Thailand says Bangkok COVID-19 outbreak may take months to contain

[sambum]

On 4/9/2021 at 7:43 PM, dbrenn said:

You too. Just you keep on following 'the science' if it comforts you, even though scientists disagree with each other and don't understand what effect their deductions have on society as a whole. In delegating decisions to scientists, politicians are guilty of dereliction of duty, lazy and useless as they are.

I would rather that decisions were taken by somebody who knows what they are talking about e.g. the WHO, and the US Surgeon General, who at least had the common sense not to blame the spread of Covid on "dirty unwashed farangs"!!! 

Edited April 10, 2021 by sambum

[ozimoron]

7 minutes ago, sambum said:

If it had been a smaller less affluent country to blame, I am sure that the World's media would have been all over it like a rash! 

 

What purpose does it serve to blame any country for a virus which originates there? As I understand it, the coronavirus likely jumped from bats to another animal and then to humans. That animal hasn't yet been identified.

[dbrenn]

9 minutes ago, sambum said:

I would rather that decisions were taken by somebody who knows what they are talking about e.g. the WHO, and the US Surgeon General, who at least had the common sense not to blame the spread of Covid on "dirty unwashed farangs"!!! 

It's daft and unfair to say that Thais blame Covid on farangs. They don't.

[dbrenn]

21 minutes ago, sambum said:

That's like asking does the Holocaust really matter now!

 

If it had been a smaller less affluent country to blame, I am sure that the World's media would have been all over it like a rash! 

What's the point of blaming any country for Covid? This kind of thing can start anywhere - there were even reports that the Spanish Flu first crossed over to humans from pigs in the US, travelling with troops to Europe. Diseases can originate anywhere, and are accidental, so who really cares? 

[sezze]

11 minutes ago, dbrenn said:

What's the point of blaming any country for Covid? This kind of thing can start anywhere - there were even reports that the Spanish Flu first crossed over to humans from pigs in the US, travelling with troops to Europe. Diseases can originate anywhere, and are accidental, so who really cares? 

100% true . You can only blame China to keep it under the radar when they noticed and lying about the real numbers , not the origin . Virus are everywhere , and they mutate and jump species all the time . Once a while a mutation and species jump is working "good" and if the situation is right ( meaning high R ratio , in a high density population ) then it jumps off . Has done it before and will happen more and more ( we with more and more people on this planet , and travel faster and more then ever ) .

China is probably the origin , but even that isn't 100% sure . The bats which this coronavirus originated from is living in many places in Asia , including Thailand ( infact they found precursors of Covid19 strain in Thailand in samples from a few y ago ) .

[DavisH]

On 4/9/2021 at 9:06 AM, CygnusX1 said:

If this is true, then the next few weeks will be an interesting test of the highly speculative theory that Thai people, as well as others in mainland SE Asian countries, have a substantial degree of pre-existing immunity to the China virus, accounting for the small number of deaths in those countries (according to Worldometers, the worst mainland SE Asian country is Myanmar with 59 deaths per 1M population, not much higher than gold star Australia’s 35).

Ddid you see the worldometers Myanmar numbers since the coup? They recorded just 14 cases today. It's highly likely these numbers are being suppressed or testing is not being done. Numbers there could be rampant now and noone would know.

 

Thailand has no hope of herd immunity, even if everyone is imminused because there will always be those crossing the border and reintroducing the virus, and vaccines aren't 100% effective. 

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, DavisH said:

Ddid you see the worldometers Myanmar numbers since the coup? They recorded just 14 cases today. It's highly likely these numbers are being suppressed or testing is not being done. Numbers there could be rampant now and noone would know.

Thats fine, Thailand will be down to 14 cases a day soon when they run out of their stockpile of test kits.

[DavisH]

On 4/9/2021 at 8:29 AM, Aussie999 said:

Australia is also sending to PNG, and your 54 million, is also other vaccines... what I am saying is keep them in Oz, and treat more of it's population quicker, rather than send to Thailand

FYI Australia has ordered 125million doses for its paltry population of 25M; 30M doses for NZ for a 5M population. And the US over 1.2billion doses. This is just utter, disgusting greed, while much of the world goes without. This is NOT the way to control a pandemic. 

Edited April 10, 2021 by DavisH

[rumak]

On 4/9/2021 at 6:16 AM, Pattaya Spotter said:

I wonder if this outbreak will have any effect on the planned July 1 and October 1 tourist no quarantine re-opening plans.

 

Seventeen ministries that have say in such matters have had an emergency meeting ( number 442 )  ,   debated the dates, put their favored date into a hat,  and have reached a compromise.   The new dates will be July 13 and October 6 for  re-opening .  Maybe

[Bkk Brian]

8 minutes ago, DavisH said:

FYI Australia has ordered 125million doses for its paltry population of 25M; 30M doses for NZ for a 5M population. And the US over 1.2billion doses. This is just utter, disgusting greed, while much of the world goes without. This is NOT the way to control a pandemic. 

I agree some countries will end up with far too much and will end up donating to poorer countries.

 

However isn't the reason for this that they gambled early by ordering plenty of different vaccines before they had even finished phase 3 trials? Just incase some did not pass, that be a wise decision no?

 

Yes as it turns out all the vaccines seem to now be approved and as a consequence they have surplus.

 

Thats my take anyway.

[gargamon]

2 hours ago, dbrenn said:

there were even reports that the Spanish Flu first crossed over to humans from pigs in the US

I believe the Spanish Flu started in Kentucky, USA. It was erroneously named "Spanish" because Spain was the only country that was actually reporting the deaths accurately. All the other countries were lying about the numbers. Sound familiar??

[rabas]

1 hour ago, rumak said:

 

Seventeen ministries that have say in such matters have had an emergency meeting ( number 442 )  ,   debated the dates, put their favored date into a hat,  and have reached a compromise.   The new dates will be July 13 and October 6 for  re-opening .  Maybe

 

But, how many 10s of millions of tourists?  How many hours of quarantine? 

[rumak]

6 hours ago, rabas said:

But, how many 10s of millions of tourists?  How many hours of quarantine? 

 

those figures are being discussed now .   they will be released after their noon buffet.

"all you can eat" .    ** subject to revision **

[sandyf]

16 hours ago, placnx said:

You don't know much about statistics in China, it seems. Numbers are subject to manipulation to feed the narrative. People who reported what was happening have been disappeared except for the doctor who got Covid himself and passed away.

There is no dispute some local officials mishandled the early stages but they soon picked up the ball.

Your proof that there was a secret pandemic in China is noticeable by it's absence, or maybe you just do not understand the term.

 

 

[sandyf]

12 hours ago, sezze said:

100% true . You can only blame China to keep it under the radar when they noticed and lying about the real numbers , not the origin . Virus are everywhere , and they mutate and jump species all the time . Once a while a mutation and species jump is working "good" and if the situation is right ( meaning high R ratio , in a high density population ) then it jumps off . Has done it before and will happen more and more ( we with more and more people on this planet , and travel faster and more then ever ) .

China is probably the origin , but even that isn't 100% sure . The bats which this coronavirus originated from is living in many places in Asia , including Thailand ( infact they found precursors of Covid19 strain in Thailand in samples from a few y ago ) .

Spot on, and one of the most significant points. " and travel faster and more then ever"

Back in 2002 there were very few direct routes out of China and most of those that were in place had to transit through the Asian hubs like BKK, KL and Singapore. I was here at the time of the SARS outbreak and it was down to measures implemented at these airports that prevented a mushroom effect with SARS.

By the same token it was low level transit through the middle east that helped contain MERS, the bats to camel coronavirus.

By 2019 international travel was in a different league and an international solution is needed.

[scorecard]

"Thailand says Bangkok COVID-19 outbreak may take months to contain"

 

"...months..."

 

Many hundreds of new cases every day for several weeks now and more clusters/hot spots being identified every day.

 

Plus government building temporary hospitals in numerous locations, one report says at least 10,000 beds, and more will be built.

 

Plus vaccine supply / injections in a mess and achieving very little.

 

Seems to me 'many months' could well be 12 months before daily new infections goes down to 2 digits per day, along with many deaths.

 

Further as the word spreads I suggest numbers of tourist arrivals will remain very small, even with reductions in quarantine.

 

[VBF]

On 4/10/2021 at 3:06 AM, dbrenn said:

What a lot of nonsense. I don't listen to extremists either, but many of those who don’t agree with the mainstream narrative are distinguished experts in the sciences and  medicine. Religion has nothing to do with it.

I agree - Religion is the biggest Conspiracy Theory of them all - believing in the fantastic, unprovable.

"All religion is a foolish answer to a foolish question"

[ParkerN]

On 4/9/2021 at 7:01 AM, Phaser said:

Until Thailand gets his act together with a serious vaccine program using highly effective vaccines there’s no chance this economy will reopen or tourism come back never mind international business travel be permitted without impractical quarantines

 

I fear anything sensible is not going to happen. It is going to be overwhelmed by dollar consideration and explained away as the government explains everything away. Their starting point is 'ít is'nt what it seems', whereas it is probably exactly what it seems.

[Artisi]

5 hours ago, scorecard said:

"Thailand says Bangkok COVID-19 outbreak may take months to contain"

 

"...months..."

 

Many hundreds of new cases every day for several weeks now and more clusters/hot spots being identified every day.

 

Plus government building temporary hospitals in numerous locations, one report says at least 10,000 beds, and more will be built.

 

Plus vaccine supply / injections in a mess and achieving very little.

 

Seems to me 'many months' could well be 12 months before daily new infections goes down to 2 digits per day, along with many deaths.

 

Further as the word spreads I suggest numbers of tourist arrivals will remain very small, even with reductions in quarantine.

 

Who in their right mind would  consider coming here with a daily increase of infection, vaccination in a complete shambles, over valued Baht, most tourist facilities closed or in a state of disrepair after standing idle for over a year - Who? 

[Jeffr2]

8 minutes ago, Artisi said:

Who in their right mind would  consider coming here with a daily increase of infection, vaccination in a complete shambles, over valued Baht, most tourist facilities closed or in a state of disrepair after standing idle for over a year - Who? 

I'd rather be here. On Phuket or Samui. Than in the west where the virus is raging.

 

But this could quickly change.

[placnx]

21 hours ago, ozimoron said:

 

What purpose does it serve to blame any country for a virus which originates there? As I understand it, the coronavirus likely jumped from bats to another animal and then to humans. That animal hasn't yet been identified.

Just one of the theories. Also available: direct from bats, direct from lab.

[placnx]

21 hours ago, dbrenn said:

What's the point of blaming any country for Covid? This kind of thing can start anywhere - there were even reports that the Spanish Flu first crossed over to humans from pigs in the US, travelling with troops to Europe. Diseases can originate anywhere, and are accidental, so who really cares? 

There are probabilities, and zoonitic diseases arise more commonly in China and West Africa. The Spanish Flu was a misnomer. Here's an excellent analysis:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/article/140123-spanish-flu-1918-china-origins-pandemic-science-health

We should all care where a virus originated. It may not be the last from that source.

[placnx]

20 hours ago, sezze said:

100% true . You can only blame China to keep it under the radar when they noticed and lying about the real numbers , not the origin . Virus are everywhere , and they mutate and jump species all the time . Once a while a mutation and species jump is working "good" and if the situation is right ( meaning high R ratio , in a high density population ) then it jumps off . Has done it before and will happen more and more ( we with more and more people on this planet , and travel faster and more then ever ) .

China is probably the origin , but even that isn't 100% sure . The bats which this coronavirus originated from is living in many places in Asia , including Thailand ( infact they found precursors of Covid19 strain in Thailand in samples from a few y ago ) .

If the precursor came from Thailand, it only improved when it sat around in China. Certainly there's no evidence of a virulent Corona until cases arrived from China last year.

[placnx]

20 hours ago, DavisH said:

Ddid you see the worldometers Myanmar numbers since the coup? They recorded just 14 cases today. It's highly likely these numbers are being suppressed or testing is not being done. Numbers there could be rampant now and noone would know.

 

Thailand has no hope of herd immunity, even if everyone is imminused because there will always be those crossing the border and reintroducing the virus, and vaccines aren't 100% effective. 

At least the mRNA vaccines so far show efficacity against the variants, much better than immunity after infection.

[placnx]

19 hours ago, DavisH said:

FYI Australia has ordered 125million doses for its paltry population of 25M; 30M doses for NZ for a 5M population. And the US over 1.2billion doses. This is just utter, disgusting greed, while much of the world goes without. This is NOT the way to control a pandemic. 

The US is distributing some excess already, and will also allot through COVAX. The way to deal with this problem is to increase production capacity for the advanced vaccines.

[ThailandRyan]

6 minutes ago, placnx said:

The US is distributing some excess already, and will also allot through COVAX. The way to deal with this problem is to increase production capacity for the advanced vaccines.

However, Thailand has never signed up to the COVAX program.  Sad but true.

[placnx]

19 hours ago, gargamon said:

I believe the Spanish Flu started in Kentucky, USA. It was erroneously named "Spanish" because Spain was the only country that was actually reporting the deaths accurately. All the other countries were lying about the numbers. Sound familiar??

Are you joking?

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/article/140123-spanish-flu-1918-china-origins-pandemic-science-health

[gargamon]

8 minutes ago, placnx said:

Are you joking?

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/article/140123-spanish-flu-1918-china-origins-pandemic-science-health

Nope, not kidding.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

<quote>

The first observations of illness and mortality were documented in the United States (in Kansas) in March 1918 and then in April in France, Germany and the United Kingdom. To maintain morale, World War I censors minimized these early reports. Newspapers were free to report the epidemic's effects in neutral Spain,

</quote>

My apologies however, I believe I said Kentucky, not Kansas. I get those "K" states mixed up all the time.

[ThailandRyan]

4 minutes ago, gargamon said:

Nope, not kidding.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

<quote>

The first observations of illness and mortality were documented in the United States (in Kansas) in March 1918 and then in April in France, Germany and the United Kingdom. To maintain morale, World War I censors minimized these early reports. Newspapers were free to report the epidemic's effects in neutral Spain,

</quote>

My apologies however, I believe I said Kentucky, not Kansas. I get those "K" states mixed up all the time.

Can you really trust wikipedia to be correct when anyone can edit it?

[gargamon]

36 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Can you really trust wikipedia to be correct when anyone can edit it?

There have been studies where false info has been put into wikipedia. It does not take long before the false information is removed. Yes, anyone can edit it, but anyone can also fix it when false data is added.

 

Further, most info in wikipedia has references to the originating source, so you are free to check the actual source for validity.