Worst case scenario: Thailand faces 28,000 new COVID-19 cases PER DAY

[maddermax]

So let's do it!! It's a no-brainer!

[multatuli]

3 hours ago, dennnis said:

So, the one year lockdown was just a waste, they only postponed the inevitable. 

the thai mentality: we are a superior breed, and nothing can happen ro us. Again and again.

[Dogmatix]

This could get out of hand this time.  Despite utterly incompetent management and various corrupt behaviours that exacerbated or even caused the previous waves, they have been extremely lucky to avoid a much worse epidemic so far.  It is very possible that their luck will run out this time and the Thai people will be forced to reap the malignant harvest their leaders have sown for them.  It is utterly pathetic to see them talking about pie in the sky plans for tourists to come back to be ripped off once again when they have made no plans to achieve herd immunity through vaccination and are only going through the motions in the hope that other countries will so the heavy lifting to eliminate the pandemic for them. Why would anyone want to visit such a lackadaisical country where a severe outbreak could occur at any moment?  The news that the 250 man military appointed Senate has jumped the vaccination queue says it all. 

Edited April 12, 2021 by Dogmatix

[natway09]

I estimated 2,000 cases a day by end by the 20th. 

May need to ahve a reassessment now ?........I hope not !!!

[rickudon]

One problem is that after a year of restrictions and few deaths people are taking the safety precautions with a pinch of salt. We visited a large market today which has had at least one confirmed case here in Udon (possibly 3) and at least half the staff were not wearing masks.

I fully expect national daily positive cases to be in the thousands for the last half of this month. be interesting to see how the health system copes (or not). 

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand faces the grim prospect of 28,000 new COVID-19 cases per day, if adequate preventative measures are not put in place, public health officials said on Sunday.

Friday night it was go home & spend spend spend.... Sunday was too late.

[tifino]

possibly the local long trusted tried and true approach,

 seems to be losing its effectiveness?  

 

[todlad]

6 hours ago, DLock said:

 

Thailand will be at 1,300 per day in the next 2 or 3 days....so you can cross off "best case scenario" Sophon.

 

...lets move to middle prediction and see how that pans out...

 

Fail.

Would you care to share your copy of the DDC model with the rest of us?

[lesmac]

Too late now this should have happened on the 9th just wait until they all return after songkran. madness

[ParkerN]

That should focus a few minds, even as just a possibility.

[mrfill]

3 hours ago, ThailandGuy said:

No way that is gonna happen in 1 week. Simply not possible even with a reproduction number of 1.7 which is absurd as the UK variant of the virus has a reproduction of 1.3.  They are just in total panic mode.  Why is use of alcohol not  prohibited? Why is there no curfew?  You saw this coming 2 weeks ago and still not stop Songkran? How bizar. And they want to open up toursim in June/July? Good luck with that !

 

Imperial College reckon the R number is between 1.4 and 1.7 for B117 (as at Dec20)

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/211793/new-covid-19-variant-growing-rapidly-england/

[Cake Monster]

5 hours ago, ezzra said:

The day the government will finally pull their finger out and take this Covid business seriously and take decisive and painful measures to eradicate this Covid thingy once and for all we all be hearing of it for many months  if not years to come...  

The Gov,t will never take the actions that are needed to try and bring the Covid Virus under control in Thailand.

Its all about the Money. The center of the Universe for all Thais.

IMHO, the Government have overstretched on the War Toys procurement, ( among other things )that they say have to be purchased for National Security. This has left the Coffers severely drained of Money.

Now the security of the Country is severely threatened by something no War  Toy can combat, and there is no Money left to fight the thing.

Yes ! The Government could borrow more Money, but they are already close to the predetermined borrowing limit to GDP imposed upon them.

The  end result is what we are seeing happen in front of our very Eyes today

[Bangkok Barry]

1 - Far too late. The government has actively encouraged everyone to travel throughout the country.

2 - Mass vaccination is several weeks away and the government's own figures say they do not expect to vaccinate everyone until the latter part of 2022.

3 - Almost everyone has been doing that already for over a year. And still it hasn't prevented a probable crisis.

4 - And those who can't? Like shopkeepers, street cleaners, medical staff - the list is endless.

Thailand is often known for being years behind the rest of the world though, so a late pandemic crisis should come as no surprise.

 

Edited April 12, 2021 by Bangkok Barry

[onthedarkside]

A conspiracy-COVID misinformation post and a trolling graphic post have been removed.

 

[SamuiFan]

7 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

I can not say anything negative about your comment because it is 100% accurate.

We do not want to jeopardise Samui thank you. We are worried. But the island is very busy. So all events have been cancelled and many of us staying home to avoid the crowds. 

[JEM53]

 

So, the one year lockdown was just a waste, they only postponed the inevitable.

 

Lockdown? Did they come and weld your front door, or did they beat you up if you went outside, like the do in China. I live in Pattaya, We had road blocks for three weeks last year where they checked if you live inside Pattaya OR if you live outside nearby, by requiring a Tabien Bahn copy. If you call that a lockdown, up to you but not really for me. My life did not get interrupted in any way. Lock down for interstate travel? That I believe is a good measure that really helps, so necessary.

[Magenta408]

Models along the lines of what Imperial College gave us.

[Jonathan99]

5 hours ago, dennnis said:

So, the one year lockdown was just a waste, they only postponed the inevitable. 

well not really. in this one year there are now 4-5 vaccines available so any time advantage you get before that is a win. 

[ChrisKC]

He is doing what I used to do in my Excel spreadsheet with my "what if" function.

 

If I sell 1,000 I will make B2,000, but what if I sell 10,000? One key press - I will make B20,000 - wow! But what if I sell 50000? OMG - I am going to be rich!

 

I am neither optimistic or pessimistic - I am realistic: I am not sure. I have a plan that I will adjust according to what actually happens.

[Joinaman]

5 hours ago, internationalism said:

that high figures infected means around 150 deaths daily.

already the last week in bangkok hospitals beds were full and shortage of tests.

those field hospitals will take time to arrange. It's not only beds, but personel and basic equipment and supplies of ppe

 

Hospital beds are full ? 

Of people who have tested positive, yet show little or no symptoms ?

How many are in ICU beds, and how many have died ?

Why put infected people in hospitals, why not let them isolate elsewhere, or if not, why not stick them in the field hospitals ?y get full service in the hospitals, free meals , room service , etc, ?

We keep hearing about an increase in cases, but if no tests were carried out before, how do you know how many there are, and if these are an increase, or a decrease in actual cases ?

if we have these large increase in infections, why do we not have a corresponding increase in ICU admissions and in deaths ?

[Bangkok Barry]

3 hours ago, ThailandGuy said:

Why is use of alcohol not  prohibited? Why is there no curfew? 

 

1 - You cannot catch Covid from alcohol. Most people understand that.

2 - Covid infects in daylight hours as well as at night. Most people understand that. If you have a curfew then it has to be 24 hours, otherwise what is the point? We've seen how pointless various curfews have been around the world.

[Joinaman]

7 minutes ago, Jonathan99 said:

well not really. in this one year there are now 4-5 vaccines available so any time advantage you get before that is a win. 

vaccines available ? To whom ?

if only 97 deaths in almost 16 months, is there any real need for vaccines ?

 

[Joinaman]

35 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

The Gov,t will never take the actions that are needed to try and bring the Covid Virus under control in Thailand.

Its all about the Money. The center of the Universe for all Thais.

IMHO, the Government have overstretched on the War Toys procurement, ( among other things )that they say have to be purchased for National Security. This has left the Coffers severely drained of Money.

Now the security of the Country is severely threatened by something no War  Toy can combat, and there is no Money left to fight the thing.

Yes ! The Government could borrow more Money, but they are already close to the predetermined borrowing limit to GDP imposed upon them.

The  end result is what we are seeing happen in front of our very Eyes today

and what is it we are seeing ?

an over reaction to a virus that effects so few of the population of Thailand as to be almost un newsworthy

Yes we have infection, the true numbers unknown, but the numbers in ICU beds, the numbers dying ?

More people die each week from liver fluke cancer, more people die in 2 days in road accidents, yet we do not close the country down and ruin the lives of millions

Why are we seeing so few infections, so few emergency cases, and even fewer deaths , if this virus is so deadly.

Closing bars and and venues , while allowing crowded markets and shops, cannot stop this spread, 

 

[GreasyFingers]

5 hours ago, KannikaP said:

Love it how they predict down to ONE person !   LOL

The computer told me that and you know computers never lie.

(As long as they are wthinin the +- 10,000%)

[Jonathan99]

9 minutes ago, Joinaman said:

vaccines available ? To whom ?

if only 97 deaths in almost 16 months, is there any real need for vaccines ?

 

if you want to open up the country to tourists then yes.

[Dart12]

I'm guessing this headline doesn't get as many clicks:

9,997 people out of 10,000 that  contracted covid last month have fully recuperated and are back at work now and with healthy antibodies.  The human immune system is amazing.

Edited April 12, 2021 by Dart12

[Joinaman]

1 hour ago, multatuli said:

the thai mentality: we are a superior breed, and nothing can happen ro us. Again and again.

and what exactly is happening to the Thais ?

very few emergency admissions, even fewer deaths

why ?

Without the media hype, how many people would even know about this so called "deadly" virus ?

Yet people run scared of something that effects so few, while ignoring the many thousands of deaths from other causes 

[Tonypandy]

5 hours ago, shady86 said:

Worst case scenario, just stop all testing and there will be no cases, manipulate all the numbers so everything looks normal. 

That's what's been happening, once they stop again the numbers will reduce and all will be well in thier minds 

[connda]

A team led by Neil Ferguson of Imperial College forcasted 500,000 Covid deaths in the UK based on computer models.  Ok.

You have to be careful with "computer models" as most reflect the GIGO paradigm (garbage in, garbage out). 

When I hear "experts" making these predictions I just wonder what they hope to gain.  Spread fear to encourage compliance?  Maybe effective but unethical.  What happens when the numbers don't materialize?  Then the public loses faith in the "experts."  Present the public with the most likely results from the computer modeling without crying "Wolf." Then the "experts" don't end up looking like idiots.
So if the numbers go up, they excoriate the public for not abiding by "preventive measures.  If the number go lower they they'll laud the public for taking "preventive measures."  Whether the public did or not is irrelevant.  Either way the pat themselves on the back for great computer modeling and will take all the credit if the  numbers go down, and will assign blame to the public if they go up.
Heck - they can't lose.   Promotions and raises for all.

[Dart12]

3 minutes ago, Tonypandy said:

That's what's been happening, once they stop again the numbers will reduce and all will be well in thier minds 

they lock ya down for a bit first to take credit for the improvements