Thailand reports 2,839 new coronavirus cases, 8 new deaths

[Pattaya Spotter]

6 minutes ago, phills2k1 said:

Just curious, are you involved with a business that would be particularly impacted by a lockdown?

As I've posted many times, I have no financial or economic interest in re-opening Thailand before it is "safe" to do so. Being a resident of Thailand, I do see the personal and financial destruction the pandemic has caused the country so would not wish to see lockdowns implemented or international tourism restricted for any longer than is necessary.

 

Maybe I should ask: Do you have a business that benefits from the current situation or are so financially situated that lockdowns and/or a lack of tourism doesn't effect you?

[A777]

Allowing unrestricted travel during Songkran was a deadly mistake for multiple reasons.

[RedRoadRunner]

 

The age of the people who died ranged from  48 to 89. All had underlying health conditions, apart from one who was obese.
 

 

???????????? obese is the new normal ? ????????????

[Marvin Hagler]

Just now, GroveHillWanderer said:

Only those who don't understand mathematics would find it impossible. While it may not be the case that every single one of the current cases can be traced back directly to the one nightclub, it's still entirely mathematically possible that a single outbreak involving multiple people could grow to 2,800 cases within 30 days.

 

You only have to look at the growth of cases in other countries as the disease took hold, to see multiple examples of this kind of growth. At one point in the UK for example, numbers were doubling every 3-4 days.

1. It’s not 2,800 cases, it’s 30,000 plus.

2. That is the tip of the Iceberg, the real number is likely much higher.

3. Yes I could believe that number of cases in Bangkok and surrounding areas but it is actually now being detected in every province. That far of a geographical spread so quickly?

4. Can you name another country where it has spread so fast from a standing start (India, UK and Brazil etc were not standing starts and nor did they identify or even attempt to identify a single source as the culprit).

5. On that note are you aware of any country that has claimed a huge outbreak came from a single known source.

 

Remember, if this was in the community since December and has exploded into this then that makes the authorities look a whole lot worse than having people believe it came out of nowhere.

 

 

[ray666]

Who knows what they will do next. I`m sure it won`t be good for the country. JUST THEM

[Marvin Hagler]

1 hour ago, Marvin Hagler said:

Frankly I don’t believe you. Would you mind linking to that or showing a screen shot.

You have all the genomes on your computer apparently..a quick snip, cut and paste would be a 5 second job...waiting, waiting, waiting.

[dinsdale]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

Not just believable, but true.

 

The two separate outbreaks from December and April 1 were caused by two completely different virus strains with different genomes. Almost all current cases are from the UK B.1.1.7 variant that came in from Cambodia.  It's a much more infectious strain, as you can see.

 

I wonder if you could enlighten us to data or fact stating the UK b1.1.7 came in from Cambodia. Of course if your source states may have it's null and void. I could say it may have come in through the Japananese Embassy. No evidence has been supplied but I have my thoughts on this. 

[A777]

It's very sad to see that some school teachers are profiteering from the situation by offering tuition based in private residences whilst schools are shut down, and offering alternative daytime care facility for those parents who have to work.

 

[Kiujunn]

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

I'm not sure what part of Thailand you are but where I am the local Thai's are taking this very seriously and carrying out all precautions available to them, aside from the odd idiots but you get them everywhere in the world.

 

What should concern you more is the lack of action from the government to contain this. Its their fault we are in the mess not local Thai's.

Where I am they are taking it very seriously but carrying out little of precautions.

 

They all wear a mask, e.g. when on their motorcycle.  Not, when drinking with their buddies. 

 

Zero handwashing.  I have forced Thais to wash hands for as long as 5 seconds.  20 seconds? No way.

 

No distancing at all.  To the contrary,  the Chinese culture of cutting in line and no personal distance has unfortunately become the norm in Bangkok. 

[Taswegian23]

7 hours ago, rabas said:

 

Anutin is Thai, he is not going anywhere.

 

You surely aren't suggesting that as a Thai pooyay, Anutin will be white-washed of any repercussions - are you? And not have to face the consequences of his actions because of his 'connections' or 'position' or who his colleagues are? No matter how many ridiculous/reckless/ill-considered statements or decisions he has made...? Surely not...

[Taswegian23]

7 hours ago, PatOngo said:

Well it's surely time to shut the gate!

And pretend that someone else completely left it open - right?

[sandyf]

9 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

Thank you Prayut, Anutin and the rest of the Goon Squad for bringing so much happiness to the People.

 

One has to assume you were offering your thanks to messrs Trump & Johnson this time last year.

No one likes to see the numbers rising but Thailand is still well behind the front runners in this particular event.

It will be at least another year before there is any real clarity

Edited April 24, 2021 by onthedarkside
flame comment removed

[morrobay]

1 hour ago, Marvin Hagler said:

1. It’s not 2,800 cases, it’s 30,000 plus.

2. That is the tip of the Iceberg, the real number is likely much higher.

 

 

 

The graph,page 2. From BKK Brian. Right the new cases are 2800 . But if sum up daily cases it is much more.

Edited April 24, 2021 by morrobay

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, morrobay said:

The graph,page 2. From BKK Brian. Right the new cases are 2800 . You asked this same question last week. Again : with 26 cases on 1 April and an R0 = 2 and ten generation intervals ( 30 days/3 day generation interval. The total infections on April 30 = 26(2)^10 = 26624

Actually thats not my graph, I just added the red curve to the poster who did the original graph, my graphs are far more amateur unfortunately....:)

[phills2k1]

40 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

As I've posted many times, I have no financial or economic interest in re-opening Thailand before it is "safe" to do so. Being a resident of Thailand, I do see the personal and financial destruction the pandemic has caused the country so would not wish to see lockdowns implemented or international tourism restricted for any longer than is necessary.

 

Maybe I should ask: Do you have a business that benefits from the current situation or are so financially situated that lockdowns and/or a lack of tourism doesn't effect you?

 

1) I moved here for a business opportunity that is negatively impacted by lockdowns, as funding we were securing for something important has gone from near certainty to completely up in the air

 

2) I moved here from NYC and a job in a 100% commission industry, where Covid destroyed every single deal I had going into 2020, where a majority were nearing execution. So my income for 2020 was almost nothing, only I was still paying an extravagant cost of living. I came over here with some savings for sure, but not enough that I can just afford to live off of it for a while without any additional income

 

I, and most other people advocating for tougher immediate restrictions (some would call a lockdown), are doing so for three reasons

 

a. To protect against what can be a massive loss of life from this strain which is not only significantly more contagious, but more virulent as well (and is impacting the "younger and healthy" much more so than initial strains)

 

b. To protect against the secondary impacts from covid, such as long haul cases and damage to lungs (the latter of which could be life ruining even for those who survive)

 

c. To look out for the long term outlook of the country and its economy. I know you think that all that matters is what's happening to businesses in this exact moment, but we look past that and understand that if things are allowed to get worse, the damage will be much more severe and much more long term. Even if people are vaccinated, they're not going to want to come visit a country that's in the grips of a never-ending outbreak. They're not going to want to visit a country that's suffering, where the employees of the places they want to visit are in bad shape or at risk. Nor are they going to want to risk infection themselves, as the vaccines don't offer 100% protection generally, and many go down significantly with other variants.  Variants, by the way, can form over here if left to grow without things changing. 

 

What's happening in India is certainly a perfect storm, but it happened largely because things were relaxed and large congregations were allowed. We don't know the true impact of Songkran, but it's going to get much worse before it gets better. Will things deteriorate like they did in India? Probably not. But is it worth taking that chance?  Or what's happening even in Indonesia.  If you were vaccinated, would you want to travel to a country in the middle of an outbreak?  The citizens of China already gave their answer.  And if we don't do everything we can, right now, to stop this from getting even worse than it's about to be, then Thailand becomes a Covid country and that's it until vaccinations are prevalent.  Which means that's it for at least a year, probably much longer.

 

So basically, those of us preaching a lockdown (which we all stated weeks ago was needed as we saw what was going to happen) are doing so because we understand that a little bit of pain now is 10000% necessary to prevent the long term agony which is the alternative option

[harada]

It must be hard for the trough attendees now, not being able to swan off to the overseas mansion until things blow over. ????

[anchadian]

Richard Barrow 

@RichardBarrow

6m

The Thai prime minister has given provincial governors the green light to further tighten restrictions such as closing more locations and setting a curfew if there is a need #ThaiNewsReports #Thailand

 

 

[rabas]

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

I wonder if you could enlighten us to data or fact stating the UK b1.1.7 came in from Cambodia. Of course if your source states may have it's null and void. I could say it may have come in through the Japananese Embassy. No evidence has been supplied but I have my thoughts on this. 

Sure. But you too need to put in effort to understand the data. This is genomic data uploaded to the international covid database GISAID. The following is a screen shot from software (mine) used to study and compare SARS-2 genomes.  This screen shows all the UK B.1.1.7 variants from Cambodia and Thailand up to mid April covering both the Cambodian and Thailand outbreaks.

 

Graph Details

-- Each horizontal line of dots is part of one genome.

-- Each of the 4 coloured dots is a code in the genome. A,C,T, or G.

-- Genomes are line up so you can compare them.

 

Step 1.  Look at the column ( pointed to by a yellow arrow) that has both red and white codes. (this is a mutation!). This is a silent mutation (does nothing) in open reading frame #1 (google search if interested).

- Red dot, Original UK variant.

- White dot, Cambodian UK variant.  (mutation)

 

Step 2. Look at the country/city/date columns on the left. 

Entries 10 - 43: genomes from Cambodia's recent outbreak in Feb/March. (mutation)

Entries 44- 51:  old pre April Thailand genomes from ASQ cases

Entries 52-66: post April 1 Thailand genomes from Bangkok outbreak, Thong Lor(mutation)

Entries 67-73  old pre April Thailand genomes from ASQ cases

 

Summary, all UK genomes from Thailand ASQ (prior to April 1) have no mutation and are standard UK variants from international travellers. All Bangkok genomes after April 1 have the mutation and exactly match the Cambodian version. By far the most likely source of the fast spreading Bangkok outbreak is from Cambodia.  The UK variant has a much higher R0, the reason it spreads so fast.

 

 

Edited April 24, 2021 by rabas

[RobMuir]

5 hours ago, dinsdale said:

To all those who have been saying no exponetial growth well sadly what we are seeing is exponetial growth. From 26 to almost 3,000 in less than a month.

 

They coped with the Wuhan version well. But this UK strain is a real killer and highly contagious.

 

Seeing the same in other countries also now. The situation is now worse than ever.

 

[Pattaya Spotter]

7 minutes ago, phills2k1 said:

 

1) I moved here for a business opportunity that is negatively impacted by lockdowns, as funding we were securing for something important has gone from near certainty to completely up in the air

 

2) I moved here from NYC and a job in a 100% commission industry, where Covid destroyed every single deal I had going into 2020, where a majority were nearing execution. So my income for 2020 was almost nothing, only I was still paying an extravagant cost of living. I came over here with some savings for sure, but not enough that I can just afford to live off of it for a while without any additional income

 

I, and most other people advocating for tougher immediate restrictions (some would call a lockdown), are doing so for three reasons

 

a. To protect against what can be a massive loss of life from this strain which is not only significantly more contagious, but more virulent as well (and is impacting the "younger and healthy" much more so than initial strains)

 

b. To protect against the secondary impacts from covid, such as long haul cases and damage to lungs (the latter of which could be life ruining even for those who survive)

 

c. To look out for the long term outlook of the country and its economy. I know you think that all that matters is what's happening to businesses in this exact moment, but we look past that and understand that if things are allowed to get worse, the damage will be much more severe and much more long term. Even if people are vaccinated, they're not going to want to come visit a country that's in the grips of a never-ending outbreak. They're not going to want to visit a country that's suffering, where the employees of the places they want to visit are in bad shape or at risk. Nor are they going to want to risk infection themselves, as the vaccines don't offer 100% protection generally, and many go down significantly with other variants.  Variants, by the way, can form over here if left to grow without things changing. 

 

What's happening in India is certainly a perfect storm, but it happened largely because things were relaxed and large congregations were allowed. We don't know the true impact of Songkran, but it's going to get much worse before it gets better. Will things deteriorate like they did in India? Probably not. But is it worth taking that chance?  Or what's happening even in Indonesia.  If you were vaccinated, would you want to travel to a country in the middle of an outbreak?  The citizens of China already gave their answer.  And if we don't do everything we can, right now, to stop this from getting even worse than it's about to be, then Thailand becomes a Covid country and that's it until vaccinations are prevalent.  Which means that's it for at least a year, probably much longer.

 

So basically, those of us preaching a lockdown (which we all stated weeks ago was needed as we saw what was going to happen) are doing so because we understand that a little bit of pain now is 10000% necessary to prevent the long term agony which is the alternative option

So maybe we can stop impuning the motives of member's posts (I never have but others have of mine) and accept that we all want what's best for Thailand and the people who reside and visit here but that we have reasonable differences on how best to achieve this.

 

To which variant are you referring...I'm aware that some are more transmissible and therefore may infect more people causing more deaths but not that the virus itself is more deadly.

 

While there definitely is a sub-set of covid patients who suffer long term sometimes serious effects from their virus infection, I have read nothing that says these are nothing but a very small subset of the subset of patients who require hospitalization. Of course these are personal tragedies but I don't think governments can implement policies to primarily protect these people at the expense of the population at large. (That's why they've all endorsed continued use of the AZ and JJ vaccines despite miniscule blood clot risks.)

 

At the current time, I still favor the "lockdown lite" approach current in place. If cases rise substantially over the next week or so my position certainly could change.

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, anchadian said:

Richard Barrow 

@RichardBarrow

6m

The Thai prime minister has given provincial governors the green light to further tighten restrictions such as closing more locations and setting a curfew if there is a need #ThaiNewsReports #Thailand

 

 

Still passing the buck then, delegation is one thing, taking control of a pandemic is quite another.

[Marvin Hagler]

25 minutes ago, morrobay said:

The graph,page 2. From BKK Brian. Right the new cases are 2800 . You asked this same question last week. Again : with 26 cases on 1 April and an R0 = 2 and ten generation intervals ( 30 days/3 day generation interval. The total infections on April 30 = 26(2)^10 = 26624

How do those calculations work in terms of geographical distribution of cases please? What distance is assumed between reported cases? 

Could you have the first case in Bangkok and then say for example 28,000 cases in Chang Mai with nothing in between? Your calculation suggests this would be entirely feasible as it just takes 2 numbers and multiplies them without any other factors taken into account such as geography and case distribution.

[Nojohndoe]

Oh no ! If nothing else that has totally blown the theory some propound that the numbers are limited by the testing and laboratory capacity.

[metisdead]

Inflammatory posts and the replies have been removed. 

[Bkk Brian]

I know around 15, one of my daughters and her two children, all mild, a variety of friends and ex work colleagues, 1 of who died, 2 of which were in ICU for 2 and 1 month respectively.

 

In my opinion its better to lock down now to avoid the darkest times ahead.

Edited April 24, 2021 by onthedarkside
quote of hidden post removed

[phills2k1]

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

But you said you didn't believe him? No acknowledgement on that then?

Come at these people with things like facts and data, and this is what happens

 

The mix of unintelligence, arrogance, and a complete inability to admit being wrong is one of the biggest reasons why this world is where it is

[Orinoco]

On the 2 January my mother died of corona virus in a UK care home.

 

 

Edited April 24, 2021 by onthedarkside
quote of hidden post removed

[Dukeleto]

Aaaaaaand away they gooooooo!

[2 is 1]

Early when news come up, is funny storys then fact and like news post. After donks come here to fight! Yeah everybody can have opinion but hey come on! After 3 page's there is nothing to read anymore only no,yes,no,yes,no,yes...........

[bermondburi]

52 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

When cases rise substantially over the next week or so my position certainly could change.

No backtracking there then....????