5 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Nobody cares what I call it, they care about what the data means. Since you are an expert on Thai testing techniques, what do the results tell you?

 

There aren't  enough tests.

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1390166899028156417

 

Out of the 1,902 local cases, most in:

 

Bangkok - 739
Nonthaburi - 27
Samut Prakan - 143
Chonburi - 76
Samut Sakhon - 65
Surat Thani - 53
Nakhon Pathom - 47
Ayutthaya - 35
Chachoengsao - 35
Pathum Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat - 31

 

 

 

 

Daily update from the Ministry of Public Health on how Thailand is faring versus other countries worldwide and its regional peer countries in terms of total COVID cases since the beginning of the pandemic. Thailand continues to rank 99th unchanged among world countries in that ranking.

 

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/319836409634690/

 

Just now, Danderman123 said:

How does today's data impact your assessment?

 

Its flat lined did you not notice, no change my opinion from yesterday and for todays assessment take a look at the first post on this thread, no need to repeat it again.

Just now, Rampant Rabbit said:

There aren't  enough tests.

Do you mean that you don't have enough data to be able to assess the future of the epidemic? So, you don't know?

 

 

6 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Nobody cares what I call it, they care about what the data means. Since you are an expert on Thai testing techniques, what do the results tell you?

 

The testing results are inconclusive as there is not a totality of data points which would also include the random sampling in other areas.  Once all and I mean all data is collected then a best case estimate could be made as to which way this is going.  The way it looks now is if it will continue at this pace indefinitely with peaks and valleys.  How long do you want it to go on for, and can you gives us a true estimated best case proposition for when this wave will go away and normalcy may return?  You can't because not all of the data is present.  It is like prosecuting a murder case, yet you do not have all of the evidence to present, the case can not be prosecuted properly and a proper finding found.  Do you understand now?, that's all we are trying to say here.

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Its flat lined did you not notice, no change my opinion from yesterday and for todays assessment take a look at the first post on this thread, no need to repeat it again.

 

Great. I think we are in agreement.

 

There is no growth in the epidemic, based on the current data. As long as the hotspots are eliminated, this wave is going to fade away.

 

The Doomsayers were wrong, and seem to know it, they took a break this week for the most part.

 

 

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Nobody cares what I call it, they care about what the data means. Since you are an expert on Thai testing techniques, what do the results tell you?

 

Who claimed I was an expert on testing techniques, not me just you attempting snide remarks ? But you seem to continually mislead by deliberately spreading misinformation about how well they are doing with random testing, when in fact, as demonstrated by many of the TV posters to you,  you don't not even comprehend what random testing is. So until you have a modicum of understanding as to what it entails and how to undertake such exercises I suggests you refrain from promoting the ridiculous.

5 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Does the recent data in any way contradict my assessment of a low positivity rate and flat growth of infections (with continued double digit number of deaths)?

The data is inconclusive as I have said because the total evidence and data has not been collected from all data points and potential sources.

53 minutes ago, Excel said:

What you say is true of course but then what people are forgetting is that this government and others who control this country do not give a rat's ar$e about the general population and most definitely don't give two hoots to the entire Isan region. Given their distaste of the majority of Thais then there is no way in hell that they will ever do random testing in other areas as they fundamentally do not want to know. 

 

As I have stated many times, random testing is a waste of time. Testing kits, personnel, and vaccines are limited in Thailand and this influences policy. 

2 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

The data is inconclusive as I have said because the total evidence and data has not been collected from all data points and potential sources.

Not entirely. I suspect that even you would agree there is enough data to rule out exponential growth of the epidemic. Based on data available now.

Daily vaccines update, with total doses administered, along with cumulative subtotals for first and second doses:

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/319807172970947

 

And number of new vaccinations in the most recent day, first and second dose numbers.

 

 

 

33 minutes ago, DavisH said:

 

As I have stated many times, random testing is a waste of time. Testing kits, personnel, and vaccines are limited in Thailand and this influences policy. 

 

And perpetuates the wave to continue in many different directions as new clusters pop up elsewhere outside of the areas they are testing in because of failing to test proactively and randomly sample other locales as discussed.  Thailand has the money, they just do not want to part with it.  Millions have been donated by Australia, the US and other countries to help them.  So please explain how they can get ahead of this without chasing the next cluster and so on.

3 minutes ago, Excel said:

Who claimed I was an expert on testing techniques, not me just you attempting snide remarks ? But you seem to continually mislead by deliberately spreading misinformation about how well they are doing with random testing, when in fact, as demonstrated by many of the TV posters to you,  you don't not even comprehend what random testing is. So until you have a modicum of understanding as to what it entails and how to undertake such exercises I suggests you refrain from promoting the ridiculous.

I am simply defining random sampling differently than you would like. Back in the day, I used to do random sampling for a living, for big projects, so I know a bit about it.

 

You don't seem comfortable with the concept of targeting areas for random sampling, but it's a common practice worldwide.

Just now, ThailandRyan said:

And perpetuates the wave to continue in many different directions as new clusters pop up elsewhere outside of the areas they are testing in because of failing to test proactively and randomly sample other locales as discussed.  Thailand has the money, they just do not want to part with it.  Millions have been donated by Australia, the US and other countries to help them.  So please explain how they can get ahead of this without chasing the next cluster and so on.

I 100% agree that more testing is better than less testing. And that they would be more effective if they tested all districts and didn't wait for people to present at the hospital.

 

Their lack of testing means that the epidemic will last longer.

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Not entirely. I suspect that even you would agree there is enough data to rule out exponential growth of the epidemic. Based on data available now.

Maybe you do not understand that they still do not have all of the data from the locations tested as they are still testing there and have for over a week, and without the full data this does not give a full picture as the testing in those locales have been limited in daily tests instead of a massive testing concentration.  There is no reason they could not have tested every one in Klong Toey over a 2 day period as there are only 100k or so residents.  Slowly testing is allowing a continuing spread through that community as well as others.  

 

9 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

 

Great. I think we are in agreement.

 

There is no growth in the epidemic, based on the current data. As long as the hotspots are eliminated, this wave is going to fade away.

 

The Doomsayers were wrong, and seem to know it, they took a break this week for the most part.

 

 

We are far from in agreement, you obviously need to re read my post to you yesterday.

In an English language news briefing Thursday, a government spokeswoman appeared to reiterate that foreigners living in Thailand will be included in the second phase of the government's vaccinations program beginning in June.

 

The spokeswoman said the government is still working out how to best establish a formal system to allow foreigners to register for the government's vaccinations program, including the possibility of an English language mobile app and/or arrangements for foreigners to register directly through local hospitals.

 

"We do understand and hear you very, very clearly," the spokeswoman said, adding that vaccines would be accessible "to all those who require it regardless of nationality."  The spokeswoman also continued to hold out hope that private entities in Thailand such as private hospitals at some future point also would be able to provide vaccinations.

 

 

If Thailand were doing a stellar job of testing, I'm sure they would be telling us daily.

 

But there would seem to be significant room for improvement on wider random testing to get a picture of how the virus is traveling. 

 

Thailand are 135th (out of 222) in the world for "tests per million population", which I doubt anyone would say is a adequate.

 

Waiting for walk-ins to determine a hotspot is already too late - they need to be ahead of the curve...not following it.

Government update on the 18 new COVID deaths reported Thursday:

 

5 men, 13 women

Ages 45 to 100, median age 65

 

Province breakdown includes:

6 from Bangkok

3 from Samut Prakan

2 each from Nonthaburi, Chiang Mai and Samuk Sakhon

1 each from Pathum Thani, Yala and Sing Buri

 

12 of the 18 were believed to have become infected from contacts with family members

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/319836549634676/

 

 

The spread of the virus is very silent within the jail system, we only seem to hear about it when its high profile cases and Human Rights Watch reports it.

 

Detained protest leader Arnon Nampa has fallen ill with Covid and been moved for medical treatment, his Facebook page and news reports said Thursday.

 

If confirmed, Arnon would be the second protest leader to have contracted coronavirus in jail while awaiting their trial after Chukiat “Justin” Sawangwong tested positive for the virus last month.

 

Sunai Phasuk, a senior researcher for Human Rights Watch in Thailand also posted on his personal social media accounts that Arnon has contracted the virus.

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/27174/arnon-taken-ill-in-jail-says-he-has-covid/

Not looking good here

Im probably missing some major points here but if they are testing around 10,000 a day or less a figure quoted on here by someone who had done his research, that is such a miniscule amount in relation to a 70 million population.

 

If roughly 1500 test positive a day out of that 10,000 then we have a horrendous positive test percentage and if they managed to regularly  test 10k a week in each province what would the true situation be..........I guess they prefer not to have that information as per the policy of the last year and the charade of a miraculously virtually covid free Thailand!

1 hour ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

From the recent highs...I know good virus news is anathema to some members.

As long as the good virus news is good virus news then it's all good then.I just have trouble trusting the good virus news as apparently it's not to be trusted which is why Thailand ranks 104th for transparency and corruption which might indicate that the "good virus news" is not so good.

Government spokeswoman Pensom Lertsithichai full statement in English appearing to reiterate that foreign residents will be included in the Thai government's second phase COVID vaccinations program during the second half of 2021. Starting at about at about the 7 minute, 20 seconds point:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/thailandprd/videos/222855662511263/

 

"We do understand and hear you very, very clearly....

 

We'd like to confirm that Thailand's vaccination strategy is based on ensuring accessibility to all those who require it, regardless of their nationality. Comments on this regard have been taken out of context in the media, we know that...

 

So we'd like to reiterate that Thailand continues to include foreign residents in its vaccination program, and foreign residents have been innoculated in the first phase already....

 

Now that Thailand has been successful in procuring more vaccines, in the second phase of innoculation, which is going to start in June and will run until the end of this year, we have expanded within this phase... to include the general public... as well as foreign residents in Thailand based on their membership in the risk groups...

 

We know that the Mor Prom system currently does not accommodate registration for foreign residents for vaccination.... And therefore the Ministry of Public Health is now working on the best method, including through a possible mobile application or contacting hospitals directly, to facilitate registration for foreign residents as soon as possible."

 

1 hour ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

Such as it has been from the start because only testing numbers give us a true indication of the situation.

They can't handle the true indication of the situation!

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40000591

Shipment of million Sinovac doses lands in Suvarnabhumi

The Government Pharmaceutical Organisation (GPO) took delivery of 1 million doses of the Sinovac vaccine from China early this morning.

 

 

12 minutes ago, sapson said:

Im probably missing some major points here but if they are testing around 10,000 a day or less a figure quoted on here by someone who had done his research, that is such a miniscule amount in relation to a 70 million population.

 

If roughly 1500 test positive a day out of that 10,000 then we have a horrendous positive test percentage and if they managed to regularly  test 10k a week in each province what would the true situation be..........I guess they prefer not to have that information as per the policy of the last year and the charade of a miraculously virtually covid free Thailand!

Nobody says that only 10,000 tests are performed in Thailand per day. 

One off-topic post and other containing a profanity have been removed.