Thailand braces for heaviest rainfall in 30 years

[spidermike007]

13 hours ago, connda said:

Let it flood.  The rice farmers will get two or three good crops in this year if they aren't washed away.  Never know as many of the rural irrigation-ways haven't been dredged and the banks reinforced since Buddha-knows-when.  Last year in our Tambon I watched a levy give way after a two day spell of rain.  Nothing spectacular but someone upstream opened the flood gates and away goes the levies and rice fields.  I didn't feel too bad.  The farmer who got flooded out shot one of our temple dogs.  Karma?  Yeah?  The dog lived; most of his rice did too. 
 

I seriously doubt one incurs much karma for relieving a soi dog or its misery. Many towns in Thailand deliberately cull these populations, and kudos to them. It is a different story of the dogs are healthy and well fed. Where we live they are mangy, malnourished and a hazard. 

 

As far as rainfall goes, it is likely a guess. Not sure what kind of data exists, to make a determination like this, other than it being an El Niño year, or not. 

 

The latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centers of Long-Range Forecasts indicate a moderate likelihood (65%) that the La Niña event will continue into February-April. The odds shift rapidly thereafter, indicating a 70% chance that the tropical Pacific will return to ENSO-neutral conditions by the April-June 2021 season. 

 

https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/el-niñola-niña-update

 

[sandyf]

16 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

So already predicting and forecasting for the next month.  Just like predicting on the number of tourists that will arrive and then predicting on when Covid will go away.  Can't wrap my head around a future prediction on the weather.  A meteorologist is just like a politician, they can keep their jobs because they have a 50/50 chance of being correct and are never penalized when the forecast is different then what they said.

To some people, particularly on this forum, the forecast must always be right and the source held to account. May be better if no news was posted.

 

It was an embarrassment for Mr Fish, whose name became synonymous with wrong predictions.

But scientists have now said that even today's supercomputers may not have been able to predict the storm precisely.

https://news.sky.com/story/michael-fish-got-the-storm-of-1987-wrong-but-modern-supercomputers-may-have-missed-it-too-11076659

[Grusa]

They have dug up Sukhumvit all the way from NaJomtien to Sattahip, to widen the road. The rain a few days ago turned the works to swamp. It will be weeks, months or years before the job is finished. It will be interesting to watch the effect of biblical rain on the progress of the works!

[sandyf]

17 hours ago, SiamRead said:

If they predict the highest rainfall in more than 30 years, it's good ! But why must there be a warning  ?

Preparation?

One has to assume you were not here in 2011 when the supermarket shelves were empty.

I for one am straight off to the beer wholesaler.

[sandyf]

11 hours ago, billd766 said:

How about a warning for flash flooding, landslides, roads and bridges being washed away for starters. Damage to houses and crops is possible as well.

 

It gives farmers and householders a heads up on what may happen so that they can prepare the best they can. It also alerts village chiefs to keep an eye on th elderly people living alone who may need help.

If you use this link and change the area to the one nearest to you you may get a better understanding.

 

https://www.tmd.go.th/en/province.php?id=8

 

For the next week KPP is forecasted to get 10% to 40% chance of heavy rain. I heard a lot of thunder to the north west of us this afternoon but nothing came our way.

 

 

From the 1st January 2021, Kamphaeng Phet province has only had 49mm of rain and 46mm fell in one day.

 

We have been living in  rural KPP for nearly 17 years and 2020 was the driest of all since the big rains of 2011.

Yes Bill, bit the same, our deeper well ran out a couple of weeks ago, a bit earlier than it did April 2012.

Those that never saw the floods of 2011 have no idea of the devastation, how many vehicles written off and DM closed for a few months. The supply chain broke down due flooded roads creating many shortages.

If we are in for the same again people would be well advised to prepare.

[ParkerN]

Just now, Wiggy said:

Only 29% of the water in the dams is useable? That doesn’t seem very efficient. And why is the other 71% unusable. What’s wrong with it? 

 

The Thai syndrome strikes again...

 

Not the first time you will have seen it in all of it's glory. Nor shall it be the last.

 

Sadly.

[ParkerN]

7 hours ago, HiSoLowSoNoSo said:

Time to order all the boats that will be used for pushing the water from the rivers into the sea fast. Great that MR "propeller plod" Science and Technology Minister Plodprasop Suraswadi is out of jail.

 

Yep. And the great spectacle is on again. This time, perhaps they should prevail upon passing strangers to dip their hands in and 'woosh' the water downstream.

 

Worth a try. Sure, the world will giggle but they're only foreigners anyway, what do they know about Thai culture?

[sandyf]

2 hours ago, PGSan said:

What does ‘efficiency’ mean in this context?  The 71% is the same water, so there is nothing wrong with it.  It is simply not accessible as it is impossible to get the water level in the reservoir down below some minimum.

Quite, the other thing is they are talking about 4 reservoirs so the amount of unusable water will be greater than for just one.

[hotchilli]

17 hours ago, keith101 said:

The Meteorological Department has warned that from early May, the average rainfall would be the highest in more than 30 years. Where is TAT mentioned ?

A little lateral thinking is required... T.A.T.... projected figures.

[peleid]

17 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

So already predicting and forecasting for the next month.  Just like predicting on the number of tourists that will arrive and then predicting on when Covid will go away.  Can't wrap my head around a future prediction on the weather.  A meteorologist is just like a politician, they can keep their jobs because they have a 50/50 chance of being correct and are never penalized when the forecast is different then what they said.

No different to UK, remember those famous words from Michael Fish

[LittleBear57]

Tropical storm Vamco dropped a foot of rain locally around Sattahip in 24 hours about 4 years ago. Caused some serious flooding and a friends garden wall got washed away and his house flooded. Fingers crossed it won't happen again.

 

Looked at some of the local reservoirs and they are empty. They are shallow too and could have been dredged out in preparation of the rainy season but that of course requires planning. So it will be flood, drought, flood drought each year until they pull their fingers out.

[0815]

17 hours ago, keith101 said:

The Meteorological Department has warned that from early May, the average rainfall would be the highest in more than 30 years. Where is TAT mentioned ?

You didn't understand his joke? ???? I guess ...

[mran66]

17 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

there is every year a lot of time to maintain rivers and dams, but as usual they only will do it when the country is flooded.. after the flooding the problems are solved again..

 

 

Applies to pretty much anything that would need to be maintained esp infrastructure of any kind.

 

Thai logic. 

[Misterwhisper]

17 hours ago, keith101 said:

The Meteorological Department has warned that from early May, the average rainfall would be the highest in more than 30 years. Where is TAT mentioned ?

Thinking outside the box sometimes helps with comprehending tongue-in-cheek remarks, keith101.

[bkkcanuck8]

18 hours ago, SiamRead said:

If they predict the highest rainfall in more than 30 years, it's good ! But why must there be a warning  ?

Well, if the water reaches more than 100% capacity because there was no warning.... I am sure you would be on here saying how badly managed the situation was would you not?

[Kwasaki]

Bring it on reservoirs, moats and ponds and lakes need topping up so dry in Sukhothai. 

Edited April 3, 2021 by Kwasaki

[asiasurfer]

Good. More rain, less tourists... 

[ParkerN]

Just now, LittleBear57 said:

Tropical storm Vamco dropped a foot of rain locally around Sattahip in 24 hours about 4 years ago. Caused some serious flooding and a friends garden wall got washed away and his house flooded. Fingers crossed it won't happen again.

 

Looked at some of the local reservoirs and they are empty. They are shallow too and could have been dredged out in preparation of the rainy season but that of course requires planning. So it will be flood, drought, flood drought each year until they pull their fingers out.

 

Planning?

 

Wossat?

[ParkerN]

Just now, bkkcanuck8 said:

Well, if the water reaches more than 100% capacity because there was no warning....

 

That's why dams have a drain plug n'est ce pas?

 

So they can create more capacity in anticipation of the 30-year high rainfall which was predicted 2 months in advance...

 

Sorry... wasn't thinking...

[Harry Fingerling]

Y

 

 

All perspective tourists from May must provide an ‘Ark covenant’ along with all other documents.

Edited April 3, 2021 by Harry Fingerling

[Nanaplaza666]

18 hours ago, SiamRead said:

If they predict the highest rainfall in more than 30 years, it's good ! But why must there be a warning  ?

Maybe because of all the waterfloods that could be happening so people can prepare for what's coming . If it's coming or not (predicting a month in front is the same as predicting the lottery nr's) but anywho better to be prepared and not happening , then not being prepared and then we all know what many provinces will look like . 

[Bradmeister]

Professional Sooth Sayers. They evidentally like making predictions! Just as TAT enjoys making predictions.

 

I think we (the forum members) should have a predictions committee/ commission.   

 

Let the Speculation, Allegations and Conclusions begin!

 

American resident predicts more Bedazzelment by Thai government predictions and more befuddlement by the Thai government's Baffling statements!

[SunsetT]

19 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

So already predicting and forecasting for the next month.  Just like predicting on the number of tourists that will arrive and then predicting on when Covid will go away.  Can't wrap my head around a future prediction on the weather.  A meteorologist is just like a politician, they can keep their jobs because they have a 50/50 chance of being correct and are never penalized when the forecast is different then what they said.

I recall watching a documentary 'Horizon' or the like in the UK, and they claimed that, because of the 'chaos' principle,  weather could not be predicted more than 11 days ahead. 

[cjinchiangrai]

Send all of it to Chiang Rai when it gets here, the drought is getting pretty desperate.

 

Edited April 3, 2021 by cjinchiangrai

[nauseus]

16 minutes ago, Bradmeister said:

Professional Sooth Sayers. They evidentally like making predictions! Just as TAT enjoys making predictions.

 

I think we (the forum members) should have a predictions committee/ commission.   

 

Let the Speculation, Allegations and Conclusions begin!

 

American resident predicts more Bedazzelment by Thai government predictions and more befuddlement by the Thai government's Baffling statements!

 

Even more confusion in the stars then.

[sweatalot]

1. April has been two days ago

[sweatalot]

Just now, sweatalot said:

Am I confused? I thought

1. April has been two days ago

 

[straylight]

Clean air at last.

[Wiggy]

4 hours ago, PGSan said:

What does ‘efficiency’ mean in this context?  The 71% is the same water, so there is nothing wrong with it.  It is simply not accessible as it is impossible to get the water level in the reservoir down below some minimum.

OK, poor design then. 

[onekoolguy]

19 hours ago, SiamRead said:

If they predict the highest rainfall in more than 30 years, it's good ! But why must there be a warning  ?

After reading the headline I was looking outside for signs of the coming storm!

Then I read the rest of the article! LOL