Worst case scenario: Thailand faces 28,000 new COVID-19 cases PER DAY

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10 minutes ago, Donga said:

Let's see if this turns out be the huge wave Thailand was "lucky" enough to avoid previously, or whether they can bring it under control in a reasonable time frame say 2 months. Which is my projection, why:

1. Govt is not so ineffectual as some portray as they have the contact tracing capabilities, strong quarantine processes and health volunteers to assist, particularly in the provinces.
2. Thai society (apart from HiSos, a distinct minority) are community conscious and will don the masks, social distance more effectively than the Europeans and most other countries.

Be personally responsible, like most Thais, and by June it will be like it was for most of the time, compared to the rest of the world. The numbers are still controllable and well below what many countries have endured.
 

I think your prediction has a good shot at being borne out. But the increased contagiousness of the new varieties coupled with continued illegal immigration does mean that the threat is greater.

[Surasak]

8 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

Self isolate, social distance when out and about wearing a mask, and wash hands/sanitize as there are B117 mind fields everywhere ATM, that is what I was saying to myself with the upcoming family holiday.

 

But sadly that now has gone out the window as my research suggests that the B117 variant is much deadlier and more contagious than what we have seen in the past and thanks to the inept government for allowing people to travel and spread it all around Thailand now, that said, this is from what I am seeing, i.e. it is causing havoc around other countries, so my chances of getting it staying home, as painful as that maybe as opposed to going on our planned holiday, is much much much less likely, so the math worked.......bummer.

I just love how everyone calls this shoddy lot a government. Any government worth its salt would make every effort to protect its people. All this lot can think of is, how much money can I cream off the country. Scrooge could learn a lot from this shower.

[connda]

2 hours ago, Dart12 said:

Are they really forcing people that test positive, but are in no need of actual care, into these "hospitals" ?  Looks a lot like prison to me.

Look like concentration camps. Being Thailand they'll even have crematoriums near-by.   If you popped a false positive going in, you'll definitely pop Covid positive on the way out.  In the meantime, aren't the special people in Prayut's cabinet who popped positive at Thong Lor all allowed to stay at home?

[unblocktheplanet]

Songkran was sooo worth it, eh, Too?

 

"University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce estimates the latest infection wave will cost the country between Bt60 billion and Bt100 billion – assuming the government can successfully contain the spread in a month or two."

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/third-wave-of-covid-infections-spins-new-economic-risks/

[unblocktheplanet]

I have not read all these futile pages. May I just remind you all that Thailand has pretty much the same population as the UK. We failed to learn from their mistakes. Govt is criminal & reprehensible for facilitating this, traitors to their people. Shame!

[Harry Fingerling]

Can’t believe any of this as Anutin says there’s no risk to people travelling into the provinces. ???? What a joke.

[Bkktodd]

Meanwhile 9 in 10 farangs walk around Pattaya without masks.  In their own little covid free world

[Bkktodd]

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Maybe there is an increase in ICU how can you say there is not?

 

Deaths always have a lag in time surely you know that? Its only been a week since this new wave started

any increase in hospital beds used is because Thailand admits even mild cases instead of self quarantine in home.  

[pixelaoffy]

This miserable selfish gov aren't going to change.  The lemming Thai voters are electing it's lacky party pralang prachat in by elections..nothing is going to change and I mean nothing.  Thais get what they deserve 

[WingFat]

On 4/10/2021 at 10:48 PM, Freigeist365 said:

Any disease will run its natural course eventually, regardless of governments either trying to knee jerk reacting against it or not. In some cases it will destroy life, and in others strengthen the immune system of the healthy and strong ones. In a society, where we have been indoctrinated to bash and hate the strong, hard working and innovative ones while investing all our money, time and effort into getting even the weakest and laziest pulled through, a big natural "cleanup" is long, long overdue! May the strongest and the best of us survive.

Agree with your concept. To force entire populations to endure draconian measures based upon the vulnerabilities of the elderly and others with underlying health conditions, makes no sense. There needs to be a balance that doesn't wreck economies, livelihoods and quality of life. And, it must be pointed out that one of the factors that perhaps the worst underlying conditions to have when contracting the virus is obesity. And the vast majority of obese people can just d**n well "get off their chairs" and do something about it. Obesity is also a main cause of other serious ailments that clog up health care systems and drive up medical care costs for everyone. Some say obesity is worse than smoking.

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, todlad said:

And you recommend we all vote for your guess based on run rates that might or might not be appropriate.

 

I have no prediction and neither have you.

 

Every country in the world learned very quickly that no one has a clue. Remember Gold Standard Singapore? They fell apart spectacularly when their appalling treatment of their migrant worker community smacked them in the face.

 

You and I have no idea of the detail of the DDC model so we really cannot assess it. I don't wish to be seen as an apologist for anyone but madcap pronouncements help no one.

I guess you've got nothing further to bring to the forum on this subject other than berate others then

[todlad]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

I guess you've got nothing further to bring to the forum on this subject other than berate others then

The final part of your statement is true: when I read something crass, offensive or just plain daft, I see it as my mission to help out.

 

As for contributing to the debate on this and many other topics, yes, I am more forthcoming but sometimes quality control is enough.

[todlad]

24 minutes ago, DLock said:

 

Where did I recommend you all vote for my guess?

 

It's simply my guess based on run rates over the last week. Time will tell if I am right or wrong.

 

But is the entire point of your post to call me out that I don't have the right to make a guess, and then say you don't have a prediction yourself.

 

Your post is meaningless....but you going to feel pretty stupid when the numbers get above my guess.

 

 

My point is this: you have done something impossible by making a forecast. Forecasts, with certain exceptions, are always wrong.

 

What you did was to decry a model you have never read and then offered a guess as your alternative. A guess based on almost nothing.

 

So, I saw an opportunity to help you out a little. For credibility, you could have explained yourself much better and looked much less of a gainsayer.

 

Now you're saying I am going to look foolish if your virtually blind guess turns out to be somewhere near at one point in time.

 

The DDC report is clearly a scenario based document and the scenarios seem to cover a longer period than your "Thursday of this week" approach. Taking a longer view, they will probably also get the answer right: will you feel foolish when that happens?

 

Thought not.

[Bkk Brian]

19 minutes ago, todlad said:

The final part of your statement is true: when I read something crass, offensive or just plain daft, I see it as my mission to help out.

 

As for contributing to the debate on this and many other topics, yes, I am more forthcoming but sometimes quality control is enough.

I predict a calamity is a coming, I wish I was wrong but all evidence thus far points to it.

 

Hope thats not too daft for you.

[ukrules]

Unless someone in government comes out and apologises for getting things wrong / making a mistake then I suggest working on the assumption that everything's all going to plan, no matter how bad it gets.

Edited April 12, 2021 by ukrules

[Bangkok Barry]

4 hours ago, Dart12 said:

The human immune system is amazing.

 

The nearly 3 million who have died might not agree with you on that.

[mlmcleod]

Perhaps the government can take a few of the baht budgeted for submarines and get the lead out on vaccinations.  The rest of the world seems to be vaccinating like crazy but not Thailand.  Vaccination is the only way to control the pandemic!

[joecoolfrog]

11 hours ago, Smilermike said:

They have to start acting positively to rid this from Thailand. And if that means stopping people from coming into the country or moving around Thailand so be it! Act decisively and stop faffing about. Enforce  the rules anyone that breaks them put them in prison. You cant rid this country  of Covid if you keep thinking about allowing people in. How do you think this uk strain got here? If they had done this in the beginning, all the businesses would now be  at least trying to make some money rather than every few months open  close open close.  Through not being strong in the 1st instance you are crippling the country to a stage where it will takes decades to get back on its feet if at all.

You do realise that the ' UK strain ' is so called because it was detected there , it may well have originated somewhere else , even Bangkok !

[Expat Tom]

Measure it with a micrometer, mark it with a piece of chalk and cut it with an axe. That seems logical to me! 

[Joe Mama]

What I really want to hear about is how many folks are being vaccinated each day in Thailand!  That's the only way to put an end this scourge!

[Truth Will Set You Free]

This is getting bore.........what’s taking them so long to get vaccines for the people? Yet they want to allow people in the country who has been vaccinated. Why would I come here and the people are not vaccinated? 
 

What happen in getting the vaccine for the people? Now it getting out of control again. What’s next? Allowing the hospital to outsource it and charge people, shows how low this government is toward it people. 
 

 

[hotchilli]

21 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand faces the grim prospect of 28,000 new COVID-19 cases per day, if adequate preventative measures are not put in place, public health officials said on Sunday.

Already short of hospital beds, limited testing kits, virtually no vaccines...

Songkran national holiday allowing inter provincial travel.

what could possibly go wrong...

Prayut & Co should bow out now.

[ThailandRyan]

Today is the day of Songkran, the Children and the elders will be bathed by the entire family and the Buddha statues bathed as well.  Tight gathering of families and close proximal eating of meals as they party and enjoy the day.  I am sure there will also be water fights in the villages that can not be stopped and family who has traveled from all over will still spray water and wipe powder on faces.  Good luck folks and stay safe.

[Darkside Gray]

Not much bragging on position now!

[pixelaoffy]

1 hour ago, hotchilli said:

Already short of hospital beds, limited testing kits, virtually no vaccines...

Songkran national holiday allowing inter provincial travel.

what could possibly go wrong...

Prayut & Co should bow out now.

If only.  Thailand never had plan for dealing with the virus other than shutting down the country last year .what came next was .mai pen rai

[newnative]

   Pity the government has failed so miserably at item #2 on his list.  No vaccine in adequate numbers and, now, not even testing kits in adequate numbers.  Gross incompetence.  

[DLock]

11 hours ago, todlad said:

My point is this: you have done something impossible by making a forecast. Forecasts, with certain exceptions, are always wrong.

 

What you did was to decry a model you have never read and then offered a guess as your alternative. A guess based on almost nothing.

 

So, I saw an opportunity to help you out a little. For credibility, you could have explained yourself much better and looked much less of a gainsayer.

 

Now you're saying I am going to look foolish if your virtually blind guess turns out to be somewhere near at one point in time.

 

The DDC report is clearly a scenario based document and the scenarios seem to cover a longer period than your "Thursday of this week" approach. Taking a longer view, they will probably also get the answer right: will you feel foolish when that happens?

 

Thought not.

 

You post is like a Seinfeld post - a post about nothing.

 

I took a simple guess based on run rates. That's all. A guess. A wild, random guess. Based on nothing. With no consideration, no references, no report reading, no citing of my detailed breakdown. 

 

Does it offend you so much that I made a "forecast", that you call me out? And yet, offer no alterantive forecast based on the "DDC" yourself?

 

Let's just wait a few days until my "Forecasts, with certain exceptions, are always wrong", becomes reality, and I will deal with you then...

[englishoak]

Oh is it pin the tail on the covid donkey cases time again ? ????

[DLock]

2 minutes ago, englishoak said:

Oh is it pin the tail on the covid donkey cases time again ? ????

 

Yes, I had my go.

 

...but the other 2 kiddies are more inclined to tell me why a blindfolded kid with donkey tail can never pin it on the donkey, and yet refuse to have a go because they scared they may miss the donkey.

[Excel]

2 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

So like playing darts, is it in the bullseye or way out in an outer ring,  Gotcha.  My prediction is it could be high, it could be low, we wont know until the numbers pulled out of the magicians hat now will we.

As it darts how about 180 ? ????

Edited April 13, 2021 by Excel