Just now, FarFlungFalang said:

That's right everyone knows they've been sweeping it under the bed!

It was just 2 or 3 months ago, when people here were claiming that the second wave never ended, and the government was hiding mass infections.

Well, after you strip out 6.8k from prison/s numbers look consistent at about 2k per day. It's something...

 

Probably maximum ability to test per day is 2k*

5 minutes ago, HaoleBoy said:

You lost my context ... I was responding to CM numbers (which are going down) and CM prison numbers.

Thanks for the clarification, I did misread your context apparently.  Stay safe.

16 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

the wave peaked about 2 weeks ago. It’s possible that mass testing in clusters will generate a new peak, but it’s obvious that growth of the epidemic is not exponential.

The last time you said the wave peaked and its over. What happened to that prediction?

 

All your doing now is stating the obvious that the more you test in clusters the more likely hood of a new peak forming. Have you found your missing logic at last. Well done.

 

I do agree on not calling this exponential growth, that term is redundant now, the new norm is "explosive growth" in the prisons, its like a rocket ship to the moon, strap up!

31 minutes ago, worgeordie said:

I never said it's as bad here,  it's just when there are clusters in the local 

Lotus shopping Mall, and wet market, less than 500 meters away ,the infections

are getting closer.and if the Government does not speed up vaccinating people

it's going to get worse ,not better,  I am 75 so i don't want Covid .

regards Worgeordie

 

11 at the wet market down the road. <5 min walk. Currently closed. 

1 hour ago, Ventenio said:

.it's all a joke if you believe what you read (unless it's from me).

(or me!)

10 minutes ago, kynikoi said:

Well, after you strip out 6.8k from prison/s numbers look consistent at about 2k per day. It's something...

 

Probably maximum ability to test per day is 2k*

2,782 is not about 2k it's about 3k.

1 hour ago, anchadian said:

 

The number of Covid-19 cases crossed 3.68 million across Southeast Asia on Sunday, with 15,568 new cases reported, lower than Saturday’s 16,990. https://nationthailand.com/international/40000954

Catching up to Myanmar.Blinker is on and moved into the overtaking lane.

Horrific numbers. 

 

 

Over the weekend, health officials reported a large COVID outbreak at Ban Pong Hospital in Ratchaburi province:

 

"Dr. Apisamai said the Ayurvedic ward for women, at the Ban Pong Hospital in Ratchaburi province, has been closed until May 24^th after six medics and nine other patients became infected, reportedly by a woman who had tended to her sick mother on the ward.

There are already 30 people in this cluster of infections, including several family members of the medics, she said."

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/total-covid-19-infections-in-thailand-passed-the-100000-mark-today/

 

Now today, there is an update indicating an increase in cases and a number of deaths in the area associated with this cluster:

 

"Let's edit the information about the press conference on 16 [May]. 64 cases cluster infection, Ratchaburi hospital and Ban Pong hospital as follows.

• Ratchaburi hospital has 4 dead.

• Ban Pong hospital. No fatalities."

 

https://www.facebook.com/thaimoph/posts/310482927228284

 

 

 

26 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Instead of posting nonsense, please tell us where the wave is increasing.

Let me spell out what we have learnt in the last few days:

 

Where possible the government restrict reported case numbers by restricting testing. There are a lot of cases in Bangkok because that is where all the testing is happening.

 

We have just discovered that if the government is forced to do testing in a specific area (eg prisons) then we start to see the true extent. Now extrapolate that out and ask yourself what if they were forced to do mass testing in Selapum, or Yasathorn, or Pichit or any other Nakhon Nowhere? What would we see then? The answer is we would see the grim truth as we have just seen with the prisons.

 

Ok I will give you a chance. Tell us the rate of testing in those provinces where you believe the number of cases is low. And tell us if the testing was random.

32 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

outside of prison infections, the wave peaked about 2 weeks ago. It’s possible that mass testing in clusters will generate a new peak, but it’s obvious that growth of the epidemic is not exponential.

When was the >2,800 number. Couple of wks ago? Today almost 2,800 (outside prisoner positives). Twin Peaks. 

1 hour ago, dcsw53 said:

Proves that statistics given by the Thai government are not worth the paper they are written on. How many other cases of falsification and sweeping bad news under the carpet are there ? Temples and orphanages next ?

Your evidence of this is....?

I would suggst that the vast majority of prisoners were/are asymptomatic and it has escaped detection for a long time - just as happened in the martkets in Samut Sakorn. 

Follow the death count to get an idea of the extent of the problem, or are they sweeping deaths under the carpet too? 

31 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Bangkok's governor on Sunday issued an order for the province extending the new restrictions allowing limited sit-down dining in restaurants until May 31, but making no other changes to other ongoing restrictions.

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/prbangkok/posts/3491105567655706

 

I think that the Governor has not informed the BIB, because they have informed the business owners that everything can be sold subject to the receipt of a bulging brown paper envelope.

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

- Chiang Mai: 3,929 out of 6,469"

 

 

If the number reported above for new prison infections in Chiang Mai is accurate, that single total almost matches the total number of 3,979 COVID cases previously reported in Chiang Mai province since start of the current third wave outbreak at the beginning of April:

 

The daily numbers for Chiang Mai province (not including any prison cases) had been in the 10-20 per day range for the entire past week through yesterday/Sunday:

 

 

8 minutes ago, Marvin Hagler said:

Let me spell out what we have learnt in the last few days:

 

Where possible the government restrict reported case numbers by restricting testing. There are a lot of cases in Bangkok because that is where all the testing is happening.

 

We have just discovered that if the government is forced to do testing in a specific area (eg prisons) then we start to see the true extent. Now extrapolate that out and ask yourself what if they were forced to do mass testing in Selapum, or Yasathorn, or Pichit or any other Nakhon Nowhere? What would we see then? The answer is we would see the grim truth as we have just seen with the prisons.

 

Ok I will give you a chance. Tell us the rate of testing in those provinces where you believe the number of cases is low. And tell us if the testing was random.

LOL, so go to sime up country village and do mass testing and you will find thousands of cases? You are insane. There is NO comparison between a crowded village and an issan village. Ask members in local villages here if they are seeing hundreds of cases of covid. 

34 minutes ago, kynikoi said:

Well, after you strip out 6.8k from prison/s numbers look consistent at about 2k per day. It's something...

 

Probably maximum ability to test per day is 2k*

lol they are only doing 2K tests a day huh. Provide your evidence. 

28 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

The last time you said the wave peaked and its over. What happened to that prediction?

 

All your doing now is stating the obvious that the more you test in clusters the more likely hood of a new peak forming. Have you found your missing logic at last. Well done.

 

I do agree on not calling this exponential growth, that term is redundant now, the new norm is "explosive growth" in the prisons, its like a rocket ship to the moon, strap up!

The exponential growth ended a few weeks ago, not counting the prisons. 

We all know the Thai government took their eye off the ball

Concentrating on giving the  Tourist areas priority,

vaccines first 

Get the Tourist back ????

Then comes the news about the Prisons,  migrant work camp areas, slums and so on ????

Whats next  ?

16 minutes ago, Marvin Hagler said:

Let me spell out what we have learnt in the last few days:

 

Where possible the government restrict reported case numbers by restricting testing. There are a lot of cases in Bangkok because that is where all the testing is happening.

 

We have just discovered that if the government is forced to do testing in a specific area (eg prisons) then we start to see the true extent. Now extrapolate that out and ask yourself what if they were forced to do mass testing in Selapum, or Yasathorn, or Pichit or any other Nakhon Nowhere? What would we see then? The answer is we would see the grim truth as we have just seen with the prisons.

 

Ok I will give you a chance. Tell us the rate of testing in those provinces where you believe the number of cases is low. And tell us if the testing was random.

Chonburi. 

 

About 1,000 tests a day. More than half is random.  Currently a 4% positivity rate. 

5 minutes ago, DavisH said:

lol they are only doing 2K tests a day huh. Provide your evidence. 

Agree.think they do 2000 in Pattaya alone

15 minutes ago, DavisH said:

Your evidence of this is....?

I would suggst that the vast majority of prisoners were/are asymptomatic and it has escaped detection for a long time - just as happened in the martkets in Samut Sakorn. 

Follow the death count to get an idea of the extent of the problem, or are they sweeping deaths under the carpet too? 

You make an interesting point I'm not sure you were intending. The asymptomatic bit is info fed from the govt. and it's up to you if you believe them or not. The interesting bit is about asymptomatic escaping attention because no testing was done. What does this tell you about the rest of Thailand and the almost certainty that thousads or tens of thousands are walking around undetected because they like the prisoners were not and have not been tested.

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

Kalsain went from 0 to 96 with 1 death following Songkran. This occured across Thailand. Do you not remember Covid now in all provinces. Almost 100% increase in Kalasin but I guess you know best.

The lengths people will go and mental hoops that they'll jump through just so they don't have to say the words, "you know what?  I was wrong"

7 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The exponential growth ended a few weeks ago, not counting the prisons. 

Also not counting the workers camps in Bangkok. 86% explosion in positivity rates. However lets gloss over the prisions and camps. Makes the numbers so much better for you

 

Hows your last prediction doing?

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

So all of those provinces which never had a case until Songkran, did not obtain even one case over the Songkran period, is that what your trying to say.  Better re-think that one.

 

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Not that many cases in the provinces after Songkran.

I live in Sakon Nakhon and have been following the trend here. All of the cases (98 so far) emanate from visitors or returnees from the central region and all of them have been contained. For a population of a little over a million, that's a pretty low figure.

 

And that trend seems to be fairly consistent around all of the provinces. Here's a snapshot from May 16th. One can go back and find that this is fairly typical.

 

Western region:  100

North East:             70

Eastern region:     119

North:                      30

Southern region:  127

 

And then

 

Central region:  1,825

 

This flare up is all Bangkok centric with the regions only contributing a very small proportion. You'll find the source of my statistics here.

 

And restrictions are being eased!  It makes no common sense to place restrictions when numbers are low and to ease them when numbers are high!  School people its where common sense can begin, but one must attend and do thier work.

8 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Chonburi. 

 

About 1,000 tests a day. More than half is random.  Currently a 4% positivity rate. 

Any other provinces? A sample case of one is completely irrelevant (not withstanding that 1,000 cases per day is pathetically low during an outbreak). What about Roi Et? What about Nakhon Sawan? What about Lopburi?

2 hours ago, Marvin Hagler said:

Can the rose coloured glasses brigade please step forward and tell us all how it was that Thailand avoided the Songkran surge.

 

Also all those people that told us about the spicy diet and warm weather fending off Covid. 
 

Please, come forwards and explain to us your wisdom.

The "sky is falling" brigade has said since the beginning that the numbers of cases is being under reported, will you now say they are being "over reported"? Your central thesis throughout has been the government figures can't be trusted...so you're kinda in a pickle now. 

6 minutes ago, Moonlover said:

 

I live in Sakon Nakhon and have been following the trend here. All of the cases (98 so far) emanate from visitors or returnees from the central region and all of them have been contained. For population of a little over a million, that's a pretty low figure.

 

And that trend seems to be fairly consistent around all of the provinces. Here's a snapshot from May 16th. One can go back and find that this is fairly typical.

 

Western region:  100

North East:             70

Eastern region:     119

North:                      30

Southern region:  127

 

And then

 

Central region:  1,825

 

This flare up is all Bangkok centric with the regions only contributing a very small proportion. You'll find the source of my statistics here.

Thank you.

 

How many tests were conducted in those provinces please?

6 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Also not counting the workers camps in Bangkok. 86% explosion in positivity rates. However lets gloss over the prisions and camps. Makes the numbers so much better for you

 

Hows your last prediction doing?

Soon enough the powers that be and certain people here will be separating and discounting the cases in front line workers, athletes , those who potentially caught it while waiting in line for a vaccine, and then people in the slums

 

Within a few weeks the only cases that will matter are the farangs walking the streets in Nana and Pattaya, and since they'll never admit how they got it, boom! We're down to 0 cases!