If Sinovac experiences has demonstrated such varying low effective rates on COVID protection how can the PM talk up all's going to be great when this vaccine is administered to the population with the possibility that 50% of the recipients won't be protected from the virus.

5 minutes ago, berrec said:

If Sinovac experiences has demonstrated such varying low effective rates on COVID protection how can the PM talk up all's going to be great when this vaccine is administered to the population with the possibility that 50% of the recipients won't be protected from the virus.

It's all there is you care to read!

 

The Prime Minister said the country has already pre-purchased 26 million doses of AstraZeneca’s vaccine, with plans to purchase 35 million more COVID-19 vaccines, in order to vaccinate half the country’s population by the end of this year.

According to a recent NIDA Poll conducted amongst his friends, the Thai PM is proud to announce:

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand not broke from COVID-19 measures

 

I will never understand either. Thailand has large foreign currency and gold reserves. I checked recently. But their fiscal dicipline has not helped and personal debt levels must be at breaking point for many. Any democratic government would typically worry about political instability.

It's Thailand. Don't believe anything until it's been officially denied.

Many ordinary Thai people have lost their jobs, some of them are depending on hand outs of food and millions have zero income at the moment, but the damned politicians and government officials are in business as usual. They see no work cuts, salary cuts or financial consequences, just continuing taking their bribes, stealing people's tax money.

 

Disgusting. 

THAILAND  you shall never walk alone !!

just get rid of this stupid FIT-TO-FLY form !!!

Now let me see if I remember correctly...was this the same general who fermented a coup against the elected government of Thailand,  promised  free and fair elections within 3 months, announced that he had no aspirations to hold political office, forced changes in the constitution "granting" seats to the military, suppressed campaigning once the election was finally heal 4 years after his coup and outlawed political opposition????? I certainly believe EVERYTHING that comes out of his mouth.    

51 minutes ago, smudger1951 said:

I will never understand either. Thailand has large foreign currency and gold reserves. I checked recently. But their fiscal dicipline has not helped and personal debt levels must be at breaking point for many. Any democratic government would typically worry about political instability.

There is Political instability, but this is not a democratic government we are talking about it is a Military dominated government backed by the current military and RTP who can trample on rights with impunity.

6 hours ago, webfact said:

The start of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Thailand has sparked optimism

 

Blimey, given that, so far, they've vaccinated roughly the same number of people as the UK does in a typical hour, it evidently doesn't take much to "spark optimism" about Thailand's economic recovery, lol.

So there is 473 billion baht in the bank, subtract the 332 billion baht Thai airways debt, that leaves 141 billion baht, then Captain Pugwash & Buzz Lightyear want their submarines and moon rocket ???????????? Best get Diane 'Abacus' Abbott to do the accounts ????????

5 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

PM: Thailand not broke from COVID-19 measures

A lot of the inhabitants of Thailand are broke from Covid-19 measures, but, surprisingly, the politicians running the country are most certainly not affected. 

Any different from any other country???? I think not....

If they have extra $, wish they would spend some of it on aerial tankers and dump some water on these fires. We're dying here.

2 hours ago, hotchilli said:

But Pipats plan is to open up the country to international travelers by June... different hymn sheet perhaps?

Quite apt, regarding hymns and a contagious disease. Probably not "Abide With Me', more likely 'Nearer My God To Thee'

OK , not broke from covid 19 , yet I am not convinced when coupled with the high Thai baht which has been the case even before covid 19 rose its head .

lot of down and out Thai's asking me for money, more than usual.  what is the government doing about it.  not much.

So far, four importers have filed for approval of their vaccine with the FDA, namely AstraZeneca, the Government Pharmaceutical Organization, Janssen-Cilag, and Biogenetech.

 

Why can't he name the vaccines in a simple way that most Thais will understand, rather than speaking in code? 

 

The only recognisable name is Astra Zeneca. 

 

The GPO vaccine AFAIK is something being developed locally by Mahidol U and others to be manufactured not imported by GPO. Unfortunately this vaccine, excellent though it may be, has virtually no chance of ever doing stage 3 trials as poor countries with high enough infection rates are now receiving AZ vaccine under the WHO COVAX scheme.  Why would they want to trial a vaccine from a bunch of Thai unknowns and have to give people placebos when they can give them AZ free or at very low cost?

 

Janssen-Cilag is the J&J one shot vaccine which is a good move and has already been reported.

 

Biogenetech is a Thai company which seems to be applying to import the Bharat vaccine developed in India.

 

Nothing new here and one of them is a Thai non-starter listed only for face reasons soon to be dropped without further mention just like the Chula vaccine from tobacco leaves that has never been mentioned again after the health minster tried to raise B500m from the public to build a factory to produce it in December.

 

The only hope for expats so far is that the J&J vaccine will be imported by private hospitals and sold for B10k ++.  COVID tests that they import for about B200-300 are sold for B4,000.  So expect up to 20x mark-up. Even though it might be perfectly good, I am not sure if expats will want to pay big bucks for the Bharat vaccine.  So far no move to supply private hospitals with AZ vaccine.  Most of that will be locally produced by Siam Biosciences, which will only start production in May or June and it is as yet unclear how much they will be able to produce per month as a new and inexperienced vaccine producer (several of the AZ licensees have had difficulties scaling up production) .  At any rate they are a subcontractor of AZ for the region and AZ has obligations to supply most of that production to other SE Asian countries under the COVAX scheme.  Since Thailand has a low infection rate and refused to join the COVAX scheme, it is a low priority for supply by AZ, even from the locally produced does.

The government is not broke based on the criteria listed but it has nearly reached its constitutional limit on government debt only 5 months into the fiscal year. What has caused this has not been disclosed but it is thought to be Social Security which has made unprecedented payments to unemployed while reducing monthly contributions from employers and employees, in addition to losing contributions altogether from the newly unemployed, particularly in the tourist industry.  Apart from COVID Social Security has always been a problem waiting to happen due to incompetence and alleged corruption in the management.  Actuarial assumptions have always been far too optimistic and the investment management of the funds has always been incompetent and possibly corrupt.  All these factors lead to a significant shortfall of assets vs liabilities.  Social Security has now been in existence long enough that the first pensioners have retired and started drawing their meagre B4,000 a month Social Security "pensions" and new pensioners are being added at an accelerating rate putting an enormous pressure on the scheme. It was always going to have to be bailed out by the government and is not something that can be blamed on the current government.  Now COVID will provide some camouflage. 

 

The fact remains that the government will have to make some tough decisions either to amend the law to allow for a greater government debt ceiling and risk being lambasted by the opposition or cut spending on less urgent items, such as military procurement. It will be interesting to see how they tackle it.

If people have to pay for their vaccines, then all of the vaccines should be

available in Thailand for people to buy.  Are the Pfizer and Muderna vaccines

getting to Thailand at all?  With all the people who were associated with the

Tourism sector out of work and hotels depending only on the domestic tourism,

I am surprised  that the country is really in such good shape.   I just hope that by

the Winter of 22 to 23 I will feel safe enough to go to Thailand again as a tourist.

   Geezer

3 hours ago, smedly said:

Time to start converting some of those massive foreign reserves you claim to have into BAHT - the result will be dilution and the baht will tumble

 

I predicted this over a year ago and I am still 100% confident it will happen, why am I so confident ?

 

not hard to figure out

 

 

Of course all the intervention dollars bought by BoT in the last couple of years will come in useful to flatten out any sudden pressure on the baht. Quite reasonable to expect baht to weaken somewhat from here (on higher USD interest rates) but a rout looks unlikely at this time.

1 hour ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

If people have to pay for their vaccines, then all of the vaccines should be

available in Thailand for people to buy.  Are the Pfizer and Muderna vaccines

getting to Thailand at all?  With all the people who were associated with the

Tourism sector out of work and hotels depending only on the domestic tourism,

I am surprised  that the country is really in such good shape.   I just hope that by

the Winter of 22 to 23 I will feel safe enough to go to Thailand again as a tourist.

   Geezer

 

 

Pfizer and Moderna are not interested in the Thai market. They have huge orders developed countries that they are still struggling to supply.  The minus 70 degree storage is a problem for third world tropical counties and all the hassle and corruption of getting approved by the Thai FDA is not worth the candle.  Pfizer did try in India and was the first vaccine producer to apply for registration.  Months later the Indians rejected their application giving spurious reasons but probably because Pfizer refused to pay bribes which may be a reason they are not interested in the Thai market.  

There will be delays from the western vaccines as usual because the priority goes to the western countries. 

 

There was already a delay in the Astrazeneca.

 

So it will take next year for Thailand's economy to recover while the Baht is still super strong.

5 hours ago, gunderhill said:

_{I  have  no idea  if  Thailand is  broke  but since  Iv'e  been here 2005   I see endless   large road construction/ Train construction projects.}

Thailand is not broke,no we're near.The Foreign Reserve Account (FRA) is excellent and covers all of the  foreign dept easily

4 minutes ago, EricTh said:

There will be delays from the western vaccines as usual because the priority goes to the western countries. 

 

There was already a delay in the Astrazeneca.

 

So it will take next year for Thailand's economy to recover while the Baht is still super strong.

Only because foreign currencies have lost their value. 

9 hours ago, webfact said:

Prime Minister and Minister of Defence Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha reassured the general public in a specific PM Podcast on Thailand’s financial stability, citing the latest evaluation from the Big Thee credit rating agencies S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch.

The  very fact that Prayut deemed it necessary to make a specific Publlc Announcement via a Podcast, suggests to me that there are concerns being raises over the Countries Financial Stability.

I do not mean from the rank and file population, but from much higher Organisations.

Maybe the 3 Credit Rating Agencies that Prayut cited are about to down grade the Countries Credit Rating, which would adversely affect any FDI into the Country.

Just my take on it.

8 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

A lot of the inhabitants of Thailand are broke from Covid-19 measures, but, surprisingly, the politicians running the country are most certainly not affected. 

Agreed, you have to have been 'broke' to understand what it means.  Most of that lot will never understand.

25 minutes ago, Percy P said:

Thailand is not broke,no we're near.The Foreign Reserve Account (FRA) is excellent and covers all of the  foreign dept easily

I don't think foreign debt is the problem.  Its easy for a country to appear to be doing well itself whilst a good proportion of its citizens go hungry - that is happening right now, fact.

 

Having in effect, no real social welfare programme, it matters not that in the real world, people are going broke, shops and businesses are closing - that only costs a few billion in lost taxes.  The country's bank balance doesn't reflect that state of the people - it only reflects itself.

Obviously, not reading the Bangkok Post.

 

We (the government) depletes the current fiscal year at the end of the month.

 

No more money.  

 

Government shut down, reduction in office hours, days off with no pay, or another cuop?

6 hours ago, gunderhill said:

I  have  no idea  if  Thailand is  broke  but since  Iv'e  been here 2005   I see endless   large road construction/ Train construction projects.

CM has been doing new road pavement everywhere. Also sidewalks, but it seems it was an aesthetic for some big person coming here to see. All that I can see is there are 15 workers and someone is making a heck of a lot of money. It is definitely not fueling the peoples pockets. 

This all sounds so rosy, I feel much more secure now that the government has assured us of this!!

 

I daren't ask the local street/shop/bar/restaurant vendors if they feel the same ????

Guaranteed at least one <deleted> moment everyday in Thailand ????