara]

For a sense of perspective here are the top 10 countries by visitors numbers to Thailand in 2019 representing 69% of the total visitors of 39.8m

 

1) China - 11.0m

2) Malaysia - 4.2m

3) India - 2.0m

4) S.Korea - 1.9m

5) Laos - 1.8m

6) Japan - 1.8m

7) Russia - 1.5m

8 USA - 1.2m

9) Singapore - 1.1m

10) Vietnam - 1.0m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[champers]

3 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I would doubt more than 10%.

In this morning's Bangkok Post TAT say anywhere between 7 and 10 million this year. 713,000 arrivals up to 25th of April, then they predict at least 1 million per month for the rest of the year.

[Leaver]

53 minutes ago, kinyara said:

For a sense of perspective here are the top 10 countries by visitors numbers to Thailand in 2019 representing 69% of the total visitors of 39.8m

 

1) China - 11.0m

2) Malaysia - 4.2m

3) India - 2.0m

4) S.Korea - 1.9m

5) Laos - 1.8m

6) Japan - 1.8m

7) Russia - 1.5m

8 USA - 1.2m

9) Singapore - 1.1m

10) Vietnam - 1.0m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

China at 11 million, and Russia at 1.5 million, will not be back anytime soon.  12.5 million out of 39.8 million represents 31.4% of Thailand's tourism market who will not be coming back for some time. 

 

Then, Thailand has to hope the other countries will be back to previous levels, reasonably quickly, to at least put get back to around the 70% mark. 

 

Interestingly, you don't see any of the the top 10 in the bars here.  Little wonder the bars were struggling pre covid.

[kinyara]

29 minutes ago, champers said:

In this morning's Bangkok Post TAT say anywhere between 7 and 10 million this year. 713,000 arrivals up to 25th of April, then they predict at least 1 million per month for the rest of the year.

What TAT said in that article was that they are hoping to hit the 1 million+ per month from October.  They quoted the April figure as likely to be 300k which is an increase from 211k in March. Steady and gradual   rise over the next few months seems reasonable.

 

From what I've seen TAT have historically high-balled their forecasts and invariably missed their target, whereas the Bank of Thailand usually seems to err more on the side of caution with lower but what turn out more realistic expectations than TAT's numbers. Often wondered with TAT if it's a case of telling the Head Honcho what he wants to hear in Cabinet meetings rather than the likely reality of the situation.

 

 

[Yellowtail]

While I agree they tend to be enthusiastic, I think they are target-setting, not really forecasting, and I imagine everyone in the industry knows this. 

[scubascuba3]

Not big news but Bangkok Bank by walking st, popular with farang for opening accounts has disappeared and being replaced by some form of bar

[aussiexpat]

14 hours ago, Leaver said:

Interestingly, you don't see any of the the top 10 in the bars here.  Little wonder the bars were struggling pre covid.

That hilarious that you think Americans don't come to bars here ???? 

[Eff1n2ret]

As an infrequent visitor to Pattaya these days I was surprised how busy the roads were yesterday, and that seafood restaurant at the far end of Jomtien beach was packed at lunchtime - we had to stand and wait for a few minutes while a table was cleared. Foreign visitor numbers may be short of what they used to be, but the Thais are out in force.

[BritManToo]

18 hours ago, Leaver said:

Interestingly, you don't see any of the the top 10 in the bars here.  Little wonder the bars were struggling pre covid.

Russians, Japanese and Koreans have their own bars.

Indians, plenty of them around in bars.

Laos 'tourists' are found working in the bars.

Plenty of Americans in bars.

[Leaver]

5 hours ago, aussiexpat said:

That hilarious that you think Americans don't come to bars here ???? 

 

You've picked up on a typo.  That should be "many" not "any." 

 

Other than Americans, when's the last time you've sat next to a citizen from one of the other 9 countries in a bar or gogo? 

 

You see a few Japanese and Koreans, but not a lot. 

 

The top three, Chinese, Malaysians and Indians, make up 43% of the total.  When's the last time you have sat next to a guy from one of these countries in a bar? 

[BritManToo]

Free pig roast tonight at Exotic LK Metro Bar for their opening night if anyone's interested.