Gloom and Doom, revisited.

[adammike]

11 minutes ago, rott said:

Thank you, why couldn't your mate give a simple answer like that. 

So is the whole world taking an unproven theory as a scientific objective.?

So the only basis for the claim of 70% vaccinated giving herd immunity is the claim itself. That is what I understand you to be saying. 

That's what I understand,though it's not even a theory just a concept that's touted as scientific but it's probably more like a political objective.

[polpott]

3 hours ago, TaaSaparot said:

 

Seriously?

 

I have already written off 2022-2023 high season.

 

And this time last year I was being laughed at.

Unfortunately, you're still being laughed at. No reason to write off the 22/23 season. Could still see a number of tourists returning to Pattaya by Christmas.

[kwilco]

2 hours ago, rott said:

Thank you, why couldn't your mate give a simple answer like that. 

So is the whole world taking an unproven theory as a scientific objective.?

So the only basis for the claim of 70% vaccinated giving herd immunity is the claim itself. That is what I understand you to be saying. 

Pure rubbish you dont even seem to understand what a scientific theory is. Herd immunity by infection with Covid would have involved 100s of 1000s of deaths....many mory than already clocked up  Herd immunity via vaccine is a totally different thing.

I'm surprised that after well over a year, people are so ill informed...

[cclub75]

"Joke: In the "great depression" 1929 there was this lady in New York asking a bystander"

 

You forgot to tell that the Great Depression ended... thanks to the Second World War...

 

The idea that we have touched "rock bottom" yet, is just... a wish.

 

Look at Chile : mass vaccination. 60 % received 1 dose. 46 % 2 doses.

 

And ?

 

New lockdown of Santiago, the capital and around (8 millions people) (the last lockdown was end of march).

 

Source BBC : https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57436861

 

And guess what ? They use... the vaccine from... Sinovac (source : China) (and some Pfizer and AstraZeneca).

 

Thailand uses... Sinovac...

Edited June 11, 2021 by cclub75

[adammike]

1 hour ago, kwilco said:

Pure rubbish you dont even seem to understand what a scientific theory is. Herd immunity by infection with Covid would have involved 100s of 1000s of deaths....many mory than already clocked up  Herd immunity via vaccine is a totally different thing.

I'm surprised that after well over a year, people are so ill informed...

But there is no vaccine that stops people getting Covid! And I speak from experience,I got Covid after my first jab.Ive now had the second one.The vaccinations work at minimizing the symptoms and keeping hospitals and health service workers from total collapse but they don't give immunity.Nobodys safe untill everybody is safe.

[rott]

2 hours ago, kwilco said:

Pure rubbish you dont even seem to understand what a scientific theory is. Herd immunity by infection with Covid would have involved 100s of 1000s of deaths....many mory than already clocked up  Herd immunity via vaccine is a totally different thing.

I'm surprised that after well over a year, people are so ill informed...

You are the only one who has mentioned herd immunity by infection, if you look again I have only ever queried how 70% vaccinated becomes 100% immune. 

I wasn't rejecting it I just did not understand how it worked. Your only reaction is to lash out with insults rather than say you don't understand either. Apparently nobody does. 

[Leaver]

15 hours ago, kwilco said:

You need to think a bit - people who say "it's a fact" etc need to be ignored, it is a poor argument tool. - this could be reflexive.

 

1 + 1 = 2.

 

Fact, or not?

[faraday]

1 minute ago, Leaver said:

 

1 + 1 = 2.

 

Fact, or not?

Depends who you ask....

 

????????

[jacko45k]

19 hours ago, Leaver said:

Plenty of articles on the internet.  Doctors have suggested the minimum be 65%, but countries should aim for higher, like 75% to 80% of the population to be vaccinated.

UK recently claiming with the more contagious Delta variant which is 3/4 of the new UK cases has upped the herd immunity number to 80%

[TaaSaparot]

5 hours ago, adammike said:

Nobodys safe untill everybody is safe.

 

This seems to have been changed to Nobodys safe until the world is safe.

 

Unfortunately, Africa is at 1% vaccinated.

[kwilco]

7 hours ago, rott said:

You are the only one who has mentioned herd immunity by infection, if you look again I have only ever queried how 70% vaccinated becomes 100% immune. 

I wasn't rejecting it I just did not understand how it worked. Your only reaction is to lash out with insults rather than say you don't understand either. Apparently nobody does. 

You are making observations without observation or any background check - after over a year I find this a rather puzzling way to enter a discussion - without any knowledge.

Herd immunity can be gained through a combination of vaccination and infection - in UK some age groups are close to this already......you realise that many people have symptomless infections and go undetected....subsequent checks show up antibodies.

ou seem to be trying to dumb it down by falsely dichotomysing

[kwilco]

7 hours ago, adammike said:

But there is no vaccine that stops people getting Covid! And I speak from experience,I got Covid after my first jab.Ive now had the second one.The vaccinations work at minimizing the symptoms and keeping hospitals and health service workers from total collapse but they don't give immunity.Nobodys safe untill everybody is safe.

No-one has ever suggested that - most vaccines are about 90% effective around 4 weeks after the second booster.

Individual personal experience is anecdotal evidence and not really worth bothering with.

 

[Desmondo69]

On 6/4/2021 at 4:58 PM, swissie said:

As I mentioned, it all depends on the pace of vaccinations. In Europe we are now vaccinating at a record pace. With the result that "new infections" are dropping like a stone. A mathematical phenomenon called "exponential decay" is taking place. Soon, even Thailand will get is't "vaccination act" together.

Currently an international Vaccination-Certificate is in the making. Can't see Thailand not accepting this certificate when most other tourist destinations do. Once this Quarantaine obstacle is removed, BKK-Airport will be very busy again, in no time at all.
But again, the pace of vaccinations is the (only) deciding factor. After that, all other factors will fall into place. Even in Pattaya.

Yes.. Things always move fast here!!!   Only thing that is fast is Nong getting home to do nothing

[swissie]

Well again, (and in a nutshell) it all hinges on the speed of how fast "the masses" can be vaccinated. All else is speculation, temporary guesswork on how fast the virus mutates and cumulating in the fine art of reading Tea-Leaves in the end.

Now, that the general consensus leans toward vaccinating all of the 7.5 Billion earthlings, based on "equality" ( how noble), it would mean that for many years to come, due to the lack of adequate vaccine doses available, there will not be any truly "virus-free" zones.

Future conversation between a Farang and a Thai Lady at the bar:

Farang: "I am a little bit vaccinated". Thai Lady: "I am a little bit pregnant". Funny? Not really.

 

But as long as the limited vaccines would have to be admistered/distributed to all the 7.5 billion earthlings, we will all end up "a little pregnant" in the best of cases. Condemning the "worldwide vaccination campaighn" to failure, before it even started.

Rats! This "worldwide vaccination campaighn" could really slow down the "rebirth" of Pattaya. If nothing else.

 

[Leaver]

On 6/13/2021 at 11:50 PM, swissie said:

Well again, (and in a nutshell) it all hinges on the speed of how fast "the masses" can be vaccinated. All else is speculation, temporary guesswork on how fast the virus mutates and cumulating in the fine art of reading Tea-Leaves in the end.

Now, that the general consensus leans toward vaccinating all of the 7.5 Billion earthlings, based on "equality" ( how noble), it would mean that for many years to come, due to the lack of adequate vaccine doses available, there will not be any truly "virus-free" zones.

Future conversation between a Farang and a Thai Lady at the bar:

Farang: "I am a little bit vaccinated". Thai Lady: "I am a little bit pregnant". Funny? Not really.

 

But as long as the limited vaccines would have to be admistered/distributed to all the 7.5 billion earthlings, we will all end up "a little pregnant" in the best of cases. Condemning the "worldwide vaccination campaighn" to failure, before it even started.

Rats! This "worldwide vaccination campaighn" could really slow down the "rebirth" of Pattaya. If nothing else.

 

 

By now you would have read the Thai PM's statement that Thailand is opening up on the 1st October. 

 

It will be interesting to see if that indeed happens, and if it does, how long the borders remain open for, if 70% of Thai's have not been fully vaccinated before that date.  

[TaaSaparot]

5 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

By now you would have read the Thai PM's statement that Thailand is opening up on the 1st October. 

 

Never said that.

[Leaver]

18 hours ago, TaaSaparot said:

 

Never said that.

 

Correct.  The date is the 14th October.  A typo.  

[Harsh Jones]

On 6/13/2021 at 9:50 AM, swissie said:

Well again, (and in a nutshell) it all hinges on the speed of how fast "the masses" can be vaccinated. All else is speculation, temporary guesswork on how fast the virus mutates and cumulating in the fine art of reading Tea-Leaves in the end.

Now, that the general consensus leans toward vaccinating all of the 7.5 Billion earthlings, based on "equality" ( how noble), it would mean that for many years to come, due to the lack of adequate vaccine doses available, there will not be any truly "virus-free" zones.

Future conversation between a Farang and a Thai Lady at the bar:

Farang: "I am a little bit vaccinated". Thai Lady: "I am a little bit pregnant". Funny? Not really.

 

But as long as the limited vaccines would have to be admistered/distributed to all the 7.5 billion earthlings, we will all end up "a little pregnant" in the best of cases. Condemning the "worldwide vaccination campaighn" to failure, before it even started.

Rats! This "worldwide vaccination campaighn" could really slow down the "rebirth" of Pattaya. If nothing else.

 

This thread was started in early June. Before we went full delta. You sorta have the right idea but the call was early. Things have made new lows since.

 

The problem with the 1929 analogy is that they weren't dropping interest rates and printing money like mad during the downtrend. So this has created a dichotomy today. Things like condo prices and good real estate, has actually risen in price during Covid.  And for the things that have fallen, they haven't fallen enough to match the cashflow setback on the ground. Its for this reason why I don't personally like the idea of jumping on assets right now. Governments and monetary authorities are stepping on the scales and it makes "buying at the bottom" nearly an impossible task.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 6/4/2021 at 2:25 AM, swissie said:

Therefore: To start any business venture in Pattaya would be NOW. And not 6 months from now when everybody (including his uncle) has reached the conclusion "that the worst is over". Because by then, prices for viable businesses will already have increased by 30% compared to todays "rock-bottom" prices.

No issue for me these days. But if I were 40 years younger, it would be. Definitely!  Boom and bust. Buy low, sell high.

You don't say what business you would buy. Perhaps you can tell us what, in your opinion will do well?

[CharlieH]

Petty adolescent bickering exchange removed.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 6/14/2021 at 4:50 AM, swissie said:

But as long as the limited vaccines would have to be admistered/distributed to all the 7.5 billion earthlings,

More likely 9 billion earthlings before it's over.

 

IMO our lords and masters have made an error in beating the "everyone must be vaccinated" drum for things to "get back to normal" though I have zero idea of what "normal" would look like as I don't think there has ever been a "normal"- everything changes, all the time.

They now have to attempt to vaccinate everyone on the planet, or IMO look foolish.

However, given that many countries can't afford to do so ( for many reasons ) it means that someone else has to pay for it, and no prizes for guessing who that will be. I hope everyone noted that the vaccine companies are increasing prices.

[BritManToo]

21 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

You don't say what business you would buy. Perhaps you can tell us what, in your opinion will do well?

I'd buy a COVID vaccine business.

Maybe a m/c deliver and jab to your own home business.

Edited August 12, 2021 by BritManToo

[Leaver]

On 8/12/2021 at 12:20 PM, BritManToo said:

I'd buy a COVID vaccine business.

Maybe a m/c deliver and jab to your own home business.

 

I would develop an app for Thai hookers to work off, all over Thailand, only for in house "massage" of course.   Tinder, but for payment, in Thailand.  ????  

[swissie]

1) I have always made it a point, that everything hinges on the speed of vaccinations (worldwide). Has been very dissapointing as the pace has been much slower than I expected.

2) As "Harsh Jones" has quoted above, the Central-Banks have flooded the financial system with liquidity, thus preventing any healthy "corrections". With the result, that true  "rock-bottom prices" have not materialised. Not in Thailand nor anywhere else.

To answer "thaibeachlover's" question, as to what business I would invest in: Unless the pace of global vaccinations increases dramatically, I would not want to invest in any business at this time. Not in Thailand nor anywhere else.

The only thing I remain invested in is Copper & Nickel.

[Leaver]

3 hours ago, swissie said:

1) I have always made it a point, that everything hinges on the speed of vaccinations (worldwide). Has been very dissapointing as the pace has been much slower than I expected.

2) As "Harsh Jones" has quoted above, the Central-Banks have flooded the financial system with liquidity, thus preventing any healthy "corrections". With the result, that true  "rock-bottom prices" have not materialised. Not in Thailand nor anywhere else.

To answer "thaibeachlover's" question, as to what business I would invest in: Unless the pace of global vaccinations increases dramatically, I would not want to invest in any business at this time. Not in Thailand nor anywhere else.

The only thing I remain invested in is Copper & Nickel.

 

Didn't you say, "the time to invest in now?"  

[swissie]

On 8/14/2021 at 4:48 PM, Leaver said:

 

Didn't you say, "the time to invest in now?"  

I wrote this at a time when I had reason to believe that the global vaccination campaighn would be a success. Instead it turned into a debacle.

[Leaver]

12 minutes ago, swissie said:

I wrote this at a time when I had reason to believe that the global vaccination campaighn would be a success. Instead it turned into a debacle.

 

So, if you were here and "invested" at that time, you would be stuck with rent to pay and no customers for the next 12 months, probably on a 3 year lease.  

 

Lucky you didn't invest.  ????  

[BritManToo]

On 8/13/2021 at 6:52 PM, Leaver said:

 

I would develop an app for Thai hookers to work off, all over Thailand, only for in house "massage" of course.   Tinder, but for payment, in Thailand.  ????  

Maybe we could combine our ideas,

A sexy nurse in uniform on a m/c to call round and give you a jab, then gently 'massage you' for an hour while waiting to see any negative response to the jab.

[Leaver]

6 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Maybe we could combine our ideas,

A sexy nurse in uniform on a m/c to call round and give you a jab, then gently 'massage you' for an hour while waiting to see any negative response to the jab.

Live streaming studios could be another good business here, post covid. 

 

Rent a few cheap 4000 baht a month rooms, put some fairy lights in, good wifi internet and webcams.  Rent them out to bar girls per hour.  They will be running 24/7, across different time zones.  

    

Edited August 16, 2021 by Leaver

[rott]

On 6/12/2021 at 5:55 AM, kwilco said:

Pure rubbish you dont even seem to understand what a scientific theory is. Herd immunity by infection with Covid would have involved 100s of 1000s of deaths....many mory than already clocked up  Herd immunity via vaccine is a totally different thing.

I'm surprised that after well over a year, people are so ill informed...

To the snidey mouth one who knows everything, how is herd immunity by vaccine now.? 

And what level of vaccination is now required to achieve it.?

70%

80%

90%

91%

 

If only there were more people about who know everything.