Buyers Market?

[bwpage3]

8 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

 

I got here in '98 and it seemed worse to me back then. Seems like it got much better when so many of the busses went from diesel to LPG/CNG.

The air quality figures now are the worst ever

[OneMoreFarang]

2 hours ago, bwpage3 said:

The air quality figures now are the worst ever

When did they start to measure?

 

And probably all of us are right about better or worse air quality. Bangkok is a BIG city. I am sure 25 years ago, when they started building the Skytrain, the air quality on street level on Sukhumvit was worse than now.

But now, since about 3 years, I have sometimes (in Jan and Feb) problems with breathing in a high floor of a condominium. So maybe 100m above ground the air quality now is worse than before. But maybe I am just 25 years older and feel it more than a long time ago. ???? 

[Yellowtail]

4 hours ago, bwpage3 said:

The air quality figures now are the worst ever

 

Well, you are certainly welcome to believe what you like, I'll stick with what I see.

 

Who's "figures" are you referring to anyway?

[Yellowtail]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

When did they start to measure?

 

And probably all of us are right about better or worse air quality. Bangkok is a BIG city. I am sure 25 years ago, when they started building the Skytrain, the air quality on street level on Sukhumvit was worse than now.

But now, since about 3 years, I have sometimes (in Jan and Feb) problems with breathing in a high floor of a condominium. So maybe 100m above ground the air quality now is worse than before. But maybe I am just 25 years older and feel it more than a long time ago. ???? 

 

I'm 25 years older AND 25 years heaver and it does not seem that bad to me. Maybe I'm not reading enough reports....

[pubba]

I recently got a small inheritance from my father and was interested in buying a condo in Chonburi. 
Was surprised that prices are still fairly high after a year of Covid and reduced tourism,, business closures etc.

There ate some agents on Pattaya real estate groups offering finance deals - pay 100k and move in with 5-10 year finance deals available.

However, I think it would be best to wait another 6 months and see if prices start to drop.

Missed out on a place in Jomtien that had 2 bedrooms, newly painted, new sofa, beds, ac units and huge tv. Was only 1.2m baht and was chatting to someone who commented on the listing who was offered the place for only 1.1m baht. 
The condo was old and a bit disheveled on the outside but the condo looked pretty good on the inside. 

[Pravda]

20 minutes ago, pubba said:

However, I think it would be best to wait another 6 months and see if prices start to drop.

 

So, you think the prices will drop once Chinese are 6 months closer to arriving? 

 

 

The best time to buy was today. 

[Jack Hna]

Does intrigue me when they put emergency sell and they are asking for 300k less on a 4mb property.

 

Guy mentioned a fire sale prompted him to buy a condo unit for 1.5 but the condo is 9 years old and was purchased for 2m brand new.

 

To me if you are looking for an emergency sale it's 40% off minimum.

 

After all it is their emergency not yours.

 

[Pattaya Spotter]

Buyer’s market...I know a Pattaya condo that sold for 3M baht in December 2019 and is selling for 1M baht in January 2021. [Yes...66% less in one Covid year's time.] (It sold new for about 5.5M in 2010.)  Yeah, I'd say it's a buyers market.

[OneMoreFarang]

3 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Buyer’s market...I know a Pattaya condo that sold for 3M baht in December 2019 and is selling for 1M baht in January 2021. [Yes...66% less in one Covid year's time.] (It sold new for about 5.5M in 2010.)  Yeah, I'd say it's a buyers market.

Is is finished in a finished building?

And is that only one unit and a special exception?

(I don't know and I don't assume. I ask.)

[chrisandsu]

3 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Buyer’s market...I know a Pattaya condo that sold for 3M baht in December 2019 and is selling for 1M baht in January 2021. [Yes...66% less in one Covid year's time.] (It sold new for about 5.5M in 2010.)  Yeah, I'd say it's a buyers market.

Where is it ? I haven’t seen any prices fold like they should be . 

[Pattaya Spotter]

41 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Is is finished in a finished building?

And is that only one unit and a special exception?

(I don't know and I don't assume. I ask.)

Yes...and there are some extenuating circumstances surrounding the sale but still...66% drop in a year! As the price history for this unit shows, it's been a buyers market, at least in Pattaya, for over a decade.

[Pattaya Spotter]

22 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

Where is it ? I haven’t seen any prices fold like they should be . 

I believe I said Pattaya...on Pratumnak Hill.

[scubascuba3]

1 hour ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I believe I said Pattaya...on Pratumnak Hill.

The condos I see that seem cheaper are nearly always Company name, at that point everyone switches off

[Pattaya Spotter]

21 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

The condos I see that seem cheaper are nearly always Company name, at that point everyone switches off

This unit is in the foreign quota.

[scubascuba3]

1 minute ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

This unit is in the foreign quota.

If it was 5.5m and now 1m sounds like you should buy it quick. Have you verified that 5.5m? check neothai 

[Pattaya Spotter]

18 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

If it was 5.5m and now 1m sounds like you should buy it quick. Have you verified that 5.5m? check neothai 

Yes, I know for a fact that it sold for 5.5M around 2010...it was used by the owner as a Pattaya pied-a-terre for about 5 years...was put on the market around 2015...had some showings and interest over the years until the owner, just wanting to get rid of it, took an offer of 3M in late 2019. The current owner/seller has run into serious financial difficulties and needs to raise cash quickly so is selling it in a private sale for 1M. The last owner also didn't maintain the unit so there is maybe 100-150k the new buyer will have to spend in cleanup and repair costs. In today's market, without a rush sale, it's maybe worth somewhere between 2.5-3.5M. (The unit is over 100 sqm and towards the top of Pratumnak Hill, with a semi-obstructed ocean view.) 

 

So keep an eye out there buyers...this is the best buyers market in 2 decades; and if you're a seller, I hope you're a monkey who likes peanuts.

 

 

[Orton Rd]

Another OP who never came back on his thread, not even to say thanks for the advice, seen a lot of this. It'll be should a pay sinsot again next.

[najomtiensun]

If you look at Baht Sold you can see one's that have sold quite easily - I did a quick search for Pattaya and found 6 had they were nice looking units, in good locations at attractive but not seriously out of kilter prices. So good stuff is still selling if it's priced to sell. 

[Seeall]

On 1/12/2021 at 3:47 PM, Orton Rd said:

Another OP who never came back on his thread, not even to say thanks for the advice, seen a lot of this. It'll be should a pay sinsot again next.

Its the modern way .....  seek and take and not give... not even a thanks...

[hrrecruiter]

On 1/12/2021 at 3:47 PM, Orton Rd said:

Another OP who never came back on his thread, not even to say thanks for the advice, seen a lot of this. It'll be should a pay sinsot again next.

 

Well, it sparked some interesting convo regardless, I benefited out of it, so I'm thanking everyone who chimed in.

 

Now, my take, I'm about to pull the trigger on a 5yo condo downtown BKK, mostly to my own use but also hoping to at some point sell at a small profit.

 

Im considering some positives and negatives

 

Positives

*25-35% off peak market price (price high 100s k per sqm vs mid 200s, luxury development downtown)

*hedge against inflation in this helicopter money days

*locked in some profits from the equity markets

 

However, Im still considering some downsides too

*THB feels very strong right now. Hard to see getting stronger

*Who low can this go? Deals are everywhere, Im renting at 50% off right now 

*with 50% off rent, I feel I already locked in some gains

*God knows how difficult would be to sell this when needed. ITs a substation amount of my networth (~30%) 

*Paying cash upfront, opportunity cost for more opportunities.

 

Anyone can contribute with more positives and negatives about the current market? As of now, I will just throw a low ball offer and see if owner sells, let him decide for me ????

 

 

 

 

 

 

[2009]

Yes, it is a buyer's market. There is soo much choice.

 

Bad investment tho. Too many buildings available, so the prices cannot go up.

 

Thai property market over last 10 years is up almost 50% whereas even the SP500 is up almost 300%

 

 

[spidermike007]

The pain will be felt for many years to come. I anticipate condo prices to drop by half. A friend of mine recently moved to Pattaya. He looked at condos in Jomtien. He walked into one of the nicest towers, looked at a 36th floor unit with panoramic views, and when he was quoted 28,000 a month, he offered 10,000. They settled on 13,000. He said the agent more or less admitted the building was nearly empty, and they could not rent to sell anything, at this time.

 

A good friend told me that a Thai girlfriend of his, works as a senior level executive for one of Thailand's biggest developers. She told him that they have reduced their building by 90% of what it was pre-Covid, which was around 100 developments a year. She said they cannot rent or sell anything right now. Zero. They are down to a skeleton staff, and have stopped most of their developments in their tracks. 

 

A friend of mine recently offered a homeowner 15% less than she was asking, and in exchange offered to pay a years rent in advance. She refused. Now, the home has been vacant for five months already, as it is an extremely soft rental market. 

 

I am not a math professor. But the 15% would have represented less than two months rent. So, unless her phone was ringing off the hook, with potential renters, his offer was a good one. 

 

Pride? Lack of common sense and reason? She just does not need the money, and is not sincere about renting the house? One can often rack the mind trying to figure out the reasoning here. Or lack thereof. 

 

 

Demand is way down. The Chinese market is nearly gone, as they cannot even visit to inspect units they have bought. Russians and others are very hesitant to commit. And the long term tourists are gone too. So, who does that leave? Wealthy Thais, many of whom see the market collapsing, and would rather wait and see how all of this shakes out, and ex-pats, many of whom are smart enough to be shopping for bargains right now. 

 

Anyone interested in buying a condo right now, would be better off waiting awhile. Timing is on your side. Time is now your ally. The economy is going remain devastated here, for a very long time to come. And the longer this goes on, the more people are going to be affected by it, and the more desperate some will become. For the wealthy it barely matters. But, there are many middle class who have money invested, and there are alot of Chinese and Russians who bought, and cannot even visit Thailand. Some of them will want to unload their properties. Wait. The condo market is severely overbuilt. And demand is low, for all but the top buildings. 

 

The long term fallout from this insane economic shutdown and the Covid restrictions, will be felt for many years to come. 

[OneMoreFarang]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Anyone interested in buying a condo right now, would be better off waiting awhile. Timing is on your side. Time is now your ally. The economy is going remain devastated here, for a very long time to come.

Thanks for your interesting post. It seems you know what you are writing about.

I am interested about waiting for awhile. How long? Months? Years?

Personally I guess tourists and other visitors will return to Thailand by the end of the year. Probably not as many as before but a lot compared to now. So I would guess that i.e. in 6 months there will be already considerable more people who want to rent and maybe buy. At least not fewer than now. So why do you think the prices will continue to go down and what is your estimation for how long.

My personal concern is about Bangkok, Sukhumvit Area.

Thanks

 

[Yellowtail]

6 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Thanks for your interesting post. It seems you know what you are writing about.

I am interested about waiting for awhile. How long? Months? Years?

Personally I guess tourists and other visitors will return to Thailand by the end of the year. Probably not as many as before but a lot compared to now. So I would guess that i.e. in 6 months there will be already considerable more people who want to rent and maybe buy. At least not fewer than now. So why do you think the prices will continue to go down and what is your estimation for how long.

My personal concern is about Bangkok, Sukhumvit Area.

Thanks

 

 

Are fewer Thais living in Thailand? 

[spidermike007]

8 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Thanks for your interesting post. It seems you know what you are writing about.

I am interested about waiting for awhile. How long? Months? Years?

Personally I guess tourists and other visitors will return to Thailand by the end of the year. Probably not as many as before but a lot compared to now. So I would guess that i.e. in 6 months there will be already considerable more people who want to rent and maybe buy. At least not fewer than now. So why do you think the prices will continue to go down and what is your estimation for how long.

My personal concern is about Bangkok, Sukhumvit Area.

Thanks

 

 

This will likely be a two to five year shake out. The financial devastation to the economy here is far worse than the 1997 crash. And it will be sustained. Massive unemployment. Millions are out of work. 

 

Tourism will not rebound to any significant degree. The people who made up 70% of Thailand tourism arrivals were crushed by Covid and the economic shutdown. The lower to middle income Chinese, Indians and Malaysians. I predict no more than 5 million tourists annually, by 2025. Let us not forget. There were already countless issues affecting tourism long before Covid. And the two year shutdown will only compound that. Trillions will be lost. 

 

Factories are closing. Developers are pulling the plug on projects. Investors are fleeing. New foreign investment is dropping. Japanese companies are moving factories elsewhere. Malls are faltering. Condos are barely selling, at all. 

 

Wait. Sellers who need to sell will become desperate. A year. Two years. Or longer. 

[OneMoreFarang]

53 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

 

This will likely be a two to five year shake out. The financial devastation to the economy here is far worse than the 1997 crash. And it will be sustained. Massive unemployment. Millions are out of work. 

 

Tourism will not rebound to any significant degree. The people who made up 70% of Thailand tourism arrivals were crushed by Covid and the economic shutdown. The lower to middle income Chinese, Indians and Malaysians. I predict no more than 5 million tourists annually, by 2025. Let us not forget. There were already countless issues affecting tourism long before Covid. And the two year shutdown will only compound that. Trillions will be lost. 

 

Factories are closing. Developers are pulling the plug on projects. Investors are fleeing. New foreign investment is dropping. Japanese companies are moving factories elsewhere. Malls are faltering. Condos are barely selling, at all. 

 

Wait. Sellers who need to sell will become desperate. A year. Two years. Or longer. 

Thanks, I would love to see what others here think about your prediction.

Personally I know too little about these things. I better listen.

[chrisandsu]

4 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Thanks, I would love to see what others here think about your prediction.

Personally I know too little about these things. I better listen.

It’s all crystal ball guess work . The Thais I know are not out of work or struggling . Only the tourist sector and there is more then enough low paying jobs going around for them not to be out of work . 

[Surelynot]

On 12/30/2020 at 8:23 AM, hellohello said:

Is it a good time to buy now in Thailand?

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times......

 

It is never a good time to buy in Thailand.........however, this could be the least worst time.

 

Unless you are mental or staggeringly wealthy.....RENT.

[Yellowtail]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Thanks, I would love to see what others here think about your prediction.

Personally I know too little about these things. I better listen.

 

There are very few people that KNOW what the/any market is going to do. Anyone that does KNOW what the market is going to do is incredibly wealthy. 

 

If you know anyone that got incredibly wealthy from investing in real-estate, you might ask them, but keep in mind, they may have just gotten lucky. 

 

It's always a good time to buy a great property that you love and can afford.