Brexit could affect economy for longer than COVID - BoE's Saunders

 

FILE PHOTO: A person is silhouetted as he walks past The Bank of England, amid the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in London, Britain, November 5, 2020. REUTERS/John Sibley

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Bank of England interest-rate setter Michael Saunders said the long-term effects of Brexit could have a bigger impact on companies than the coronavirus pandemic.

 

“Businesses will shake off the effect of COVID-19 as they’re temporary, but the long-term effects of Brexit could be more permanent,” Saunders said in an interview with TheBusinessDesk.com website.

 

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said on Monday that a no-deal Brexit would cause longer-term damage to Britain’s economy than the pandemic, and the impact of the change might be felt for decades.

 

Britain and the European Union are still negotiating a trade agreement ahead of the Dec. 31 expiry of a post-Brexit transition period.

 

Saunders also said Britain’s economy was unlikely to fall into a recession.

 

“It’s not worth getting too worried about recession at the moment. We had a big recovery in Q3 and there will be a dip in Q4 – but we’re only forecasting a contraction of around 2%,” he said.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-11-25

 

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The BoE said much more than this : not just long lasting, but bigger 

 

Quote

The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has warned that the economic cost of a no-deal Brexit would be bigger in the long term than the damage caused by Covid-19.

 

These are the cost estimates 

Quote

No-deal Brexit would not cause as much damage as inflicted by the pandemic earlier this year. However, the LSE modelling estimates a reduction in GDP worth 8% over a decade compared with remaining in the EU.

 

Another interesting indicator in the next months and years will be the Brexit + Covid-19 combo effect. 

 

Now you all probably know what Boris Johnson think about that : "<deleted> business" 

it is what it is...get over it, don't worry it will fix itself, enjoy Thailand, life, your wife, and many happier endings than Brexit. 

Fear not Loiner and Laughing Gravy will be along shortly to reassure us they don’t know what they’re talking about ????

Yes but its a small price to pay for sovereignty (we never lost it in the first place), taking back control (control of what?), making our own trade deals around the world (by basically copying the trade deals we had when we were in the EU) and blue passports (the colour of which we could have changed any time we wanted while IN the EU).

 

Well when I say that the only thing we have really got is the blue passports but all this upheaval and financial pain will be worth it. 

no deal....thats what Tony Abbot is there for....get with the program

 

Could. Could?

 

This is an opinion, the prediction of a salaryman who is toeing the BOE line. A guess. A hypothesis.

 

I could win the lottery. Won't be quitting the day job though. 

 

No doubt Michael will be in line for a massive end of year bonus if he keeps peddling the official BOE line and releasing this misinformation based on nothing more than the instructions of his bosses. Good boy Michael, have a pat on the head.

 

Obviously the Remainers and Rejoiners will lap this up. I can hear the cheers from here. I have bad news for them, this guys predictions will not bring about the failure that they wish upon their country. Soz 'bout that. Keep bitchin' and moanin' though, if you still haven't got over losing the referendum and leaving the EU ????.

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

 

Could. Could?

 

This is an opinion, the prediction of a salaryman who is toeing the BOE line. A guess. A hypothesis.

 

I could win the lottery. Won't be quitting the day job though. 

 

No doubt Michael will be in line for a massive end of year bonus if he keeps peddling the official BOE line and releasing this misinformation based on nothing more than the instructions of his bosses. Good boy Michael, have a pat on the head.

 

Obviously the Remainers and Rejoiners will lap this up. I can hear the cheers from here. I have bad news for them, this guys predictions will not bring about the failure that they wish upon their country. Soz 'bout that. Keep bitchin' and moanin' though, if you still haven't got over losing the referendum and leaving the EU ????.

All that hangs on your hope that ‘could’ doesn’t turn into ‘does’.

 

Presumably you have sight of the data the BoE are using as the basis of their predictions?

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

All that hangs on your hope that ‘could’ doesn’t turn into ‘does’.

 

Presumably you have sight of the data the BoE are using as the basis of their predictions?

 

 

 

 

Nearly all of the BOE Project Fear post Brexit predictions have been proved false.

 

History is a great predictor of the future. Hence I shall be ignoring these guesses from the salaryman.

Just now, JonnyF said:

 

Nearly all of the BOE Project Fear post Brexit predictions have been proved false.

 

History is a great predictor of the future. Hence I shall be ignoring these guesses from the salaryman.

Go back and check how much cash the BoE injected into the economy to offset the impacts they predicted.

 

 

2 hours ago, JonnyF said:

 

Could. Could?

 

This is an opinion, the prediction of a salaryman who is toeing the BOE line. A guess. A hypothesis.

 

I could win the lottery. Won't be quitting the day job though. 

 

No doubt Michael will be in line for a massive end of year bonus if he keeps peddling the official BOE line and releasing this misinformation based on nothing more than the instructions of his bosses. Good boy Michael, have a pat on the head.

 

Obviously the Remainers and Rejoiners will lap this up. I can hear the cheers from here. I have bad news for them, this guys predictions will not bring about the failure that they wish upon their country. Soz 'bout that. Keep bitchin' and moanin' though, if you still haven't got over losing the referendum and leaving the EU ????.

It's a universally observed economic phenomenon that the closer countries are to each other the more they will trade with each other. However, this will not be the case with the UK which will negotiate new deals with distant nations to replace trade lost with the EU because Brexit is magical!!!

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Go back and check how much cash the BoE injected into the economy to offset the impacts they predicted.

 

 

Check yourself, I'm not your secretary.

 

Get me a coffee.

22 minutes ago, placeholder said:

It's a universally observed economic phenomenon that the closer countries are to each other the more they will trade with each other. However, this will not be the case with the UK which will negotiate new deals with distant nations to replace trade lost with the EU because Brexit is magical!!!

We'll get a deal with the EU. It might take a few years but eventually they'll stop sulking like a dumped teenage girl. They just need to grow up a bit. Time is a great healer.

 

In the meantime, are you aware that it's possible to trade without an FTA?

32 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

We'll get a deal with the EU. It might take a few years but eventually they'll stop sulking like a dumped teenage girl. They just need to grow up a bit. Time is a great healer.

 

In the meantime, are you aware that it's possible to trade without an FTA?

Like a teenaged girl? Because an economy 5 times the size of the UK needs the UK more than the UK needs it? Really,?

 

36 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

We'll get a deal with the EU. It might take a few years 

 

In the meantime, are you aware that it's possible to trade without an FTA?

Yes I'm aware of that. Brexit will most likely slow the UK's economic growth. Not kill it.

This is all about talking down. Talking down the economy. Could is a very big word. Just adds to uncertainty.

 

Also, the word is used as a method of floating a policy and seeing the resultant flak. Softens the plebs.

The UK will get over it, but it will be a 10 year recovery process Brexit  I mean.

unfortunately the people on the street will see unprecedented cost of living rises in that time

Reading the dialogue/posts here it is no surprise that there is no Brexit deal.

4 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Go back and check how much cash the BoE injected into the economy to offset the impacts they predicted.

 

 

Meaningless comment.

Brit leavers will put up with a lot in order to be rid of the EU, EEC, Common Market or whatever it's calling itself these days. Britain should never have joined in the first place. It should have gone flat out to strengthen ties within the Commonwealth and the USA.

18 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

Brit leavers will put up with a lot in order to be rid of the EU, EEC, Common Market or whatever it's calling itself these days. Britain should never have joined in the first place. It should have gone flat out to strengthen ties within the Commonwealth and the USA.

 

You can't change the immediate future, and of course not the past, but YES things might have been different: right now a fringe of extreme brexiters have 100% power in the UK.

 

In the long game, the old brexiters retirees will die and simple demographics will bring the UK in close association with Europe again. I read a new term reading this thread "rejoiners". 

 

 

22 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

Brit leavers will put up with a lot in order to be rid of the EU, EEC, Common Market or whatever it's calling itself these days. Britain should never have joined in the first place. It should have gone flat out to strengthen ties within the Commonwealth and the USA.

 

You can't change the immediate future, and of course not the past, but YES things might have been different: right now a fringe of extreme brexiters have 100% power in the UK, the reality of public opinion the UK is much more balanced, with a majority now thinking brexit was a mistake in the first place. See image/video below

 

In the long game the old brexiters retirees will die and simple demographics will bring the UK in close association with Europe again. I read  an interesting term above: "rejoiners"

 

 

13 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

Brit leavers will put up with a lot in order to be rid of the EU, EEC, Common Market or whatever it's calling itself these days. Britain should never have joined in the first place. It should have gone flat out to  strengthen ties within the Commonwealth

You could always apply to rejoin the Commonwealth.

But would that not imply more foreigners having right of entry to the UK? Foreigners with an undesirable religion?

 

(this post may contain traces of sarcasm)

 

 

44 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

Brit leavers will put up with a lot in order to be rid of the EU, EEC, Common Market or whatever it's calling itself these days. Britain should never have joined in the first place. It should have gone flat out to  strengthen ties within the Commonwealth

Because nothing makes as much sense as setting up trade relations with mostly poor and distant nations. And what makes you think that those nations would want have wanted to have free trade with the UK back when? Ridiculous.

28 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

You could always apply to rejoin the Commonwealth.

But would that not imply more foreigners having right of entry to the UK? Foreigners with an undesirable religion?

 

(this post may contain traces of sarcasm)

 

 

Actually, the UK is a member of the Commonwealth. The pre-eminent member. 

38 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

You could always apply to rejoin the Commonwealth.

But would that not imply more foreigners having right of entry to the UK? Foreigners with an undesirable religion?

 

I'm not very knowledgable in matters related to the Commonwealth, but as I understand it, India's huge market would never be opened if immigration rules to the UK are not relaxed.

 

"A few poles" triggered quite a huge "take back control" reaction, I not sure how acceptable millions of indians would be 

 

Quote

The government must make it easier for Indians to come to Britain to secure a post-Brexit trade deal with one of the world’s fastest growing economies, a group of MPs have said.

 

 

Quote

“There is a tension between the FCO’s [Foreign and Commonwealth Office] promotion of a ‘global Britain’ and some wider government efforts to reduce net migration,” the foreign affairs committee says in a report.

“While the global Britain strategy is barely being communicated in India, the ‘hostile environment’ message is being heard loud and clear.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/24/ease-migration-rules-for-indians-to-win-post-brexit-deals-say-mps

21 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Brexit could affect economy for longer than COVID

Who comes up with these "news".

Covid, as bad as it is, is temporarily. Brexit not so much. And even if after some years the UK should decide that they want to join the EU again it is more than unlikely that they will get all the special conditions again which they had.

12 hours ago, Bruntoid said:

Fear not Loiner and Laughing Gravy will be along shortly to reassure us they don’t know what they’re talking about ????

Come on Grouse there have been more could have's maybe, possibly and might than you have had names on here.

Personally I don't care this

There was me thinking that the turkey was oven ready but keeps appearing to be running around with it's head cut off gobbling up everything bar covid ???? 

Just now, Laughing Gravy said:

Come on Grouse there have been more could have's maybe, possibly and might than you have had names on here.

Personally I don't care this

And my internet connection went before I finished. Another article from Reuters.

 

This is just more anchor material for the non Brits and Scottish brethren on here. They will be up all day on this juicy bit. Shame we have left the EU and I can't ever see the UK ever rejoining.