SURVEY: Vaccine roll out, will it be successful?

[Scott]

Thailand is planning on starting mass vaccination.  In your opinion, are they going to be able to do it quickly and efficiently?   Chose the option that best describes your opinion.  

[Boomer6969]

While in the west Pfizer will be churning out updates of its vaccines Thailand will be half way through its Sinovac V.1 campaign.

 

So, failure as variants will overrun Thailand's wee efforts.

Edited May 2, 2021 by Boomer6969

[worgeordie]

Last year they were doing so good, then completly  f*cked it up,

moving to slow,should have ordered Vaccine, now they are buying

up Antiviral to try and cure people that become infected,when they

should have bought vaccine to try and prevent infections from Covid.

 

regards Worgeordie

[Mr Meeseeks]

I'm confused... I thought they had already made a complete mess of it? 

[Curt1591]

Right now, my mother-in-law, well into the priority age group, registered and is scheduled for her first jab in July.  

Then there is the required (non-scheduled) follow-up required 3 weeks later. 

Since the initial roll-out is such a clusterdump, why would anyone believe the 3 week follow-up will happen on schedule?

What's the prognosis with no, or a very delayed, follow-up? 

[Brunolem]

For now it seems that the only vaccine offered to the masses in Thailand is going to be the Astra Zeneca, with its rather dubious reputation, at least in Europe.

 

This lack of choice is likely to keep many on the sidelines, until other vaccines are available...if ever...

[herfiehandbag]

5 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

For now it seems that the only vaccine offered to the masses in Thailand is going to be the Astra Zeneca, with its rather dubious reputation, at least in Europe.

 

This lack of choice is likely to keep many on the sidelines, until other vaccines are available...if ever...

The Astra Zeneca vaccine's "dubious reputation" in Europe is largely a result of political posturing.

Edited May 2, 2021 by herfiehandbag

[Sheryl]

"major failure" (option 3) is going too far I think...and also open to subjective interpretation. 

 

But "few logistical problems" (option 2) is an understatement. And it will certainly take much longer than planned.

[Sheryl]

8 hours ago, Curt1591 said:

Right now, my mother-in-law, well into the priority age group, registered and is scheduled for her first jab in July.  

Then there is the required (non-scheduled) follow-up required 3 weeks later. 

Since the initial roll-out is such a clusterdump, why would anyone believe the 3 week follow-up will happen on schedule?

What's the prognosis with no, or a very delayed, follow-up? 

For AZ, which is what this first round will use exclusively, the second injection is 4-12 weeks later.  Not 3.

[Sheryl]

3 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

The Astra Zeneca vaccine's "dubious reputation" in Europe is largely a result of political posturing.

+1

 

Politicians are fearful of public reaction and nto being guided by the science.

 

And the public for some reason is more afraid of a 1 in a million or 1 in a half million vaccine side effect than it is of far greater risks associated with the virus. If that same thinking applied to other spe=heres of life nobody would get out of bed in the morning (let alone drive in a car!).

 

It is not unreasonable, if the option exists (i.e. alternative vaccines are  available) to limit AZ use to people over 30 as UK has done. Perhaps even over 40, at least for women. But the response on the continent is way over the top and reflects the feeling that nothing less than 0 risk is acceptable to the public with a vaccine. 

 

There is no drug in the world that meets that criteria, and appropriate (science based) decision making examines the risk vs benefit of alternative choices, understanding that none of them represent zero risk.

[herfiehandbag]

5 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

The Astra Zeneca vaccine's "dubious reputation" in Europe is largely a result of political posturing.

 

1 hour ago, Sheryl said:

+1

 

Politicians are fearful of public reaction and nto being guided by the science.

 

And the public for some reason is more afraid of a 1 in a million or 1 in a half million vaccine side effect than it is of far greater risks associated with the virus. If that same thinking applied to other spe=heres of life nobody would get out of bed in the morning (let alone drive in a car!).

 

It is not unreasonable, if the option exists (i.e. alternative vaccines are  available) to limit AZ use to people over 30 as UK has done. Perhaps even over 40, at least for women. But the response on the continent is way over the top and reflects the feeling that nothing less than 0 risk is acceptable to the public with a vaccine. 

 

There is no drug in the world that meets that criteria, and appropriate (science based) decision making examines the risk vs benefit of alternative choices, understanding that none of them represent zero risk.

 

Yes, an accurate simple precis rebuttal of the "vaccines are not safe brigade", you are absolutely right.

 

There is of course an even simpler reason underpinning the narrative within Europe that AZ is not safe. The UK left the EU, and struck out on it's own. One of its first tests of independent action was it's programme of vaccination, which has been more successful than most within Europe. It is difficult (particularly if you are neither British nor from Europe), to understand the depth of bitterness and anger within the EU at the UK's actions. That has, disgracefully in my opinion, resulted in some very unsavoury reactions from some of Europe's leading politicians, " dissing" both the UK's programme and the AZ vaccine. 

 

Put bluntly, the "Island Monkeys" cannot be seen to have succeeded, let alone done better than the EU, on their own.

[Changbeer4me]

1 hour ago, Sheryl said:

+1

 

Politicians are fearful of public reaction and nto being guided by the science.

 

And the public for some reason is more afraid of a 1 in a million or 1 in a half million vaccine side effect than it is of far greater risks associated with the virus. If that same thinking applied to other spe=heres of life nobody would get out of bed in the morning (let alone drive in a car!).

 

It is not unreasonable, if the option exists (i.e. alternative vaccines are  available) to limit AZ use to people over 30 as UK has done. Perhaps even over 40, at least for women. But the response on the continent is way over the top and reflects the feeling that nothing less than 0 risk is acceptable to the public with a vaccine. 

 

There is no drug in the world that meets that criteria, and appropriate (science based) decision making examines the risk vs benefit of alternative choices, understanding that none of them represent zero risk.

 

 

Got a young relative about to start Uni in Bangkok.  Has to go look for domitiory.

 

Suggested he try get vaccinated.

 

1. His scared of side effects.

 

2. He says because now in Udon Thani  If you are going to get vaccinated, you must go down to Buriram Province. Scared to travel.

 

It's going to be a hard sell to convince a lot people to get vaccinated.

 

 

 

 

[unblocktheplanet]

Pie-in-the-sky when we die, my oh my!

[khunPer]

I think that the government will be able to do it according to their plan, i.e. between now (May 1st) and end of the year for about 70 percent of the population.

 

Where I live, the first Sinovac-vaccine roll out in April for the front line health- and tourism personel was a success, with more than enough vaccines, so also others could register and get vaccinated, and they made both shots with three weeks separation during April.

[Brunolem]

29 minutes ago, khunPer said:

I think that the government will be able to do it according to their plan, i.e. between now (May 1st) and end of the year for about 70 percent of the population.

 

 

Starting in June would mean reaching 70% in 7 months, a target very unlikely to be reached.

 

The US, for example, who have been vaccinating at full tilt, have reached 50% in 4 months, and things are starting to slow down for lack of volunteers...Europe is way behind such numbers.

 

If I had to bet, I would say somewhere between 30 and 40% by year end, for Thailand, that is, if vaccinations do really start on June 1st...

[Caldera]

So far, they've vaccinated too few people, and too many of them with a questionable vaccine. That's a tough spot to play catch-up from, to say the least.

 

[khunPer]

4 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Starting in June would mean reaching 70% in 7 months, a target very unlikely to be reached.

 

The US, for example, who have been vaccinating at full tilt, have reached 50% in 4 months, and things are starting to slow down for lack of volunteers...Europe is way behind such numbers.

 

If I had to bet, I would say somewhere between 30 and 40% by year end, for Thailand, that is, if vaccinations do really start on June 1st...

The vaccination plan is 300,000 a day – it's about 40,000 a day per province in plain average – i.e. 9 million a month. There are little less than 70 million people in total, so should a month or two be lower than target, it's still doable.

 

If US can do 50% in 4 month, then 70% in 7 month is possible, based on simple math.

[kynikoi]

Seems absolutely no one has noticed the following;

 

Government taking a bashing on all things covid. Dark clouds forming....

 

All sorts of hopelessly sunny news stories about vaccines. Hmmmm

 

The only vaccine that is even potentially being shipped is the vaccine from People's Republic of China.

 

Silly Line app to organize a national effort for 75m people. Hugely skeptical.

 

Schedule you two months from Thursday, no registration, no hospital, three call backs, blah blah blah.

 

I'm sorta thinking they could have had vaccine shipped to Thailand, transported to every big box store location and just had a vaccine drive. Done.

 

In the end we see the government despite it's tendency towards heavy handedness no better at keeping the virus at bay than any other. Once the people got tired of being locked down they did exactly as westerners. This stuff only works in communist China.

 

It will be years before this country is vaccinated to 60%. Even then it will be almost entirely Sinovac.

[Jingthing]

7 minutes ago, kynikoi said:

Seems absolutely no one has noticed the following;

 

Government taking a bashing on all things covid. Dark clouds forming....

 

All sorts of hopelessly sunny news stories about vaccines. Hmmmm

 

The only vaccine that is even potentially being shipped is the vaccine from People's Republic of China.

 

Silly Line app to organize a national effort for 75m people. Hugely skeptical.

 

Schedule you two months from Thursday, no registration, no hospital, three call backs, blah blah blah.

 

I'm sorta thinking they could have had vaccine shipped to Thailand, transported to every big box store location and just had a vaccine drive. Done.

 

In the end we see the government despite it's tendency towards heavy handedness no better at keeping the virus at bay than any other. Once the people got tired of being locked down they did exactly as westerners. This stuff only works in communist China.

 

It will be years before this country is vaccinated to 60%. Even then it will be almost entirely Sinovac.

Well I think that Astra Zenica will be the majority vaccine here. But sadly I share your overall pessimism about the slowness. Also 60 percent is not considered adequate for herd immunity. It's more like 75 percent which I don't think Thailand is even shooting for. Because it will probably be so slow and nasty variants will inevitably emerge here, they'll  probably have to begin a new BOOSTER program even before the initial "rollout" is even mostly done (or so I predict and hope I'm wrong).

[kynikoi]

15 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Well I think that Astra Zenica will be the majority vaccine here. But sadly I share your overall pessimism about the slowness. Also 60 percent is not considered adequate for herd immunity. It's more like 75 percent which I don't think Thailand is even shooting for. Because it will probably be so slow and nasty variants will inevitably emerge here, they'll  probably have to begin a new BOOSTER program even before the initial "rollout" is even mostly done (or so I predict and hope I'm wrong).

 

I believe your assessment to be quite possible.

 

It's killing those in power to spend money on peasants despite what it wastes on 'other things'.

 

We won't be any further along down this road 30 days from now. Guaranteed. Instead of light at the end of the tunnel what I'm hearing is dark red zones, school opening pushed back officially, record numbers. That's the re

 

Vaccine drives are very easy to organize. Humanity has been doing them for better part of 100 years now. Just gotta have the vaccine.

Edited May 2, 2021 by kynikoi

[gunderhill]

18 hours ago, Boomer6969 said:

While in the west Pfizer will be churning out updates of its vaccines Thailand will be half way through its Sinovac V.1 campaign.

 

So, failure as variants will overrun Thailand's wee efforts.

Windows  xp , say  no  more, welcome to  Thailand.

[gunderhill]

One of my Wifes  customers got  covid, he went to the hospital for testing, they told  him they can only  do 20 a  day, they said come back tomorrow, he went at 5 am  the next day, still  full he went  home,  2  days  later he was  dead, from covid in his  room, never got  into  hospital never  got  tested. Found out via the company he worked for when Wife couldn't get hold  of  him.

Edited May 2, 2021 by gunderhill

[Scott]

Off-topic post removed.

 

[Jingthing]

12 minutes ago, gunderhill said:

One of my Wifes  customers got  covid, he went to the hospital for testing, they told  him they can only  do 20 a  day, they said come back tomorrow, he went at 5 am  the next day, still  full he went  home,  2  days  later he was  dead, from covid in his  room, never got  into  hospital never  got  tested. Found out via the company he worked for when Wife couldn't get hold  of  him.

There are tragic stories like that all over the world.

But I have to wonder about the obvious question, as he wasn't tested, was he counted?

[gunderhill]

Just now, Jingthing said:

There are tragic stories like that all over the world.

But I have to wonder about the obvious question, as he wasn't tested, was he counted?

No idea, why arent you asleep.

[Brunolem]

11 hours ago, khunPer said:

The vaccination plan is 300,000 a day

 

70% in 7 month is possible, based on simple math.

Everyone's got a plan until one gets punched in the face (Mike Tyson).

 

Let's just hope that they have a plan B...

Edited May 3, 2021 by Brunolem

[berybert]

As a 20 year old I expect to be in the over 60 and at risk group by the time the government sorts it out.

[l4ml4m]

I am still wondering why we must vaccinate the world when China vaccinates very few people ?!

 

[Brunolem]

59 minutes ago, l4ml4m said:

I am still wondering why we must vaccinate the world when China vaccinates very few people ?!

 

An even better question (that no one in the world is asking) would be:

how did China manage to get rid of the virus without resorting to mass vaccination?

[phetphet]

Here in Samui, where the numbers are lower, on the three or four day periods that the vaccinations were carried out, there were long queues. Priority was given to frontline staff, ferry and hotel staff members.

 

I think for the Thais it should go fairly easily, albeit with long wait times queuing to be vaccinated. For foreigners, I foresee the dreaded Thai bureaucracy rearing it's ugly head and causing even longer wait times. Especially in places like Bangkok

 

But hey! You never know. They might surprise me.